J A N U A R Y

2 0 0 3

W I N T E R

2003|2004

OUTLOOK
A RECOVERY
FOR ALL TO SEE
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
November 29, 2002

T

he U.S. economy is softening as
the year-end approaches. It hasn’t
been much of a recovery so far,
and decision makers of all stripes are
still sitting on their hands, waiting for
some good news. Unfortunately, there
has been a shortage of that in recent
weeks. Arizona’s economy is no longer
declining, but there is no recovery
evident as yet. Consumers are nearing
exhaustion, businesses are still laying
off workers and postponing investment decisions, and state and local
governments are slashing budgets with
abandon. Nevertheless, the economy
should avoid a double dip, and
recovery should resume with renewed
vigor as the New Year unfolds.

It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Since
last winter, economists have been marveling
at the apparent resilience of the American
economy. Most believe that the recession
ended in December of 2001 and, given a
strong advance in real GDP in the first quarter, issued forecasts that the economy would
be on a tear by mid-year. What they couldn’t
foresee, of course, were the corporate and
accounting scandals that sent investors fleeing from equity markets and CEOs fixating on
financial and accounting issues rather than
growing their companies. The stock market
continued to decline over the summer,
pushing losses over the two-year period
to one-quarter of its value. Add the sniper
attacks in Washington, the looming war with
Iraq, and continuation of terrorist attacks
around the world such as in Bali, and the
result is a recovery that continues to struggle
as it tries to find traction.
Consumers shouldered the burden of
carrying the economy and, in the aftermath
of September 11, were spurred to do so by
patriotism and the realization that they should
grab all of the good life while it lasted (and
while they still could, as it was obvious that
the world had changed). Their cause was
aided by a remarkable marketing effort on
the part of auto makers, who were able to
convince buyers that this was a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy a car at zero percent
interest, and by retailers who slashed prices
in an effort to get customers to return to the
malls. Low interest rates, which brought a
wave of mortgage refinancing, gave consumers
a new source of cash to spend. The forecast

I N S I D E

Outlook

2003 ARIZONA

2003
2004

STATISTICAL ABSTRACT .........5
FORECAST TABLES ................6
ECONOMIC INDICATORS ........7

I S S U E

as 2002 began foresaw the consumer keeping
the economy afloat until business spending
on new plant and equipment kicked in during
the second half. It hasn’t, and consumers are
nearing exhaustion.
As we approach year-end, current data
supports the conclusion that the economy
is no longer declining (although it could
be several more months before the National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER),
the official arbiter of business cycle turning
points, declares the recession officially
over). However, there has been precious
little growth in the private sector (federal
spending has been the engine of growth)
and the economy has entered a “soft spot”
as year-end approaches. Nascent signs of
recovery in some manufacturing sectors are
petering out. And, it is payback time for auto
sales, which has been running at unsustainable levels. Housing markets face the same
likelihood in the very near future. With growth
running well below the economy’s potential
and unemployment still rising, it feels like
we’re are still in a recession. The term
economists use is “growth recession.”
The coincident indicator index, the best
representation of the overall U.S. economy,
shows how little the economy has grown
during this recovery (Exhibit 1). The shaded
boxes mark periods of national recession.
It is comprised of four components: jobs,
industrial production, sales, and income.
All but the jobs components are growing,
and both incomes and sales have regained
previous peak values. The absence of job
growth resembles what we experienced
following the 1991-92 recession. Jobs are
the primary measure for state and local
economies and it was this component that
NBER weighted heavily in choosing April
2001 as the beginning of the recession.
Editors of Business Week describe
Americans’ mood as “uncertain of the future,
weary of the present, and unsure about the
path back to the optimism and prosperity
of recent past.” They fear that measures to
counteract terrorism and business malfeasance are insufficient. Younger workers,

ELLER COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

T UCSON, ARIZONA

EXHIBIT 1
Little Growth in the
Nation’s Economy So Far

EXHIBIT 2
Jobs are Flat
Non-Farm Employment, Arizona (seasonally adjusted)

Coincident Index (Source: Conference Board)
millions
2.4

120

2.2

2.0
100
1.8
1.6
80

September 2002

September 2002

1.4
1.2

60

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

many of whom were highly courted and
handsomely paid by high-tech companies,
find themselves out of work today and wonder
if the “good life” was a mere blip. Older
workers approaching retirement have seen
their retirement funds shrivel. No one seems
willing to bet on the future—investors sit on
the sidelines and CEOs postpone new investment. Everyone hesitates, hoping for the best,
fearing the worst, and feeling quite vulnerable.
On purely economic grounds, the overbearing pessimism is not warranted. During
the past year, real GDP has grown by more
than three percent! Most countries would
thrill to have such growth. Moreover, the main
ingredient of prosperity, i.e., productivity,
is growing at the fastest clip in decades.
Ironically, the large gains in productivity
are temporarily postponing the need for
additional workers. The good news continues.
Consumers are still buying, although the mix
has changed: a year ago it was autos while
other categories suffered. Today, general
merchandise and apparel, TVs, electronics
and most everything else are selling while
autos slide. Business inventories relative to
sales are near record lows, which argues for
restocking soon. Housing markets continue
to soar as disillusioned investors put their
money into real estate. We can only hope
that the high-tech financial bubble does not
find its way into real estate.
PAGE TWO

96

98

00

02

1.0

80

82

84

RECENT EVIDENCE
FOR ARIZONA
Of the four components that comprise
the national coincident index, industrial
production is not available for states or metro
areas, and the only available sales measure
is for the much narrower retail component.
For the data that’s on hand, Arizona’s economy
mirrors that of the nation.
First, consider non-farm employment.
Exhibit 2 shows that aggregate jobs are
no longer declining but neither are they
growing. With data through September, the
number of jobs remains 20,000 below the
same month one year earlier, a decline of
slightly less than one percent. The flatness
compares to the first year of recovery following the 1990-91 recession and contrasts
to the rapid surge in 1983.
The only industry divisions to show employment growth during the twelve months ending
in September are retail (with a very small
gain) and government (primarily due to the
federal and schools components). All the
other industries remain below year-earlier
levels. Notably, manufacturing and construction are both still declining.
Arizona consumers have done their part
(patriotism flourishes here too!), although
the aggregate sales numbers have not been
quite as strong as nationwide. With data
through July, retail sales have been declining

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

since the beginning of 2002 (Exhibit 3).
Losses are small, however, compared to the
1981-82 recession. The major risk going
forward is a consumer retrenchment, for
that would precipitate another down leg
in this cycle.
Sales have received support from personal
income, which has not declined during this
recession. Real personal income less transfer
payments has simply flattened out, as job
creation stalled and incentive forms of compensation (stock options and bonuses) dried
up. Incomes have continued to rise because
of wage gains (which reflect advances in
productivity), and from growth in non-wage
components (such as property income).
During the past year, real aggregate personal
income has increased by 2.2% (Exhibit 4).
Other measures generally remain weak.
Consumer confidence in Arizona, reported by
the Behavior Research Center under sponsorship from Stockton Capital Management and
Trust of Scottsdale, slipped in the fourth
quarter survey to the lowest level since the end
of 1993. Help wanted remains at recession
levels, and the Manpower survey of hiring
intentions for the first quarter are weak.
Bankruptcy filings are running 20-25%
higher than a year ago, led by the chapter
7 liquidation category. Both hotel receipts
and airline passengers remain below yearago levels, indicating residual weakness in
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

EXHIBIT 3
Sales have Softened but Remain HIgh

EXHIBIT 4
Real Income Growing Slowly

Real Retail Sales, Arizona (2001 dollars, SAAR, smoothed)

Personal Income Less Transfers, Arizona (2001 dollars, SAAR)

billions of dollars
40

billions of dollars
125

36
105
32

28

85

24
65
20

16

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

tourism, a large and important component
in Arizona’s economy.
Both Phoenix and Tucson metros share the
current malaise. Neither is doing significantly
better than the other. Both report employment
down roughly one percent over the past year,
and retail sales growth on a 12-month versus
12-month basis near zero, although sales
ticked up a bit in Tucson during the past
couple of months. Residential permits for
single family remain at high levels in both,
but have moved significantly higher in metro
Phoenix in recent months, due in part to
pending increases in impact fees in Avondale.

THE OUTLOOK
We expect the current funk to fade in
coming months and the economy to gain
momentum. The economy will be weak
in the fourth quarter but strengthen as the
New Year unfolds.
In the coming months, we can expect the
data to improve markedly, if for no other
reason than current numbers will be compared to the depressed post-9/11 period of
a year ago. Residential permits for October
in metro Phoenix soared by nearly 45%,
according to the Phoenix Housing Market
Letter published by R.L. Brown. The number
of airline passengers at Tucson International
airport for September was 29.0% higher.
Quarterly reports of retirement accounts
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

96

98

00

02

45

80

82

84

that will arrive in early January should show
substantial improvement, assuming gains
in financial markets in recent weeks hold
through the end of the year. Other measures
will show large gains as well, and even if the
measure has not fully recovered lost ground,
the appearance of improvement will lift spirits.
This should be evident by the first quarter.
ON PURELY
ECONOMIC GROUNDS,
THE OVERBEARING PESSIMISM
IS NOT WARRANTED.
DURING THE PAST YEAR,
REAL GDP HAS GROWN
BY MORE THAN
THREE PERCENT!

Additional reasons to expect improvement
include:
• Federal fiscal policy remains highly
stimulative.
• Monetary policy is accommodative.
• The recent wave of mortgage refinancing
provides consumers with additional cash
to spend.

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

• Accounting shocks are fading and the
restating of company earnings is nearly
complete.
• Profits and sales are improving so businesses will need to rebuild inventories
from very low current levels. Investment
in new plants and equipment will follow.
• Computers, networks, and software that
were purchased during 1998-99 in anticipation of Y2K are nearing obsolescence
and need to be replaced in 2003. The
same is true for many cell phones.
• Productivity remains strong, which
allows companies to increase workers’
pay without raising prices.
• Inflation will continue near two percent,
and there is little chance of either
deflation or accelerating inflation.
An early strike and favorable results in Iraq
also would remove that major uncertainty.
The forecast calls for the nation’s economy,
as measured by real GDP, to grow by three
percent in 2003, after a 2.4% increase in
2002. The following year should be even
better, registering a four percent gain.
Business fixed investment and inventory
rebuilding will join consumption and government spending to provide more balanced
growth. Exports also will contribute to
growth. Residential fixed investment will
be a modest drag.
PAGE THREE

EXHIBIT 5
Job Growth will Resume

EXHIBIT 6
Sales will Recover Also

Non-Farm Job Growth, Arizona

Retail Sales Growth, Arizona

% change
10

% change
15

Nominal
Real

8

10

6
5
4
0
2
-5

0

-2

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

-10

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

EXHIBIT 7
Population Growth Follows Job Growth

EXHIBIT 8
Incomes Have Held Up Well

Annual Changes in Population, Arizona

Personal Income Growth, Arizona

000s
200

% change
16

98

00

02

04

06

00

02

04

06

Nominal

14

Real

12

150

10
8
100
6
4
50

2
0
-2

0
80

•
•
•
•

85

90

95

Risks to the outlook include:
Retrenchment by consumers lasting
until at least mid-year.
Postponement of recovery in job markets,
which would further depress consumers.
Development (and popping) of an asset
bubble in housing.
Deflation, which would render fed policy
ineffective, since they would be unable to
produce negative real interest rates.
PAGE FOUR

00

05

80

82

84

86

• War with Iraq could go badly and
retaliation by terrorist groups on
American soil could shake Americans.
• Many of our trading partners are currently
in recessions that could deepen.
Any of these events could postpone renewed
growth or plunge the economy into a second
down leg. Chances of a double-dip recession
are at most 10%.

88

90

92

94

96

98

FORECASTS FOR ARIZONA
AND TWO METROS
Tables 1-3 contain forecasts for Metro
Tucson, Metro Phoenix and Arizona, respectively. The following paragraphs summarize
the Arizona forecast numbers. Neither metro
is expected to deviate significantly from the
pattern of recovery.
As forecast Table 3 shows, Arizona’s
job machine, after sputtering in 2002, will
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

resume in 2003 by adding 45,000 new jobs
(a two percent increase). The following year
brings twice that many (Exhibit 5).
Retail sales also will improve, registering
a gain of over four percent next year and 5.7%
the following (Exhibit 6). This is modest
compared to prior recoveries, since there
is little pent-up demand presently.
Population growth will slow as a little over
100,000 new residents are added in 2003
(an increase of almost two percent). Population normally lags behind employment
growth so the slowdown reflects the lack
of job growth in 2002. In 2004, population
will increase by 125,000 (or 2.7%). See
Exhibit 7.
Personal income is forecast to increase
by 5.1% next year and 7.2% in 2004. This
reflects an acceleration of wages (as bonuses reappear and as stock options regain
some value) as well as renewed job growth.
The annual wage per worker will rise to
$38,200 by 2004 (Exhibit 8).
Even though risks are high and everyone
hesitates, the economy should gain strength
in 2003 and the recovery portion of the
current business cycle will become visible
to all. Although state and local government
will continue to struggle to provide services
vis-a-vis declining budgets, most private sector industries will improve as the year unfolds.
What industries will be the winners in the
next expansion? Software? Biotechnology?
Optics? It’s time to place your bets. ■
S P O N S O R S

Arizona Department of Commerce
Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One Arizona
CB Richard Ellis
City of Mesa
City of Tucson
Compass Bank
Elliott D. Pollack and Company
KB Home
Merrill Lynch
Northern Trust Bank of Arizona
Pima Association of Governments
Pima County
Salt River Project
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Newspapers
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

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PAGE FIVE

F O R E C A S T

Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

T A B L E S

2001
137313.5
4.8
25811.3
1.9
55421.2
2.1
5319.9
2.9
107.2
2266.3
1.1
384.5
-0.5
164.9
2.1
210.1
-2.4
1881.8
1.4
533.2
1.2
711.1
0.4

2002
143291.1
4.4
26271.8
1.8
55928.2
0.9
5454.2
2.5
67.7
2247.4
-0.8
362.2
-5.8
159.4
-3.3
194
-7.6
1885.2
0.2
537.2
0.7
707.3
-0.5

2003
150549.4
5.1
27085.2
3.1
58288.5
4.2
5558.4
1.9
71.2
2292.3
2
359.1
-0.9
161.6
1.4
188.8
-2.7
1933.2
2.5
547.8
2
736.8
4.2

2004
161338.3
7.2
28387
4.8
61477.6
5.5
5683.5
2.3
98.4
2381
3.9
362.3
0.9
160.8
-0.5
193
2.2
2018.7
4.4
570.8
4.2
783.5
6.3

2005
175570.2
8.8
30080.5
6
66369.8
8
5836.7
2.7
119.4
2488.7
4.5
379.3
4.7
166.6
3.6
204.4
5.9
2109.4
4.5
594.9
4.2
829.7
5.9

2006
191648.9
9.2
31909.8
6.1
71858.3
8.3
6006
2.9
128.9
2598.9
4.4
400
5.5
176.2
5.8
215.7
5.5
2198.9
4.2
623.1
4.7
871.3
5

2007
207772.9
8.4
33642.6
5.4
76998.2
7.2
6175.9
2.8
122.4
2699.9
3.9
415.9
4
184.4
4.6
223.5
3.6
2284
3.9
651.4
4.5
910.7
4.5

Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

2001
93005.2
3
27525.1
-0.1
37876.4
1.6
3378.9
3.1
67.1
1597.4
1
282.9
-1.4
120.7
1.4
159.7
-3.4
1314.5
1.5
382.5
1.9
517.5
-0.1

2002
95597.3
2.8
27625
0.4
38085.6
0.6
3460.5
2.4
48
1583.6
-0.9
273.6
-3.3
118.4
-1.9
152.7
-4.4
1310
-0.3
380.2
-0.6
511.4
-1.2

2003
101088.3
5.7
28602.5
3.5
39884.1
4.7
3534.2
2.1
41.1
1624.6
2.6
272.3
-0.5
119.2
0.7
150.6
-1.4
1352.3
3.2
387.1
1.8
534.7
4.6

2004
108669.3
7.5
29893.3
4.5
42662.7
7
3635.2
2.9
67.7
1688.7
3.9
274
0.6
120.1
0.7
151.4
0.5
1414.7
4.6
400.9
3.6
567.3
6.1

2005
118736.7
9.3
31655.6
5.9
46510.5
9
3750.9
3.2
81.3
1765.6
4.6
284.7
3.9
124.8
4
157.3
3.9
1481
4.7
417.9
4.2
598.7
5.5

2006
129929.8
9.4
33535
5.9
50382.4
8.3
3874.4
3.3
88.6
1845.6
4.5
298.2
4.7
131.4
5.2
164.3
4.4
1547.4
4.5
436.4
4.4
628.8
5

2007
140974.2
8.5
35261.3
5.1
54170.7
7.5
3998
3.2
88.5
1922.3
4.2
309.5
3.8
137.6
4.7
169.4
3.1
1612.8
4.2
455
4.3
659.1
4.8

Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

2001
21010.6
4.4
24133.2
1.9
8655.6
1.8
870.6
2.5
16.2
350.7
0.1
57.2
0.5
21.7
-0.8
33.7
1.7
293.5
0.1
72.1
-0.7
117.7
-0.7

2002
21728.7
3.4
24461.8
1.4
8726.2
0.8
888.3
2
12.5
346.1
-1.3
54.4
-5
21
-3.4
31.8
-5.5
291.7
-0.6
71
-1.5
116.5
-1

2003
23029.3
6
25363.9
3.7
9208.1
5.5
908
2.2
14.3
356.4
3
55.6
2.1
21.3
1.3
32.6
2.3
300.9
3.1
72.2
1.7
122.7
5.4

2004
24702
7.3
26520.5
4.6
9752.8
5.9
931.4
2.6
17.9
371.6
4.3
56.4
1.5
21.5
1
33.1
1.7
315.3
4.8
75.1
3.9
131.4
7.1

2005
26498
7.3
27808.2
4.9
10315
5.8
952.9
2.3
15.8
383.8
3.3
57.3
1.7
22
2.2
33.6
1.6
326.4
3.5
78
3.9
137.3
4.5

2006
28335
6.9
29123
4.7
10892.1
5.6
972.9
2.1
14.2
393.6
2.6
58
1.3
22.4
2
34
1.1
335.6
2.8
81
3.8
141.9
3.3

2007
30201.7
6.6
30408.5
4.4
11427.2
4.9
993.2
2.1
14.2
403.5
2.5
58.7
1.2
22.8
1.8
34.3
1
344.8
2.7
83.7
3.4
146.7
3.3

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Karl Eller Graduate School of Management, College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona
PAGE SIX

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining (Mohave County only)
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JUN
2002

JUL
2002

AUG
2002

SEP
2002

OCT
2002

68,325
48,075
20,250
29.6

70,500
47,725
22,775
32.3

73,050
48,800
24,250
33.2

69,925
48,950
20,975
30.0

67,650
50,450
17,200
25.4

6.5
6.2
7.3
0.8

-1.4
0.8
-8.0
-8.0

40,225
2,775
1,950
1,650
10,300
1,300
10,475
11,775

39,425
2,825
1,875
1,625
10,300
1,300
10,450
11,050

39,875
2,950
1,850
1,600
10,050
1,300
10,200
11,925

40,375
2,950
1,775
1,600
10,200
1,325
10,250
12,275

41,100
2,925
1,775
1,625
10,425
1,375
10,325
12,650

0.5
1.7
-23.7
14.0
-1.2
5.8
2.7
2.2

0.2
0.4
-16.1
8.4
-3.6
1.4
3.9
2.7

92,796
72,295
9,654
10,847
7,462
20,084

79,902
60,338
8,435
11,129
7,780
13,289

84,127
64,560
8,916
10,651
7,570
14,406

85,996
67,556
8,593
9,847
7,111
17,825

...
...
...
...
...
...

6.9
7.1
-1.5
13.6
13.0
2.3

3.6
5.1
5.1
-7.8
9.5
9.8

24,052
13,663
9,224
1,165

25,603
13,909
5,118
6,576

27,107
16,069
7,628
3,410

18,831
13,666
2,674
2,491

41,713
16,482
18,700
6,531

105.9
55.0
339.3
21.6

17.6
20.1
10.5
24.4

130
130

122
122

144
141

142
142

176
146

76.0
46.0

13.3
18.5

78,000
73,650
4,350
5.6

78,525
74,300
4,225
5.4

78,450
74,375
4,075
5.2

78,225
74,075
4,150
5.3

77,475
73,475
4,000
5.2

5.3
4.9
15.1
9.3

5.1
4.4
18.6
12.8

47,400
75
4,750
3,500
2,350
13,950
1,650
11,550
9,575

46,925
75
4,725
3,425
2,375
13,825
1,650
11,375
9,475

48,350
75
4,825
3,375
2,350
13,975
1,675
11,550
10,525

48,425
75
4,975
3,350
2,350
13,950
1,700
11,400
10,625

48,900
75
5,050
3,350
2,425
14,050
1,700
11,525
10,725

3.9
-25
12.8
-2.9
4.3
0.2
11.5
4.5
5.9

0.5
-21.3
-3.6
-2.3
1.1
-0.0
4.6
-0.9
5.3

130,404
98,326
14,345
17,733
12,200
33,155

117,453
84,971
14,472
18,010
12,591
29,708

129,948
95,251
14,089
20,608
14,648
29,884

110,225
81,847
13,795
14,583
10,531
28,737

...
...
...
...
...
...

7.1
7.3
3.9
9.4
8.8
8.1

6.3
9.9
7.0
-12.3
2.8
19.7

31,416
24,128
5,250
2,038

35,964
24,404
10,094
1,466

30,782
24,679
4,187
1,916

33,414
26,420
1,289
5,705

38,106
31,962
967
5,177

-12.4
22.8
-74.4
-62.2

0.2
11.9
59.7
-45.9

222
212

252
186

234
228

291
215

318
258

28.2
7.5

13.6
6.5

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PAGE SEVEN

A R I Z O N A

COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JUN
2002

JUL
2002

AUG
2002

SEP
2002

OCT
2002

41,875
39,525
2,350
5.6

42,600
40,175
2,425
5.7

42,750
40,550
2,200
5.1

42,200
40,125
2,075
4.9

42,300
40,200
2,100
5.0

2.6
2.2
10.5
7.7

3.0
2.3
17.4
14.0

32,325
2,125
850
1,250
7,575
750
8,925
10,850

32,450
2,175
825
1,275
7,525
775
9,075
10,800

32,900
2,175
900
1,250
7,550
775
9,025
11,225

32,825
2,100
900
1,225
7,575
775
8,850
11,400

32,900
2,050
850
1,200
7,700
800
8,800
11,500

-0.9
-4.7
-10.5
-7.7
-2.5
6.7
-1.1
2.2

-0.3
-2.9
-10.4
-2.9
-2.0
0.8
0.4
2.1

59,493
44,926
7,957
6,610
4,548
12,800

68,246
49,618
7,690
10,938
7,647
14,499

63,643
49,625
6,938
7,080
5,032
11,733

59,674
46,048
7,166
6,460
4,665
13,109

...
...
...
...
...
...

4.6
2.9
2.0
22.6
22.0
30.1

4.9
4.5
8.4
4.6
22.7
11.6

10,799
7,858
1,153
1,788

13,688
5,537
7,151
1,000

6,067
4,739
1,038
290

14,854
5,062
4,542
5,250

10,602
5,774
2,900
1,928

-13.4
-4.3
-40.2
41.3

-12.7
-11.9
-3.2
-25.4

78
78

63
63

53
53

50
50

58
58

0.0
0.0

11.1
11.1

13,950
12,175
1,775
12.7

14,150
11,850
2,300
16.3

14,925
12,150
2,775
18.6

14,575
11,850
2,725
18.7

14,775
12,200
2,575
17.4

5.2
9.2
-10.4
-14.8

4.1
3.8
6.6
2.6

12,450
425
750
1,225
4,975
400
1,475
3,200

11,975
425
750
1,175
4,550
400
1,475
3,200

12,250
425
750
1,200
4,450
400
1,475
3,550

12,075
425
725
1,200
4,475
425
1,500
3,325

12,525
425
725
1,225
4,750
450
1,625
3,325

6.8
6.3
-19.4
8.9
11.1
5.9
8.3
7.3

1.6
-0.5
-16.9
2.1
4.1
6.5
-3.9
5.7

26,985
21,429
2,577
2,979
2,050
5,233

26,168
20,546
2,511
3,111
2,175
3,587

27,866
22,112
2,703
3,051
2,169
4,531

24,589
19,361
2,495
2,733
1,974
3,666

...
...
...
...
...
...

2.8
1.4
11.4
5.8
5.2
-9.2

-1.1
1.8
-2.3
-19.1
-4.0
0.0

11,249
9,308
1,941
0

5,150
4,850
0
300

8,656
4,506
3,490
660

6,720
2,740
3,980
0

5,566
5,566
0
0

26.1
33.4
-100.0
...

59.8
41.3
313.2
-86.7

165
35

35
35

31
31

21
21

46
44

64.3
57.1

55.3
18.5

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

PAGE EIGHT

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining (Greenlee County only)
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JUN
2002

JUL
2002

AUG
2002

SEP
2002

OCT
2002

17,550
16,175
1,375
7.8

18,000
16,525
1,475
8.2

18,025
16,675
1,350
7.5

17,650
16,350
1,300
7.4

17,325
16,100
1,225
7.1

0.6
-0.6
19.5
18.8

1.6
-0.2
29.2
27.1

13,525
650
900
875
500
3,125
275
2,800
4,400

13,575
650
850
875
500
3,100
275
2,900
4,425

13,775
650
825
875
475
3,075
275
2,900
4,700

13,675
650
825
850
475
3,100
275
2,850
4,650

13,625
625
800
850
475
3,100
275
2,825
4,675

-2.2
-7.4
-22.0
-10.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.6
3.3

-3.0
-4.5
-15.3
-10.9
0.4
0.2
-4.4
-0.4
-2.4

27,360
19,886
4,426
3,048
2,097
10,112

25,571
18,475
4,029
3,067
2,144
10,078

27,140
19,552
4,302
3,286
2,336
7,758

24,902
18,357
3,725
2,820
2,036
8,676

...
...
...
...
...
...

-4.6
-3.3
-7.2
-8.9
-9.4
-12.3

-3.9
-0.5
-1.8
-24.7
-11.7
-4.4

26,140
4,097
6,582
15,461

10,201
4,366
5,040
795

4,212
3,812
400
0

7,185
2,709
3,726
750

4,699
3,886
813
0

-86.8
52.1
49.4
-100.0

-11.2
6.7
7.4
-34.6

30
30

26
26

26
26

21
21

26
26

36.8
36.8

11.7
11.7

13,550
12,475
1,075
7.9

13,500
12,275
1,225
9.1

13,850
12,725
1,125
8.1

13,875
12,775
1,100
7.9

14,050
12,975
1,075
7.7

3.5
4.0
-2.3
-5.6

-3.1
-3.9
6.7
9.9

9,950
2,125
475
300
200
2,275
200
1,475
2,900

9,725
2,100
450
300
200
2,225
200
1,450
2,800

10,025
2,125
475
300
200
2,250
200
1,475
3,000

10,175
2,125
450
275
200
2,225
200
1,450
3,250

10,275
2,225
450
275
225
2,225
175
1,450
3,250

-0.5
0.0
5.9
-15.4
-10.0
-2.2
-22.2
-7.9
7.4

-6.9
-9.8
-41.6
-8.6
-8.3
-0.1
-8.6
-7.1
-0.8

18,102
15,015
1,438
1,649
1,135
4,159

19,830
15,974
2,243
1,613
1,128
3,224

19,096
16,090
1,304
1,702
1,210
3,926

18,099
15,110
1,354
1,635
1,181
6,809

...
...
...
...
...
...

-3.2
-3.5
-16.4
15.4
14.8
-4.0

-9.6
-9.2
-4.9
-17.6
-3.4
14.2

190
190
0
830

1,087
448
639
6,571

976
476
500
0

266
86
180
468

1,411
1,411
0
0

616.2
616.2
...
-100.0

-18.0
-17.0
-18.4
-40.2

2
2

4
4

6
6

1
1

13
13

550.0
550.0

-15.1
-15.1

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PAGE NINE

A R I Z O N A

APACHE-NAVAJO REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JUN
2002

JUL
2002

AUG
2002

SEP
2002

OCT
2002

53,350
46,075
7,275
13.6

54,425
46,050
8,375
15.4

53,350
47,500
5,850
11.0

52,400
47,275
5,125
9.8

50,900
45,900
5,000
9.8

-0.3
-1.0
6.4
6.7

1.1
1.6
-2.4
-3.8

45,275
850
1,900
1,125
2,600
7,575
1,325
7,450
22,450

44,525
850
1,925
1,125
2,600
7,575
1,350
7,225
21,875

46,200
850
1,950
1,125
2,625
7,675
1,375
7,550
23,050

46,400
850
1,900
1,100
2,600
7,475
1,375
7,475
23,625

45,475
850
1,875
1,100
2,575
7,325
1,350
7,475
22,925

-2.8
-2.9
-11.8
-2.2
0.0
-7.6
1.9
0.3
-1.9

-1.2
-4.1
-12.1
-1.1
2.7
-2.7
0.9
-1.4
-0.0

72,498
53,940
8,022
10,536
7,248
19,453

76,062
56,133
8,095
11,834
8,273
19,393

98,622
79,515
7,681
11,426
8,122
20,176

72,835
55,270
7,097
10,468
7,559
18,691

...
...
...
...
...
...

-1.6
-2.0
-0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-6.7

1.9
4.3
4.1
-11.0
3.6
23.2

26,371
9,679
14,375
2,317

29,190
11,304
16,670
1,216

32,807
9,109
20,397
3,301

28,105
15,763
8,243
4,099

28,339
12,334
15,387
618

-24.6
12.1
4.1
-94.8

13.0
4.8
94.9
-44.6

58
58

74
72

62
62

60
60

87
85

3.6
1.2

-8.4
-2.0

141,900
135,050
6,850
4.8

142,425
135,500
6,925
4.9

139,950
134,325
5,625
4.0

136,825
131,525
5,300
3.9

136,550
131,200
5,350
3.9

0.5
0.2
8.6
8.1

4.7
4.4
12.6
7.4

113,150
875
7,475
6,150
3,025
28,450
2,975
32,600
31,600

112,125
850
7,600
6,275
3,075
28,650
2,925
32,275
30,475

111,475
875
7,700
6,300
3,050
29,075
2,925
32,475
29,075

112,425
875
7,725
6,300
3,000
28,975
2,925
32,075
30,550

112,800
875
7,850
6,275
3,025
29,175
2,950
31,925
30,725

0.0
-23.9
4.7
-2.0
-0.0
2.5
0.0
1.2
-3.1

1.7
-22.3
0.8
-1.7
1.3
2.9
0.2
1.4
3.1

269,097
193,139
46,202
29,756
20,472
64,691

232,920
165,671
39,425
27,824
19,452
58,127

245,559
175,307
40,646
29,606
21,043
67,040

228,751
163,611
39,286
25,854
18,670
64,157

...
...
...
...
...
...

5.8
7.9
-2.4
6.7
6.1
0.0

4.3
6.8
1.3
-6.0
10.5
6.4

77,289
39,460
6,986
30,843

63,661
45,338
14,485
3,838

77,823
50,604
23,811
3,408

81,062
36,141
7,210
37,711

57,937
50,945
5,267
1,725

-19.3
-2.0
-47.0
-82.5

7.4
8.6
16.4
-4.5

255
241

298
280

353
327

225
219

362
312

-21.8
15.6

0.7
9.2

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TEN

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

JUN
2002

JUL
2002

AUG
2002

SEP
2002

OCT
2002

1,678.2
1,584.0
94.2
5.7

1,676.3
1,582.9
93.4
5.3

1,686.0
1,593.7
92.3
5.1

1,679.4
1,588.6
90.8
5.0

1,681.8
1,591.0
90.8
5.2

1.9
1.3
13.5
13.0

3.7
1.7
59.2
56.4

1,566.1
2.3
117.3
145.7
112.7
33.0
82.1
384.9
88.8
296.1
124.7
513.7
195.4

1,546.4
2.3
117.3
146.2
112.9
33.3
81.8
379.6
87.6
292.0
124.3
508.0
186.9

1,561.7
2.3
119.0
145.5
112.7
32.8
81.3
378.0
87.1
290.9
124.2
511.6
199.8

1,575.1
2.3
119.1
144.8
111.9
32.9
80.9
377.7
87.2
290.5
123.7
512.3
214.3

1,591.8
2.3
120.9
144.1
111.0
33.1
81.6
381.3
87.3
294.0
124.4
517.8
219.4

-0.6
0.0
-0.6
-6.7
-8.3
-1.2
-5.1
-0.6
-1.9
-0.2
-2.4
1.0
3.2

-1.3
-3.2
-4.0
-8.7
-9.6
-5.7
-5.7
0.7
-2.2
1.6
-0.3
-1.2
3.9

3,191,267
2,255,710
386,228
371,839
177,490
704,277

2,917,294
2,055,676
365,040
314,579
181,999
689,197

3,085,479
2,201,130
370,390
324,327
189,631
670,249

3,014,483
2,105,668
381,324
355,447
172,044
663,829

...
...
...
...
...
...

2.5
1.2
1.3
8.8
9.6
-0.8

0.1
0.2
2.4
2.2
-10.0
2.3

1,013,454
583,711
254,013
175,730

968,259
567,088
282,790
118,381

840,363
582,767
191,754
65,842

779,901
540,609
163,083
76,209

906,819
614,015
204,289
88,515

7.9
33.3
-16.5
-34.5

-13.5
2.1
-27.0
-42.5

4,945
3,608
31
1,306

4,410
3,575
49
786

4,148
3,537
57
554

3,862
3,180
21
661

4,263
4,023
43
217

72.2
69.4
59.3
197.3

5.0
14.6
-43.8
-30.7

1,165,556
6,066
192,146

1,111,898
5,828
190,786

1,019,549
5,519
184,734

944,066
5,262
179,412

1,003,438
5,406
185,616

27.9
19.4
7.1

7.3
2.2
4.7

3,157,840
45,871

3,190,520
45,878

3,126,697
47,183

2,553,859
44,256

...
...

30.0
15.3

-5.4
-7.3

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

III
2001

IV
2001

I
2002

II
2002

III
2002

3,388.1
8.5
14.5
6.0
13.0

3,410.3
8.4
14.5
6.0
13.7

3,430.9
8.5
14.6
6.1
12.0

3,450.4
8.5
14.5
6.1
11.1

3,469.3
8.4
14.5
6.1
10.5

2.4
-1.3
0.1
2.0
-19.3

2.6
0.8
1.2
1.8
-27.6

93,117
70,341
4,315
-50
16,314
10,828
27,483

93,834
70,792
4,360
-50
16,251
11,200
27,515

94,625
71,318
4,408
-48
16,201
11,563
27,580

95,273
71,682
4,442
-48
16,159
11,923
27,612

95,921
72,046
4,477
-47
16,117
12,283
27,648

3.0
2.4
3.7
6.2
-1.2
13.4
0.6

2.7
1.9
2.6
5.5
-0.3
13.1
0.2

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PAGE ELEVEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

OCT
2002

JUN
2002

JUL
2002

AUG
2002

SEP
2002

402.8
383.5
19.3
4.8

397.8
378.5
19.3
4.7

401.4
382.9
18.5
4.5

405.0
387.0
18.0
4.2

406.8
389.3
17.5
4.1

2.0
1.7
8.7
5.1

3.3
1.9
46.8
42.7

341.6
1.5
21.9
32.3
27.8
4.5
10.7
70.3
10.0
60.3
15.1
115.5
74.3

333.3
1.5
21.9
32.3
27.7
4.6
10.7
69.6
10.0
59.6
15.2
114.5
67.6

338.0
1.5
22.2
32.0
27.5
4.5
10.7
69.2
9.9
59.3
15.1
114.7
72.6

345.8
1.5
22.2
32.0
27.5
4.5
10.6
69.9
10.0
59.9
15.1
115.1
79.4

351.5
1.4
22.1
32.0
27.4
4.6
10.7
71.2
10.1
61.1
15.3
116.9
81.9

0.0
-26.3
-0.9
-5.6
-5.8
-4.2
-2.7
-1.5
-1.9
-1.5
2.0
1.5
2.5

-1.1
-18.1
-3.2
-4.2
-3.2
-10.0
-9.2
-1.5
-3.8
-1.1
2.8
-1.1
1.9

798,918
575,326
93,054
82,741
47,797
130,860

644,221
437,598
87,949
75,394
43,280
131,515

721,888
509,843
89,238
77,143
45,664
123,257

666,641
448,974
91,872
80,483
45,312
117,242

...
...
...
...
...
...

1.8
1.1
-1.2
5.1
10.5
-8.2

0.9
2.2
0.4
2.6
-14.2
-2.4

213,281
119,083
35,270
58,928

124,581
100,366
23,023
1,192

155,503
93,367
28,622
33,514

150,280
80,082
59,193
11,005

134,107
80,471
32,604
21,032

-1.0
-17.0
131.6
-13.8

13.5
0.4
42.8
48.5

593
586
6

501
469
32

694
678
16

731
492
238

958
507
451

27.2
-8.1
123.6

-1.6
2.1
-16.4

196,799
1,161
169,509

199,215
1,166
170,853

189,735
1,063
178,490

153,600
942
163,058

185,340
1,111
166,822

33.2
22.1
9.1

8.3
3.9
4.1

286,635
20,742

278,572
21,702

277,308
22,888

239,291
20,546

291,967
25,887

6.4
12.9

-6.8
4.4

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

III
2002

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

III
2001

IV
2001

I
2002

II
2002

872.7
1.3
3.1
1.8
3.2

877.1
1.3
3.1
1.8
3.1

881.4
1.3
3.1
1.8
3.0

885.9
1.3
3.1
1.9
3.2

890.7
1.3
3.2
1.9
3.5

2.1
2.6
2.4
2.2
6.6

2.1
2.6
2.1
1.7
-15.7

21,104
13,336
791
94
4,987
3,478
24,183

21,280
13,380
796
95
5,012
3,589
24,261

21,459
13,430
801
95
5,038
3,697
24,346

21,639
13,476
806
95
5,066
3,808
24,426

21,818
13,522
811
96
5,093
3,919
24,497

3.4
1.4
2.5
1.5
2.1
12.7
1.3

3.6
1.6
2.8
0.0
2.6
13.0
1.4

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TWELVE

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Transportation
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
Schools
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s)
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JUN
2002

JUL
2002

AUG
2002

SEP
2002

OCT
2002

2,509.5
2,350.7
158.8
6.0

2,508.4
2,345.9
162.5
6.0

2,521.5
2,363.6
157.9
5.7

2,510.1
2,358.6
151.5
5.7

2,509.7
2,362.8
146.9
5.7

2.0
1.5
11.2
7.5

3.5
1.9
37.9
33.1

2,228.5
8.8
159.3
194.8
151.3
43.5
105.8
67.6
535.1
108.3
426.8
149.3
708.9
366.5
50.4
316.1
157.7
40.0

2,196.0
8.6
158.9
195.2
151.4
43.8
105.5
67.7
529.0
107.3
421.7
149.0
701.6
348.2
50.2
298.0
138.5
39.8

2,220.0
8.5
161.1
194.1
150.9
43.2
104.8
67.6
527.7
106.5
421.2
148.6
706.2
369.0
50.4
318.6
162.8
39.6

2,243.6
8.4
161.0
193.2
150.0
43.2
104.3
67.6
527.8
107.0
420.8
148.3
707.3
393.3
50.0
343.3
188.3
39.8

2,267.1
8.5
162.6
192.5
149.0
43.5
105.2
68.2
533.4
107.5
425.9
149.1
714.5
401.3
50.8
350.5
195.5
39.3

-0.3
-8.6
-1.5
-6.1
-7.3
-1.8
-4.2
-2.0
-0.3
-1.6
0.0
-1.6
1.1
2.4
4.1
2.1
3.2
-1.0

-1.0
-8.1
-4.4
-7.5
-8.1
-5.3
-5.2
-4.9
0.4
-2.2
1.1
0.2
-0.9
3.0
3.5
2.9
3.9
-0.7

14.72
13.91
23.34
12.47
14.50

14.81
13.95
23.07
12.36
14.24

14.86
13.89
22.79
12.43
14.50

14.83
13.94
23.47
12.65
14.61

14.79
14.02
23.76
12.48
14.19

-3.1
4.4
10.3
4.9
2.5

-4.0
6.0
9.7
7.6
-2.0

4,822,939
3,349,992
615,300
549,201
308,445
212,209
552,908
284,728
64,131
291,343
1,004,824
27,681
121,608

4,337,224
2,966,000
581,547
476,873
312,804
218,683
646,813
241,214
54,622
264,036
972,617
23,360
96,395

4,633,809
3,232,985
590,070
488,049
322,705
229,373
615,257
225,911
53,642
249,909
952,960
19,966
100,227

4,440,487
3,021,802
607,488
519,441
291,756
210,684
617,474
222,552
44,133
273,631
942,741
24,781
111,209

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

2.8
1.7
2.5
6.6
9.2
8.6
3.0
-11.7
-0.9
-5.8
-1.4
26.4
10.4

1.0
1.3
3.8
2.4
-10.4
5.6
1.9
3.4
-0.9
-4.0
2.9
-27.7
-9.3

1,435,071
811,177
334,794
289,100

1,283,955
777,610
365,010
141,335

1,184,296
790,128
281,827
112,341

1,121,086
723,278
254,120
143,688

1,229,299
822,846
280,927
125,526

2.3
22.8
-5.5
-46.4

-8.0
2.9
-14.7
-34.2

6,207
4,820
58
1,329

5,904
4,780
100
1,024

5,516
4,851
104
561

5,297
4,294
96
907

5,876
5,228
105
543

52.5
46.3
41.9
163.6

5.9
12.1
-13.6
-24.1

2,331
1,909
19
403

2,527
2,068
29
430

2,725
2,204
24
496

2,480
1,983
22
474

2,778
2,212
18
547

20.1
19.6
-5.3
23.2

19.5
18.0
11.1
26.3

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PAGE THIRTEEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income
Proprietor's Income
Farm
Non-Farm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

III
2001

IV
2001

I
2002

II
2002

III
2002

5,339.9
10.8
21.4
10.6
29.2

5,377.9
11.2
21.4
10.2
24.7

5,411.2
10.6
21.1
10.5
20.0

5,440.3
10.4
21.1
10.7
17.2

5,466.8
10.4
21.2
10.8
14.9

2.4
-4.1
-0.9
2.4
-49.0

2.7
-4.0
-0.5
3.4
-29.4

138,817
98,313
6,062
455
26,815
19,296

137,895
96,935
5,988
454
26,689
19,805

141,852
99,746
6,258
466
27,192
20,707

142,573
99,611
6,247
465
27,432
21,311

143,423
100,247
6,286
468
27,302
21,694

3.3
2.0
3.7
2.8
1.8
12.4

3.8
2.7
4.9
0.6
1.3
13.8

79,823
8,472
10,017
317
9,700
25,996
34,658

78,554
8,491
9,890
377
9,513
25,641
34,350

79,058
8,693
10,762
980
9,782
26,215
34,576

79,754
8,900
10,346
326
10,020
26,207
34,926

...
...
...
...
...
26,235
...

1.3
7.3
3.0
-8.7
3.4
0.9
2.2

2.3
7.3
3.9
58.0
2.1
1.1
2.7

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA
JUN
2002
Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles

JUL
2002

AUG
2002

SEP
2002

OCT
2002

1,995,719
156,600
690,532
1,148,587
142,586
21,791
81,495
39,300

2,229,307
153,275
776,566
1,299,466
160,717
24,316
92,584
43,817

2,183,827
135,563
684,190
1,364,074
143,167
20,772
88,545
33,850

1,601,720
128,875
460,485
1,012,360
96,631
19,541
51,970
25,120

1,357,160
129,697
467,817
759,646
163,331
28,200
107,146
27,985

6.4
4.2
14.9
2.2
-8.9
-16.0
-4.9
-15.6

-7.9
-6.7
-3.7
-10.1
-12.8
-14.9
-14.3
-3.7

743,739
1,845,038
870,942

858,240
2,282,921
...

862,826
2,340,636
...

802,188
2,150,381
...

...
...
...

47.8
38.6
-5.3

15.1
3.5
-8.0

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA

Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JUN
2002

JUL
2002

AUG
2002

SEP
2002

OCT
2002

179.9
175.9

180.1
176.1

180.7
176.6

181.0
177.0

181.3
177.3

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
2.0
1.9

1.5
1.2

Sources and abbreviations:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department
of Commerce
PAGE FOURTEEN

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department
of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems
Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission)
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior
NSCCC: Nogales-Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce

PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service,
U.S. Department of Justice
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department
of the Treasury
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - QUARTERLY DATA

Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1996=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

III
2001

IV
2001

I
2002

II
2002

III
2002

182.1
177.8
174.1

182.1
177.3
173.5

183.2
177.9
173.9

184.8
179.8
175.8

185.6
180.6
176.6

1.9
1.6
1.4

2.2
1.5
1.2

109.9
109.6

109.8
109.8

110.1
110.1

110.5
110.9

111.0
111.5

1.7

1.3
1.3

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