ARIZONA'S ECONOMY
O C T O B E R

2 0 0 2

F A L L

Dear Readers,
The April 2002 issue of Arizona’s Economy was not printed nor
mailed due to state budget cuts. The April issue was published,
however, on our web site, http://ebr.eller.arizona.edu. You can now
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our web site.
A new report, The Economic Impacts of Mexican Visitors to Arizona
2001, also is available from our web site (see accompanying article).
We are proud to announce a 2003 edition of the Arizona Statistical
Abstract. Targeted for printing later this fall, the 600-page book
containing statistics for Arizona and its political subdivisions is both
comprehensive and concise. Order your copy now (page 4). Please
note our new address! We’ve moved to room 103, same building.
Thanks!
– Editor
I N S I D E

Outlook

2003 ARIZONA

2003
2004

STATISTICAL ABSTRACT .........4
FORECAST TABLES ................5
MEXICAN
VISITORS’ SPENDING ...........6
ECONOMIC INDICATORS ........7

I S S U E

TEN MILLION
ARIZONANS
IN 25 YEARS
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
August 31, 2002

O

ur annual update of the 25
year outlook finds Arizona’s
population topping ten million
in 2027! That’s roughly 1/2 million
more than in last year’s update. More
does not necessarily mean better,
however. Aggregate measures of well
being suggest that Arizonans will
continue to lag—and fall further
behind—national averages. Meanwhile,
the recovery in Arizona is a non-starter
as we reach the one-year anniversary
of September 11.
ONE YEAR LATER...
It has been a year since the terrorist attacks
at the World Trade Center and the Pentagon,
and the economy is still struggling to regain
its footing. Not all of the recent malaise is due
to terrorism, of course. The recession began
well before then, in the spring of 2001, as
the air was being let out of the high tech
investment bubble of the late 1990’s. More
recently, corporate and accounting scandals,
and the resulting swoon in the stock market
have impeded meaningful recovery.
Through the summer of 2001, the recession
was confined primarily to manufacturing.
We’ll never know, but there was a good
chance that the high tech correction could
have been contained and recession would
have been avoided. The shock from the

ELLER COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

T UCSON, ARIZONA

EXHIBIT 1
Forecast to 2027
1997

2002

2007

2012

2017

2022

Arizona
W&S Employment (000s)

1,984

2,264

2,699

3,136

3,719

4,415

5,130

Population (000s)

4,628

5,455

6,222

7,076

8,014

9,105

10,206

Personal Income ($ millions)

2027

103,701

140,117

193,105

247,054

357,150

517,162

738,197

Retail Sales ($ millions)

42,820

55,631

72,526

89,066

123,552

172,981

237,630

Phoenix-Mesa MA
W&S Employment (000s)

1,383

1,590

1,910

2,208

2,649

3,197

3,692

Population (000s)

2,900

3,461

3,983

4,551

5,194

5,996

6,743

Personal Income ($ millions)

71,070

97,490

140,069

184,767

279,377

422,077

614,452

Retail Sales ($ millions)

29,300

38,275

52,562

66,285

100,838

149,232

213,414

Tucson Metro Area
W&S Employment (000s)

315

348

404

459

530

610

695

Population (000s)

789

889

998

1,106

1,223

1,343

1,458

16,809

22,101

31,131

42,002

61,367

90,025

131,078

6,937

8,702

11,462

14,655

20,525

28,898

40,799

Personal Income ($ millions)
Retail Sales ($ millions)

terrorist attacks and anthrax scare spread
the decline to nearly all economic sectors,
thus ensuring recession.
The economy initially appeared to recover
quickly, with a large increase in first quarter
GDP, led by a huge increase in federal government spending and solid consumer spending,
especially on autos and houses. For consumer
spending to continue at such high levels
during a recession was unprecedented.
The effects of terrorism on consumer
psychology no doubt played an important
role here. First, the world changed for all
Americans on September 11, 2001. Terrorism,
which had existed in many parts of the world
for some time, had now come to us—U.S.
There is little doubt that many Americans
decided to grab what they could of the good
life while it still existed—and while they still
could. New cars were needed for upcoming
vacations (who wanted to fly?). And, it was
time to spruce up the old house—or buy a
better one—as people chose to stay closer to
home. Financial incentives from automakers
and low interest rates helped, of course.
Second, spurred by a sense of patriotism
unlike any in recent memory, many people
decided that it was their duty to get “back to
normal” as soon as possible. And that meant
spending money. Although it would be an
error to label the spending spree as irraPAGE TWO

tional, spending decisions were made more
on emotion than on economics.
A year later, emotion has subsided and
economics is once again the basis for spending decisions. What consumers have found
is that wages are stagnating, insurance costs
are eating up what is left, and jobs are hard
to find. Businesses are dealing with an unprecedented squeeze on earnings as well as
accounting issues, and that has short-circuited
expansion plans. Investors are unsure what
companies are worth today, given recent
accounting malfeasance, and are remaining
on the sidelines until corporate financials are
restated. Stock market woes, in combination
with other worries, are weighing heavily on
confidence, and decision makers are sitting
on their hands, waiting for better news.
The news will improve by the fourth quarter.
By virtually any measure, year-over-year comparisons will show large gains against the
weak fourth quarter 2001. By the end of the
year, confidence should be building and the
recovery gaining momentum.

RECENT EVIDENCE
FOR ARIZONA
Current measures show that Arizona’s
economy remains in recession. Thirty-six
thousand jobs have been lost since peaking in
March in 2001. That’s a decline in percentage

terms of 1.6% over a fifteen-month period.
Although that’s longer than the two “benchmark” recessions of the 70’s and 80’s, it’s
not nearly as deep. Over the eleven-month
recession in Arizona that began in September
1981, non-farm employment declined 2.5%.
And during only nine months spanning from
July 1974 through April 1975, job losses
were 4.8%!
The current downturn may be mild, but
it is widespread across many industries.
In June, the only two industries to add
employees during the past year were retail
trade (up a miniscule 2.0%) and government
(federal payrolls up 3.1% and schools up
5.6%). Manufacturing (down 7.3%),
mining (-8.3%), construction (-6.1%),
and transportation (-5.3%) registered the
largest losses.
With data through May, measures of transactions also displayed weakness. Retail sales
were 3.3% lower than one year earlier while
restaurant and bar sales gained a minuscule
0.7%. Travel and tourism industries also continue to feel the combined effects of recession
and terrorism; after initially recovering from
the shock, indicators have leveled off well
short of “normal” levels. Hotel/motel sales
are off 8.2% and airline passengers at Sky
Harbor and Tucson International are still
running 7-9% below year-earlier counts.
Metro Tucson’s economy may be doing
marginally better than Phoenix-Mesa, but
both are still declining. In June, non-farm
jobs were down from year-earlier counts
by 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively. May retail
sales were down 2.3% and 4.3%.

NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
By the end of this year, the economy should
look a lot better, setting the stage for a return
to a more “normal” growth rate in 2003 and
beyond. In 2003, population will grow statewide by 120,000, and over 62,000 net new
jobs will be created. During the next five years,
767,000 people (153,000 per year) and
435,000 new jobs (87,000 per year) will be
added. Personal income will grow by 6.1%
in 2003 and average 6.6% annual during the
next five years. Retail sales follows suit with
comparable gains of 4.4% and 5.7%.

25-YEAR OUTLOOK
Later this year, Arizona’s population will
surpass 5.5 million, and should rise to six
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

EXHIBIT 2
Arizona will Continue to Lose Ground

EXHIBIT 3
Half of Arizona’s Population
will be Working in 2027

Per Capita Personal Income as a % of US

Employment to Population Ratio
Percent
110

0.55
0.5

100

Phoenix

0.45
90

Tucson
Phoenix

0.4

80

0.35
Arizona

70

0.3
Arizona
60

0.25

50

0.2
60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

05

10

15

20

25

60

65

70

75

890,000 to over 1.4 million (Exhibit 1).
As the projections show, Arizona will become
home to hordes of additional people over the
Manufacturing Jobs as a % of Total Non-Farm coming years. But, what about standard of
living? Will Arizona be a better place to live?
Percent
Projections show per capita
35
income will continue to
slide, relative to U.S. averages, even though a larger
30
portion of the population
will be working. Arizona’s
25
economy also will become
United States
less diversified.
20
Per capita income, a
widely sited measure of
prosperity, will increase
15
to over $72,000 in 2027,
Arizona
compared to $25,300
10
today. But relative to the
rest of the nation, Arizona
5
will continue to lose
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
00 05 10 15 20 25
ground. Today, per capita
income in Arizona is only
million by 2006. The seven million threshold
80.3% of the U.S. figure ($31,500). Twentywill be passed in 2012, eight million in 2017,
five years from now it will be at 60%. The
nine million in 2022 and ten million in
projection continues a downward trend
2027! The Phoenix-Mesa metro area will
that began in the mid-1980s, when Arizona’s
account for 69% of Arizona’s new residents
per capita income was close to the national
during the next 25 years, as its population
average (Exhibit 2). This measure will
nearly doubles to 6.7 million from today’s 3.4
remain the highest for the Phoenix-Mesa
metro area, which will fall to 75% of the
million. Metro Tucson will swell from today’s
EXHIBIT 4
Manufacturing’s Share
will Shrink Further

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

80

85

90

95

00

05

10

15

20

25

U.S. average by 2027. Metro Tucson also
will be at 75%, 25 years hence. Per capita
incomes in Arizona’s remaining counties
will be much lower.
Twenty-five years from now, half of Arizona’s
population will be working compared to 42%
today, continuing the trend of the past forty
years (Exhibit 3). One would expect this
ratio to level off as baby boomers move into
their retirement years, but an ever-increasing
portion suggests that migration of working
age population will continue and that many
potential retirees will continue working,
perhaps out of economic necessity. The ratio
of employment to population will remain five
percent higher in Metro Phoenix than statewide and three percent lower in Tucson.
Arizona’s industrial composition will
become less diversified over the next 25
years. The only broad sectors to gain share
will be services (from 33% today to 39%),
and trade (23.5% to 25.5%). All other major
sectors will lose share. In spite of the best
efforts of our economic development community, manufacturing employment will
remain under-represented, accounting for
only seven percent, down from nine percent
today (Exhibit 4). That will continue the
downward trend evident since the late 1960s.
Mining, once one of the powerful engines of
the Arizona economy, will virtually disappear.
PAGE THREE

STATEWIDE
ECONOMIC STUDY
These projections, of course, are driven by
past trends—that have not been favorable.
What factors are responsible? What can be
done to reverse these trends? That’s the focus
of the newly released “Statewide Economic
Study,” commissioned by the Arizona Department of Commerce. The state’s universities
and electric utility companies, along with
Economy.com, a prominent national economic consulting firm, contributed in this
intensive effort—the first study since ASPED
in the early 1990s.
What industries are important drivers of the
Arizona economy? What does Arizona export?
Is Arizona a low wage, high cost state? What
benchmarks are available to tell how we’re
doing? What industries should Arizona target
for the future? All this and much more (some
1000 pages plus extensive spreadsheets
filled with data down to the county level of
geography) are available from the Arizona
Department of Commerce (DOC) web site
at: http://www.azcommerce.com. DOC will
be conducting meetings around the state later
this fall. These meeting will present study
findings as well as offer an opportunity for
participants to reflect on local plans. Check
the web site for a time and place near you,
and plan to attend. ■

S P O N S O R S

Arizona Department of Commerce
Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System
Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee
Arizona Portland Cement Company
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One Arizona
CB Richard Ellis
City of Mesa
City of Tucson
Compass Bank
Elliott D. Pollack and Company
KB Home
Merrill Lynch
Northern Trust Bank of Arizona
Pima Association of Governments
Pima County
Salt River Project
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Newspapers
PAGE FOUR

Now taking orders for the

2003 Arizona Statistical Abstract

T
Arizona ract
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Statistical A3bs
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00 Census
0
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e
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In

he authoritative source for economic and
social information for Arizona and its
political subdivisions, the 2003 Arizona
Statistical Abstract includes data on physical
resources of the state, human resources (such
as population, vital statistics, health, education,
employ-ment and welfare), public sector activities, and various economic measures such as
output, sales, jobs, etc. Included are statistics
from numerous sources such as the 2000
Census of Population and Housing, Economic
Censuses, Annual Survey of Manufacturers,
and County Business Patterns, to name a few.
Data are presented by jurisdiction as well as
comparisons to other states. The presentation is both comprehensive and concise.
The new 2003 edition of the Arizona Statistical
Abstract will be published in the fall of 2002.
Order your copy now by filling out the form
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ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

F O R E C A S T

T A B L E S
Compound Annual Growth Rates

Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change
Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1997
103701.5
8.3
22405.0
4.5
42820.8
6.2
4628.5
3.6
128.3
1984.4
4.9
352.9
3.8
131.8
4.4
207.4
3.7
1631.5
5.1
482.3
3.9
596.7
6.4

2002
140117.1
4.0
25684.4
1.4
55631.1
0.7
5455.3
2.5
72.3
2264.2
-0.1
365.3
-4.9
159.6
-3.2
197.1
-6.0
1898.9
0.9
536.7
0.7
714.8
0.4

2003
148668.3
6.1
26662.6
3.8
57996.9
4.3
5575.9
2.2
88.1
2326.6
2.8
369.8
1.2
159.7
0.1
201.7
2.3
1956.9
3.1
546.5
1.8
746.9
4.5

2004
159009.1
7.0
27808.6
4.3
60876.8
5.0
5718.0
2.5
106.4
2405.2
3.4
378.6
2.4
162.4
1.7
207.9
3.1
2026.7
3.6
562.9
3.0
781.2
4.6

2005
170478.6
7.2
29013.7
4.3
64914.4
6.6
5875.8
2.8
120.9
2500.6
4.0
397.0
4.9
170.3
4.9
218.4
5.0
2103.6
3.8
585.0
3.9
818.7
4.8

2006
181863.7
6.7
30074.5
3.7
68914.6
6.2
6047.1
2.9
129.0
2600.6
4.0
416.7
5.0
179.9
5.6
228.5
4.6
2183.9
3.8
607.7
3.9
859.3
5.0

2007
193105.4
6.2
31032.8
3.2
72526.3
5.2
6222.6
2.9
129.5
2699.9
3.8
436.4
4.7
188.2
4.6
239.9
5.0
2263.4
3.6
629.5
3.6
900.1
4.7

97-02
6.2

02-07
6.6

97-07
6.4

2.8

3.9

3.3

5.4

5.4

5.4

3.3

2.7

3.0

-10.8
2.7

12.4
3.6

0.1
3.1

0.7

3.6

2.1

3.9

3.4

3.6

-1.0

4.0

1.5

3.1

3.6

3.3

2.2

3.2

2.7

3.7

4.7

4.2

1997
71070.8
9.4
24504.4
5.0
29301.0
7.2
2900.3
4.2
88.2
1383.0
5.4
262.9
4.7
95.1
5.4
161.5
4.6
1120.1
5.5
338.7
4.0
431.9
7.2

2002
97490.3
3.4
28163.8
0.9
38275.7
1.1
3461.6
2.4
48.3
1590.3
-0.6
272.6
-3.5
116.3
-3.6
153.7
-3.6
1317.7
0.1
382.5
-0.2
514.0
-0.7

2003
103585.2
6.3
29265.2
3.9
40032.3
4.6
3539.5
2.3
44.6
1636.3
2.9
275.6
1.1
116.7
0.4
156.3
1.7
1360.7
3.3
390.2
2.0
535.6
4.2

2004
111592.4
7.7
30724.8
5.0
42413.2
5.9
3632.0
2.6
58.4
1691.0
3.3
279.4
1.4
119.8
2.6
157.1
0.5
1411.6
3.7
402.4
3.1
558.7
4.3

2005
120455.2
7.9
32222.4
4.9
45698.0
7.7
3738.2
2.9
71.6
1757.8
4.0
290.9
4.1
125.5
4.8
162.9
3.7
1466.9
3.9
418.1
3.9
583.3
4.4

2006
130186.6
8.1
33743.6
4.7
49180.1
7.6
3858.1
3.2
84.7
1833.1
4.3
304.8
4.8
133.2
6.1
169.1
3.8
1528.3
4.2
435.1
4.1
612.0
4.9

2007
140070.0
7.6
35161.7
4.2
52562.4
6.9
3983.6
3.3
89.6
1910.5
4.2
318.9
4.6
140.9
5.8
175.6
3.8
1591.5
4.1
452.2
3.9
642.6
5.0

97-02
6.5

02-07
7.5

97-07
7.0

2.8

4.5

3.7

5.5

6.5

6.0

3.6

2.8

3.2

-11.3
2.8

13.2
3.7

0.2
3.3

0.7

3.2

2.0

4.1

3.9

4.0

-1.0

2.7

0.8

3.3

3.8

3.6

2.5

3.4

2.9

3.5

4.6

4.1

Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area
1997
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
97-02
02-07
Personal Income ($ mill)
16809.2
22101.1
23585.0
25452.1
27310.6
29221.9
31131.6
5.6
7.1
percent change
5.2
4.1
6.7
7.9
7.3
7.0
6.5
Per Capita Personal Income
21303.1
24839.3
25884.1
27263.0
28582.2
29910.2
31186.1
3.1
4.7
percent change
3.6
1.9
4.2
5.3
4.8
4.6
4.3
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
6937.2
8703.0
9179.1
9744.2
10326.5
10905.8
11462.3
4.6
5.7
percent change
5.3
0.5
5.5
6.2
6.0
5.6
5.1
Population (000s, mid-year)
789.1
889.8
911.2
933.6
955.5
977.0
998.3
2.4
2.3
percent change
1.5
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.2
Net Migration (000s)
7.0
13.9
15.9
16.8
16.3
15.7
15.4
14.5
2.1
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
315.4
348.4
359.7
372.0
383.6
394.4
404.6
2.0
3.0
percent change
2.7
-0.7
3.2
3.4
3.1
2.8
2.6
Goods-Producing
49.9
55.0
56.2
57.4
58.4
59.3
60.2
2.0
1.8
percent change
0.9
-4.5
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.5
Construction
19.4
21.3
21.7
22.2
22.9
23.5
24.0
1.9
2.4
percent change
1.2
-3.0
1.8
2.7
2.9
2.6
2.2
Manufacturing
28.3
32.3
33.0
33.5
34.0
34.4
34.8
2.7
1.5
percent change
0.8
-4.5
2.1
1.8
1.3
1.1
1.2
Service-Providing
265.5
293.4
303.5
314.7
325.2
335.1
344.4
2.0
3.3
percent change
3.0
0.0
3.5
3.7
3.4
3.0
2.8
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
69.2
71.4
73.1
75.8
78.7
81.2
83.3
0.6
3.1
percent change
3.4
-1.2
2.3
3.8
3.8
3.1
2.6
Services
99.3
116.7
122.9
128.8
134.4
140.0
145.4
3.3
4.5
percent change
3.7
-0.4
5.3
4.9
4.3
4.1
3.9
* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Karl Eller Graduate School of Management, College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

97-07
6.4
3.9
5.1
2.4
8.1
2.5
1.9
2.2
2.1
2.6
1.9
3.9

PAGE FIVE

THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF
MEXICAN VISITORS TO ARIZONA:
Alberta H. Charney and
Vera K. Pavlakovich-Kochi
Dr. Charney is with the Economic and Business Research
Program and Dr. Pavlakovich-Kochi is with the Office
of Economic Development at the University of Arizona.

A

major study was recently completed that assessed the economic
contribution of Mexican visitors
on Arizona’s economy. This is the third
study since 1977-78 that in a systematic way measures economic impacts
of Mexican visitors’ spending. Exit
surveys were administered at the six
border ports of entry along the USMexico border (Douglas, Lukeville,
Naco, Nogales, San Luis, and Sasabe)
and two international airports in
Phoenix and Tucson throughout the
2001 calender year. Surveys were
conducted in Spanish by bi-lingual
students from the University of Arizona.
Mexican visitors are the largest component of day-trip visits to Arizona. In 2001,
over 23 million Mexican visitors came
to Arizona in 10.49 million parties. Over

2001

99 percent of those visitors came from the
neighboring state of Sonora.
The primary reason for visiting Arizona
is shopping, which accounts for 72 percent
of all visitor parties. Work is the primary
reason for 14 percent of all visitor parties,
while visiting family is the primary reason
for 8 percent. Other reasons are vacation,
medical, business and personal, accounting
for between less than 1 percent and 3 percent of visitor parties. In comparison with
the 1991 study, shopping as the primary
reason for visiting has increased only slightly from 70.8 percent.
During 2001, Mexican visitors to Arizona
spent an estimated $962.9 million. Of that
amount, $399 million was spent at Arizona’s
department stores and other clothing and
ware stores, and $240 million was spent at
grocery stores.
The 2001 expenditures represent a 44.1
percent increase in visitor spending since
1991 ($668.2 million). Data suggest that
Mexican visitors’ spending increased in
department and grocery stores, restaurants,
gasoline stations, air travel and car rental
services, although the last two categories
account for a relatively small portion of total
spending (5.9 percent). Total spending for

medical-related services declined in comparison with the 1991 study.
On average, a Mexican visitor party spends
$91.7 per trip to Arizona, although there are
substantial differences across model of travel.
Pedestrians spend, on average, $39 per
party, compared to $99 per party for visitors
entering by motor vehicles and $1,317 per
visitor party traveling by air.
The highest portion of all expenditures
(about 31 percent or $301.6 million) is
spent in Pima County; Santa Cruz County
receives about 25 percent, followed by Yuma
County (20 percent), Maricopa County (13
percent) and Cochise County (10 percent).
Mexican visitors’ spending generates a
total of $1.58 billion in sales in the Arizona
economy. Mexican visitors’ spending generates close to 35,200 jobs and over $628.4
million in wages. These figures include direct
jobs and associated wages in retail establishments, eating and drinking places and other
sectors directly serving Mexican visitors, as
well as jobs and wages generated as these
moneys are re-spent in the local economy.
For much more detailed information
regarding Mexican visitors’ impact on
Arizona, see the entire study on our website
http://ebr.eller.arizona.edu. ■

The University of Arizona • Eller College of Business and Public Administration’s

2003-2004

Economic
Outlook
Luncheon
PAGE SIX

Presentations by:
Marshall J. Vest
Economic and Business Research Program

Friday, Dec. 13th

Gerald J. Swanson
Economics Department

Noon - 2pm
Westin La Paloma
Tucson

Mark Zupan
Dean, Eller College of Business
and Public Administration
Reserve now and save:
$55 per person; $550 per table of 10*
After November 8: $60 per person; $600 per table of 10*

Reservations required. Call 621-9954
for information and reservations.
*Fee is not a charitable contribution.

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining (Mohave County only)
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
2002

APR
2002

MAY
2002

JUN
2002

JUL
2002

58,900
51,525
7,375
12.5

60,400
50,050
10,350
17.1

68,950
49,500
19,450
28.2

68,325
48,075
20,250
29.6

70,325
47,600
22,725
32.3

0.8
1.4
-0.5
-1.3

-3.5
0.2
-14.1
-11.5

44,250
2,675
2,050
1,600
12,900
1,375
10,900
12,750

42,725
2,750
1,975
1,625
11,675
1,350
10,775
12,575

41,500
2,775
2,000
1,650
10,700
1,300
10,550
12,525

40,225
2,775
1,950
1,650
10,300
1,300
10,475
11,775

39,325
2,825
1,875
1,625
10,225
1,300
10,450
11,025

1.4
0.9
-17.6
14.0
-1.2
4.0
6.9
1.1

0.4
-0.0
-11.9
4.1
-2.9
-0.5
3.7
2.9

107,533
82,707
13,029
11,797
9,565
14,684

93,429
72,453
10,387
10,589
7,883
19,633

85,969
64,792
10,204
10,973
7,958
22,117

92,796
72,295
9,654
10,847
7,462
20,084

...
...
...
...
...
...

17.4
21.1
5.9
5.9
19.1
21.6

1.8
3.2
6.9
-11.9
7.8
14.7

30,324
13,520
15,757
1,047

18,860
14,756
3,919
185

18,725
12,296
485
5,944

24,052
13,663
9,224
1,165

25,603
13,909
5,118
6,576

-6.0
15.6
-61.6
249.0

1.0
2.7
-16.5
42.0

132
132

154
154

98
98

130
130

122
122

2.5
2.5

11.7
6.0

75,000
71,425
3,575
4.8

75,750
72,125
3,625
4.8

76,900
73,050
3,850
5.0

78,000
73,650
4,350
5.6

78,500
74,300
4,200
5.4

5.6
4.5
29.2
22.4

5.0
4.4
17.8
12.2

46,925
75
4,500
3,400
2,325
13,975
1,550
11,125
9,975

47,200
75
4,575
3,500
2,300
13,925
1,625
11,275
9,925

47,450
75
4,625
3,500
2,325
13,975
1,625
11,450
9,875

47,400
75
4,750
3,500
2,350
13,950
1,650
11,550
9,575

47,125
75
4,725
3,500
2,375
13,925
1,650
11,375
9,500

1.0
-25
-1.6
0.7
1.1
0.9
3.1
1.3
2.2

-0.1
-14.9
-4.0
-1.7
0.8
-0.2
2.7
-2.5
5.3

133,832
103,204
15,594
15,034
12,189
30,871

125,282
93,866
15,687
15,729
11,709
31,652

128,630
96,488
14,860
17,282
12,533
34,450

130,404
98,326
14,345
17,733
12,200
33,155

...
...
...
...
...
...

5.0
6.5
6.8
-4.2
7.8
19.6

4.2
7.7
7.9
-16.2
1.4
10.8

28,276
18,248
2,086
7,942

54,001
20,153
5,793
28,055

36,120
26,147
9,518
455

31,416
24,128
5,250
2,038

35,964
24,404
10,094
1,466

52.8
27.8
...
-65.2

2.9
3.9
80.9
-27.8

181
175

192
186

240
236

222
212

252
186

37.7
3.9

4.0
2.2

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PAGE SEVEN

A R I Z O N A

COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
2002

APR
2002

MAY
2002

JUN
2002

JUL
2002

41,875
39,700
2,175
5.2

41,925
39,825
2,100
5.0

42,525
40,400
2,125
5.0

41,875
39,525
2,350
5.6

42,200
39,775
2,425
5.7

2.6
1.3
31.1
27.7

3.4
2.8
16.6
12.8

33,200
2,075
875
1,250
7,800
725
9,075
11,400

33,050
2,075
825
1,200
7,775
750
9,025
11,400

33,300
2,075
850
1,225
7,775
750
9,125
11,500

32,325
2,125
850
1,250
7,575
750
8,925
10,850

32,125
2,175
825
1,275
7,525
775
9,075
10,475

-0.8
0.0
-13.2
0.0
-4.1
0.0
2.0
0.2

0.6
-0.4
-9.2
-1.8
-0.5
0.8
1.5
1.9

65,361
50,904
8,432
6,025
4,885
14,234

71,379
56,632
8,171
6,576
4,896
11,230

65,593
51,413
7,507
6,673
4,839
16,655

59,493
44,926
7,957
6,610
4,548
12,800

...
...
...
...
...
...

-4.6
-7.9
12.7
1.0
13.6
11.7

3.4
4.3
7.4
-8.3
11.7
8.0

10,225
5,094
2,925
2,206

6,890
6,590
300
0

13,302
6,642
6,480
180

10,799
7,858
1,153
1,788

13,688
5,537
7,151
1,000

62.6
101.9
...
-81.8

-17.5
-17.2
24.1
-50.2

53
53

68
68

65
65

78
78

63
63

117.2
117.2

6.0
6.0

13,050
11,950
1,100
8.4

13,150
12,075
1,075
8.2

13,450
12,300
1,150
8.6

13,950
12,175
1,775
12.7

14,500
12,200
2,300
15.9

8.0
7.5
10.8
2.6

3.7
3.5
5.3
2.0

12,525
400
750
1,250
4,850
400
1,575
3,300

12,550
400
750
1,250
4,975
400
1,500
3,275

12,700
425
750
1,250
5,025
400
1,500
3,350

12,450
425
750
1,225
4,975
400
1,475
3,200

12,350
425
750
1,175
4,925
400
1,475
3,200

6.0
0.0
-16.7
4.4
12.6
-5.9
-1.7
10.3

1.4
-0.5
-15.0
-0.3
5.7
20.9
-7.7
4.0

32,694
26,306
3,712
2,676
2,170
3,420

29,014
22,955
3,034
3,025
2,252
4,140

27,684
21,983
2,718
2,983
2,163
4,778

26,985
21,429
2,577
2,979
2,050
5,233

...
...
...
...
...
...

-1.0
0.3
-1.6
-9.1
2.3
13.6

-0.7
2.5
-3.3
-19.1
-1.1
4.5

14,965
4,965
10,000
0

9,363
3,863
5,500
0

10,874
4,702
6,091
81

11,249
9,308
1,941
0

5,150
4,850
0
300

78.5
87.5
...
0.3

28.8
28.1
200.2
-95.3

38
38

35
35

36
36

165
35

35
35

59.1
59.1

18.0
22.0

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

PAGE EIGHT

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining (Greenlee County only)
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
2002

APR
2002

MAY
2002

JUN
2002

JUL
2002

17,350
15,950
1,400
8.1

17,400
16,100
1,300
7.5

17,650
16,375
1,275
7.2

17,550
16,175
1,375
7.8

18,050
16,550
1,500
8.3

3.9
1.2
46.3
40.9

1.4
0.1
23.1
21.2

13,700
675
900
850
500
3,100
250
2,850
4,575

13,700
675
875
875
500
3,050
275
2,800
4,650

13,875
675
900
900
500
3,075
275
2,850
4,700

13,525
650
900
875
500
3,125
275
2,800
4,400

13,575
650
850
875
500
3,100
275
2,900
4,425

-1.8
-7.1
-17.1
-10.3
5.3
-1.6
0.0
0.0
2.3

-2.8
-2.1
-11.0
-10.1
-1.3
-0.5
-4.4
2.6
-4.4

25,739
19,567
3,514
2,658
2,155
5,956

25,913
19,019
3,961
2,933
2,183
5,276

27,810
20,550
4,060
3,200
2,321
6,344

27,360
19,886
4,426
3,048
2,097
10,112

...
...
...
...
...
...

-6.9
-6.6
-6.0
-9.4
1.9
10.8

-0.5
2.3
2.6
-19.3
-2.6
-0.1

9,807
6,209
500
3,098

6,796
3,907
0
2,889

4,029
3,229
800
0

26,140
4,097
6,582
15,461

10,201
4,366
5,040
795

92.7
69.5
222.5
-31.2

46.1
15.2
20.8
93.7

60
60

33
33

22
22

30
30

26
26

36.8
36.8

19.7
19.7

13,725
12,700
1,025
7.5

13,900
12,925
975
7.0

14,050
13,050
1,000
7.1

13,550
12,475
1,075
7.9

13,525
12,275
1,250
9.2

-2.3
-3.2
6.4
8.9

-5.2
-6.3
10.9
16.6

10,350
2,125
400
325
200
2,275
200
1,550
3,275

10,525
2,125
425
325
200
2,350
200
1,550
3,350

10,500
2,125
450
325
200
2,450
200
1,575
3,175

9,950
2,125
475
300
200
2,275
200
1,475
2,900

9,725
2,100
450
300
200
2,225
200
1,450
2,800

-5.6
-11.6
-14.3
-7.7
-11.1
-3.3
-11.1
-12.1
4.7

-9.0
-9.3
-54.2
-4.3
-7.3
0.3
-5.7
-5.0
-4.9

18,124
15,201
1,483
1,440
1,168
5,250

19,381
15,654
2,102
1,625
1,210
4,260

19,920
16,708
1,503
1,709
1,239
3,764

18,102
15,015
1,438
1,649
1,135
4,159

...
...
...
...
...
...

-3.9
-5.1
-17.1
29.3
45.5
-3.3

-7.8
-6.5
-7.7
-20.0
-3.4
40.8

5,676
623
5,053
0

370
370
0
76

582
582
0
1,931

190
190
0
830

1,087
448
639
6,571

111.9
-12.7
...
477.9

-25.7
-32.0
-23.0
-37.1

6
6

6
6

6
6

2
2

4
4

-33.3
-33.3

-38.6
-38.6

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PAGE NINE

A R I Z O N A

APACHE-NAVAJO REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
2002

APR
2002

MAY
2002

JUN
2002

JUL
2002

51,100
45,725
5,375
10.5

50,575
45,775
4,800
9.5

51,075
46,400
4,675
9.2

53,350
46,075
7,275
13.6

54,225
45,850
8,375
15.4

0.6
-1.1
11.3
10.6

1.3
2.4
-7.1
-8.4

46,050
800
1,850
1,100
2,550
7,350
1,325
7,275
23,800

45,850
800
1,825
1,125
2,600
7,375
1,325
7,400
23,400

46,000
800
1,850
1,100
2,600
7,500
1,325
7,450
23,375

45,275
850
1,900
1,125
2,600
7,575
1,325
7,450
22,450

44,325
850
1,925
1,125
2,600
7,600
1,350
7,325
21,550

-4.0
-5.6
-18.9
-8.2
2.0
-5.0
-1.8
-2.3
-3.0

-0.5
-3.3
-8.3
0.2
2.4
-2.3
5.7
-1.5
0.6

64,895
49,904
5,727
9,264
7,511
15,717

66,779
51,163
5,898
9,718
7,235
13,039

66,560
49,815
6,099
10,646
7,721
13,584

72,498
53,940
8,022
10,536
7,248
19,453

...
...
...
...
...
...

-8.7
-10.3
12.7
-13.8
-3.0
-0.7

-0.1
1.9
3.1
-12.1
5.6
17.3

24,817
13,840
10,276
701

19,736
11,572
4,400
3,764

27,872
12,707
13,418
1,747

26,371
9,679
14,375
2,317

29,190
11,304
16,670
1,216

35.8
16.8
575.2
-87.0

5.8
5.0
49.0
-31.9

164
164

72
72

93
93

58
58

74
72

17.5
14.3

3.4
6.2

135,750
129,600
6,150
4.5

137,400
131,850
5,550
4.0

138,075
132,700
5,375
3.9

141,900
135,050
6,850
4.8

142,300
135,300
7,000
4.9

4.3
3.7
17.6
12.8

5.4
5.2
10.7
4.9

110,575
875
7,175
6,100
2,925
27,600
2,900
31,225
31,775

111,700
875
7,150
6,150
2,975
27,950
2,950
31,800
31,850

111,975
875
7,300
6,150
3,050
28,050
2,950
32,125
31,475

113,150
875
7,475
6,150
3,025
28,450
2,975
32,600
31,600

111,925
850
7,600
6,275
3,025
28,625
2,925
32,250
30,375

1.5
-29.2
1.7
-4.2
-0.8
1.2
0.0
-1.5
8.0

2.2
-15.8
-0.4
-0.1
1.1
2.9
-0.6
1.8
4.2

213,127
155,657
36,296
21,174
17,167
55,269

220,746
159,639
37,789
23,318
17,358
67,059

232,702
165,471
39,144
28,087
20,369
61,056

269,097
193,139
46,202
29,756
20,472
64,691

...
...
...
...
...
...

11.5
12.9
9.1
6.8
20.1
12.0

3.9
6.4
2.7
-8.5
11.0
7.4

52,119
35,069
9,422
7,628

58,172
42,842
5,949
9,381

59,913
46,424
4,524
8,965

77,289
39,460
6,986
30,843

63,661
45,338
14,485
3,838

0.7
20.1
-16.9
-52.4

3.2
13.9
-6.7
-19.4

241
219

268
252

304
288

255
241

298
280

8.8
8.5

17.3
10.3

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TEN

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

MAR
2002

APR
2002

MAY
2002

JUN
2002

JUL
2002

1,653.6
1,567.3
86.3
5.5

1,657.7
1,572.6
85.1
5.7

1,663.4
1,577.4
86.0
5.3

1,678.2
1,584.0
94.2
540.0

1,677.6
1,583.4
94.2
540.0

3.1
1.3
47.4
14,110.5

4.2
1.9
78.4
3,024.9

1,583.3
2.3
113.0
147.3
114.0
33.3
82.5
384.5
88.8
295.7
125.9
513.5
214.3

1,586.0
2.3
115.0
147.1
114.0
33.1
82.0
386.9
88.6
298.3
125.8
513.8
213.1

1,579.8
2.3
116.3
146.2
113.3
32.9
82.3
385.8
88.7
297.1
124.6
514.2
208.1

1,566.1
2.3
117.3
145.7
112.7
33.0
82.1
384.9
88.8
296.1
124.7
513.7
195.4

1,547.2
2.3
116.8
146.1
113.0
33.1
81.7
379.8
87.4
292.4
124.3
508.3
187.9

-1.3
0.0
-6.1
-8.0
-8.8
-5.2
-6.5
1.9
-2.6
3.3
-2.2
-1.1
4.2

-1.0
-4.8
-3.2
-8.6
-9.0
-7.3
-4.1
0.9
-1.8
1.8
1.2
-1.4
4.2

3,369,999
2,358,430
401,182
444,304
166,083
702,896

3,260,136
2,267,900
406,402
409,768
176,066
683,806

3,178,518
2,217,309
397,124
383,503
180,582
719,777

3,192,456
2,255,710
387,417
371,839
177,490
704,277

...
...
...
...
...
...

-0.7
-1.9
2.1
4.3
-1.8
-10.6

-0.8
-0.6
1.8
1.7
-14.6
4.1

716,582
539,488
138,115
38,979

739,206
528,412
148,972
61,822

1,070,973
745,502
239,153
86,318

1,013,454
583,711
254,013
175,730

968,259
567,088
282,790
118,381

9.3
15.3
-11.1
55.1

-5.2
-5.9
-29.8
65.0

3,611
3,064
47
500

4,218
3,731
57
430

4,297
4,158
33
106

4,945
3,608
31
1,306

...
...
...
...

21.8
13.8
-65.6
63.0

-3.3
6.9
-35.4
-37.8

na
na
na

na
na
na

na
na
na

na
na
na

na
na
na

na
na
na

na
na
na

3,339,015
46,749

2,971,862
45,334

3,072,912
46,553

...
...

...
...

-2.9
-4.2

-6.5
-9.7

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

II
2001

III
2001

IV
2001

I
2002

II
2002

3,366.6
8.5
14.4
6.0
14.6

3,388.3
8.5
14.5
6.0
13.2

3,410.3
8.5
14.6
6.0
13.5

3,431.1
8.7
14.7
6.1
12.1

3,451.2
8.6
14.7
6.1
11.5

2.5
1.9
1.9
1.9
-21.3

2.7
4.1
3.1
1.7
-29.5

93,881
71,922
4,457
-50
16,161
10,305
27,886

94,558
72,334
4,491
-50
16,178
10,588
27,908

95,390
72,873
4,534
-49
16,204
10,896
27,971

96,283
73,469
4,580
-48
16,244
11,197
28,062

97,088
73,990
4,621
-47
16,274
11,493
28,132

3.4
2.9
3.7
5.7
0.7
11.5
0.9

3.6
3.2
3.6
7.5
1.4
10.1
0.9

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PAGE ELEVEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

JUL
2002

MAR
2002

APR
2002

MAY
2002

JUN
2002

402.8
384.9
17.9
4.8

403.2
385.5
17.7
5.0

404.6
386.9
17.7
4.8

402.8
383.5
19.3
4.8

397.9
378.7
19.2
4.7

2.6
1.1
42.2
38.2

3.6
2.1
54.7
49.7

350.5
1.5
21.0
32.4
27.8
4.6
10.8
71.9
10.0
61.9
15.2
117.1
80.6

350.2
1.5
20.9
32.2
27.7
4.5
10.8
71.7
9.8
61.9
15.2
116.9
81.0

349.3
1.5
21.3
32.3
27.8
4.5
10.7
71.3
9.9
61.4
15.2
116.0
81.0

341.6
1.5
21.9
32.3
27.8
4.5
10.7
70.3
10.0
60.3
15.1
115.5
74.3

333.6
1.5
21.8
32.3
27.7
4.6
10.8
69.6
10.0
59.6
15.1
114.9
67.6

-1.5
-21.1
-2.7
-5.8
-5.1
-9.8
-8.5
-0.7
-2.0
-0.5
2.0
-0.7
-0.1

-0.9
-12.3
-3.0
-2.2
-0.8
-10.2
-8.7
-1.3
-4.9
-0.7
3.0
-1.5
2.4

768,282
525,537
96,305
103,944
42,496
126,744

743,335
506,013
97,558
90,705
49,059
132,381

719,848
488,384
95,331
88,306
47,827
127,439

798,865
575,326
93,001
82,741
47,797
130,860

...
...
...
...
...
...

17.2
24.3
-0.8
3.2
6.9
-4.1

1.0
2.7
0.0
2.9
-17.1
-0.9

133,084
96,213
25,092
11,779

152,853
105,204
26,817
20,832

232,873
106,543
100,307
26,023

213,281
119,083
35,270
58,928

124,581
100,366
23,023
1,192

-0.4
7.0
40.4
-92.0

8.1
2.7
17.6
25.2

529
517
12

810
609
201

704
670
34

568
558
10

...
...
...

-5.3
2.8
-82.2

1.1
-0.3
9.2

167,341
1,042
160,596

195,298
1,163
167,926

231,751
1,299
178,407

196,799
1,161
169,509

199,215
1,166
170,853

-0.2
-2.2
2.1

7.0
3.1
3.6

354,016
24,303

311,871
23,044

305,859
24,116

286,635
20,742

278,572
21,702

-13.5
0.6

-9.7
-0.4

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

II
2002

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

II
2001

III
2001

IV
2001

I
2002

868.1
1.3
3.1
1.8
3.8

872.9
1.3
3.1
1.8
3.5

877.6
1.3
3.1
1.8
3.4

882.3
1.3
3.1
1.8
3.4

887.2
1.3
3.2
1.9
3.6

2.2
4.3
3.3
2.6
-5.5

2.3
3.8
2.4
1.4
-11.3

21,116
13,579
797
97
4,925
3,312
24,324

21,348
13,681
804
99
4,965
3,407
24,455

21,559
13,759
809
100
5,009
3,500
24,565

21,772
13,841
814
101
5,055
3,589
24,675

21,991
13,930
820
102
5,098
3,681
24,787

4.1
2.6
2.9
4.7
3.5
11.1
1.9

4.7
3.6
4.0
1.3
3.7
10.7
2.4

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table
PAGE TWELVE

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Transportation
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
Schools
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s)
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
2002

APR
2002

MAY
2002

JUN
2002

JUL
2002

2,463.2
2,330.8
132.4
5.9

2,471.4
2,338.8
132.6
5.7

2,490.5
2,348.0
142.5
5.7

2,509.5
2,350.7
158.8
6.0

2,509.0
2,345.9
163.1
6.0

3.1
1.5
32.5
33.3

3.8
2.1
44.4
39.1

2,256.3
8.8
153.8
195.7
152.0
43.7
106.4
67.5
537.4
110.4
427.0
150.5
709.0
394.7
49.1
345.6
191.7
39.7

2,259.2
8.8
155.9
195.5
152.0
43.5
105.7
67.3
539.0
108.9
430.1
150.5
709.6
394.2
49.3
344.9
191.7
40.0

2,252.2
8.8
157.7
195.1
151.6
43.5
105.9
67.4
537.6
108.5
429.1
149.2
709.0
388.9
50.0
338.9
183.8
39.9

2,228.5
8.8
159.3
194.8
151.3
43.5
105.8
67.6
535.1
108.3
426.8
149.3
708.9
366.5
50.4
316.1
157.7
40.0

2,196.2
8.6
158.9
195.2
151.5
43.7
105.4
67.7
529.4
107.2
422.2
148.8
701.9
348.0
50.0
298.0
138.8
39.9

-1.1
-9.5
-5.6
-7.0
-7.6
-4.8
-5.9
-5.3
1.5
-2.4
2.5
-1.6
-1.0
2.3
1.8
2.4
3.7
0.0

-0.7
-6.4
-3.6
-7.1
-7.2
-6.5
-3.9
-4.3
0.6
-1.9
1.2
1.5
-1.1
3.3
3.7
3.3
4.2
-1.0

14.86
13.91
22.26
12.26
13.86

14.94
13.79
22.55
12.28
13.90

14.87
13.80
22.85
12.39
14.09

14.72
13.91
23.34
12.47
14.50

14.81
14.02
23.39
12.41
14.27

-2.9
5.9
11.1
7.3
0.4

-3.9
6.3
9.1
7.4
-2.9

4,911,277
3,387,417
609,178
636,035
278,648
225,918
410,641
283,389
87,197
318,713
975,041
25,585
209,237

4,768,536
3,265,294
617,103
587,502
298,637
222,316
386,422
238,090
67,540
318,541
972,476
21,741
174,273

4,663,793
3,192,913
603,016
557,904
309,960
224,788
444,413
256,174
65,824
306,153
1,009,964
16,743
137,700

4,795,914
3,349,992
588,276
549,201
308,445
212,209
552,908
284,728
64,131
291,343
1,004,824
27,681
121,608

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

2.7
3.0
0.7
4.7
-0.1
12.4
-1.6
21.5
6.3
-12.7
-6.6
12.9
-8.8

-0.3
0.7
1.2
0.7
-14.4
4.0
1.3
4.3
-0.9
-2.9
4.3
-45.7
-12.2

1,025,875
733,269
219,226
73,380

1,066,323
737,669
201,650
127,004

1,477,194
964,774
380,776
131,644

1,435,071
811,177
334,794
289,100

1,283,955
777,610
365,010
141,335

10.2
15.6
-1.2
15.1

-2.5
-3.1
-20.9
40.3

4,791
4,198
88
505

5,764
5,049
109
606

5,694
5,503
85
106

6,207
4,820
58
1,329

...
...
...
...

17.3
12.3
-45.8
48.7

-0.2
7.4
-11.3
-34.6

2,395
1,891
24
480

2,666
2,099
33
533

2,642
2,078
31
533

2,331
1,909
19
403

2,527
2,068
29
430

26.4
29.3
-3.3
15.9

20.0
18.2
0.3
29.2

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PAGE THIRTEEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income
Proprietor's Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

I N D I C A T O R S

II
2001

III
2001

IV
2001

I
2002

II
2002

5,301.0
10.8
21.0
10.2
26.9

5,339.7
10.9
21.2
10.2
28.6

5,377.3
11.5
20.5
9.0
24.2

5,411.0
11.6
21.2
9.6
19.9

5,441.0
11.4
21.4
10.0
17.3

2.6
5.1
1.8
-1.7
-35.9

2.8
1.1
-0.9
-3.0
-15.1

134,940
97,745
5,939
454
24,844
17,837

135,624
98,072
5,959
455
24,869
18,189

135,495
97,804
5,943
454
24,631
18,553

136,632
98,064
5,984
455
24,714
19,386

139,316
99,801
6,090
463
25,332
19,813

3.2
2.1
2.5
1.9
2.0
11.1

3.3
2.8
3.3
2.3
0.7
9.8

78,928
7,913
10,281
502
9,779
25,455
34,257

80,256
8,082
10,285
471
9,814
25,399
34,799

78,736
8,053
10,104
457
9,647
25,198
34,386

78,932
8,146
10,552
691
9,861
25,251
34,501

...
...
...
...
...
25,605
...

1.2
4.6
3.6
13.8
2.9
0.6
2.2

3.1
5.6
4.9
25.3
4.0
0.5
3.0

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA
MAR
2002
Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles

APR
2001

MAY
2002

JUN
2002

JUL
2002

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

1,253,892
146,250
426,556
681,086
413,129
68,173
284,312
60,644

1,673,802
161,720
481,172
1,030,910
277,272
41,826
186,856
48,590

1,817,347
154,137
603,992
1,059,218
197,949
29,569
118,735
49,645

1,995,719
156,600
690,532
1,148,587
142,586
21,791
81,495
39,300

2,229,307
153,275
776,566
1,299,466
160,723
24,316
92,590
43,817

-12.8
-7.2
-6.8
-16.6
-8.0
-19.5
-1.4
-13.5

-8.2
-10.2
-7.1
-8.5
-11.1
-12.3
-14.1
4.4

866,169
2,265,994
906,205

769,805
2,014,001
885,485

817,370
2,100,469
946,322

743,739
1,845,038
870,942

858,240
2,282,921
...

33.9
30.0
-5.3

4.6
-5.4
-8.0

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA

Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

MAR
2002

APR
2002

MAY
2002

JUN
2002

178.8
174.7

179.8
175.8

179.8
175.8

179.9
175.9

JUL
2002
180.1
176.1

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
1.5
1.3

1.7
1.4

Sources and abbreviations:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department
of Commerce
PAGE FOURTEEN

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department
of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems
Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission)
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior
NSCCC: Nogales-Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce

PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service,
U.S. Department of Justice
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department
of the Treasury
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - QUARTERLY DATA

Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1996=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

II
2001

III
2001

IV
2001

I
2002

181.2
177.5
174.2

182.1
177.8
174.1

182.1
177.3
173.5

183.2
177.9
173.9

184.8
179.8
175.8

2.0
1.3
1.0

2.6
1.8
1.5

109.2
109.6

109.8
109.5

109.8
109.8

110.1
110.0

110.6
110.8

1.3
1.1

1.7
1.2

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