AZECJan02.kp 12/30/01 6:07 PM J A N U A R Y Page 1 2 0 0 2 Dear Readers, As you may know, the State Legislature is requiring Arizona’s universities to implement significant budget cuts. In order to comply with these cuts, the Economic and Business Research Program(EBR) will not print and mail out the April issue of Arizona’s Economy. The April issue will, however, be published on our website http://ebr.eller. arizona.edu. We hope to resume printing and mailing of Arizona's Economy with the July 2002 issue. If you would like to be notified by email when the April 2002 issue is available online, please fill out and return the postcard at the center of this newsletter. You may also use the postcard to update your mailing information or to let us know if you prefer to view future issues of Arizona’s Economy online, which will further help us to reduce our printing and mailing costs. If the postcard is missing, please call (520) 621-2155 or email EBRPublications@eller.arizona. edu. We’ll be happy to add you to the email notification list for the April issue. Thank you for understanding our efforts to reduce costs. – Arizona’s Economy staff W I N T E R I S S U E 2002|2003 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK By Marshall J. Vest Forecasting Project Director November 30, 2001 N ever, EVER, forecast a recession. That’s rule number one in the “forecasters’ handbook.” It doesn’t apply, however, when the economy is already in a recession, and there is no longer any doubt about that. The terrorist attacks delivered a huge shock to an economy that was precariously balanced between growth and contraction. The questions now are how long and how severe the recession will be. In this forecast update, we foresee a recession comparable to 1990-91 in duration and depth — perhaps a little deeper. The 1990-91 recession was relatively short and mild. The economy has come a long way since 9/11, when commerce practically stopped for a week. However, three months later, activity has not fully recovered and a number of industries are still down 5-25%. Threats from anthrax, warnings of imminent terrorist attacks and the loss of another airliner over Queens, NY, presumably because of mechanical failure, have slowed any return to “normalcy.” In October and early November, consumer confidence plunged to levels not seen since the beginning of 1994, and worry has grown that consumers might stop spending. Retailers panicked and slashed prices to get shoppers back into the malls. Shoppers responded favorably. Auto manufacturers offered zero interest financing, and new car and light truck sales soared to record levels in excess of 21 million units in October. Unfortunately, auto sales will decline sharply as soon as the incentives are removed. So, consumers have shown a willingness to spend — even in the face of rising layoffs, but sales are weak. Excluding autos, retail sales nationwide were only 1.6% higher than the year earlier figure in October, the slowest growth in eight years. Businesses are suffering from an unprecedented drop in corporate profits and have responded by slashing capital spending, implementing cost-control programs and laying off employees. There are more layoffs ahead. Cutting costs is the only way to improve earnings, since there is so much idle capacity worldwide and practically no pricing power. Businesses continue to attract customers by slashing prices. How can they counteract the resulting negative impact on profits? By firing or laying off workers? I N S I D E EBR WEB SITE WINS NATIONAL AWARD ..............5 FORECAST TABLES ................6 ECONOMIC INDICATORS ........7 ELLE R COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINIST RATION T UCSON, ARIZONA AZECJan02.kp 12/30/01 6:07 PM Page 2 EXHIBIT 1 Airlines Lead Pullback EXHIBIT 2 A Sharp Fourth Quarter Drop Transportation Employment, AZ (seasonally adjusted) Hotel Employment, AZ (seasonally adjusted) Shaded areas denote recession In this environment, regulators have prodded lenders to adopt tighter lending standards, thereby raising fears of a credit crunch. It is not surprising that business decision makers in virtually every industry have adopted a “wait and see” attitude. INDUSTRIES UNDER STRESS Industries most affected — and the key industries to watch in coming months — include the airlines, hospitality/tourism, retailing, manufacturing, and construction. EXHIBIT 3 Consumers Take Meals at Home Restaurant & Bar Sales, AZ (1996 dollars, annual rate) PAGE TWO The airline industry has been particularly hard hit. In the days following the attacks, most airlines cut capacity by roughly 20%, a forecast that has proved to be remarkably prescient. September passenger counts nationwide were off 25-30% and were still down 25% in early November, according to the Air Transport Industry Association. Early reports on travel over Thanksgiving showed travel down 20%. Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport reported a drop of over 25% in September and Tucson International over 28%. Arizona’s Shaded areas denote recession major airports appear to be doing much better than in other parts of the country. In October, Tucson’s counts improved to show a much better 14.2% drop; figures for Sky Harbor were not yet available. New federal legislation for airport security will help, but it will take several months to put in place and for many people to become comfortable with flying again. In the meantime, both leisure and business travel will remain below levels of a year ago. America West Airlines, which is headquartered in Phoenix and has one of the weakest cash positions of all major airlines, poses a significant risk to the Phoenix and Arizona economy should it significantly curtail operations further. America West employed nearly 10,000 workers prior to recent layoffs. Arizona is expected to lose as many as 5,000 jobs in the transportation industry before bottoming in the first quarter of 2002 (Exhibit 1). Because Arizona is a “fly-in” market, the tourism/convention business also is taking a hit. There are an estimated sixteen jobs in the tourism industry for every one in the airline industry, and there have been 100,000airline industry jobs lost nationwide. Hotel occupancy at local destination resorts, which fell into single digits the week following the attacks, was running at 60% or so in early ARIZONA’S ECONOMY AZECJan02.kp 12/30/01 6:07 PM Page 3 EXHIBIT 4 Retailing Drop Will Be Moderate EXHIBIT 5 Manufacturing Recession Will Intensify Retail Sales, AZ (1996 dollars, annual rate) Manufacturing Employment, AZ (seasonally adjusted) Shaded areas denote recession November compared to a more-normal 85%. Other parts of the West also are feeling the pinch. In Las Vegas, occupancy in early November was at 65% compared to 95% normally; Attendance at the annual COMDEX show held each year in mid-November was down 25%. Winter Olympics organizers in Salt Lake City are justifiably worried. Back in Arizona, visitation at the Grand Canyon, which has a major foreign component, was down 21.4% in October. Looking forward, people are expected to remain close to home this winter, and that’s bad for all tourism-related sectors. Arizona’s “Snow Bird” season (influx of winter visitors) also is likely to be disappointing. Hotel employment statewide is expected to drop by 5,000 or so on a seasonally adjusted basis during the fourth quarter, and then begin to recover — a process that will extend through the end of 2002 before employment returns to pre-attack levels. Resorts will suffer the most. Construction of several new destination resorts has been put on hold indefinitely (Exhibit 2). Restaurant and bar (R&B) sales received a boost from four World Series games in Phoenix (estimated to have pumped $80 million into the economy), but nevertheless, are expected to be down 10% from yearARIZONA’S ECONOMY IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT BUSINESS DECISION MAKERS IN VIRTUALLY EVERY INDUSTRY HAVE ADOPTED A “WAIT AND SEE” ATTITUDE. earlier levels during the fourth quarter and five percent the following quarter. For the current calendar year, Arizona’s R&B sales will be little changed from 2000, and will grow by only one percent or so in 2002 (Exhibit 3). Retailers are bracing for a disappointing holiday shopping season. The outlook is as much emotional as economic. Mounting layoffs will make consumers more cautious, of course, but people are likely to stay closer to home over the holidays and “cocoon” due to safety concerns, and that means more spending on home improvements and comfort items. Consumer electronics, particularly cell phones, will remain solid. High-end retailers and department stores will continue to lose ground to discounters. Expenditures on big-ticket items, especially for the home and autos, will remain strong in the near term in light of new personal priorities. Many decided that life is uncertain and that it was time to buy that new car NOW. Promotions also helped by lowering the price of a car by some $4000. Auto sales will fade, however, as dealers run out of inventory and layoffs mount. In the coming months, worries about flying and terrorism will recede. Unfortunately, they will be replaced by concern for jobs and incomes. Fourth quarter retail sales are expected to show a drop of 6-7% from year earlier levels. In real terms, this represents the sharpest drop since the recessions of the early 1980s. Sales should improve but remain below year ago in the first and the second quarters (Exhibit 4). Arizona’s manufacturing industry has trimmed nearly 10,000 jobs since peaking in January 2001. Nearly all of those losses have been in the Metro Phoenix area; Tucson’s manufacturing payrolls, which are largely PA GE TH RE E AZECJan02.kp 12/30/01 6:08 PM Page 4 EXHIBIT 6 A Muted Housing Cycle EXHIBIT 7 Job Growth Comparable To 1990-91 Residential Permits, AZ (annual rate) Wage & Salary Job Growth, AZ Shaded areas denote recession aerospace, missile, and optics related, match year-earlier readings. Inventories among high technology manufacturers nationwide were nearly corrected prior to the terrorist attacks and the industry was poised for a rebound. Now we have a cycle within a cycle as orders head lower and inventories worsen. Demand will increase for missiles over the longer term, of course, but the near term is decidedly negative for computers, semiconductors, electrical components, and commercial aerospace. We look for more layoffs in the months ahead — as many as 10,000 more before bottoming in the first quarter of 2002. The decline compares to those experienced in the recessions of 197475, 1981-82 and 1990-91 (Exhibit 5). In prior cycles, the construction industry has led the rest of the economy into recession. This time it will follow. The homebuilding industry has been providing support for the economy during the past year, as interest rates declined and home prices appreciated. Even though both new and resale markets remained surprisingly strong through midNovember, the industry is expected to soften in the coming months. What matters now are the softness in labor markets, reduced population growth, and much lower confidence. The good news is, the pullback should be PA GE F OU R IRONICALLY, JUST AS THE ECONOMY COULD USE SOME FISCAL STIMULUS, AND AT A TIME WHEN DEMANDS ON THE GOVERNMENT ARE INCREASING TO PROVIDE SECURITY, INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, AND MONITORING OF PUBLIC FACILITIES AND HEALTH — STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS ARE CUTTING BUDGETS. quite muted compared to prior building cycles since vacancies are low. Residential construction will decline by ten percent this year and another 20% in 2002. Again, most of the correction is expected in the once redhot Phoenix area — Tucson should fare much better (Exhibit 6). Unfortunately, commercial construction won’t help as vacancies have been heading higher since early 2001 as high tech and the “dot-coms” tanked. As commercial projects currently being built are completed, construction activity will plunge. Street and highway construction also are likely to suffer due to budget limitations in state and local governments. We forecast a loss of roughly 10,000 construction workers by the end of 2002. That compares to a loss of nearly 40,000 jobs from early 1986 through the summer of 1991. Since it won’t lose much, construction also won’t be a source for strong growth in the recovery. Overall, Arizona’s economy will generate less than 20,000 new jobs in 2002, the fewest since 1991. Unemployment will rise to 6.5% by mid-year, up from 5.4% in October. However, the economy should be on the rebound by mid-year, setting the stage for the creation of over 90,000 jobs in 2003 (Exhibit 7). See forecast tables on page 6. ARIZONA’S ECONOMY AZECJan02.kp 12/30/01 6:08 PM Page 5 The squeeze on corporate profits and selloff in stock markets will eliminate year-end bonuses and income from stock options, and that will keep income gains well below that experienced in recent years. Personal income will grow by a meager 5.4% in 2001 and only 4.8% in 2002 compared to the 9.2% surge in 2000. This will drastically slow revenues from sales and income taxes and make budget balancing a major challenge at the state and local level. Ironically, just as the economy could use some fiscal stimulus, and at a time when demands on the government are increasing to provide security, intelligence gathering, and monitoring of public facilities and health — state and local officials are cutting budgets. THINGS COULD BE MUCH WORSE The recession should be short and brief. Here are the reasons. • Oil prices have fallen and will remain weak. This provides a source for additional discretionary spending in households’ budgets. • The U.S. banking system is strong and there is no speculative bubble in real estate as occurred in the early 1990s. • Federal fiscal and monetary policies are very stimulative. Congress is boosting overall spending by providing funds for cleanup and reconstruction, support for the nation’s airlines, and homeland security as well as waging war on terrorism in Afghanistan. In addition, it is working on a second round of tax cuts to stimulate the economy. The Federal Reserve has injected a massive amount of liquidity into the economy by cutting interest rates ten times during 2001. The Fed Funds rate now stands at two percent, a forty-year low. Together, current fiscal and monetary policies represent an unprecedented amount of stimulus that will lift economic growth by the second quarter. According to forecasts from DRI-WEFA, a leader in world-wide economic forecasting, by the end of 2002 real GDP should be growing at a strong five percent annual rate. We should not expect the economy to return to the go-go days of the late 1990s. The highend economy that developed during the AR IZ ON A ’S E CON OMY Internet/dot-com bubble where price didn’t matter — $500 per night hotel rooms, $100 per plate meals, and expensive cars — is gone for good. Hopping on an airplane to fly across the country for a fifteen-minute meeting won’t return anytime soon either. Businesses will adjust to the terrorist threat by devoting additional resources to building security, mailroom operations, computer system replication and backups, and decentralization of key operations. They also will replace just-in-time with just-in-case inventory systems, which means higher inventory carrying costs going forward. Since these reflect costs that do not produce additional output, productivity will suffer — more so in the near term as new systems are put in place. We don’t wish to tempt fate, but as this is written, it has been more than two months without a terrorist attack. That’s very encouraging. Perhaps our efforts to combat this terrible cancer on the civilized world are eliminating the threat. An event-free passing of time will allow Americans to return to a more “normal” routine, even though life in America will never be the same. If we are confronted with another attack, then consumers may hunker down even more, business will further delay investment spending, and the rebound in economic activity will be delayed. We all will need to become students of probability. ■ S P O N S O R S Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee Arizona Portland Cement Company Arizona Public Service Company Bank One Arizona CB Richard Ellis City of Mesa City of Tucson Compass Bank Elliott D. Pollack and Company KB Home Merrill Lynch Northern Trust Bank of Arizona Pima County Qwest Communications Qwest Dex Salt River Project Tucson Electric Power Company Tucson Healthcare Council Tucson Newspapers UA’S ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH WEBSITE WINS NATIONAL AWARD T he Economic and Business Research Program (EBR) at the University of Arizona’s Eller College of Business and Public Administration won the Website Award of Excellence at the annual meeting of the Association of University Business and Economic Research (AUBER). AUBER’s national competition recognizes best practices in communications among AUBER’s 100+ member institutions. The site, http://ebr.eller. arizona.edu, was developed and is maintained with the support of Bank One, Arizona. The site is accessible to the public and showcases a wealth of economic and business data, including an online version of Arizona’s Economy and EBR director and economist Marshall Vest’s quarterly forecasts. With the website award, EBR has won recognition over the years in all four categories. Earlier awards of excellence were received for: 1) continuing publications for the Arizona’s Economy newsletter, 2) single volume category for the Arizona Statistical Abstract, and 3) economic outlooks, special studies, technical or contract reports for the Economic Outlook booklets distributed at the December luncheon. PAGE FIVE AZECJan02.kp 12/30/01 6:08 PM Page 6 F O R E C A S T Forecasts for Arizona Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Per Capita Personal Income percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Net Migration (000s) Wage & Salary Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Construction percent change Manufacturing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade (Wholesale & Retail) percent change Services percent change T A B L E S 2000 131,316.2 9.2 25,498 6.1 54,357.7 8.9 5,150.0 2.9 99.6 2,250.8 4.1 386.6 2.3 161.4 4.3 215.6 1.8 1,864.2 4.4 526.1 3.2 717.3 5.8 2001 138,472.5 5.4 26,169 2.6 54,561.0 0.4 5,291.6 2.7 87.5 2,282.6 1.4 389.8 0.8 169.2 4.9 210.9 -2.2 1,892.8 1.5 532.0 1.1 729.1 1.6 2002 145,066.6 4.8 26,825 2.5 55,201.7 1.2 5,408.0 2.2 63.2 2,301.1 0.8 375.2 -3.7 162.4 -4.0 202.8 -3.9 1,925.9 1.7 527.5 -0.9 757.8 3.9 2003 156,334.2 7.8 28,291 5.5 59,115.9 7.1 5,526.0 2.2 94.6 2,392.9 4.0 386 2.9 163 0.4 213.0 5.0 2,006.8 4.2 548.3 3.9 804.8 6.2 2004 167,360.4 7.1 29,470 4.2 63,755.4 7.8 5,679.0 2.8 111 2,488.1 4.0 400 3.6 175.6 7.7 214.5 0.7 2,088.1 4.0 570.1 4.0 847.8 5.3 2005 179,471.7 7.2 30,754 4.4 67,748.7 6.3 5,835.6 2.8 112.7 2,593.7 4.2 419.6 4.9 184.7 5.2 224.9 4.9 2,174.1 4.1 590.5 3.6 896.0 5.7 2006 191,938.6 6.9 31,998 4.0 72,027.7 6.3 5,998.5 2.8 116.2 2,697.2 4.0 436.9 4.1 193.3 4.6 233.5 3.8 2,260.3 4.0 610.9 3.5 945.8 5.6 Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Per Capita Personal Income percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Net Migration (000s) Wage & Salary Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Construction percent change Manufacturing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade (Wholesale & Retail) percent change Services percent change 2000 90,641.6 8.9 27,784 5.5 37,294.7 8.5 3,262.4 3.2 69.6 1,584.6 3.9 289.2 2.5 118.3 4.1 168.2 2.2 1,295.4 4.2 373.6 2.9 519.0 5.4 2001 95,764.7 5.7 28,580 2.9 37,715.9 1.1 3,350.8 2.7 55.3 1,609.0 1.5 293.9 1.6 123.8 4.7 167.3 -0.5 1,315.1 1.5 377.5 1.0 526.5 1.4 2002 99,876.4 4.3 29,133 1.9 38,408.9 1.8 3,428.3 2.3 44.4 1,630.7 1.3 284.0 -3.4 119.7 -3.4 161.5 -3.5 1,346.7 2.4 379.1 0.4 548.9 4.3 2003 107,661.6 7.8 30,597 5.0 41,044.0 6.9 3,518.7 2.6 58.0 1,701.6 4.3 292.6 3.1 120.0 0.3 169.9 5.2 1,408.9 4.6 392.4 3.5 582.8 6.2 2004 115,978.9 7.7 31,981 4.5 44,398.3 8.2 3,626.5 3.1 74.4 1,779.6 4.6 302.5 3.4 128.1 6.8 171.5 1.0 1,477.2 4.8 410.4 4.6 616.8 5.8 2005 125,483.2 8.2 33,540 4.9 47,890.0 7.9 3,741.3 3.2 80.4 1,871.0 5.1 319.9 5.8 137.3 7.2 179.8 4.9 1,551.1 5.0 429.7 4.7 654.7 6.1 2006 135,635.7 8.1 35,131 4.7 51,300.9 7.1 3,860.8 3.2 84.1 1,961.7 4.8 336.5 5.2 145.9 6.2 187.9 4.5 1,625.2 4.8 449.0 4.5 694.2 6.0 Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Per Capita Personal Income percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Net Migration (000s) Wage & Salary Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Construction percent change Manufacturing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade (Wholesale & Retail) percent change Services percent change 2000 20,715.4 7.8 23,921 5.3 8,502.1 8.2 866.0 2.4 15.3 350.4 4.1 56.7 4.9 21.9 1.6 33.0 7.8 293.7 4.0 72.6 2.5 119.3 5.7 2001 21,938.6 5.9 24,835 3.8 8,601.5 1.2 883.4 2.0 12.4 354.7 1.2 57.4 1.2 21.6 -1.3 34.0 2.9 297.4 1.3 72.7 0.3 120.9 1.3 2002 22,912.0 4.4 25,561 2.9 8,743.9 1.7 896.4 1.5 7.9 358.7 1.1 58.2 1.4 21.1 -2.3 35.5 4.6 300.5 1.1 72.1 -0.9 125.0 3.4 2003 24,462.9 6.8 26,770 4.7 9,289.5 6.2 913.8 1.9 12.1 370.2 3.2 58.8 1.1 21.3 1.2 36.0 1.3 311.4 3.6 74.5 3.3 131.2 5.0 2004 26,077.2 6.6 27,894 4.2 9,831.8 5.8 934.9 2.3 15.7 382.7 3.4 60.2 2.2 22.4 5.0 36.3 0.9 322.5 3.6 77.6 4.1 136.8 4.3 2005 27,775.2 6.5 29,038 4.1 10,395.6 5.7 956.5 2.3 16.3 395.5 3.4 61.6 2.3 23.6 5.2 36.6 0.7 333.9 3.5 80.4 3.7 143.1 4.6 2006 29,579.5 6.5 30,243 4.2 10,962.5 5.5 978.1 2.3 16.0 407.2 3.0 62.6 1.7 24.4 3.5 36.9 0.8 344.6 3.2 83.1 3.3 149.1 4.2 * Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Karl Eller Graduate School of Management, Eller College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona PA GE S IX ARIZONA’S ECONOMY AZECJan02.kp 12/30/01 6:08 PM Page 7 A R I Z O N A YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining (Mohave County only) Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months JUN 2001 JUL 2001 AUG 2001 SEP 2001 OCT 2001 70,175 50,300 19,875 28.3 69,825 49,300 20,525 29.4 69,925 47,850 22,075 31.6 67,100 48,125 18,975 28.3 64,425 48,825 15,600 24.2 -2.3 3.6 -16.9 -15.0 1.6 7.3 -13.2 -13.5 39,400 2,800 2,200 1,525 10,425 1,325 9,825 11,300 38,300 2,825 2,200 1,500 10,225 1,275 9,775 10,500 39,025 2,900 2,100 1,450 10,400 1,250 9,750 11,175 39,575 2,925 2,125 1,450 10,325 1,275 9,825 11,650 40,350 2,900 2,125 1,475 10,400 1,350 10,075 12,025 0.4 0.0 -4.5 -3.3 -3.5 -1.8 6.9 0.4 3.2 2.4 -0.9 2.4 1.4 3.8 5.3 4.3 79,042 59,682 9,114 10,246 6,265 16,518 72,971 55,679 7,771 9,521 6,754 14,043 71,805 54,486 8,483 8,836 6,805 17,943 80,444 63,053 8,724 8,667 6,293 17,427 ... ... ... ... ... ... 2.6 2.4 17.2 -7.4 2.2 21.5 3.0 2.6 8.0 1.3 -6.4 8.0 14,211 10,539 1,492 2,180 25,175 10,182 13,329 1,664 16,764 10,623 3,109 3,032 15,624 11,814 1,682 2,128 20,189 10,563 4,257 5,369 -34.0 -58.4 -10.4 986.8 -1.6 -22.3 52.3 9.5 104 104 95 95 111 111 155 75 101 101 -25.2 -24.1 -11.4 -11.1 75,750 72,400 3,350 4.4 75,775 72,825 2,950 3.9 75,725 72,475 3,250 4.3 75,625 72,400 3,225 4.3 74,650 71,525 3,125 4.2 4.4 4.1 10.6 6.0 6.2 6.4 1.5 -4.4 47,850 100 4,000 3,600 2,475 13,875 1,375 12,925 9,500 47,425 100 3,800 3,600 2,475 13,750 1,400 12,875 9,425 47,575 100 3,725 3,600 2,475 13,725 1,375 12,750 9,825 48,025 100 3,650 3,625 2,500 13,800 1,375 12,775 10,200 47,850 100 3,500 3,625 2,475 14,000 1,325 12,575 10,250 -0.9 0 -9.7 -2.0 4.2 -2.3 -8.6 1.0 2.2 4.1 -4.0 8.7 0.9 6.6 0.7 -4.8 7.2 5.5 124,249 92,311 13,429 18,509 11,317 27,724 110,309 79,728 13,379 17,202 12,203 22,634 106,391 77,320 13,661 15,410 11,868 28,861 102,916 76,300 13,283 13,333 9,680 26,596 ... ... ... ... ... ... 2.5 2.3 14.0 -5.6 4.2 -22.2 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.6 -1.6 -8.5 25,813 18,524 4,459 2,830 22,071 18,103 755 3,213 36,349 18,002 6,499 11,848 19,717 15,086 1,544 3,087 33,066 15,584 3,773 13,709 -22.1 -10.5 -15.0 -33.4 8.3 0.1 -30.2 77.0 188 184 180 174 179 179 152 148 153 149 -10.5 -10.8 1.2 1.4 See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table. ARIZONA’S ECONOMY PAGE SEVEN AZECJan02.kp 12/30/01 6:08 PM Page 8 A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C COCHISE COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses SANTA CRUZ COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months JUN 2001 JUL 2001 AUG 2001 SEP 2001 OCT 2001 40,800 39,025 1,775 4.4 40,850 39,200 1,650 4.0 40,675 39,000 1,675 4.1 40,950 39,200 1,750 4.3 40,850 39,000 1,850 4.5 2.5 2.1 12.1 9.4 3.3 3.5 -1.0 -4.1 31,825 1,875 950 1,300 7,575 750 8,150 11,225 31,575 1,925 900 1,325 7,600 775 8,200 10,850 32,100 1,875 900 1,325 7,675 775 8,200 11,350 32,550 1,875 1,000 1,300 7,650 750 8,250 11,725 32,425 1,825 925 1,300 7,675 800 8,150 11,750 -0.8 -5.2 -24.5 2.0 -0.6 3.2 -1.5 2.4 1.2 -2.5 -8.8 3.5 0.9 3.4 -1.2 4.5 62,379 48,772 7,061 6,546 4,003 11,457 59,658 46,974 6,815 5,869 4,163 13,026 57,676 45,643 6,648 5,385 4,147 10,385 57,038 44,744 7,027 5,267 3,824 10,076 ... ... ... ... ... ... 2.4 3.4 5.4 -8.2 1.4 -11.1 6.9 9.8 3.1 -8.4 -15.0 -13.3 10,332 7,703 218 2,411 9,352 3,676 175 5,501 6,941 5,275 999 667 9,132 4,111 3,625 1,396 12,245 6,033 4,848 1,364 -4.6 -14.5 ... -76.4 -33.2 -10.0 -50.9 -45.5 84 84 38 38 59 59 46 46 58 58 -23.7 -23.7 -10.9 0.5 13,700 12,200 1,500 10.9 13,850 11,975 1,875 13.5 14,525 12,025 2,500 17.2 14,475 11,825 2,650 18.3 14,600 11,800 2,800 19.2 2.5 3.3 -0.9 -3.3 3.9 6.9 -13.8 -16.6 12,375 400 1,025 1,325 4,050 225 1,900 3,450 11,975 400 975 1,225 3,975 200 1,850 3,350 12,275 400 975 1,225 4,000 200 1,825 3,650 12,250 425 950 1,225 3,950 225 1,850 3,625 12,225 375 975 1,250 3,925 225 1,875 3,600 0.6 -6.3 -4.9 6.4 0.6 0.0 1.4 0.7 4.3 3.8 4.1 11.5 -5.2 -4.5 6.3 14.4 27,257 21,362 2,618 3,277 2,004 4,607 26,062 20,521 2,452 3,089 2,191 3,978 25,957 20,246 2,662 3,049 2,348 4,620 23,910 19,087 2,239 2,584 1,876 4,039 ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.5 4.5 -13.1 -12.0 -2.8 -2.5 11.7 11.2 6.5 20.5 11.7 -3.5 7,212 3,432 495 3,285 2,885 2,586 0 299 5,175 4,427 748 0 2,206 2,131 75 0 4,413 4,173 240 0 -38.7 -40.6 140.0 -100.0 -18.6 -14.7 -57.6 30.7 27 27 22 22 43 43 21 21 28 28 -77.6 64.7 -35.8 1.7 See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table. PAGE EIGHT ARIZONA’S ECONOMY AZECJan02.kp 12/30/01 6:08 PM Page 9 A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C GILA COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining (Greenlee County only) Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months JUN 2001 JUL 2001 AUG 2001 SEP 2001 OCT 2001 17,600 16,600 1,000 5.7 17,500 16,575 925 5.3 17,625 16,650 975 5.5 17,250 16,425 825 4.8 17,425 16,425 1,000 5.7 2.0 1.7 8.1 5.9 0.9 1.0 -1.2 -2.1 14,100 650 1,075 1,125 450 3,300 275 2,650 4,575 13,900 675 1,025 1,100 450 3,300 275 2,675 4,400 14,025 650 1,000 1,075 450 3,275 275 2,750 4,550 14,000 650 1,000 1,050 450 3,225 275 2,675 4,675 14,050 650 975 1,075 450 3,350 275 2,650 4,625 -1.2 -3.7 -9.3 -2.3 -5.3 0.8 -8.3 3.9 -2.1 -0.9 -3.6 1.8 2.3 -9.9 -2.0 0.8 0.2 -0.7 29,372 21,297 4,710 3,365 2,058 9,123 27,076 18,767 4,562 3,747 2,658 7,037 30,635 22,050 4,482 4,103 3,160 9,717 26,103 18,993 4,014 3,096 2,248 9,891 ... ... ... ... ... ... 2.0 2.5 11.4 -10.5 -1.2 21.4 4.7 4.4 5.1 5.5 -1.9 10.1 5,304 4,910 0 394 5,295 2,576 1,563 1,156 14,642 5,333 3,150 6,159 5,339 4,411 185 743 35,599 2,555 544 32,500 1,133.9 -8.5 ... 34,846.2 12.2 -18.6 309.6 14.3 33 33 19 19 35 35 31 31 19 19 0.0 0.0 -22.0 -20.3 15,075 13,875 1,200 8.0 14,775 13,725 1,050 7.1 14,450 13,500 950 6.6 14,550 13,575 975 6.7 14,675 13,600 1,075 7.3 1.9 0.4 26.5 24.1 2.3 2.2 4.1 1.7 10,900 2,375 725 300 200 2,325 175 1,750 3,050 10,675 2,400 675 275 200 2,300 175 1,675 2,975 10,850 2,375 675 300 200 2,275 175 1,750 3,100 10,950 2,350 650 275 200 2,250 175 1,750 3,300 11,025 2,325 625 275 200 2,300 175 1,700 3,425 -3.1 -3.1 -30.6 -8.3 0.0 -3.2 0.0 -4.2 5.4 -1.5 -4.4 -6.0 -0.7 -11.9 0.9 1.2 -2.2 0.9 18,838 15,828 1,735 1,275 780 4,302 19,632 16,440 1,490 1,702 1,207 5,803 21,141 17,719 1,713 1,709 1,316 3,178 18,695 15,659 1,619 1,417 1,029 7,094 ... ... ... ... ... ... -19.3 -20.7 -5.7 -15.6 -6.8 159.9 2.5 4.6 -6.5 -6.3 -12.5 6.3 4,018 526 3,492 0 1,913 513 1,400 1,137 539 539 0 2,775 1,325 653 672 0 197 197 0 156 -82.1 -77.5 -100.0 -42.6 -17.1 -22.3 -9.6 66.7 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 2 2 -81.8 -81.8 -49.3 -21.9 See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table. ARIZONA’S ECONOMY PAGE NINE AZECJan02.kp 12/30/01 6:08 PM Page 10 A R I Z O N A APACHE-NAVAJO REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months JUN 2001 JUL 2001 AUG 2001 SEP 2001 OCT 2001 52,750 45,725 7,025 13.3 53,250 46,475 6,775 12.7 52,150 47,125 5,025 9.6 51,025 46,625 4,400 8.6 50,750 46,175 4,575 9.0 1.2 2.4 -9.4 -10.5 0.9 2.0 -7.4 -8.1 45,475 900 2,175 1,175 2,550 8,325 1,325 7,650 21,375 45,650 925 2,075 1,150 2,575 8,375 1,350 7,650 21,550 46,725 900 2,075 1,100 2,575 8,300 1,350 7,800 22,625 46,700 925 1,950 1,100 2,575 8,325 1,350 7,800 22,675 46,275 875 1,900 1,075 2,475 8,325 1,325 7,625 22,675 -0.8 -2.8 -14.6 -8.5 -2.9 -1.8 -5.4 -2.6 2.7 -0.1 -1.6 0.5 -3.2 0.6 2.4 -1.2 -2.5 -0.1 79,436 60,102 7,115 12,219 7,471 19,588 76,221 56,810 7,416 11,995 8,509 16,604 76,043 58,065 7,477 10,501 8,088 17,859 74,005 56,386 7,099 10,520 7,638 20,041 ... ... ... ... ... ... 2.4 3.5 8.1 -6.2 3.6 -17.4 -9.0 -11.7 1.9 -0.1 -6.3 3.3 36,951 13,681 4,024 19,246 19,789 9,680 769 9,340 24,492 20,971 871 2,650 15,046 7,345 4,278 3,423 37,562 11,000 14,779 11,783 -12.6 3.7 -32.7 13.3 -19.5 -6.7 -43.3 -9.1 113 113 63 63 184 164 54 54 84 84 1.2 1.2 -6.3 -8.3 137,625 131,825 5,800 4.2 137,875 132,550 5,325 3.9 135,750 131,075 4,675 3.4 137,500 132,925 4,575 3.3 137,300 132,475 4,825 3.5 3.7 3.6 6.0 2.2 4.8 5.1 -4.1 -8.4 112,025 1,200 8,750 5,925 3,025 27,325 3,175 33,400 29,225 110,800 1,200 8,700 5,850 3,075 27,325 3,125 33,600 27,925 110,600 1,175 8,775 5,775 3,100 27,200 3,100 33,125 28,350 113,475 1,175 8,850 5,750 3,050 27,350 3,225 32,775 31,300 113,425 1,175 8,850 5,700 3,100 27,425 3,250 32,350 31,575 0.8 -2.1 3.5 -4.6 3.3 -1.1 5.7 -0.3 3.4 3.1 6.5 9.2 -1.6 2.1 1.3 3.3 5.6 1.3 241,345 171,142 42,336 27,867 17,039 57,737 231,779 160,853 40,636 30,290 21,487 60,258 234,501 168,071 41,234 25,196 19,405 57,786 216,153 151,666 40,259 24,228 17,591 64,129 ... ... ... ... ... ... -0.9 -0.2 2.5 -9.7 -0.3 8.5 1.9 2.3 -3.7 8.7 1.8 3.8 61,471 31,706 12,382 17,383 60,269 38,637 12,676 8,956 59,014 41,698 11,642 5,674 41,146 30,894 5,757 4,495 79,885 54,679 15,345 9,861 53.7 42.6 84.2 86.1 -4.5 6.6 -27.1 -11.2 234 228 280 264 304 284 233 193 516 271 120.5 17.8 14.4 6.3 See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table. PAGE TEN ARIZONA’S ECONOMY AZECJan02.kp 12/30/01 6:08 PM Page 11 A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Nondurable Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Wholesale Retail Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail Food, EBR Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Awards Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units 2-4 Unit Structures 5-plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements I N D I C A T O R S JUN 2001 JUL 2001 AUG 2001 SEP 2001 OCT 2001 1,634.1 1,573.1 61.0 3.6 1,631.0 1,573.6 57.4 3.3 1,638.5 1,571.9 66.6 3.7 1,642.2 1,570.3 71.9 4.0 1,654.7 1,576.5 78.2 4.6 4.1 1.9 84.9 76.9 4.1 3.4 26.8 20.7 1,579.2 2.6 124.4 162.3 126.1 36.2 85.1 378.5 92.1 286.4 123.6 517.3 185.4 1,561.5 2.5 123.8 161.8 125.6 36.2 84.9 373.6 91.5 282.1 123.6 509.8 181.5 1,572.4 2.5 122.9 160.4 124.8 35.6 84.8 375.0 91.5 283.5 123.4 509.9 193.5 1,586.9 2.5 121.4 158.2 123.6 34.6 84.7 379.2 91.9 287.3 123.1 508.7 209.1 1,596.1 2.5 120.4 157.1 122.4 34.7 83.7 384.1 90.5 293.6 123.9 510.1 214.3 -0.9 -3.8 -2.3 -5.4 -5.1 -6.2 -2.3 2.3 -0.9 3.3 1.4 -3.5 3.6 1.6 -0.3 3.2 -1.0 -0.2 -3.7 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.1 2.3 0.9 3.6 3,224,307 2,298,696 388,570 356,373 180,668 787,765 2,867,301 2,019,465 366,534 317,435 163,867 698,924 2,955,898 2,106,477 372,301 318,723 158,397 715,874 2,947,896 2,080,331 384,022 326,585 156,958 668,849 ... ... ... ... ... ... -3.9 -4.7 4.5 -4.6 -9.8 -2.8 3.5 2.5 5.8 4.5 10.2 2.9 929,119 481,443 216,030 231,646 773,810 384,494 314,545 74,771 782,345 464,434 154,195 163,716 1,331,882 401,330 173,375 757,177 758,695 413,813 222,794 122,088 -9.3 -15.4 -7.2 13.7 -4.9 -10.7 -10.1 41.8 4,061 3,170 90 801 3,708 2,919 86 703 3,741 3,223 74 444 3,995 2,753 58 1,184 2,475 2,375 27 73 -26.6 -5.6 -60.3 -90.7 -7.1 -1.0 2.0 -26.8 1,151,374 6,384 180,353 980,131 5,592 175,274 1,000,462 5,702 175,458 851,218 4,939 172,346 ... 4,528 ... 8.1 1.5 0.4 13.7 11.0 3.5 3,180,226 47,013 3,403,743 48,126 3,268,184 48,756 1,964,811 38,379 2,670,110 44,940 -9.5 -6.8 1.0 -2.8 PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Births Deaths Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents Plus: Transfer Payments Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table. ARIZONA’S ECONOMY % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent quarter 4-quarters III 2000 IV 2000 I 2001 II 2001 III 2001 3,272.9 8.0 13.9 5.9 14.8 3,297.0 8.1 14.0 6.0 16.0 3,319.1 8.3 14.3 6.0 13.9 3,340.0 8.3 14.4 6.1 12.6 3,360.0 8.3 14.4 6.1 11.7 2.7 4.2 3.8 3.3 -21.3 2.8 5.5 4.4 2.8 -20.6 91,406 68,929 4,355 -92 16,851 10,074 27,928 92,579 69,942 4,426 -92 16,829 10,326 28,080 94,272 71,264 4,513 -91 17,067 10,545 28,402 95,267 72,173 4,578 -91 16,955 10,807 28,523 96,249 73,080 4,642 -90 16,835 11,067 28,645 5.3 6.0 6.6 2.1 -0.1 9.9 2.6 6.3 6.9 7.3 3.6 2.2 9.5 3.3 PAGE ELEVEN AZECJan02.kp 12/30/01 6:08 PM Page 12 A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Nondurable Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Wholesale Retail Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail Food, EBR Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Awards Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR Total Units Single Family Units 2-5-plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, TAR Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Tucson International Airport, TAA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements I N D I C A T O R S OCT 2001 JUN 2001 JUL 2001 AUG 2001 SEP 2001 397.7 385.1 12.6 3.1 393.0 380.9 12.1 2.9 395.8 382.9 12.9 3.0 401.9 387.5 14.4 3.3 404.3 388.6 15.7 3.7 4.7 3.5 49.5 42.3 2.9 2.9 5.3 2.2 349.2 1.8 21.6 33.7 28.8 4.9 12.0 73.1 10.9 62.2 14.1 120.5 72.4 341.4 1.8 21.6 33.9 29.0 4.9 11.8 72.0 10.9 61.1 14.1 118.6 67.6 345.6 1.8 21.6 33.9 29.1 4.8 11.9 72.5 10.9 61.6 14.1 118.3 71.5 353.4 1.8 21.7 33.7 29.0 4.7 11.5 73.1 10.9 62.2 14.2 118.0 79.4 355.0 1.8 21.6 33.6 28.9 4.7 11.1 74.1 10.9 63.2 14.3 117.5 81.0 0.8 -5.3 -1.4 0.0 2.1 -11.3 -6.7 2.3 0.0 2.8 3.6 -1.2 4.0 1.1 -2.2 -1.5 2.1 4.0 -8.0 -0.6 1.7 -0.2 2.0 -0.2 1.1 1.6 682,097 462,961 94,260 80,148 44,728 136,508 667,156 459,491 88,915 74,222 44,528 135,110 711,653 500,246 90,314 78,249 42,845 123,923 655,003 444,261 93,157 76,568 41,017 127,714 ... ... ... ... ... ... -4.1 -4.3 2.1 -3.3 -15.0 3.7 3.7 3.4 4.3 3.9 5.8 3.5 135,007 83,952 43,139 7,916 118,074 86,739 16,302 15,033 100,214 80,443 12,095 7,676 129,566 80,979 40,938 7,649 124,781 84,125 16,257 24,399 -24.7 0.9 -61.3 -39.6 -21.0 -9.7 -35.0 -45.5 570 551 18 791 542 249 601 551 50 616 582 34 717 562 155 34.8 15.6 239.4 -7.3 -2.2 -28.7 190,666 1,175 162,269 199,530 1,192 167,391 184,893 1,102 167,779 136,368 857 159,122 139,189 910 152,955 12.5 11.0 1.4 9.7 4.9 4.6 308,846 21,876 322,075 21,581 310,583 22,210 185,443 15,324 274,529 22,930 -14.2 5.4 4.4 -0.4 TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Births Deaths Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents Plus: Transfer Payments Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months III 2001 % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent quarter 4-quarters III 2000 IV 2000 I 2001 II 2001 868.1 1.2 3.1 1.8 3.3 873.1 1.2 3.1 1.8 3.8 877.5 1.2 3.1 1.9 3.1 881.3 1.2 3.1 1.9 2.6 884.8 1.2 3.1 1.9 2.3 1.9 0.2 1.4 2.2 -30.9 2.1 0.9 2.0 2.7 -21.0 20,887 13,346 799 149 5,014 3,177 24,061 21,178 13,536 811 152 5,051 3,250 24,256 21,566 13,766 825 155 5,159 3,310 24,577 21,821 13,943 836 158 5,168 3,387 24,759 22,065 14,125 848 162 5,163 3,464 24,937 5.6 5.8 6.2 8.4 3.0 9.0 3.6 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.0 4.5 8.6 4.1 See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table. PAGE TWELVE ARIZONA’S ECONOMY AZECJan02.kp 12/30/01 6:08 PM Page 13 A R I Z O N A ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Nondurable Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Transportation Trade Wholesale Retail Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Federal State & Local Schools Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES Construction Manufacturing Utilities Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Sales ($000s) ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail Food, EBR Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Utilities Communications Amusements Rentals - Personal Property Contracting Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas Hotel/Motel Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) Total Awards Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units 2-4 Unit Structures 5-plus Unit Structures Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court Total Chapter 7 Chapter 11 Chapter 13 E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months JUN 2001 JUL 2001 AUG 2001 SEP 2001 OCT 2001 2,455.3 2,340.1 115.2 4.3 2,447.7 2,337.1 110.6 3.9 2,455.1 2,334.5 120.6 4.2 2,462.6 2,338.9 123.7 4.7 2,473.5 2,344.8 128.7 5.2 3.9 2.3 42.7 36.8 3.8 3.6 9.5 5.6 2,248.2 9.6 168.1 212.9 166.2 46.7 110.0 73.2 531.5 112.7 418.8 146.7 719.0 350.4 47.1 303.3 146.8 40.0 2,219.3 9.5 166.9 212.0 165.6 46.4 109.8 72.9 525.6 112.2 413.4 146.8 709.5 339.2 47.2 292.0 134.0 39.9 2,236.9 9.5 166.1 210.9 165.1 45.8 109.6 72.8 527.2 111.9 415.3 146.6 708.9 358.1 47.3 310.8 155.5 39.9 2,264.1 9.4 164.3 208.6 163.8 44.8 109.2 72.4 532.0 112.5 419.5 146.4 707.3 386.9 47.1 339.8 185.2 39.8 2,275.0 9.4 163.1 207.2 162.3 44.9 107.7 71.0 538.2 111.2 427.0 147.3 707.7 394.4 46.8 347.6 192.7 39.7 -0.4 -4.1 -2.3 -4.3 -3.7 -6.1 -2.4 -2.7 2.0 -0.8 2.7 1.5 -2.6 3.7 1.1 4.1 4.6 -2.5 1.6 -2.4 2.9 -0.4 0.6 -3.6 1.5 2.8 1.9 1.4 2.0 2.0 1.2 2.8 -3.3 3.7 3.8 -0.8 15.24 13.07 21.05 11.50 14.35 15.24 13.21 21.16 11.59 14.21 15.00 13.24 21.02 11.71 14.27 15.15 13.43 21.22 11.95 14.20 15.28 13.38 21.65 11.88 13.79 -1.2 5.4 9.2 5.8 -5.5 4.6 2.0 10.7 -0.2 2.8 4,682,631 3,252,153 597,138 524,639 308,701 188,750 561,780 234,394 60,342 333,800 1,075,329 24,516 133,377 4,265,991 2,934,728 563,275 476,178 291,810 207,002 600,033 229,772 61,962 274,698 977,417 18,678 96,062 4,401,221 3,070,323 572,137 483,332 275,430 212,130 602,046 233,689 47,524 279,136 990,146 18,128 102,417 4,315,133 2,970,480 590,150 487,417 267,086 193,920 599,561 252,030 44,520 290,454 955,856 19,600 100,761 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... -5.4 -3.9 3.0 -18.7 -10.3 -0.9 6.4 6.8 5.2 -0.6 -1.4 -61.4 -25.9 3.3 2.6 5.7 2.1 7.8 0.6 6.8 9.4 -1.4 4.0 2.6 -43.3 -2.4 1,229,438 656,416 285,731 287,291 1,039,770 557,186 361,514 121,070 1,049,250 651,745 193,308 204,197 1,570,983 558,754 232,131 780,098 1,106,788 602,722 282,837 221,229 -7.4 -11.6 -12.2 16.0 -7.1 -9.7 -14.3 20.6 5,292 4,291 107 894 5,107 4,106 101 900 5,070 4,479 123 468 5,140 3,849 102 1,189 3,854 3,574 74 206 -14.1 -0.5 -15.9 -74.5 -5.8 -0.5 4.0 -27.3 2,071 1,665 25 381 2,000 1,599 30 371 2,314 1,880 23 410 1,970 1,565 18 386 2,313 1,850 19 444 32.5 26.1 -24.0 75.5 16.4 16.3 -24.9 21.3 See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table. ARIZONA’S ECONOMY PAGE THIRTEEN AZECJan02.kp 12/30/01 6:08 PM Page 14 A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Births Deaths Net Migration Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents Plus: Transfer Payments Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA Wages and Salaries Other Labor Income Proprietor's Income Farm Nonfarm Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR I N D I C A T O R S III 2000 IV 2000 I 2001 II 2001 III 2001 5,167.9 10.9 21.3 10.4 24.9 5,203.8 11.4 21.5 10.0 24.5 5,239.3 11.3 21.3 10.0 23.6 5,274.1 11.3 21.5 10.2 23.6 5,307.9 11.2 21.5 10.3 21.5 2.7 2.6 1.0 -0.7 -13.5 2.8 4.4 2.6 0.7 -8.0 131,485 93,715 5,752 453 25,809 17,259 134,641 96,260 5,888 463 26,239 17,567 136,746 97,887 6,039 470 26,248 18,180 137,651 98,699 6,082 473 26,039 18,522 139,292 99,868 6,145 478 26,213 18,878 5.9 6.6 6.8 5.5 1.6 9.4 6.6 7.2 7.3 8.7 3.0 8.7 76,517 7,565 9,761 435 9,326 25,442 33,292 77,976 7,706 9,799 361 9,438 25,874 33,808 78,994 7,787 10,003 427 9,576 26,100 34,090 79,651 7,827 10,111 335 9,777 26,099 34,501 ... ... ... ... ... 26,242 ... 6.4 5.4 4.6 -15.4 5.5 3.1 4.9 7.5 6.2 5.6 -11.7 6.5 3.7 4.5 TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA JUN 2001 Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB Northern Arizona Historical Scenic Water Based Recreation Southern Arizona Historical Scenic Water Based Recreation International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS U.S. Citizens Aliens Vehicles JUL 2001 AUG 2001 SEP 2001 OCT 2001 % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months 2,280,289 160,531 727,295 1,392,463 167,968 26,306 97,589 44,073 2,557,572 165,229 833,480 1,558,863 174,738 30,206 93,894 50,638 2,438,480 148,773 754,409 1,535,298 145,938 26,274 82,482 37,182 1,732,281 128,767 493,916 1,109,598 137,612 23,395 79,188 35,029 1,275,019 124,478 407,089 743,452 180,599 33,552 113,899 33,148 -24.0 -20.5 -19.4 -26.8 -2.6 2.9 -12.0 41.5 -5.4 -6.4 -6.2 -4.9 1.9 1.5 1.9 2.3 660,078 1,863,100 919,582 640,828 1,756,335 921,357 655,384 1,841,188 ... 542,812 1,551,998 ... 708,237 1,447,596 ... -10.6 -31.0 4.7 -11.1 -7.6 7.2 MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS U.S. - All Urban U.S. - Wage Earners % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent quarter 4-quarters JUN 2001 JUL 2001 AUG 2001 SEP 2001 178.0 174.6 177.5 173.8 177.5 173.8 178.3 174.8 OCT 2001 177.7 174.0 % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months 2.1 2.0 3.1 3.1 Sources and abbreviations: ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce PA GE F OU R TEE N BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce EBR: Economic & Business Research Program, The University of Arizona F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission) NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior NSCCC: Nogales-Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates TAA: Tucson Airport Authority TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service, U.S. Department of Justice U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department of the Treasury ARIZONA’S ECONOMY AZECJan02.kp 12/30/01 6:08 PM Page 15 A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS Western Region (U.S.) U.S. - All Urban Consumers U.S. - Urban Wage Earners Price Indexes (1992=100) BEA Gross Domestic Product Personal Consumption Expenditures III 2001 % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent quarter 4-quarters III 2000 IV 2000 I 2001 II 2001 176.6 173.1 169.7 177.1 174.0 170.7 180.1 175.7 172.2 182.0 177.5 174.2 182.5 177.8 174.1 3.3 2.7 2.6 3.9 3.2 3.2 107.3 107.8 107.8 108.4 108.7 109.2 109.2 109.6 109.5 109.7 2.0 1.7 2.2 2.2 See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table. 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