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2 0 0 1

THE GOOD NEWS
...AND BAD NEWS
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
August 25, 2001

M

easures for Arizona’s economy
were disappointing during the
second quarter. The job market
deteriorated significantly and is now
showing the weakest readings since the
1990-91 recession. Personal income for
the first quarter was also weak due to
the absence of stock options and bonuses.
Consumers, meanwhile, remain relatively sanguine with housing markets
and retailers benefiting. In the coming
months, the economy could go either
way. It’s a race between the inventory
correction in tech goods, which some
say is nearing an end, and mounting
layoffs. If consumers begin to notice
and cut back spending, the economy
could lapse into recession. The best bet,
however, continues to be a “soft landing”
slowdown, with momentum swinging
upward in the coming weeks.
In our annual update of the 25-year
outlook, we project nearly 9. 5 million
people living in Arizona by 2026, and
that’s one million more than contained
in last year’s long-term update. That
sounds like a huge revision—until one
considers that fully one-quarter million
are already here (Census counts found
more people than analysts expected)!
RECENT EVIDENCE
The coincident index published by the
Conference Board —the best current
measure of the U. S. economy—has been

F A L L

stuck on a plateau since September of last
year. A flat line. The bad news is, there has
been virtually no growth. The good news
is, the economy has not declined. Resilient
consumers and their spending have just offset weakness in the corporate sector, which
is suffering one of the worst profits recessions
in recent memory.
No such single measure exists for Arizona,
but data do exist for three of its four components. Exhibits 1-3 update charts first
shown six months ago in the April issue of
Arizona’s Economy. Nonagricultural employment not only has stopped growing, it has
actually fallen by a seasonally adjusted 20,000
since February (Exhibit 1). Year-over-year
growth has plunged from four percent to near
zero in July. If these declines survive future
revisions, it will mark the first sustained
decline in Arizona’s aggregate employment
since 1982.
Manufacturing, business services, construction and the federal government account for
the slide. Manufacturing has lost 7,500 jobs
since January—an amount comparable to
the losses sustained during the second half of
1998 during the Asian crisis. Business services
payrolls are down 21,000 over the same
period. This category contains temporary
help and contract employees whose numbers
increased significantly in recent years as the
“contingent workforce” grew. Many high tech
services and “dot-com” companies also are
counted in business services. Even though
construction activity remains at high levels,

Outlook

2002
2003

I S S U E

EXHIBIT 1
Employment Is Now Declining
Nonag Employment, AZ
(seasonally adjusted)

the construction industry trimmed about
5,000 jobs during the past year. Finally, some
4,000 temporary Census workers (counted
in federal government) have vanished from
current counts.
Most of the job losses are in the PhoenixMesa metro area. In July, nonag payrolls were
only 1,500 higher than one year earlier, after
losing 18,000 between February and July.
Tucson is faring much better, where manufacturing job counts are 700 higher than a
year ago, and construction is down only 400.
The weakness in Tucson’s job counts comes
from education, which has trimmed a reported 2,300 during the past year. This is likely
due to a chronic problem counting teachers
during the summer, which hopefully will be
corrected in future revisions.

I N S I D E

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
DECEMBER LUNCHEON ..........4
FORECAST TABLES ................5
ECONOMIC INDICATORS ........6

EL LE R CO LL E GE O F B U S IN E SS A ND PU B LI C A D MI N I ST RA TI ON

T UCSON, ARIZONA

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EXHIBIT 2
First Quarter Missing
Bonuses, Stock Options

EXHIBIT 3
Consumers Are Holding
Their Own So Far

Personal Income Less Transfers, AZ, 1996 dollars, SAAR

Real Retail Sales, AZ, 1999 dollars, SAAR, smoothed

As expected, Arizona personal income
during the first quarter 2001 was weak,
registering a gain of only 5.2% from yearearlier levels. After subtracting transfer payments and adjusting for inflation, the gain was
more like 2.5% (Exhibit 2). Absent were
an estimated $4-4.5 billion in income from
stock options and bonuses that were paid out
during the first quarter of 2000. Adjusting the
year earlier figure for that amount, personal
income would have grown in this year’s first
quarter by 8-8.5%.
The industry accounting for the lion’s share
of the income drop was services, where wage
and salary disbursements declined by 3.6%
from year-earlier. Manufacturing, wholesale
trade, and FIRE (finance, insurance and real
estate) also showed significant reductions
in growth.
Consumer spending continues growing, but
just barely. Gains in Arizona retail sales have
slowed in recent months into the 3.5-4.0%
range from the 7-8% range last summer. After
adjusting for price increases, retail sales in
real terms have barely grown at all during the
past year (Exhibit 3). Retail sales data are
notoriously volatile, meaning that they contain
a good deal of “noise” which dominates
changes from month to month. Here, we have
seasonally adjusted the data and smoothed
the result with a four-period centered moving
PAGE TWO

average. This provides the best portrayal of
the underlying trend.
During the 1990-91 recession, real retail
sales in Arizona declined at a five percent
annual rate, and by more than 20% during
the 1981-82 recession. So, by comparison,
consumers are holding their own so far.
Other major indicators of consumer
spending reflect housing market conditions.
Residential construction remains at high
levels, having lost only five percent during the
past year (using a 12-month vs. 12-month
comparison). Resale housing markets are
also quite strong with sales moving higher
in recent months.
Consumer confidence, meanwhile, remains
high relative to readings from the 1990-91
recession. What seems to matter most to
consumers is unemployment and inflation.
The late economist Arthur Okun suggested a
“discomfort” index that was simply the sum
of the rate of inflation and the unemployment
rate. This relationship is plotted on an inverted
scale along with U. S. consumer confidence
in Exhibit 4. It is no wonder that confidence
remains high with inflation less than 3.4%
and the unemployment rate near record lows
at 4.2%. Inflation is trending downward due
to the slowdown and declining energy prices.
This means that the unemployment rate would
need to rise four full percentage points for

the discomfort index (and confidence) to
fall to recession levels.
In July, Arizona’s unemployment rate
plunged from 4.3% to 3.9%. That is counter
intuitive, given declining nonag jobs. Some
analysts have suggested that marginal workers
—those who were the last to enter the labor
market or those with minimal skills—are
simply dropping out of the labor force and
thereby are no longer being counted. That
doesn’t appear to be the case in Arizona,
however, as the civilian labor force has been
increasing robustly in recent months, adding
nearly 100,000 during the past year. Gains in
total employment account for recent increases
in the labor force.
Total employment differs from nonagricultural employment as the former derives from
a survey of households, while the latter is
a survey of establishments. There also are
differences in definition. Total employment
counts the number of persons who are working by place of residence, while the nonag
measure is a count of the number of jobs by
place of work. Total employment basically
includes all of those who work for wages and
salaries plus the self employed plus domestic
and unpaid family workers plus agricultural
workers.
The two measures can diverge for a number
of reasons. For example, if a person gets laid
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

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EXHIBIT 4
Unemployment and
Inflation Matter

EXHIBIT 5
Two Employment Measures Diverge
Job Growth, AZ
(Establishment and Household Surveys)

Consumer Confidence and the Discomfort Index

off and becomes a “consultant” working from
home, nonag jobs would decline but total
employment would remain the same. During
the past decade, total employment has swung
widely, showing increases of 250,000 in 1995
followed by declines of 50,000 only two
years later. Meanwhile, the nonag estimates
were showing stable gains of 100,000 or so
(Exhibit 5).
Now, as new nonag jobs move toward zero,
the household measure shows a gain of
100,000. As such, the household measure has
lost its following and is no longer a useful
indicator of employment trends. One can
reasonably expect, however, that household
employment will plummet in coming months,
and the unemployment rate will move upward.

THE OUTLOOK—
NEAR TERM AND FAR
Current measures show an economy precariously balanced between growth and
recession. With luck, this will be as bad as
it gets. Both monetary and fiscal policies are
stimulative, as evidenced by lower interest
rates, rapidly expanding money supply, a
positively sloped yield curve, and tax rebate
checks that are being delivered during the
third quarter. Energy and gasoline prices are
falling, thereby adding to households’ discretionary income. Other positive developments
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

include recent surveys of manufacturing
executives who feel confident that the inventory cycle is almost over. Additionally, the
leading index, which is designed to foretell
the economy’s future path, has increased
four consecutive months though July.
All these factors argue for a resumption of
growth in the coming weeks. The “recovery”
will likely be subdued, however, for the simple
reason that consumer spending and homebuilding will not provide a strong upswing,
since they remain at high levels and therefore have little upside potential.
Our forecast for Arizona shows modest

growth in employment of 2.7% this year and
an average of 2.5% over the next five years.
That’s roughly 60,000 new jobs per year.
Growth rates for population are nearly identical as 140-145,000 persons are added each
year. Residential building permits settle in to
a range of 50-55,000 per year. Retail sales
increase by 5.4% this year and average 5.4%
over the following five years. Personal income
grows by 6.2% this year and an average 5.1%
from ’01 through ’06 (see forecast table on
page 5).
If a full recession develops, growth rates
would fall nearer to zero—similar to readings

EXHIBIT 6
Long Run Outlook
With Alternatives
Wage & Salary
Job Growth, AZ
(Alternative Scenarios)

PA GE TH RE E

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during the short and mild 1990-91 recession.
The economy’s path remains below its longrun potential through the end of this decade
before returning to trend growth (Exhibit 6).
Over the next five years, Arizona’s population should swell by 718,000 (to more than
six million) and some 309,000 jobs will be
created. This reflects annual growth rates
of 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively.
By the year 2026, Arizona will be home to
some 9.4 million people, compared to 5.3
million today. Phoenix will account for 5.9
million and Tucson 1.4 million. In 2026,
Arizona will have roughly the same population
as today’s Michigan and New Jersey (the
nation’s 8th and 9th largest). Phoenix will
compare to today’s Philadelphia (6th largest)
and Boston (7th) metro areas. Phoenix is
currently the 14th largest. (Exhibit 7).
In summary, Arizona will continue to be
one of the fastest-growing states in the nation
over the longer term. Near term, the current
malaise has brought Arizona’s economy the
slowest growth in two decades. Hopefully,
this will be as bad as it gets. ■

S P O N S O R S

Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee
Arizona Portland Cement Company
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One Arizona
CB Richard Ellis
City of Mesa
City of Tucson
Compass Bank
Elliott D. Pollack and Company
KB Home
Jim Click Automotive Team
Merrill Lynch
Northern Trust Bank of Arizona
Pima County
Qwest Communications
Qwest Dex
Salt River Project
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Healthcare Council
Tucson Newspapers

PA GE F OU R

EXHIBIT 7
Forecasts to 2026
1996

2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

W&S Employment (000s)

1,892

2,313

2,622

2,954

3,470

4,044

4,699

Population (000s)

4,546

5,294

6,012

6,747

7,597

8,495

9,445

Arizona

Personal Income ($ millions)

95,787 139,493 178,752

228,820 312,149 428,435 591,143

Retail Sales ($ millions)

40,308

57,392

72,508

W&S Employment (000s)

1,312

1,626

1,851

2,045

2,375

2,737

3,145

Population (000s)

2,836

3,358

3,819

4,260

4,784

5,335

5,914

89,526 121,583 164,630 223,927

Phoenix-Mesa MA

Personal Income ($ millions)

64,964

97,124 128,559

163,997 233,110 331,368 465,235

Retail Sales ($ millions)

27,330

39,386

51,689

62,716

W&S Employment (000s)

307

359

402

440

492

548

604

Population (000s)

777

886

983

1,073

1,175

1,274

1,364

15,985

22,006

29,203

37,481

51,222

69,982

93,949

6,586

8,921

11,276

13,891

18,166

23,676

30,429

88,023 122,988 170,516

Tucson Metro Area

Personal Income ($ millions)
Retail Sales ($ millions)

The University of Arizona • Eller College of Business and Public Administration’s

2002-2003

Economic
Outlook
Luncheon
Friday, December 14th
Noon - 2pm
Westin La Paloma
Tucson

Presentations by:
Marshall J. Vest
Economic and Business
Research Program
Gerald J. Swanson
Economics Department
Mark Zupan
Dean, Eller College of Business
and Public Administration

Reserve now and save:
$50 per person; $500 per table of 10*
After November 1:
$60 per person; $600 per table of 10*
Reservations required. Call 621-9954
for information and reservations.
*Fee is not a charitable contribution.

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

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F O R E C A S T

T A B L E S

Compound Annual
Growth Rates
96-01 01-06 96-06
7.8
5.1
6.4

Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1996
95,787.0
7.8
21,072.9
3.9
40,308.4
7.0
4,545.5
3.7
118.7
1,892.1
5.4
340.1
4.2
126.2
5.4
200.0
3.2
1,552.0
5.6
464.4
4.5
560.8
8.0

2001
139,492.8
6.2
26,346.8
3.3
57,391.6
5.6
5,294.5
2.8
99.7
2,312.6
2.7
395.5
2.2
169.5
5.1
216.1
0.0
1,917.0
2.8
539.0
2.4
741.9
3.3

2002
148,044.4
6.1
27,230.8
3.4
60,542.1
5.5
5,436.6
2.7
97.3
2,374.2
2.7
394.7
-0.2
168.5
-0.6
215.8
-0.1
1,979.5
3.3
558.7
3.7
770.4
3.8

2003
156,049.6
5.4
27,964.0
2.7
64,028.0
5.8
5,580.4
2.6
98.9
2,432.7
2.5
402.1
1.9
170.2
1.0
221.4
2.6
2,030.7
2.6
571.1
2.2
796.6
3.4

2004
163,405.6
4.7
28,553.5
2.1
66,867.9
4.4
5,722.8
2.6
98.8
2,495.8
2.6
413.1
2.7
172.9
1.6
229.8
3.8
2,082.7
2.6
580.9
1.7
824.6
3.5

2005
170,778.7
4.5
29,105.2
1.9
69,520.0
4.0
5,867.6
2.5
99.7
2,556.4
2.4
424.3
2.7
176.9
2.3
236.9
3.1
2,132.2
2.4
589.2
1.4
850.2
3.1

2006
178,751.9
4.7
29,731.5
2.2
72,507.9
4.3
6,012.2
2.5
100.4
2,622.4
2.6
434.2
2.3
180.7
2.2
242.9
2.5
2,188.2
2.6
603.3
2.4
876.9
3.1

Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1996
64,964.3
8.7
22,906.0
4.3
27,330.4
9.4
2,836.1
4.2
87.8
1,312.5
7.1
251.0
5.1
90.2
6.5
154.4
4.1
1,061.5
7.6
325.6
6.6
403.1
10.4

2001
97,123.7
6.2
28,921.1
3.2
39,385.6
5.6
3,358.2
2.9
62.8
1,625.5
2.7
292.3
1.4
120.5
2.7
169.0
0.6
1,333.3
3.0
388.9
3.4
528.4
2.9

2002
102,864.2
5.9
29,813.0
3.1
41,523.1
5.4
3,450.3
2.7
59.6
1,670.8
2.8
293.9
0.6
120.1
-0.3
171.1
1.2
1,376.9
3.3
402.3
3.4
547.7
3.7

2003
108,760.5
5.7
30,703.0
3.0
44,396.2
6.9
3,542.3
2.7
60.1
1,716.0
2.7
296.9
1.0
119.7
-0.3
174.5
2.0
1,419.1
3.1
415.4
3.3
566.3
3.4

2004
115,335.0
6.0
31,725.3
3.3
47,080.6
6.0
3,635.4
2.6
61.4
1,765.8
2.9
303.7
2.3
121.0
1.1
180.0
3.1
1,462.1
3.0
425.3
2.4
587.4
3.7

2005
121,744.9
5.6
32,655.1
2.9
49,364.4
4.9
3,728.2
2.6
61.0
1,809.5
2.5
309.9
2.0
123.1
1.7
184.1
2.3
1,499.5
2.6
432.8
1.8
605.6
3.1

2006
128,559.5
5.6
33,664.7
3.1
51,689.0
4.7
3,818.8
2.4
58.6
1,851.3
2.3
314.8
1.6
124.9
1.5
187.1
1.6
1,536.5
2.5
440.8
1.8
622.9
2.9

96-01
8.4

Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1996
15,984.9
6.4
20,572.6
3.8
6,586.3
4.5
777.0
2.5
14.5
307.2
1.5
49.5
-0.1
19.2
-0.9
28.1
0.3
257.7
1.8
67.0
-1.2
95.7
4.8

2001
22,006.4
6.2
24,831.4
3.7
8,921.1
4.9
886.2
2.3
15.3
358.7
2.3
57.8
1.7
21.7
-0.6
34.2
3.6
300.9
2.4
73.6
1.3
122.9
3.1

2002
23,424.4
6.4
25,869.3
4.2
9,368.7
5.0
905.5
2.2
14.2
368.6
2.8
59.8
3.5
21.9
0.7
36.1
5.5
308.8
2.6
75.6
2.8
127.6
3.8

2003
24,787.7
5.8
26,789.3
3.6
9,851.7
5.2
925.3
2.2
14.5
377.5
2.4
60.7
1.5
22.2
1.6
36.6
1.6
316.8
2.6
77.5
2.6
132.0
3.4

2004
26,234.1
5.8
27,766.2
3.6
10,311.9
4.7
944.8
2.1
14.3
386.7
2.5
61.7
1.6
22.6
1.9
37.1
1.4
325.1
2.6
78.8
1.7
137.1
3.9

2005
27,676.2
5.5
28,709.6
3.4
10,772.2
4.5
964.0
2.0
13.9
394.7
2.1
62.6
1.6
23.1
1.8
37.6
1.4
332.1
2.2
79.9
1.3
141.4
3.1

2006
29,203.1
5.5
29,719.5
3.5
11,275.8
4.7
982.6
1.9
13.2
402.5
2.0
63.5
1.3
23.4
1.4
38.2
1.4
339.0
2.1
81.2
1.6
145.5
2.9

96-01
6.6

4.6

2.4

3.5

7.3

4.8

6.0

3.1

2.6

2.8

-3.4
4.1

0.2
2.5

-1.7
3.3

3.1

1.9

2.5

6.1

1.3

3.7

1.6

2.4

2.0

4.3

2.7

3.5

3.0

2.3

2.7

5.8

3.4

4.6

01-06 96-06
5.8
7.1

4.8

3.1

3.9

7.6

5.6

6.6

3.4

2.6

3.0

-6.5
4.4

-1.4
2.6

-4.0
3.5

3.1

1.5

2.3

6.0

0.7

3.3

1.8

2.1

1.9

4.7

2.9

3.8

3.6

2.5

3.1

5.6

3.3

4.4

01-06 96-06
5.8
6.2

3.8

3.7

3.7

6.3

4.8

5.5

2.7

2.1

2.4

1.1
3.1

-2.8
2.3

-0.9
2.7

3.1

1.9

2.5

2.5

1.5

2.0

4.0

2.2

3.1

3.2

2.4

2.8

1.9

2.0

1.9

5.1

3.4

4.3

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Eller College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

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CENSUS 2000 QUICK FACTS
Arizona
113,635
45.2

USA
3,537,441
79.6

Population
5,130,632
Population, percent change, 1990 to 2000
40.0%
Persons under 5 years old, percent
7.5%
Persons under 18 years old, percent
26.6%
Persons 65 years old and over, percent
13.0%
White persons, percent, (a)
75.5%
Black or African American persons, percent, (a)
3.1%
American Indian and Alaska Native persons, percent, (a)
5.0%
Asian persons, percent, (a)
1.8%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, percent, (a)
0.1%
Persons reporting some other race, percent, (a)
11.6%
Persons reporting two or more races, percent
2.9%
Female population, percent
50.1%
Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, percent (b)
25.3%
White persons, not of Hispanic/Latino origin, percent
63.8%

281,421,906
13.1%
6.8%
25.7%
12.4%
75.1%
12.3%
0.9%
3.6%
0.1%
5.5%
2.4%
50.9%
12.5%
69.1%

Housing units
Homeownership rate
Households
Persons per household
Households with persons under 18 years, percent

115,904,641
66.2%
105,480,101
2.59
36.0%

Land area, 2000 (square miles)
Persons per square mile, 2000

2,189,189
68.0%
1,901,327
2.64
35.4%

(a) Includes persons reporting only one race.
(b) Hispanics may be of any race, so also are included in applicable race categories.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Web site: www.census.gov

COMING IN 2002:
A NEW EDITION OF THE ARIZONA STATISTICAL ABSTRACT.
The Economic and Business Research Program is currently updating the Arizona
Statistical Abstract. The new edition will include data from the Census 2000, and
the 1992 and 1997 Economic Censuses. Look for information in the next issue
of Arizona’s Economy about how to reserve your copy.

PA GE S IX

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

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A R I Z O N A

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining (Mohave County only)
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
2001

APR
2001

MAY
2001

JUN
2001

JUL
2001

60,850
51,675
9,175
15.1

65,375
50,350
15,025
23.0

71,325
50,675
20,650
29.0

70,175
50,300
19,875
28.3

69,425
48,975
20,450
29.5

-2.6
10.9
-24.6
-22.6

2.0
6.3
-8.7
-9.6

43,450
2,700
2,200
1,675
12,825
1,425
10,400
12,225

41,350
2,700
2,200
1,550
11,200
1,375
10,125
12,200

40,450
2,700
2,175
1,500
10,700
1,325
9,950
12,100

39,400
2,800
2,200
1,525
10,425
1,325
9,825
11,300

38,000
2,850
2,200
1,500
10,150
1,275
9,750
10,275

1.9
1.8
1.1
3.4
1.5
2.0
4.6
-0.2

4.7
1.7
0.9
3.0
2.1
6.4
6.5
7.4

110,412
86,370
11,312
12,730
8,807
11,813

89,957
67,728
10,210
12,019
7,596
20,445

87,417
66,108
9,351
11,958
7,046
12,782

79,042
59,682
9,114
10,246
6,265
16,518

...
...
...
...
...
...

-1.6
-5.4
9.3
15.4
-1.5
-2.6

3.8
3.4
5.4
5.2
-8.7
4.9

28,606
9,187
18,528
891

7,542
6,757
0
785

29,559
7,124
16,127
6,308

14,211
10,539
1,492
2,180

25,175
10,182
13,329
1,664

21.2
18.8
79.3
-65.2

-1.5
-5.6
8.2
-7.2

105
105

69
69

76
76

104
104

95
95

25.0
25.0

-13.9
-5.8

73,525
70,050
3,475
4.7

73,750
70,600
3,150
4.3

74,525
71,400
3,125
4.2

75,750
72,400
3,350
4.4

75,975
72,750
3,225
4.2

7.4
7.9
-3.7
-10.4

5.4
5.6
0.3
-4.9

49,050
100
4,275
3,725
2,425
14,100
1,425
12,900
10,100

48,975
100
4,300
3,700
2,450
14,100
1,400
12,900
10,025

48,825
100
4,125
3,675
2,475
13,875
1,400
13,100
10,075

47,850
100
4,000
3,600
2,475
13,875
1,375
12,925
9,500

46,775
100
3,800
3,600
2,475
13,750
1,400
12,350
9,300

0.5
0
0.0
-0.7
6.5
-2.5
-5.1
0.6
5.1

6.3
-4.0
13.0
1.3
7.2
3.7
-3.1
9.2
7.4

110,815
85,008
8,226
17,581
12,162
23,080

124,997
88,268
17,388
19,341
12,223
27,933

124,857
90,911
13,669
20,277
11,947
29,311

124,249
92,311
13,429
18,509
11,317
27,724

...
...
...
...
...
...

11.0
10.9
2.8
17.8
0.5
-30.2

5.8
5.9
1.6
9.2
-4.3
5.6

27,992
21,376
5,517
1,099

24,755
20,533
887
3,335

33,122
18,304
4,130
10,688

25,813
18,524
4,459
2,830

22,071
18,103
755
3,213

-7.7
-2.7
160.3
-36.0

-9.0
1.4
-36.0
-10.5

213
211

209
199

183
181

188
184

180
174

6.5
6.7

1.2
1.2

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PAGE SEVEN

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A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
2001

APR
2001

MAY
2001

JUN
2001

JUL
2001

40,375
38,450
1,925
4.8

39,725
37,900
1,825
4.6

40,900
39,175
1,725
4.2

40,800
39,025
1,775
4.4

40,850
39,225
1,625
4.0

2.6
3.2
-9.7
-12.0

2.4
2.8
-6.4
-8.5

32,400
1,875
1,000
1,325
7,650
750
8,100
11,700

32,400
1,900
1,000
1,300
7,600
750
8,125
11,725

32,475
1,925
950
1,300
7,575
750
8,175
11,800

31,825
1,875
950
1,300
7,575
750
8,150
11,225

31,600
1,925
900
1,325
7,600
775
8,225
10,850

-1.8
-1.3
-12.2
1.9
0.0
3.3
-3.2
-1.8

2.5
-3.3
-2.2
3.8
2.0
4.6
-0.0
5.9

63,367
50,300
6,594
6,473
4,478
12,355

64,070
50,046
8,831
5,193
3,282
12,662

63,319
49,386
7,621
6,312
3,719
11,260

62,379
48,772
7,061
6,546
4,003
11,457

...
...
...
...
...
...

4.3
3.3
4.6
12.1
-4.3
-17.9

6.3
10.1
3.5
-13.7
-26.1
-16.5

9,675
4,823
4,460
392

10,183
5,364
970
3,849

8,403
6,059
2,195
149

10,332
7,703
218
2,411

9,352
3,676
175
5,501

-15.4
16.6
26.8
-29.2

-48.7
-11.4
-77.4
-52.1

54
54

60
60

59
59

84
84

38
38

0.0
0.0

-9.2
3.0

13,450
12,450
1,000
7.4

13,250
12,350
900
6.8

13,425
12,475
950
7.1

13,700
12,200
1,500
10.9

13,875
12,000
1,875
13.5

3.4
10.9
-27.9
-30.2

3.1
6.6
-16.1
-17.7

13,200
400
1,075
1,400
4,350
225
1,975
3,775

12,975
400
1,025
1,375
4,175
225
1,950
3,825

12,900
400
1,025
1,350
4,125
225
1,950
3,825

12,375
400
1,025
1,325
4,050
225
1,900
3,450

11,975
400
1,025
1,225
3,875
200
1,850
3,400

4.6
0.0
5.1
11.4
-3.7
-11.1
4.2
15.3

5.8
4.9
8.1
9.8
-5.8
-2.7
8.6
19.6

30,605
23,617
3,283
3,705
2,563
4,397

31,264
23,382
3,314
4,568
2,887
3,645

28,609
22,146
2,883
3,580
2,110
4,349

27,257
21,362
2,618
3,277
2,004
4,607

...
...
...
...
...
...

16.1
14.8
9.5
32.3
12.9
-6.4

13.7
13.0
8.5
24.2
6.9
-15.1

4,082
3,102
293
687

4,852
4,261
591
0

2,554
2,505
49
0

7,212
3,432
495
3,285

2,885
2,586
0
299

-34.7
-33.9
-100.0
...

2.3
-3.2
-30.8
97.4

33
26

35
35

26
21

27
27

22
22

-29.0
-29.0

1.5
-5.8

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE EIGHT

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

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A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining (Greenlee County only)
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
2001

APR
2001

MAY
2001

JUN
2001

JUL
2001

17,275
16,150
1,125
6.5

17,325
16,275
1,050
6.1

17,500
16,600
900
5.1

17,600
16,600
1,000
5.7

17,600
16,675
925
5.3

2.9
3.4
-5.1
-7.8

-0.7
-0.3
-7.2
-6.3

14,100
675
1,050
1,100
450
3,225
275
2,525
4,800

14,175
675
1,000
1,100
450
3,250
275
2,600
4,825

14,350
675
1,050
1,100
450
3,300
275
2,600
4,900

14,100
650
1,075
1,125
450
3,300
275
2,650
4,575

13,975
675
1,025
1,100
450
3,350
275
2,675
4,425

-0.7
-3.6
-4.7
2.3
-14.3
0.8
0.0
1.9
-1.1

-0.5
-2.4
7.1
2.9
-7.8
-2.1
7.1
-0.9
-0.8

25,946
18,750
3,785
3,411
2,360
6,301

26,503
18,976
3,652
3,875
2,449
6,792

30,735
21,659
4,396
4,680
2,758
7,548

29,372
21,297
4,710
3,365
2,058
9,123

...
...
...
...
...
...

3.1
5.0
8.1
-12.8
-25.6
50.3

3.1
3.5
2.4
1.3
-13.5
27.7

5,441
3,866
1,359
216

13,983
2,861
8,583
2,539

7,383
3,354
0
4,029

5,304
4,910
0
394

5,295
2,576
1,563
1,156

-30.3
-33.5
...
-69.0

-4.6
-26.5
104.4
3.9

27
27

21
21

24
24

33
33

19
19

-32.1
-32.1

-29.0
-26.8

14,900
13,775
1,125
7.6

15,025
13,800
1,225
8.2

14,975
13,900
1,075
7.2

15,075
13,875
1,200
8.0

14,775
13,725
1,050
7.1

6.1
5.6
13.5
7.0

0.5
1.2
-8.9
-9.3

11,325
2,375
850
275
200
2,300
175
1,750
3,400

11,200
2,350
700
275
200
2,325
175
1,800
3,375

11,125
2,325
700
275
200
2,350
175
1,825
3,275

10,900
2,375
725
300
200
2,325
175
1,750
3,050

10,650
2,375
675
275
200
2,300
175
1,675
2,975

-2.7
-3.1
-32.5
-8.3
-11.1
-1.1
0.0
0.0
6.3

-0.2
-5.1
16.5
3.0
-14.2
2.7
2.4
-2.4
-0.3

19,243
16,045
1,454
1,744
1,206
3,267

20,795
17,017
1,788
1,990
1,257
3,877

21,188
17,575
1,616
1,997
1,177
2,614

18,838
15,828
1,735
1,275
780
4,302

...
...
...
...
...
...

-7.1
-5.6
-5.0
-24.2
-35.3
7.5

2.5
4.0
-4.9
-3.4
-16.2
-13.7

815
815
0
0

662
662
0
4,029

590
590
0
0

4,018
526
3,492
0

1,913
513
1,400
1,137

-29.9
-29.7
-30.0
-57.6

3.9
-8.5
23.3
148.8

7
7

6
6

7
7

5
5

6
6

-14.3
-14.3

-38.0
2.3

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PAGE NINE

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Page 10

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

APACHE-NAVAJO REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
2001

APR
2001

MAY
2001

JUN
2001

JUL
2001

50,850
44,900
5,950
11.7

50,475
45,250
5,225
10.4

50,775
46,025
4,750
9.4

52,750
45,725
7,025
13.3

53,575
46,850
6,725
12.6

3.0
5.9
-13.2
-15.8

-1.1
-0.4
-6.5
-5.5

46,025
825
2,050
1,125
2,525
8,075
1,350
7,475
22,600

46,250
850
2,025
1,150
2,500
8,175
1,350
7,750
22,450

46,625
875
2,125
1,150
2,550
8,250
1,375
7,850
22,450

45,475
900
2,175
1,175
2,550
8,325
1,325
7,650
21,375

46,050
925
2,400
1,150
2,575
8,450
1,350
7,525
21,675

1.8
0.0
9.1
-4.2
2.0
-0.6
-1.8
-4.4
5.0

-0.8
-1.4
5.2
-2.6
0.7
5.1
0.6
-3.0
-2.8

59,483
43,292
5,139
11,052
7,646
11,078

66,974
49,962
5,638
11,374
7,188
12,617

71,301
55,692
6,440
9,169
5,403
14,121

79,436
60,102
7,115
12,219
7,471
19,588

...
...
...
...
...
...

-15.3
-20.3
3.4
6.8
-8.8
24.3

-8.8
-12.0
4.2
2.7
-11.2
19.8

10,776
6,071
2,492
2,213

16,175
11,230
3,500
1,445

35,755
11,621
13,684
10,450

36,951
13,681
4,024
19,246

19,789
9,680
769
9,340

3.1
-15.4
...
20.5

-20.4
10.8
-47.1
-22.7

50
50

86
86

120
83

113
113

63
63

-21.3
-21.3

10.8
12.0

132,600
127,025
5,575
4.2

134,450
129,550
4,900
3.6

134,475
129,925
4,550
3.4

137,625
131,825
5,800
4.2

137,950
132,625
5,325
3.9

4.2
5.2
-16.8
-20.1

4.1
4.6
-6.7
-10.3

110,450
1,225
8,450
5,825
2,825
26,575
3,050
31,850
30,650

111,275
1,225
8,625
5,925
2,850
26,675
3,100
32,025
30,850

111,875
1,225
8,775
5,850
2,975
27,250
3,125
33,000
29,675

112,025
1,200
8,750
5,925
3,025
27,325
3,175
33,400
29,225

110,975
1,200
8,700
5,850
3,075
27,575
3,125
33,675
27,775

1.2
2.1
2.4
-3.3
1.7
1.4
2.5
3.1
-0.9

4.4
10.9
12.4
-0.6
1.5
2.3
4.7
7.5
1.9

195,540
141,352
30,683
23,505
16,261
47,117

225,288
157,487
40,649
27,152
17,160
53,660

231,428
161,103
39,822
30,503
17,972
63,034

241,345
171,142
42,336
27,867
17,039
57,737

...
...
...
...
...
...

3.8
4.0
1.0
6.9
-8.8
3.0

3.5
3.0
-2.8
17.5
1.3
2.0

53,648
34,308
1,543
17,797

77,054
35,416
13,735
27,903

72,103
41,975
9,342
20,786

61,471
31,706
12,382
17,383

60,269
38,637
12,676
8,956

28.1
13.6
77.6
52.7

-11.3
-3.2
-9.5
-31.2

271
238

261
253

297
278

234
228

280
264

22.3
21.1

-7.2
2.1

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TEN

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

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A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

MAR
2001

APR
2001

MAY
2001

JUN
2001

JUL
2001

1,615.2
1,564.3
50.9
3.4

1,619.8
1,569.3
50.5
3.5

1,625.9
1,572.2
53.7
3.5

1,634.1
1,573.1
61.0
3.6

1,629.8
1,572.4
57.4
3.3

4.5
3.8
28.7
22.2

3.0
2.9
6.4
4.4

1,610.5
2.5
122.1
164.8
128.3
36.5
85.1
378.2
92.4
285.8
122.4
528.0
207.4

1,611.4
2.5
122.8
163.9
127.6
36.3
85.0
379.5
92.2
287.3
122.7
527.5
207.5

1,605.5
2.5
123.0
163.2
126.9
36.3
85.1
379.5
92.2
287.3
123.5
522.0
206.7

1,579.2
2.6
124.4
162.3
126.1
36.2
85.1
378.5
92.1
286.4
123.6
517.3
185.4

1,559.8
2.5
123.8
161.7
125.5
36.2
85.4
374.3
91.5
282.8
123.8
508.1
180.2

0.1
-3.8
2.5
-2.9
-2.9
-3.2
1.4
1.6
1.2
1.8
2.1
-2.4
3.4

2.7
-1.6
4.8
0.4
1.3
-2.5
2.8
2.3
1.9
2.4
2.5
3.0
3.3

3,393,021
2,404,037
400,700
411,879
176,405
697,451

3,306,551
2,295,359
408,079
410,937
192,176
685,991

3,306,166
2,317,346
399,005
381,898
207,917
738,202

3,224,851
2,298,696
389,114
356,373
180,668
787,765

...
...
...
...
...
...

1.5
0.0
6.0
2.0
10.8
2.8

5.8
4.7
5.9
5.9
19.5
3.2

826,924
502,688
302,157
22,079

785,720
600,795
162,624
22,301

783,659
521,969
196,307
65,383

929,119
481,443
216,030
231,646

773,810
384,494
314,545
74,771

-2.0
-12.0
29.8
-32.0

-4.9
-4.6
-3.3
-11.3

4,160
3,205
82
873

3,834
3,039
45
750

3,914
3,451
57
406

4,061
3,170
90
801

...
...
...
...

10.4
5.9
-3.2
35.8

-4.4
-5.2
18.0
-3.0

1,116,005
6,377
175,005

904,207
5,252
172,164

1,143,189
6,617
172,765

1,151,374
6,384
180,353

980,131
5,592
175,274

12.5
9.7
2.5

13.9
8.9
4.7

3,530,922
56,822

3,187,547
48,106

3,157,910
48,615

3,180,226
47,013

...
...

2.5
-9.8

4.4
3.6

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

II
2000

III
2000

IV
2000

I
2001

II
2001

3,249.8
7.9
13.8
5.9
16.8

3,274.1
8.0
13.9
5.9
16.3

3,298.8
8.0
14.0
6.0
16.6

3,322.8
8.3
14.3
6.0
15.7

3,346.3
8.3
14.4
6.1
15.3

3.0
5.2
4.3
3.2
-9.2

3.1
6.1
4.4
2.2
-10.6

90,812
68,525
4,309
-100
16,840
9,856
27,944

92,273
69,835
4,394
-100
16,838
10,094
28,183

93,570
71,045
4,475
-99
16,753
10,347
28,365

95,184
72,456
4,565
-99
16,855
10,536
28,646

96,404
73,615
4,644
-98
16,718
10,813
28,809

6.2
7.4
7.8
2.4
-0.7
9.7
3.1

7.7
8.7
8.6
2.1
3.1
8.9
4.5

PAGE ELEVEN

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A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

JUL
2001

MAR
2001

APR
2001

MAY
2001

JUN
2001

395.6
383.7
11.9
3.3

396.9
385.3
11.6
3.4

398.3
387.1
11.2
3.1

397.7
385.1
12.6
3.1

393.2
381.2
12.0
2.8

3.4
3.3
7.1
3.7

1.4
1.8
-8.8
-9.4

356.6
1.9
21.4
33.2
28.3
4.9
12.0
73.7
10.8
62.9
13.7
120.9
79.8

357.2
1.8
21.5
33.4
28.4
5.0
12.0
74.0
10.7
63.3
14.0
120.8
79.7

357.2
1.8
21.5
33.6
28.6
5.0
12.0
74.1
10.8
63.3
14.1
120.7
79.4

349.2
1.8
21.6
33.7
28.8
4.9
12.0
73.1
10.9
62.2
14.1
120.5
72.4

341.7
1.8
21.6
34.0
29.1
4.9
12.0
72.0
10.8
61.2
14.1
118.8
67.4

-0.2
-5.3
-1.8
2.1
3.9
-7.5
-0.8
1.8
-1.8
2.5
2.9
-0.1
-3.3

1.7
0.0
-1.3
3.2
5.2
-6.8
0.3
1.5
-0.2
1.8
-1.7
2.4
1.7

756,398
515,850
96,172
93,722
50,654
123,466

750,974
511,439
97,943
89,142
52,450
140,545

737,787
500,090
95,765
86,285
55,647
138,365

681,228
462,961
93,391
80,148
44,728
136,508

...
...
...
...
...
...

-1.3
-3.0
2.5
2.5
1.9
4.1

5.7
5.2
4.9
4.9
14.2
3.7

124,297
101,027
15,417
7,853

132,742
95,984
31,873
4,885

118,143
87,848
15,867
14,428

135,007
83,952
43,139
7,916

118,074
86,739
16,302
15,033

-18.0
2.0
-59.4
-19.6

-18.7
-7.5
-34.5
-38.6

642
607
36

952
567
385

655
576
78

566
540
26

...
...
...

-19.4
-17.2
-47.8

-12.4
-3.7
-45.9

164,662
1,069
154,034

171,878
1,048
164,005

202,407
1,225
165,230

190,666
1,175
162,269

199,530
1,192
167,391

35.0
27.1
6.2

8.4
2.8
5.5

364,184
26,370

343,350
22,000

329,717
23,110

308,846
21,876

322,075
21,581

17.6
3.9

7.3
-0.1

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

II
2001

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

II
2000

III
2000

IV
2000

I
2001

863.5
1.2
3.0
1.8
3.9

868.5
1.2
3.1
1.8
3.8

873.7
1.2
3.1
1.8
4.0

878.8
1.2
3.1
1.9
3.8

883.7
1.2
3.1
1.9
3.7

2.3
-0.1
1.4
2.4
-3.3

2.4
2.2
2.7
3.1
-1.8

20,580
13,099
783
140
5,008
3,116
23,835

20,901
13,318
796
143
5,052
3,184
24,064

21,207
13,529
809
147
5,082
3,257
24,272

21,515
13,733
822
149
5,146
3,308
24,482

21,827
13,952
836
153
5,166
3,390
24,698

6.1
6.5
6.8
9.4
3.2
8.8
3.6

6.8
7.2
7.4
4.2
5.1
8.0
4.3

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table
PAGE TWELVE

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

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Page 13

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Transportation
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
Schools
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s)
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
2001

APR
2001

MAY
2001

JUN
2001

JUL
2001

2,414.6
2,322.5
92.1
4.4

2,426.1
2,330.7
95.4
4.3

2,442.1
2,339.5
102.6
4.2

2,455.3
2,340.1
115.2
4.3

2,447.1
2,336.4
110.7
3.9

4.1
4.1
3.7
0.0

2.7
2.8
-1.3
-3.8

2,290.7
9.6
165.3
214.7
167.8
46.9
109.8
72.6
532.6
114.5
418.1
145.0
728.7
385.0
46.6
338.4
187.1
40.2

2,292.2
9.6
166.0
214.2
167.4
46.8
109.7
72.7
533.1
113.1
420.0
145.6
728.7
385.3
46.6
338.7
187.3
39.6

2,286.5
9.5
166.3
213.7
167.0
46.7
109.9
72.9
533.3
112.9
420.4
146.6
724.2
383.0
47.0
336.0
183.4
39.8

2,248.2
9.6
168.1
212.9
166.2
46.7
110.0
73.2
531.5
112.7
418.8
146.7
719.0
350.4
47.1
303.3
146.8
40.0

2,217.2
9.5
167.1
212.2
165.8
46.4
110.3
73.1
526.0
112.0
414.0
146.9
707.7
337.5
47.2
290.3
132.4
39.8

0.2
-4.0
1.5
-2.1
-1.7
-3.5
1.3
3.1
1.6
0.8
1.9
2.2
-1.6
1.9
-4.1
2.9
2.2
-1.7

2.6
-1.7
4.5
1.0
2.0
-2.5
2.6
3.8
2.3
1.8
2.4
2.1
3.1
2.5
-4.0
3.5
3.7
-0.5

16.05
12.86
20.52
11.36
14.54

16.02
12.93
21.17
11.34
14.53

15.55
13.04
20.84
11.38
14.09

15.24
13.07
21.05
11.50
14.35

15.46
13.18
20.66
11.68
14.29

0.6
3.0
6.5
1.0
0.6

7.2
0.6
11.4
-1.8
4.9

4,886,756
3,384,621
618,797
576,077
307,261
212,564
414,649
239,361
86,037
317,432
940,325
28,309
234,806

4,831,543
3,279,664
630,193
591,549
330,138
208,644
374,717
245,117
72,366
342,627
968,167
16,528
180,675

4,824,218
3,302,016
616,180
553,981
352,041
207,424
465,696
221,998
65,733
308,412
1,021,586
28,129
149,973

4,686,398
3,252,153
600,905
524,639
308,701
188,750
561,780
234,394
60,342
333,800
1,075,329
24,516
133,377

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

1.2
-0.4
5.2
2.2
9.1
-6.9
3.7
0.8
-9.4
3.9
1.9
-32.8
4.2

5.8
4.5
7.6
6.6
15.5
0.1
9.0
15.3
0.2
6.5
3.3
-40.3
2.5

1,092,256
687,263
351,766
53,227

1,077,697
783,863
222,763
71,071

1,091,271
701,349
257,701
132,221

1,229,438
656,416
285,731
287,291

1,039,770
557,186
361,514
121,070

-3.1
-8.1
20.5
-27.2

-7.9
-4.8
-10.1
-17.1

5,427
4,393
156
878

5,284
4,165
68
1,051

5,200
4,656
121
423

5,292
4,291
107
894

...
...
...
...

5.1
0.3
-18.3
43.0

-5.3
-4.5
6.9
-9.9

2,497
2,085
21
391

2,296
1,896
27
373

2,228
1,790
20
418

2,071
1,665
25
381

2,000
1,599
30
371

27.3
28.7
57.9
20.5

9.1
9.9
-8.1
7.2

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
AR IZON A ’S ECON O MY

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A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income
Proprietor's Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

I N D I C A T O R S

II
2000

III
2000

IV
2000

I
2001

II
2001

5,131.9
11.2
21.1
9.9
25.1

5,167.9
11.0
21.3
10.3
24.8

5,203.9
11.5
21.5
10.0
24.6

5,240.1
11.2
21.3
10.1
25.2

5,276.4
11.2
21.4
10.3
25.0

2.8
0.1
1.7
3.5
-0.4

2.8
4.3
3.7
3.0
-2.4

129,377
92,140
5,659
422
25,396
17,078

132,187
94,409
5,777
441
25,825
17,289

134,087
96,017
5,860
457
26,144
17,328

136,804
98,108
6,037
476
26,352
17,906

138,355
99,695
6,120
482
26,006
18,292

6.9
8.2
8.1
14.3
2.4
7.1

7.3
8.1
7.7
11.5
4.6
6.9

75,022
7,559
9,871
459
9,412
25,211
32,975

76,457
7,643
10,052
560
9,492
25,579
33,266

77,835
7,786
9,860
340
9,521
25,767
33,761

79,042
7,884
9,993
363
9,630
26,107
34,113

...
...
...
...
...
26,221
...

5.2
4.2
4.8
-7.4
5.3
4.0
2.2

8.1
5.3
7.3
-3.5
7.9
4.3
4.5

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA
MAR
2001
Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS
U.S. Citizens
Aliens

APR
2001

MAY
2001

JUN
2001

JUL
2001

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

1,370,323
154,538
445,476
770,309
493,899
76,298
366,348
51,253

1,827,569
212,686
516,681
1,098,202
358,596
60,093
245,250
53,253

1,948,341
165,060
641,296
1,141,985
211,735
31,985
126,307
53,443

2,280,289
160,531
727,295
1,392,463
167,968
26,306
97,589
44,073

2,454,313
165,229
833,480
1,455,604
178,014
30,206
97,170
50,638

-2.2
-10.0
-1.9
-1.4
4.3
7.7
2.2
6.5

-5.5
-3.5
-3.2
-6.8
1.5
0.7
3.3
-5.3

755,448
2,209,472

700,961
2,018,180

673,108
1,888,929

660,078
1,863,100

640,828
1,756,335

-17.7
-12.3

-4.1
2.4

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA

Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

MAR
2001

APR
2001

MAY
2001

JUN
2001

176.2
172.6

176.9
173.5

177.7
174.4

178.0
174.6

JUL
2001
177.5
173.8

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
2.7
2.6

3.3
3.3

Sources and abbreviations:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department
of Commerce
PA GE F OU R TEE N

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department
of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems
Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission)
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior
PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport

SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service,
U.S. Department of Justice
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department
of the Treasury

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

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A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA

Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1992=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

II
2001

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

II
2000

III
2000

IV
2000

I
2001

174.3
171.7
168.5

176.6
173.1
169.7

177.1
174.0
170.7

180.1
175.7
172.2

182.0
177.5
174.2

4.4
3.4
3.4

4.0
3.4
3.4

106.8
107.1

107.2
107.6

107.8
108.1

108.6
109.0

109.3
109.5

2.3
2.2

2.3
2.3

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

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