J U L Y

2 0 0 1

ARIZONA’S
ECONOMY
IS STRONGER
THAN IT LOOKS
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
May 25, 2001

M

ajor changes to recent historical
data have been released since
our last quarterly update.
These include annual rebenchmarking
of employment, revisions to personal
income for Arizona as well as metro
areas, and results from the 2000 Census.
Results are mixed–population is significantly higher than expected (although
not in all portions of the state) and
personal income is stronger, but employment is weaker. Unfortunately, interpretation of current conditions using the
revised data is clouded by special events
that make the economy look weaker than
it really is. In spite of all the revisions,
our forecast remains little changed from
last quarter. We still expect below average
growth–but no recession–for the foreseeable future, as the “bubble” economy of
a year ago deflates and things get back
to “normal.”

S U M M E R

I S S U E

Blue Chip panelists
EXHIBIT 1
who expected a gain
Bonuses Boost Personal Income
of only 7.0% as late
Personal Income Growth, AZ (old and new estimates compared)
as December of last
year. Eller College
forecasts called for
a gain of 8.1%, the
highest among the
panel. The new 2000
estimates are roughly
$1 billion higher than
originally reported.
Bonuses and stock
options have become
a popular way to compensate employees
and now comprise
a significant portion
of compensation.
These sources also
account for sizable
variation in personal
income growth over the past several years
by more than 11% above year earlier levels.
(Exhibit 1).
Euphoria best describes the climate as the
Typically, bonuses and stock options boost
NASDAQ soared to phenomenal heights,
income during the first quarter of the calendar
and as an unprecedented sense of urgency
year. The world financial crisis during late
propelled the economy upward like a rocket.
1998, however, preempted these payments
Huge bonus and stock option income accrued
in early 1999 as the stock market fell and
to high tech workers, primarily in the services
confidence waned. As a result, personal
sector, where many high tech “New Economy”
income in Arizona barely managed a six
companies are categorized.
percent increase in 1999’s first quarter.
These events first depressed and then
Then, during the height of the “high tech
boosted incomes over the past two years.
bubble” in the first quarter of 2000, bonuses
Now, the cycle is repeating itself. As 2000
and stock options boosted personal income
progressed, the bubble deflated, the stock

PERSONAL INCOME
REVISED HIGHER
In late April, the Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA) released comprehensive
revisions to its personal income estimates.
The new numbers show that Arizona personal
income grew by a very strong 9.1% during
2000. This was a surprise to many Arizona
EL LE R CO LL E GE O F BU S IN E SS A ND PU B LI C A D M IN I ST RA TI ON

I N S I D E

BEST PLACES FOR
A BUSINESS CAREER .............5
FORECAST TABLES ................6
ECONOMIC INDICATORS ........7

EXHIBIT 2
Census Finds Tremendous Growth

and western portions of the state. Metro Phoenix,
Prescott and cities along the Colorado River saw
the biggest increases.

Population
2000

1990

Absolute
Change

5,130,632

3,665,339

1,465,293

40.0%

Apache County

69,423

61,591

7,832

12.7%

Cochise County

117,755

97,624

20,131

20.6%

Coconino County

Area
Arizona

Percent
Change

116,320

96,591

19,729

20.4%

Gila County

51,335

40,216

11,119

27.6%

Graham County

33,489

26,554

6,935

26.1%

8,547

8,008

539

6.7%

Greenlee County
La Paz County

•Phoenix is the largest city with over 1.3 million,
followed by Tucson (486,000) and Mesa (396,000).
•Pima County (Metro Tucson) came up 20,000-plus
persons short of local estimates, leading to speculation of a significant under-count in western portions
and on reservations. The Census found 843,700
persons.
•The numbers of residents who consider themselves
Hispanic or Latino increased by 600,000 statewide,
an 88.2% increase.
•Hispanic/Latinos account for 25% of statewide
population, but comprise a majority in Yuma (50%)
and Santa Cruz (81%) counties.

19,715

13,844

5,871

42.4%

3,072,149

2,122,101

950,048

44.8%

Mohave County

155,032

93,497

61,535

65.8%

Navajo County

97,470

77,674

19,796

25.5%

Pima County

843,746

666,957

176,789

26.5%

Pinal County

179,727

116,397

63,330

54.4%

REVISED JOB NUMBERS

38,381

29,676

8,705

29.3%

167,517

107,714

59,803

55.5%

In March, the Arizona Department of
Economic Security (DES) released its annual
“rebenchmarked” estimates for the prior two
years. The biggest surprise was lower growth
rates for 2000 nonag employment. Originally,
job growth was pegged at 4.4% year-on-year.
The revised numbers show 3.9%, or 1/2percent slower. Instead of creating 95,500
new jobs in 2000 as originally reported, the
new number shows 85,000. This represents
the first downward revision since 1997, and
only the sixth time in the past eighteen years
that total job counts have been lowered during
the first revision. The 2000 estimates will be
revised once again next March. (In two of
the prior five episodes, the second-revision
boosted job counts so as to entirely reverse
the first-year reduction.)
Among the industries growing more slowly
are trade (now 3.1% vs 3.5% originally
reported), FIRE (2.9% vs. 4.7%), and TCPU
(4.3% vs. 5.2%). By contrast, construction
employment was revised significantly higher
in mid-2000, and is currently the fastestgrowing sector, registering first quarter gains
of more than six percent.
Some of 2000’s growth was pushed back
into the prior year. In 1999, 88,400 jobs were
created, rather than the 85,500 contained
in original estimates. Job growth was 4.3%
rather than 4.1% (Exhibit 3).
Estimates for Phoenix reflect statewide
revisions, of course (Phoenix-Mesa accounts
for 70% of Arizona’s jobs), but metro Tucson

Mari copa Count y

Santa Cruz County
Yavapai County
Yuma County

160,026

106,895

53,131

49.7%

3,251,876

2,238,498

1,013,378

45.3%

Tucson, AZ (MSA)

843,746

666,957

176,789

26.5%

Y uma, AZ ( MSA)

160,026

106,895

53,131

49.7%

Phoenix-Mesa, AZ (MSA)

market fell and confidence swooned, again
eliminating bonuses and stock options from
incomes in early 2001. When BEA releases
estimates of first quarter personal income on
July 24, the numbers will likely show a low
single-digit increase. Just like in 1999, the
economy will look weaker than it really is.
We are forecasting a gain of 6.3% for all of
2001, compared to 6.8% in 1999 and last
year’s 9.1% explosion.

CENSUS FINDS MORE
ARIZONA RESIDENTS
In late March, the U.S. Bureau of the Census
released April 1, 2000 population counts for
Arizona by age, race and ethnicity, down to
the block level. Although growth is nothing
new for Arizona, the magnitude of the numbers exceeded most analysts’ expectations.
The Census Bureau’s own estimates were
some 250,000 shy, while estimates prepared
by the state were much closer, but still 80,000
short. That is a large variance, given that it
had only been five years since the mid-decade
special census.
PAGE TWO

During the decade of the 1990s, Arizona’s
population gained 1.465 million people,
growing to 5.13 million, an increase of 40%
(Exhibit 2). Only Nevada grew faster–
Arizona once again was the second-fastest
growing state. During the twentieth century,
Arizona ranked number two in population
growth and was among the top five states in
every decade but two: the aughts (1900-10)
and the thirties, where it ranked as seventh
in both decades.
Arizona is now the 20th largest state in the
nation, ranking just behind Maryland and
Wisconsin. The added population gives
Arizona two additional seats in the U.S. House
of Representatives, boosting the number from
six to eight.
Among the highlights:
•Over one million, or 70%, of Arizona’s population
growth came from migration.
•Sixty-five percent of Arizona’s new residents settled
in Maricopa County (which along with Pinal County
comprises the Phoenix-Mesa metro area).
•Maricopa County has over three million residents
and Phoenix-Mesa exceeds 3-1/4 million.
•The fastest growing counties are found in central

•Although Arizona’s population is three-fourths white,
other races grew more quickly. White population
grew by 30.7%, Black or African American by 43.7%,
American Indian by 25.7% and “other” races by
79.3%.

AR I ZO NA ’S EC ONO M Y

EXHIBIT 3
Jobs Still Growing, But Much Slower

EXHIBIT 4
Is Residential Construction Headed for a Fall?

Nonag Job Growth, AZ (preliminary and revised estimates)

Building Permits and Number of New Jobs, AZ

numbers were revised significantly lower.
Original estimates showed Tucson to be the
fastest-growing metro area in the nation for
most of the year 2000. The original 5.6%
annual growth (18,600 new jobs) was revised
to show growth of 4.1% (13,700). More
importantly, year-over-year growth for the
first quarter shows job growth in Tucson of
only 1.3%.
The “balance of state” estimates now show
job growth of 4.6% during 2000–stronger
than in either metro area. In the first quarter,
construction jobs were up 13.1%, manufacturing up 5.4%, and services up 4.8%.
Recent estimates now show a rapid
deceleration of job growth during the first
quarter. In March the number of jobs stood
only 2.3% higher than one year earlier. This
reflects, in part, the slowing of the economy
and growing numbers of announced job cutbacks. However, the extent of the slowdown
is exaggerated because of Census field staff
who were present one year ago but not today.
The Census Bureau employed as many as
10,000 workers in Arizona temporarily
during the March - July 2000 time period.
That’s why the number of federal government
employees was 6.6% lower in March compared to one year earlier, and why we can
expect that category to show big declines
until August.
Removing the Census workers from last year
gives job growth of 2.5%, rather than 2.3%.
That is still well below “normal.” Mining and
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

nondurable manufacturing join the federal
government in negative territory when compared to a year ago. Retail trade, FIRE and
services have all slowed significantly in the
past few months. Within services, hotels and
business services (which includes temporary
and contract employment agencies) account
for much of the slowdown. Many of the recent
layoff announcements are among business
services firms.
Job growth should accelerate during the
second half as lower interest rates take effect
and business conditions improve. For the
entire year, we’re forecasting an increase
of 3.2%.

CONSTRUCTION
INDUSTRY UPDATE
Amazingly, the construction industry currently leads all other sectors on the basis of
job growth. Construction workers currently
number an all-time record high 165,000, up
5.7% from one year ago. However, during the
past year, residential permits and awards are
both down (permits down 8.5% and awards
down 4.3% using a 12/12 comparison).
Residential building may drop further if
current job growth estimates are accurate. A
recent Wall Street Journal article noted that
it is “normal” to build one-and-a-half new
residential units for every new job. A review
of national and Arizona statistics shows that
the ratio is well below one. Each new job
generates about two-thirds of a house, or

stated alternatively, each new house requires
1.5 new jobs. Recent declines in the number
of new jobs suggest that home building, which
remains at a relatively high level, may move
lower in the coming months (Exhibit 4).
One reason construction employment
continues to grow is that commercial construction is booming. Roughly $4 billion in
non-residential projects were awarded during
the past year–an amount that is one third
larger than the tax-motivated boom of the
mid-1980s, after adjusting for inflation. Most
of these projects are still under construction,
and that supports construction employment.
According to CB Richard Ellis, at the end
of the first quarter there were 7.2 million
square feet of industrial space, 3.5 million
square feet of office space, and 5.1 million
square feet of retail space under construction
in the metro Phoenix market. These magnitudes are the largest in a decade, but in line
with recent absorption (Exhibit 5).
The question is: what happens when these
projects are built out–will there be additional
projects or will the pipeline empty? Reports
surfacing from cities around the country
suggest that office markets are entering an
overbuilt phase as leases, particularly from
dot-com companies, are abandoned. If
vacancies rise, new projects could quickly
dry up.
In Arizona, there are a number of projects
that will help offset any future softness in
commercial construction.
PA GE TH RE E

EXHIBIT 5
Industrial Space Remains Strong

EXHIBIT 6
Soft Landing Ahead

Metro Phoenix (absorption vs. change in inventory)

Nonagricultural Job Growth

•The state is funding over $1 billion of capital
projects over the next few years to build/refurbish
public schools.
•New stadiums for hockey ($250 million) and
football ($350 million) will be built.
•Twenty-some projects are on the drawing board to
build new electric generation plants, which would
nearly double current capacity. Total dollar value
is estimated at $1.8 billion.

Pinnacle West just completed construction
of the first new generating plant to be added
in Arizona since 1988 with a 120-megawatt
“Unit 4” at its West Phoenix Power Station.
Another 530-megawatt unit is planned for
that station as well as four 530-megawatt
units at its Redhawk Power Station. SRP, TEP
and a number of merchant companies plan
to build the rest.

THE OUTLOOK
Other measures also showed significant
slowing in recent months. Retail sales actually
declined by 3.3% statewide in February
before recovering with a 7.5% gain in March.
On a 12-month versus 12-month basis, sales
are 6.6% ahead of last year. That same measure was nearly 11% one year ago. Restaurant
and bar sales gained less than one percent in
February and March, which brings the 12/12
comparison down to 7.2%, again compared
to a double-digit gain of 10.5% one year ago.
Consumers have been carrying the economy
by continuing their spending ways, and we’ll
need a couple more months of poor results
PA GE F OU R

before hoisting the cautionary flag on consumer spending. Measures of consumer confidence continue to remain high compared to
recession readings and, unless job markets
deteriorate significantly and layoffs and unemployment soar, confidence and spending
will remain solid.
The absence of bonus and stock option
income as described earlier also is affecting
state income tax withholding. After running in
double-digit territory the past few years, withholding declined 7.3% in February (compared
to year ago) and 2.0% in March. Twelvemonth versus 12-month comparisons now
show a gain of less than six percent. Income
tax collections also have been affected by
implementation of electronic filing, which
accelerated the processing of refunds, and
that makes net collections look particularly
weak. Recent collections for sales and income
taxes have caused state budgeters to become
much more cautious than in prior years.
It is important to keep in perspective that
a year ago the economy was flying high, so
current comparisons to year ago figures look
weak. This is normal; it is what happens when
the air is let out of a bubble economy. Couple
that with special factors affecting various
measures, and the economy looks significantly
softer than it really is. All in all, the economy is in no worse shape than experienced
during the slowdown of 1996, a period
from which the economy recovered nicely.

Our forecast still calls for below-trend
growth but no recession, either nationally or
statewide. The Arizona economy will generate
72,000 new jobs this year and a number
closer to 60,000 the following year. In
percentage terms, that’s growth in the 2.5%
to 3.5% range. Sales gains should grow by
five to six percent. Population will continue
expanding by 140-150,000 persons per year.
Residential building will recede into the
50-55,000 range, a modest decline of ten
percent or so from current levels (see
Forecast Table page 6 and Exhibit 6).
The pace doesn’t pick up as we go beyond
the next two years, according to our forecasts. That’s not really what we think will
happen. We expect growth to accelerate
once again in 2003 and beyond, but the WEFA
national forecasts that feed into our models
show the national economy remaining in
slow-growth mode. Moreover, the number
of known future projects that we account for
exogenously in our models has dwindled
during the current cautionary climate. In
short, there is nothing to boost growth in the
outlying years. We’ll take a new look at this
in next quarter’s update.
There are a number of major downside
risks going forward that bear watching.
These include:
•the continuing power crisis and economic softness
in California, which could adversely affect Arizona
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

•a potential plunge in both residential and
commercial construction
•deterioration in job markets led by deeper layoffs
in manufacturing and high tech
•consumers could enter a debt deflation cycle in
which bankruptcies soar, confidence plunges and
spending comes to a screeching halt.

Factors that argue for improvement in the
coming months include:
•the Federal Reserve’s quick action to cut interest
rates appears to be taking hold: the money supply
is growing rapidly, the yield curve is once again
positively sloped, and stock market indexes are
well above the lows of two months ago
•construction of new power generating facilities,
school construction and two new sports stadiums
should prop up construction activity.

Moreover, long-term fundamentals remain
positive. The baby boom generation will
continue to have a positive impact on the
economy for at least another decade. Boomers
are in their peak earning, saving, and spending years, and they are knowledgeable and
skilled, which should continue to boost productivity. Finally, the information revolution
will continue to drive the economy as more
and more companies adopt new information
technologies and business models that help
them better manage relationships with their
customers and suppliers, thus boosting
productivity. ■
S P O N S O R S

Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee
Arizona Portland Cement Company
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One Arizona
CB Richard Ellis
City of Mesa
City of Tucson
Compass Bank
Elliott D. Pollack and Company
KB Home
Jim Click Automotive Team
Merrill Lynch
Northern Trust Bank of Arizona
Pima County
Qwest Communications
Qwest Dex
Salt River Project
Territorial Newspapers
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Healthcare Council
Tucson Newspapers
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

Phoenix & Tucson
garner
high
rankings
By Heather Peterson
Research Specialist
In the third annual Forbes/Milken
EXHIBIT 1
Institute’s Best Places for Business and
Forbes/Milken Best Places
Career ranking of 200 metro areas, the
for a Business Career
Phoenix metro area placed 9th (up from
Top 25 Metro Areas in the Western States
23rd last year) and the Tucson metro area
Salary
Rank
Growth
placed 23rd (up from 28th). In determining
Metro
2000 1999 94-99 98-99
these rankings, Institute researchers conSan
Jose,
CA
1
29
2
1
sidered earned income and job growth
Austin-San Marcos, TX
2
1
1
2
as well as activity in certain key high-tech
sectors that would contribute to future
San Francisco, CA
3
42
12
3
growth. Phoenix ranked 14th in the cateBoulder-Longmont, CO
4
4
3
9
gory for the number of technology clusters Dallas, TX
5
24
8
28
and 22nd with respect to the high technoSanta Rosa, CA
6
3
15
30
logy concentration measure. Tucson ranked
7
5
23
8
24th in the tech clusters category and 31st Boise City, ID
San Diego, CA
8
6
28
5
for high tech concentration. Exhibit 1
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ
9
23
6
42
shows rankings for selected metros.
Tucson’s technology cluster approach to
Oakland, CA
10
13
38
20
economic development was favorably high- Sacramento, CA
11
19
36
26
lighted in the May issue of Governing
Orange County, CA
12
7
34
37
magazine. The city is credited with making
Las Vegas, NV-AZ
14
30
5
11
many of the right decisions to foster New
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett,
WA
15
12
4
4
Economy growth, taking advantage of proxVentura, CA
18
32
69
13
imity to university-based research and a
solid labor pool, while attracting a critical Provo-Orem, UT
19
18
14
32
mass of related businesses–all factors
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
20
15
25
55
considered important for success. Indeed, San Luis ObispoTucson has been dubbed “Optics Valley”
Atascadero, CA
21
27
44
76
because of the growth of the optics industry, Denver, CO
22
71
13
7
one of Tucson’s seven industry clusters.
Tucson, AZ
23
28
73
51
This concentration, in turn, has encouraged
the growth of numerous related companies McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 25 36 37 72
26
10
19
63
that make precision measuring and position- Colorado Springs, CO
ing equipment, microscopes, meteorology Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 27 34 49 21
equipment, and related hardware and
Fort Collins-Loveland, CO
31
11
16
67
software. ■
Portland-Vancouver, OR-WA
32
17
22 106

PA G E F IV E

F O R E C A S T

Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

T A B L E S

2000
131,452.2
9.3
25,524.7
6.2
54,349.9
8.9
5,150.0
2.9
99.3
2,250.4
4.0
387.3
2.6
161.6
4.5
215.9
2.0
1,863.1
4.4
525.8
3.2
716.7
5.8

2001
139,668.4
6.3
26,378.8
3.3
57,314.9
5.5
5,294.7
2.8
103.0
2,323.3
3.2
398.8
3.0
168.2
4.1
220.4
2.1
1,924.5
3.3
538.9
2.5
746.1
4.1

2002
147,929.4
5.9
27,178.0
3.0
60,073.1
4.8
5,443.0
2.8
101.1
2,385.6
2.7
401.9
0.8
168.3
0.1
222.9
1.1
1,983.7
3.1
555.0
3.0
775.5
3.9

2003
155,350.3
5.0
27,800.8
2.3
63,052.4
5.0
5,588.0
2.7
98.4
2,444.3
2.5
407.6
1.4
169.4
0.7
227.4
2.0
2,036.7
2.7
568.4
2.4
801.9
3.4

2004
162,541.8
4.6
28,360.5
2.0
65,516.8
3.9
5,731.3
2.6
97.6
2,502.6
2.4
416.4
2.2
171.7
1.4
233.9
2.9
2,086.2
2.4
579.4
1.9
826.8
3.1

2005
169,126.2
4.1
28,788.8
1.5
67,733.9
3.4
5,874.7
2.5
96.7
2,557.7
2.2
423.6
1.7
174.9
1.8
237.9
1.7
2,134.1
2.3
588.3
1.5
852.3
3.1

2006
175,697.2
3.9
29,198.8
1.4
69,952.8
3.3
6,017.3
2.4
95.7
2,612.8
2.2
429.2
1.3
177.4
1.5
240.9
1.3
2,183.6
2.3
596.9
1.5
880.3
3.3

Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

2000
91,343.0
9.8
27,998.7
6.3
37,294.7
8.5
3,262.4
3.2
69.6
1,580.9
3.7
288.0
2.0
117.3
3.2
167.8
2.0
1,293.0
4.0
376.0
3.6
513.0
4.1

2001
97,077.9
6.3
28,884.4
3.2
39,163.0
5.0
3,360.9
3.0
65.5
1,633.6
3.3
292.2
1.5
119.9
2.2
169.7
1.1
1,341.4
3.7
388.3
3.3
534.3
4.2

2002
102,496.4
5.6
29,644.8
2.6
41,402.2
5.7
3,457.5
2.9
63.1
1,680.5
2.9
297.5
1.8
120.1
0.2
174.9
3.1
1,382.9
3.1
401.4
3.4
551.5
3.2

2003
107,886.8
5.3
30,379.1
2.5
43,721.2
5.6
3,551.4
2.7
60.3
1,723.8
2.6
301.0
1.2
119.5
-0.6
179.1
2.4
1,422.8
2.9
413.3
3.0
568.9
3.2

2004
113,406.4
5.1
31,125.0
2.5
45,633.7
4.4
3,643.6
2.6
58.6
1,764.8
2.4
306.5
1.8
119.7
0.2
184.4
2.9
1,458.3
2.5
421.5
2.0
585.6
2.9

2005
118,526.3
4.5
31,745.4
2.0
47,208.7
3.5
3,733.7
2.5
56.3
1,800.1
2.0
309.7
1.1
120.4
0.6
186.9
1.4
1,490.3
2.2
427.3
1.4
601.9
2.8

2006
123,968.1
4.6
32,439.8
2.2
48,825.2
3.4
3,821.5
2.4
53.9
1,833.0
1.8
311.0
0.4
120.4
0.0
188.3
0.7
1,522.0
2.1
432.5
1.2
618.7
2.8

Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

2000
20,732.1
7.9
23,940.1
5.4
8,502.1
8.2
866.0
2.4
15.3
350.7
4.2
56.8
5.1
21.9
1.6
33.1
8.0
293.9
4.1
72.7
2.7
119.0
5.5

2001
21,884.3
5.6
24,684.0
3.1
8,893.1
4.6
886.6
2.4
15.6
359.5
2.5
58.2
2.4
21.8
-0.3
34.4
4.1
301.3
2.5
73.9
1.5
123.0
3.3

2002
23,110.1
5.6
25,544.5
3.5
9,272.0
4.3
904.7
2.0
13.0
368.1
2.4
60.0
3.1
21.6
-0.8
36.3
5.5
308.2
2.3
75.8
2.6
126.8
3.1

2003
24,267.5
5.0
26,317.2
3.0
9,701.5
4.6
922.1
1.9
12.1
375.0
1.9
60.2
0.4
21.5
-0.7
36.7
1.0
314.8
2.2
77.5
2.2
130.2
2.7

2004
25,397.4
4.7
27,067.8
2.9
10,079.3
3.9
938.3
1.8
10.9
380.6
1.5
60.4
0.3
21.4
-0.4
36.9
0.6
320.2
1.7
78.5
1.3
133.3
2.4

2005
26,491.3
4.3
27,773.7
2.6
10,433.6
3.5
953.8
1.7
10.2
385.9
1.4
60.7
0.5
21.5
0.3
37.1
0.5
325.2
1.5
79.0
0.7
136.4
2.3

2006
27,659.4
4.4
28,531.3
2.7
10,828.4
3.8
969.4
1.6
10.2
391.6
1.5
61.0
0.5
21.6
0.5
37.3
0.6
330.5
1.6
79.7
0.9
139.9
2.6

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Karl Eller Graduate School of Management, Eller College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona
PA GE S IX

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining (Mohave County only)
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
2000

JAN
2001

FEB
2001

MAR
2001

APR
2001

66,100
53,675
12,425
18.8

63,150
52,725
10,425
16.5

61,350
51,750
9,600
15.6

60,850
51,675
9,175
15.1

65,650
50,575
15,075
23.0

4.2
9.6
-10.5
-14.2

0.9
3.9
-6.3
-6.1

43,900
2,850
2,275
1,750
13,100
1,425
10,425
12,075

42,375
2,700
2,200
1,675
12,575
1,425
10,275
11,525

43,475
2,725
2,200
1,675
12,875
1,425
10,375
12,200

43,450
2,700
2,200
1,675
12,825
1,425
10,400
12,225

41,575
2,700
2,200
1,600
11,375
1,375
10,125
12,200

5.1
5.9
-2.2
4.9
5.3
3.8
5.5
5.9

5.1
0.5
0.9
2.6
1.8
8.8
7.2
8.8

120,422
97,439
10,977
12,006
7,816
20,410

100,155
77,438
10,954
11,763
8,098
12,905

104,697
81,088
11,651
11,958
8,188
12,136

110,412
86,370
11,312
12,730
8,807
11,813

...
...
...
...
...
...

9.5
13.7
0.0
-6.1
1.7
-29.4

4.5
4.6
3.2
5.4
-8.3
4.1

7,207
5,146
1,279
782

8,505
5,773
1,340
1,392

12,159
5,738
3,891
2,530

28,606
9,187
18,528
891

7,542
6,757
0
785

-51.5
-44.8
-100.0
...

-13.3
-7.8
-24.2
-10.0

61
61

68
68

55
55

105
105

69
69

-35.5
-35.5

-16.6
-8.9

72,650
69,525
3,125
4.3

72,775
69,275
3,500
4.8

73,175
69,500
3,675
5.0

73,525
70,050
3,475
4.7

73,750
70,600
3,150
4.3

7.8
7.9
5.0
-2.6

3.5
3.7
0.1
-3.3

48,425
100
3,975
3,725
2,400
14,400
1,425
12,525
9,875

48,275
100
3,900
3,700
2,375
14,100
1,425
12,800
9,875

48,600
100
4,200
3,700
2,400
14,075
1,400
12,625
10,100

49,050
100
4,275
3,725
2,425
14,100
1,425
12,900
10,100

49,000
100
4,300
3,700
2,450
14,100
1,400
12,900
10,050

4.8
0.0
21.1
1.4
7.7
2.0
-6.7
7.3
2.3

7.7
-4.0
12.9
0.6
7.5
5.6
-2.0
10.6
9.7

124,687
96,447
12,255
15,985
10,406
24,348

113,050
80,464
16,959
15,627
10,758
22,786

112,051
82,238
13,729
16,084
11,013
19,945

110,815
85,008
8,226
17,581
12,162
23,080

...
...
...
...
...
...

-18.3
-4.3
-44.9
-44.7
-40.1
-3.2

6.6
6.9
0.4
10.7
-2.7
12.4

18,848
14,533
1,280
3,035

14,445
11,995
1,231
1,219

23,383
14,643
227
8,513

27,992
21,376
5,517
1,099

24,755
20,533
887
3,335

33.4
21.4
-10.2
402.3

-2.4
2.5
-4.8
-9.7

149
145

121
119

152
148

213
211

209
199

24.4
18.5

-0.5
-0.7

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PAGE SEVEN

A R I Z O N A

COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
2000

JAN
2001

FEB
2001

MAR
2001

APR
2001

40,350
38,600
1,750
4.3

40,275
38,275
2,000
5.0

40,325
38,250
2,075
5.1

40,375
38,450
1,925
4.8

40,575
38,725
1,850
4.6

6.4
6.1
12.1
5.4

1.4
2.1
-11.6
-12.8

32,600
1,850
1,025
1,325
7,800
775
8,325
11,500

32,000
1,850
1,000
1,325
7,650
750
8,125
11,300

32,375
1,875
1,000
1,325
7,650
750
8,125
11,650

32,400
1,875
1,000
1,325
7,650
750
8,100
11,700

32,375
1,875
1,000
1,300
7,600
750
8,175
11,675

2.8
1.4
-9.1
2.0
2.0
3.4
0.0
6.9

4.0
-5.8
1.2
4.9
3.2
6.8
1.8
8.0

75,636
61,678
7,301
6,657
4,334
11,222

56,838
44,362
6,449
6,027
4,149
8,321

57,482
44,225
7,084
6,173
4,227
11,701

63,367
50,300
6,594
6,473
4,478
12,355

...
...
...
...
...
...

7.7
18.2
-13.1
-25.5
-19.2
-12.1

7.1
12.2
1.0
-15.4
-27.3
-9.9

4,267
3,637
0
630

17,284
3,949
7,500
5,835

7,131
3,218
670
3,243

9,675
4,823
4,460
392

10,183
5,364
970
3,849

-46.8
-53.4
-79.3
30.4

-14.4
-14.1
12.8
-36.6

38
38

46
46

36
36

54
54

60
60

-57.4
-1.6

-9.9
2.6

13,875
12,400
1,475
10.6

13,675
12,500
1,175
8.6

13,475
12,425
1,050
7.8

13,450
12,450
1,000
7.4

13,400
12,500
900
6.7

8.9
10.4
-7.7
-15.3

1.4
4.8
-16.5
-16.9

13,025
400
1,050
1,375
4,400
225
1,925
3,650

13,025
400
1,050
1,325
4,375
225
1,950
3,700

13,150
400
1,075
1,375
4,375
225
1,950
3,750

13,200
400
1,075
1,400
4,350
225
1,975
3,775

13,150
400
1,025
1,375
4,350
225
1,950
3,825

7.6
6.7
5.1
14.6
-6.5
0.0
8.3
27.5

6.8
6.7
9.6
6.8
-3.5
0.9
10.3
19.7

37,702
31,198
3,109
3,395
2,210
4,190

23,873
18,087
2,824
2,962
2,039
3,048

26,655
19,789
3,340
3,526
2,414
2,198

30,605
23,617
3,283
3,705
2,563
4,397

...
...
...
...
...
...

25.4
25.2
30.2
23.0
33.2
3.7

13.3
13.4
10.7
15.1
-0.8
-21.3

4,808
1,938
150
2,720

4,397
2,447
1,950
0

5,817
3,098
531
2,188

4,082
3,102
293
687

4,852
4,261
591
0

-36.8
-33.3
-54.4
...

9.7
10.9
-10.8
33.8

20
20

20
20

24
24

33
26

35
35

-60.2
25.0

25.9
-3.2

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE EIGHT

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining (Greenlee County only)
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
2000

JAN
2001

FEB
2001

MAR
2001

APR
2001

17,275
16,250
1,025
5.9

17,075
16,025
1,050
6.1

17,125
16,025
1,100
6.4

17,275
16,150
1,125
6.5

17,325
16,275
1,050
6.1

1.8
1.1
13.5
11.5

-2.7
-2.0
-13.2
-10.6

14,325
700
1,150
1,125
475
3,300
300
2,525
4,750

13,925
675
1,050
1,100
450
3,200
275
2,475
4,700

14,050
675
1,050
1,125
475
3,200
275
2,475
4,775

14,100
675
1,050
1,100
450
3,225
275
2,525
4,800

14,175
675
1,000
1,100
450
3,250
275
2,600
4,825

-1.4
-3.6
0.0
2.3
-18.2
-1.5
0.0
1.0
-1.5

0.0
-1.8
9.6
1.0
-4.1
-2.3
12.4
-1.3
0.2

31,231
22,839
3,581
4,811
3,132
7,443

22,642
16,976
3,140
2,526
1,739
7,429

22,835
16,934
3,140
2,761
1,891
6,509

25,946
18,750
3,785
3,411
2,360
6,301

...
...
...
...
...
...

8.8
9.6
14.6
-0.8
7.5
-8.8

3.3
3.6
2.3
2.5
-12.3
18.0

2,770
2,770
0
0

5,577
2,856
2,721
0

3,454
3,346
0
108

5,441
3,866
1,359
216

13,983
2,861
8,583
2,539

63.2
-42.4
138.6
...

14.8
-19.3
15.6
90.1

17
17

22
22

25
25

27
27

21
21

-43.2
-43.2

-21.5
-18.3

14,725
13,975
750
5.1

14,725
13,775
950
6.5

14,725
13,650
1,075
7.3

14,900
13,775
1,125
7.6

15,025
13,800
1,225
8.2

3.8
1.5
40.0
34.9

-1.5
-0.0
-18.3
-17.1

11,325
2,400
850
300
200
2,425
175
1,725
3,250

11,050
2,400
850
275
200
2,350
175
1,725
3,075

11,275
2,400
875
275
200
2,300
175
1,750
3,300

11,325
2,375
850
275
200
2,300
175
1,750
3,400

11,200
2,350
700
275
200
2,325
175
1,800
3,375

-3.0
-5.1
-12.5
0.0
-11.1
2.2
0.0
-1.4
-3.6

1.5
-5.5
44.4
5.3
-13.0
3.2
5.0
-2.7
0.5

24,789
21,175
1,691
1,923
1,252
2,851

19,966
16,691
1,594
1,681
1,157
2,840

19,710
16,297
1,709
1,704
1,167
2,747

19,243
16,045
1,454
1,744
1,206
3,267

...
...
...
...
...
...

-9.8
-4.3
-19.7
-37.0
-31.8
20.1

6.4
8.3
-2.3
-1.3
-14.5
-22.2

994
994
0
0

1,267
571
696
500

793
793
0
9,926

815
815
0
0

662
662
0
4,029

-80.9
-1.3
-100.0
...

-26.8
6.1
-55.1
279.0

7
7

8
8

8
8

7
7

6
6

0.0
0.0

-31.5
11.1

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
AR IZON A ’S ECON O MY

PAGE NINE

A R I Z O N A

APACHE-NAVAJO REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
2000

JAN
2001

FEB
2001

MAR
2001

APR
2001

50,900
45,075
5,825
11.4

51,375
44,400
6,975
13.6

51,325
44,550
6,775
13.2

50,850
44,900
5,950
11.7

50,525
45,275
5,250
10.4

1.4
1.5
0.5
-0.9

-3.5
-2.7
-8.8
-5.3

46,325
850
2,150
1,150
2,525
8,375
1,425
7,450
22,400

45,275
850
2,075
1,150
2,525
8,025
1,375
7,275
22,000

45,750
850
2,050
1,125
2,525
8,050
1,350
7,350
22,450

46,025
825
2,050
1,125
2,525
8,075
1,350
7,475
22,600

46,275
825
2,025
1,150
2,500
8,250
1,350
7,750
22,425

-1.1
-5.7
8.0
4.5
0.0
5.1
3.8
-2.2
-4.0

-1.1
-1.4
1.0
-4.9
0.8
6.1
2.6
-2.2
-3.5

73,819
58,962
5,476
9,381
6,107
14,054

58,850
44,873
4,353
9,624
6,625
10,217

56,843
42,679
4,860
9,304
6,371
9,570

59,483
43,292
5,139
11,052
7,646
11,078

...
...
...
...
...
...

-23.2
-29.8
5.2
1.2
9.6
1.5

-3.2
-6.5
5.4
11.3
-4.3
23.8

12,533
5,368
6,920
245

5,901
5,901
0
0

24,361
5,667
6,986
11,708

10,776
6,071
2,492
2,213

16,175
11,230
3,500
1,445

90.3
50.2
460.0
262.2

-23.2
5.9
-62.6
4.0

44
33

45
45

39
39

50
50

86
86

59.3
59.3

-3.2
4.5

131,575
126,200
5,375
4.1

129,850
123,725
6,125
4.7

132,475
126,275
6,200
4.7

132,600
127,025
5,575
4.2

134,250
129,350
4,900
3.6

5.9
5.8
8.9
2.8

3.2
3.8
-8.4
-11.2

111,200
1,200
8,525
5,950
2,925
27,350
3,075
32,575
29,600

107,850
1,200
8,350
5,825
2,725
26,250
3,025
31,225
29,250

110,475
1,225
8,425
5,800
2,775
26,525
3,050
31,725
30,950

110,450
1,225
8,450
5,825
2,825
26,575
3,050
31,850
30,650

112,100
1,225
8,625
5,900
2,850
27,125
3,100
32,050
31,225

3.0
8.9
11.3
-0.4
0.9
3.4
1.6
4.1
0.2

6.0
15.0
15.5
0.5
1.3
2.8
6.9
8.4
5.4

231,534
178,260
31,173
22,101
14,388
50,712

171,360
124,383
25,935
21,042
14,486
44,848

177,687
128,432
29,375
19,880
13,613
59,970

195,540
141,352
30,683
23,505
16,261
47,117

...
...
...
...
...
...

-0.0
2.3
-6.9
-3.7
4.3
4.8

5.2
4.2
-0.8
22.3
5.1
1.1

31,576
23,579
4,122
3,875

35,357
24,870
4,003
6,484

47,520
37,832
4,715
4,973

53,648
34,308
1,543
17,797

77,054
35,416
13,735
27,903

38.9
0.1
97.4
112.2

2.9
1.1
22.4
-8.3

181
153

169
169

286
179

271
238

261
253

-1.1
16.6

-9.1
2.8

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TEN

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
2000

JAN
2001

FEB
2001

MAR
2001

APR
2001

1,605.7
1,567.2
38.5
2.5

1,591.6
1,548.6
43.0
2.7

1,603.7
1,558.0
45.7
3.0

1,615.2
1,564.3
50.9
3.4

1,619.3
1,568.6
50.7
3.5

5.3
4.6
34.8
29.6

1.3
1.5
-5.3
-5.3

1,631.2
2.6
121.8
166.9
130.0
36.9
86.5
388.7
92.1
296.6
123.1
533.2
208.4

1,590.6
2.6
120.1
166.5
130.0
36.5
84.6
376.4
91.5
284.9
121.7
520.8
197.9

1,608.4
2.6
121.7
166.1
129.8
36.3
85.0
378.3
92.2
286.1
121.8
526.1
206.8

1,610.5
2.5
122.1
164.8
128.3
36.5
85.1
378.2
92.4
285.8
122.4
528.0
207.4

1,612.0
2.5
122.7
164.2
127.8
36.4
84.9
379.3
91.9
287.4
122.9
528.0
207.5

2.2
0.0
4.8
0.3
1.3
-3.2
3.2
1.9
2.0
1.8
3.1
1.8
3.1

3.5
-17.6
5.3
1.0
1.8
-1.8
3.7
2.6
2.1
2.7
2.5
4.8
3.6

3,808,658
2,839,963
391,435
387,465
189,794
703,151

3,060,069
2,116,404
400,106
365,686
177,873
599,977

2,923,273
1,954,616
402,319
385,904
180,434
603,378

3,395,775
2,404,037
403,453
411,879
176,405
697,451

...
...
...
...
...
...

7.8
9.8
8.0
2.3
-3.9
5.4

7.6
7.2
5.7
6.5
21.3
2.9

651,616
353,756
278,574
19,286

844,927
462,964
375,796
6,167

851,280
479,588
295,661
76,031

826,924
502,688
302,157
22,079

785,720
600,795
162,624
22,301

-23.2
7.6
-54.6
-79.0

-4.0
-2.8
-3.2
-14.8

2,559
2,186
34
339

2,837
2,606
57
174

4,224
2,812
131
1,281

4,160
3,205
82
873

...
...
...
...

-19.7
-6.2
-18.0
-47.6

-9.0
-7.3
58.6
-18.2

790,574
4,539
174,174

598,469
3,442
173,872

694,925
4,172
166,569

1,116,005
6,377
175,005

904,207
5,252
172,164

-2.9
-1.3
-1.6

8.4
1.7
6.5

3,000,795
53,695

2,898,849
54,254

2,863,955
50,172

3,530,922
56,822

...
...

3.2
0.9

6.0
10.0

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA
I
II
2000
2000
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
3,224.7
3,249.7
Natural Increase
7.8
7.9
Births
13.6
13.8
Deaths
5.9
5.9
Net Migration
17.6
17.1
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
88,988
90,703
Earnings by Place of Work
67,071
68,484
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
4,218
4,306
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
-100
-100
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
16,528
16,737
Plus: Transfer Payments
9,707
9,889
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
27,595
27,911

% change versus year ago for:
most recent most recent
quarter
4-quarters

III
2000

IV
2000

I
2001

3,274.6
8.0
13.9
5.9
16.8

3,299.5
8.0
14.0
6.0
16.9

3,324.2
8.2
14.2
6.0
16.5

3.1
5.5
4.3
2.6
-6.3

3.2
6.4
4.3
1.5
-8.2

92,183
69,733
4,388
-100
16,867
10,071
28,151

93,499
70,864
4,465
-99
16,941
10,258
28,337

95,201
72,317
4,558
-99
17,151
10,389
28,639

7.0
7.8
8.0
1.8
3.8
7.0
3.8

8.8
9.4
9.0
1.9
7.0
7.4
5.4

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PAGE ELEVEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

APR
2001

DEC
2000

JAN
2001

FEB
2001

MAR
2001

390.6
380.5
10.1
2.6

388.1
376.7
11.4
2.9

392.9
381.0
11.9
3.1

395.6
383.7
11.9
3.3

396.8
385.2
11.6
3.4

4.2
3.9
16.0
13.3

0.2
0.6
-12.6
-12.0

357.9
1.9
21.8
33.6
28.3
5.3
12.3
75.1
11.1
64.0
14.0
120.1
79.1

349.7
1.9
21.4
33.4
28.2
5.2
11.8
73.1
10.9
62.2
13.6
118.5
76.0

355.1
1.9
21.4
33.4
28.3
5.1
12.1
73.4
10.7
62.7
13.6
120.6
78.7

356.6
1.9
21.4
33.2
28.3
4.9
12.0
73.7
10.8
62.9
13.7
120.9
79.8

357.4
1.8
21.5
33.3
28.4
4.9
12.0
74.0
10.7
63.3
14.0
121.1
79.7

1.6
-5.3
0.0
1.5
3.6
-9.3
0.8
1.5
-0.9
1.9
2.9
2.0
1.7

2.7
0.4
-0.8
4.8
7.1
-6.3
0.1
1.5
0.8
1.6
-2.7
3.5
4.0

873,975
635,003
97,213
88,509
53,251
125,913

685,611
456,291
95,509
84,657
49,154
119,465

706,232
467,511
96,038
90,101
52,582
114,260

756,535
515,850
96,308
93,722
50,654
123,466

...
...
...
...
...
...

2.9
4.4
3.8
5.1
-14.2
1.1

6.9
6.2
5.9
5.8
18.5
3.7

103,543
83,818
15,905
3,820

124,479
87,257
33,024
4,198

123,972
82,152
13,017
28,803

124,297
101,027
15,417
7,853

132,742
95,984
31,873
4,885

-9.9
-16.4
16.8
-7.8

-20.3
-8.0
-36.9
-40.4

479
444
35

609
509
100

765
576
190

759
626
133

...
...
...

2.9
-3.9
53.9

-7.2
-5.7
-13.2

120,288
741
162,333

106,353
698
152,368

113,845
759
149,994

164,662
1,069
154,034

...
...
...

-2.0
-3.3
1.3

2.0
-4.0
6.4

310,013
17,608

308,188
21,920

318,039
21,272

364,184
26,370

343,350
22,000

8.7
0.1

4.8
-6.7

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

I
2001

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

I
2000

II
2000

III
2000

IV
2000

858.3
1.2
3.0
1.8
3.9

863.5
1.2
3.0
1.8
3.9

868.6
1.2
3.1
1.8
3.9

874.0
1.2
3.1
1.8
4.2

879.2
1.2
3.1
1.9
3.9

2.4
-0.1
1.6
2.7
1.3

2.4
3.7
3.6
3.5
1.1

20,272
12,898
770
139
4,928
3,078
23,619

20,600
13,116
784
141
5,000
3,127
23,858

20,893
13,312
796
143
5,058
3,175
24,053

21,163
13,493
807
147
5,106
3,225
24,213

21,464
13,704
820
149
5,176
3,256
24,413

5.9
6.2
6.4
7.1
5.0
5.8
3.4

7.2
7.6
7.7
0.3
6.8
6.5
4.6

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table
PAGE TWELVE

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Transportation
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
Schools
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s)
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
2000

JAN
2001

FEB
2001

MAR
2001

APR
2001

2,403.8
2,323.4
80.4
3.7

2,382.5
2,296.0
86.5
3.9

2,400.6
2,311.4
89.2
4.1

2,414.6
2,322.5
92.1
4.4

2,426.6
2,330.9
95.7
4.3

5.1
4.7
17.3
10.3

1.1
1.5
-7.3
-8.2

2,312.7
9.7
165.7
217.2
169.6
47.6
112.0
74.8
545.9
114.9
431.0
146.2
733.4
382.6
47.3
335.3
185.9
40.7

2,256.0
9.7
163.2
216.6
169.5
47.1
109.2
71.8
528.7
113.8
414.9
144.3
717.5
366.8
46.1
320.7
171.2
40.6

2,285.8
9.6
165.1
216.5
169.5
47.0
109.7
72.3
531.4
114.5
416.9
144.4
725.7
383.4
46.3
337.1
186.8
40.6

2,290.7
9.6
165.3
214.7
167.8
46.9
109.8
72.6
532.6
114.5
418.1
145.0
728.7
385.0
46.6
338.4
187.1
40.2

2,292.7
9.5
165.9
214.3
167.5
46.8
109.7
72.7
533.6
113.6
420.0
145.8
728.8
385.1
46.7
338.4
187.0
39.5

2.2
-2.1
4.7
0.7
1.9
-3.5
2.9
3.7
2.1
2.6
2.0
3.0
1.9
2.0
-6.6
3.3
3.1
-2.0

3.4
-6.1
5.0
1.6
2.7
-2.0
3.3
3.9
2.6
2.1
2.7
2.1
4.8
3.1
0.6
3.5
4.2
-0.1

15.81
12.89
20.09
11.05
14.90

16.05
12.78
20.52
11.17
14.45

15.72
12.79
20.57
11.28
14.88

16.05
12.86
20.52
11.36
14.54

16.01
12.97
21.15
11.46
14.48

8.0
0.9
13.0
-2.6
4.0

8.2
0.4
11.4
-1.9
5.2

5,522,974
4,042,964
609,168
551,537
319,305
207,868
425,723
265,128
62,006
308,833
964,294
35,219
126,462

4,432,351
2,995,969
615,526
522,551
298,304
205,359
460,452
240,012
69,470
321,732
831,836
32,799
181,007

4,328,039
2,853,809
618,931
550,893
304,406
208,440
447,491
227,870
71,170
289,904
842,414
26,020
204,883

4,888,635
3,384,621
620,676
576,077
307,261
212,564
414,649
239,361
86,037
317,432
940,325
28,309
234,806

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

5.4
7.6
6.7
0.8
-9.9
-2.4
10.4
12.0
18.0
-2.6
3.5
-27.2
3.0

7.6
6.6
8.6
7.2
17.8
1.9
11.2
16.5
1.5
6.0
3.1
-43.4
6.9

838,162
495,539
308,230
34,393

1,062,639
608,583
428,261
25,795

1,109,796
636,075
325,698
148,023

1,092,256
687,263
351,766
53,227

1,077,697
783,863
222,763
71,071

-17.5
2.0
-45.6
-44.9

-6.2
-3.3
-8.8
-14.4

3,442
3,031
67
344

3,758
3,504
75
179

5,308
3,781
172
1,355

5,427
4,393
156
878

...
...
...
...

-16.5
-5.7
-1.9
-47.8

-8.5
-6.2
17.0
-20.1

1,592
1,262
36
294

1,521
1,139
23
359

1,605
1,225
30
350

2,497
2,085
21
391

2,296
1,896
27
373

32.3
34.0
-6.9
28.2

1.3
2.0
-11.8
-0.6

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
AR IZON A ’S E CON O MY

PAGE THIRTEEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

I N D I C A T O R S

I
2000

II
2000

III
2000

IV
2000

I
2001

5,095.6
11.2
21.1
9.9
25.1

5,131.9
11.2
21.1
9.9
25.1

5,167.8
11.0
21.3
10.3
24.6

5,203.6
11.5
21.5
10.0
24.5

5,239.8
11.1
21.3
10.1
25.2

2.8
-0.5
0.9
2.5
0.4

2.9
6.3
4.5
2.6
-5.5

129,770
92,621
5,684
414
25,722
16,697

129,474
92,219
5,663
422
25,418
17,078

132,306
94,506
5,782
441
25,851
17,289

134,258
96,157
5,867
458
26,183
17,327

136,853
98,196
6,042
476
26,604
17,619

5.5
6.0
6.3
15.1
3.4
5.5

7.7
8.3
7.6
9.6
6.4
6.5

75,291
7,564
9,530
392
9,139
25,467
33,463

75,238
7,560
9,868
459
9,409
25,229
33,063

76,737
7,644
10,052
560
9,492
25,602
33,349

78,041
7,731
9,823
340
9,483
25,801
33,870

...
...
...
...
...
26,118
...

9.5
5.9
4.4
-31.5
6.4
2.6
5.9

10.6
6.2
8.1
-8.5
9.0
4.7
6.5

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA

Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles

MAR
2001

APR
2001

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
2000

JAN
2001

FEB
2001

834,667
79,275
265,889
489,503
208,456
42,603
152,561
13,292

869,277
72,002
224,521
572,754
277,590
57,172
197,990
22,428

898,776
91,639
209,372
597,765
364,497
74,582
259,041
30,874

1,370,323
154,538
445,476
770,309
493,899
76,298
366,348
51,253

1,829,384
212,861
518,321
1,098,202
358,596
60,093
245,250
53,253

-2.1
13.1
-6.4
-2.5
7.0
5.2
9.8
-2.4

-3.2
-5.0
-4.1
-2.5
-0.0
-1.6
2.4
-8.8

839,157
2,449,476
943,295

720,638
1,995,068
905,197

681,289
2,030,659
...

755,448
2,209,472
...

...
...
...

-5.6
2.5
6.5

0.3
5.7
3.3

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA

Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

DEC
2000

JAN
2001

FEB
2001

MAR
2001

174.0
170.7

175.1
171.7

175.8
172.4

176.2
172.6

APR
2001
176.9
173.5

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
3.3
3.3

3.4
3.4

Sources and abbreviations:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department
of Commerce
PA GE F OU RT EE N

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department
of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems
Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission)
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior
PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport

SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service,
U.S. Department of Justice
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department
of the Treasury

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA

Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1992=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

I
2001

% change versus year ago for:
most recent most recent
quarter
4-quarters

I
2000

II
2000

III
2000

IV
2000

173.5
169.9
166.7

174.3
171.7
168.5

176.6
173.1
169.7

177.1
174.0
170.7

180.1
175.7
172.2

3.8
3.4
3.3

3.8
3.4
3.4

106.2
106.6

106.8
107.1

107.2
107.6

107.8
108.1

108.1
108.7

1.8
2.0

2.1
2.3

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

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PAGE FIFTEEN