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2 0 0 1

NO RECESSION
IN ARIZONA
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
March 1, 2001

I

n recent weeks, the main storyline
has been the speedy onset of recession.
That is the wrong word to describe
present economic conditions. It takes a
really good stretch of the imagination
(as well as the current crop of data)
to see recession nation-wide. Yes, the
national economy has slowed from a
gallop to a trot, but our steed is nowhere
near a trip to the glue factory. In Arizona,
there is no recession in sight (or even
on the radar screen). Here, it is hard to
find much of a slowdown! The best bet
for the near term is for growth to recede
to a rate below the speed limit followed
by acceleration back up to the economy’s
potential. So far, the slow-down resembles
the 1995-96 period—and those were
pretty good years.
Exhibit 1 shows the single, best overall
measure of where the national economy
is today, the Conference Board’s Index of
Coincident Indicators. A companion of the
leading indicator index, the coincider is
comprised of four basic measures: jobs,
sales, industrial production and personal
income. With data through December, this
index stands at an all-time record high
(Exhibit 1). To make the case for recession,
one has to believe that this index is peaking
and that it will decline in the months to
come. But that is a forecast. In reality, the
economy has slowed down (the curve has
flattened), but that does not mean that
recession will follow. The curve flattened

S P R I N G

I S S U E

in 1989 and again in
EXHIBIT 1
1995 before turning
Decade-Long Expansion Continues
upward again. Overall
Coincident Index (The Economy)
activity must contract
(the line must turn
down)for the economy
to be in recession.
The shaded portions
show periods of
recession as officially
determined by the
National Bureau of
Economic Research
(NBER), the arbiter
of such things as
business cycle dating.
The popular definition
of recession is two
quarters of negative
growth in real GDP,
but NBER doesn’t use
GDP in its analysis.
To determine whether a recession has
and mild—barely qualifying as a recession.
occurred, NBER researchers look for three
It lasted but eight months and declined 2.1%
D’s: depth, duration and dispersion. First,
from peak to trough. Ignoring that period,
the economy must contract from the peak
the last time the US economy was in a “real”
by a significant amount, roughly two percent
recession was 1981-82, nearly two decades
or more. Second, the contraction must last
ago! Many reporters and Wall Street analysts
for a minimum amount of time—the shortest
weren’t around back then, and so the current
on record, from January to July of 1980,
slowdown often is incorrectly referred to as
lasted six months. Third, the contraction
a recession.
needs to be widely dispersed across many
Frankly, it doesn’t make much sense to use
industries. Declines in one or two industries
the “R” word when unemployment is only
do not a recession make.
four percent and labor remains in short
The recession of 1990-91 was very short
supply. The best description of the economy
I N S I D E
FORECAST TABLES ................4
1999 AVERAGE PAY ............5
REPORT ON SCHOOL CHOICE ..6
2000 CENSUS .....................8
ARIZONA’S NEW
ECONOMY INITIATIVES .........9
ECONOMIC INDICATORS ......11

ELLER COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

T UCSON, ARIZONA

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EXHIBIT 2
Jobs Are Still Growing…

EXHIBIT 3
So Is Personal Income…

Nonag Employment, AZ (seasonally adjusted)

Personal Income Less Transfers (AZ, 1996 dollars, SAAR)

presently is that the economy is catching its
breath following near exhaustion from ten
years of expansion and very strong growth
in 1999-2000.
The Federal Reserve cut short-term interest
rates twice in January. What was the Fed
worried about? Chairman Greenspan was
most concerned about cutbacks in auto production during the fourth quarter and first
quarter of this year in response to growing
inventories. As noted in last quarter’s report,
auto sales last year soared to the lofty level
of 17.5 million units per year—a clearly
unsustainable level. As auto output returns
to a more “normal” level, it will have a
significant effect on the economy. Auto
industry resizing also is reflected by poor
readings from the Purchasing Management
Association, an index that Chairman
Greenspan follows closely (more on this
later).
A second item of concern was the drying up
of liquidity in secondary financial markets—
similar in some respects to the late 1998
world financial crisis. Financial markets
have responded favorably to rate cuts, and
liquidity has returned to secondary markets
such as the high yield (or junk bond)
market. Mortgage rates dropped to 6-1/2%
in early January and remain below seven
percent currently.
Finally, the Fed Chairman was concerned
by near hysteria and panic in financial
PAGE TWO

markets. Here too, rate cuts have soothed
nerves on Wall Street.
Data for the national economy—employment, retail sales, auto sales and housing—
were significantly better in January than
reported in November and December, which
shows our steed is still on its feet. So far, the
slowdown looks a lot like the soft landing
of 1996, not recession—and that’s the best
forecast at this time.
The biggest threat to this expansion
currently is pessimism. We could talk ourselves into recession—if consumers and
businesses curtail spending, the slowdown
could turn into overall contraction. But the
odds are small. Even though consumer
confidence has fallen to the lowest level in
four years, it remains at high levels and is
significantly higher than during the 1990-91
recession.
The consensus forecast calls for growth
in real GDP this year of 2-2.5%. Only a year
or so ago, the economics profession and
monetary authorities thought that the
economy’s speed limit was 2.2%. It is now
closer to four percent given the acceleration
in productivity in recent years! The consensus
forecasts calls for growth below the speed
limit this year, but no recession. This means
that the unemployment rate may rise—and
that would be a welcome relief for tightly
strained labor markets.

NO RECESSION IN ARIZONA
Ideally, we could construct a coincident
index for Arizona similar to the one for the
nation. Unfortunately, not all components
are available for states on a comparable
basis. The personal income measure is
not published monthly—only quarterly for
states. The sales measure is quite different
by definition; the nationwide measure is for
“manufacturing and trade” sales—a very
broad measure, whereas only retail sales
are available for states. Finally, industrial
production is not available at all.
Even though we are unable to construct
an overall index for Arizona, much can
be gained by looking at the available components. First, jobs. Arizona led the nation for
most of 2000 as measured by job creation,
trading with Nevada for the top spot as the
year came to an end. With data through
December, jobs were 3.7% higher than one
year earlier and up 4.4% for the entire year,
standing at an all time record high of nearly
2.3 million (Exhibit 2). Some flattening in
the last few months is evident, but payrolls
are still growing at a rate twice as fast as
nationwide. Moreover, growth remains faster
than late 1998. Although the pattern of growth
could look very different after the data is
revised in a few weeks, revisions over the
past several years have been upward to
show more jobs and stronger growth.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

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EXHIBIT 4
Likewise for Retail Sales

EXHIBIT 5
AZ’s Industrial Sector Healthy and Expanding

Real Retail Sales, AZ (1999 dollars, SAAR, smoothed)

Purchasing Management Index (US and AZ, smoothed)

The second measure is personal income
less transfer payments, adjusted for inflation.
With data through the third quarter 2000,
this measure also stands at an all-time high
(Exhibit 3). During the past year, this
measure has increased by a strong 5.4%.
Ignoring a big jump in the first quarter of
2000, recent readings compare to growth
registered during 1999. There is no sign
of a slowdown here.
Finally, retail sales in real terms continues
to climb upward and stands at a record
high $37 billion (Exhibit 4). This measure
includes sales at general merchandise and
apparel stores, hardware stores, furniture
and home furnishings stores, and motor
vehicle stores, among others. The data is
compiled from sales tax receipts reported
by the Arizona Department of Revenue. Overthe-year growth has receded to the 4-5%
range from the 7-8% surge of 1999, but
that’s comparable to the 1995-98 period and
significantly above 1991 recession readings.
There is some slowing evident, but it is still
stronger than 1996.
Each of the above measures for jobs,
incomes and sales clearly show that recession
is not the right word. Neither is “downturn.”
What we see is a slowing from very rapid
growth a year ago—and it is not much of
a slowing at all, just a return to the kind of
growth that characterized the latter half of
the decade of the 1990s. Although the situation
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

could deteriorate in coming months, these
data show that it is far too early to worry that
the economy has slowed too much.
The mountain states have registered the
strongest growth rates over the past few years
and they have continued to do well as other
parts of the country have slowed. One measure
where this is clearly visible is the Purchasing
Management Index. In January, the nationwide index fell to a reading of 41.2, the lowest
since early 1991. A number below 50 indicates that the industrial sector is contracting.
In Arizona, the index remains at a very strong
reading near 60 (Exhibit 5). Both curves
have been smoothed with a centered 4-period
moving average to reduce volatility.
Housing markets also have remained
stronger in the mountain region. Residential
building permits totaled nearly 60,000 units
statewide in 2000. Although down about five
percent from the prior year’s record, activity
remains at a high level. The same holds
true for resale housing. If housing markets
remain healthy, it will be difficult if not
impossible for a recession to develop.
Even as the drum beat continues to portray
recession, the economic climate in Arizona
is still quite good. Construction payrolls are
stable and manufacturing is growing. Consumer confidence and retail sales remain at
high levels. Incomes continue to move upward.
Some slowing is evident, but it is benign.
We expect slowing in other parts of the

country to modestly affect Arizona as the year
unfolds. After creating nearly 100,000 jobs
during 2000, the economy will generate
about 75,000 this year. In percentage terms,
job growth recedes from 4.6% to 3.2%.
Personal income growth slows from nearly
eight percent to 6.5%. New residential units
permitted settles near 50,000, down from
60,000. At this pace, the economy will compare roughly to the slowdown of 1995-96.
And those were pretty good years. ■
S P O N S O R S

Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee
Arizona Portland Cement Company
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One Arizona
CB Richard Ellis
City of Mesa
City of Tucson
Compass Bank
Elliott D. Pollack and Company
KB Home
Jim Click Automotive Team
Merrill Lynch
Northern Trust Bank of Arizona
Pima County
Qwest Communications
Qwest Dex
Salt River Project
Territorial Newspapers
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Healthcare Council
Tucson Newspapers
PA GE TH RE E

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F O R E C A S T

Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

T A B L E S

2000
130,721.9
7.9
26,339.3
5.1
54,635.0
9.5
4,963.0
2.6
88.1
2,260.7
4.6
383.4
1.9
157.0
2.1
216.4
2.4
1,877.2
5.2
537.7
4.7
722.1
6.5

2001
139,180.7
6.5
27,306.9
3.7
57,892.5
6.0
5,096.9
2.7
85.1
2,333.0
3.2
387.7
1.1
157.1
0.0
220.0
1.7
1,945.3
3.6
562.4
4.6
750.2
3.9

2002
147,363.6
5.9
28,227.0
3.4
60,461.5
4.4
5,220.7
2.4
79.1
2,397.6
2.8
385.8
-0.5
152.2
-3.1
222.9
1.3
2,011.8
3.4
588.9
4.7
778.1
3.7

2003
155,040.8
5.2
29,029.0
2.8
63,259.7
4.6
5,340.9
2.3
75.7
2,455.4
2.4
388.7
0.8
150.9
-0.8
227.0
1.8
2,066.7
2.7
606.4
3.0
803.5
3.3

2004
162,370.4
4.7
29,746.6
2.5
65,591.4
3.7
5,458.5
2.2
74.1
2,511.1
2.3
394.3
1.4
150.9
0.0
232.6
2.5
2,116.8
2.4
620.2
2.3
827.9
3.0

2005
169,102.3
4.1
30,330.4
2.0
67,799.7
3.4
5,575.3
2.1
72.8
2,563.0
2.1
400.1
1.5
152.9
1.3
236.4
1.7
2,162.9
2.2
629.5
1.5
852.3
3.0

2006
176,323.6
4.3
30,979.7
2.1
70,221.6
3.6
5,691.6
2.1
73.8
2,621.8
2.3
406.4
1.6
155.4
1.6
240.3
1.6
2,215.4
2.4
639.5
1.6
883.1
3.6

Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

2000
90,026.2
7.8
28,707.3
4.8
37,508.7
9.2
3,136.0
2.9
57.4
1,589.5
4.4
287.4
1.3
113.5
2.5
170.9
1.4
1,302.1
5.1
387.8
4.5
513.0
6.1

2001
95,726.3
6.3
29,672.7
3.4
39,736.5
5.9
3,226.1
2.9
57.8
1,641.1
3.2
288.1
0.3
112.2
-1.2
172.9
1.2
1,353.0
3.9
400.8
3.4
536.8
4.6

2002
101,155.0
5.7
30,554.7
3.0
41,546.5
4.6
3,310.6
2.6
52.2
1,684.1
2.6
287.4
-0.3
108.3
-3.5
176.1
1.8
1,396.7
3.2
414.3
3.4
556.2
3.6

2003
107,447.2
6.2
31,671.1
3.7
44,586.9
7.3
3,392.6
2.5
49.9
1,725.9
2.5
288.0
0.2
105.8
-2.3
179.2
1.7
1,437.9
2.9
427.2
3.1
572.9
3.0

2004
113,922.3
6.0
32,790.0
3.5
46,635.1
4.6
3,474.3
2.4
49.7
1,768.0
2.4
292.3
1.5
105.5
-0.3
183.7
2.5
1,475.8
2.6
436.0
2.1
590.7
3.1

2005
119,815.1
5.2
33,700.9
2.8
48,350.3
3.7
3,555.2
2.3
48.8
1,806.0
2.1
295.5
1.1
106.6
1.1
185.8
1.1
1,510.6
2.4
442.7
1.5
608.2
3.0

2006
126,477.5
5.6
34,781.2
3.2
50,685.8
4.8
3,636.4
2.3
49.0
1,848.7
2.4
298.7
1.1
108.7
2.0
186.9
0.6
1,550.0
2.6
450.0
1.7
628.8
3.4

Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

2000
21,114.3
8.9
24,381.4
6.3
8,554.6
8.9
866.0
2.4
15.3
358.5
5.7
58.3
6.6
22.2
3.6
34.3
9.4
300.3
5.5
75.8
5.8
119.7
6.4

2001
22,471.3
6.4
25,391.9
4.1
8,979.4
5.0
885.0
2.2
14.0
370.1
3.2
61.4
5.4
22.3
0.4
37.3
8.8
308.7
2.8
77.9
2.7
123.6
3.3

2002
23,782.3
5.8
26,379.6
3.9
9,379.5
4.5
901.5
1.9
11.4
379.5
2.6
63.2
2.9
22.0
-1.5
39.4
5.6
316.3
2.5
80.0
2.8
127.9
3.5

2003
25,074.4
5.4
27,322.5
3.6
9,841.9
4.9
917.7
1.8
10.9
386.5
1.8
63.5
0.5
21.9
-0.2
39.8
0.9
323.0
2.1
81.8
2.2
131.3
2.7

2004
26,396.3
5.3
28,254.4
3.4
10,273.3
4.4
934.2
1.8
11.2
393.0
1.7
64.2
1.1
22.2
1.4
40.1
0.9
328.8
1.8
82.9
1.3
134.6
2.5

2005
27,661.4
4.8
29,096.6
3.0
10,663.8
3.8
950.7
1.8
11.1
399.6
1.7
65.0
1.2
22.6
1.9
40.5
0.9
334.6
1.8
83.4
0.6
138.1
2.6

2006
29,038.0
5.0
30,008.3
3.1
11,116.7
4.2
967.7
1.8
11.5
407.4
1.9
65.9
1.2
23.1
2.1
40.8
0.9
341.5
2.1
84.3
1.1
142.6
3.2

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Karl Eller Graduate School of Management, Eller College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona

PA GE F OU R

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

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AVERAGE ANNUAL PAY, 1999

EXHIBIT 7
Average Annual Pay, 1999

By Heather Peterson
Research Specialist

A

ccording to data released at the end of 2000 by the U.S. Bureau of Economic
Analysis, average annual pay increased 4.3% nationwide during 1999.
Arizona nearly matched that increase with a 4.1% gain. The data include all workers
who are covered by state and federal unemployment insurance. Washington (up 8.0%),
Massachusetts (6.8%), California (6.3%), Colorado (6.0%) and Virginia (5.2%) were
the top five states (Exhibit 6).
Metro Tucson recorded the largest increase in average pay of Arizona’s metro
areas, with an increase of 5.3%. Phoenix-Mesa recorded a 4.0% gain—nearly equal
to the statewide gain—while Yuma and Flagstaff recorded gains of 2.4% and 1.7%,
respectively. Yuma has the second-lowest average pay ($20,363) among some 316
metro areas across the country (Exhibit 7). ■

EXHIBIT 6 Arizona Matches U.S. for Pay Gains
% Change in Average Annual Pay By State (US Average = 4.3%)

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

Average
Annual Pay
Western States
Washington
California
Colorado
Idaho
Oregon
Texas
U.S.
Arizona
Utah
Wyoming
Nevada
Montana
New Mexico
Arizona Metros
Phoenix
Tucson
Flagstaff
Yuma

% Change Rank

$ 35,736
37,564
34,192
26,042
30,867
32,895
33,313
30,523
27,884
25,639
31,213
23,253
26,270

8.0
6.3
6.0
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.1
3.8
3.7
3.3
2.7
2.2

32,430
28,194
23,814
20,363

4.0
5.3
1.7
2.4

1
3
4
8
11
15
18
24
29
39
44
49

PA G E F IV E

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HARVARD
ECONOMIST
EXAMINES
HOT TOPIC
By Stanley Reynolds, Head
Department of Economics
Eller College of Business and
Public Administration

FIGURE 1
US PER-PUPIL SPENDING
IN THE 20TH CENTURY

PA GE S IX

C

aroline M. Hoxby, Ph.D., presented the 2001 Fathauer Lecture in
Political Economy at the Eller College in January. Dr. Hoxby is the
Morris Kahn Associate Professor of Economics at Harvard University
and a leading researcher on education policy and the economics of education.
The title of her talk was, “School Choice: An Economist’s View.”
Dr. Hoxby began by asking why economists
are involved in this debate at all. Isn’t this a
debate that educators and people from schools
of education should be largely involved in?
Dr. Hoxby explained that economists can
make several important contributions to this
debate. She devoted most of her presentation
to an explanation of these contributions.
A key contribution of economists has been
to identify the crisis in American education
and the particular form that the crisis takes.
Dr. Hoxby argued that this crisis has motivated much of the school reform movement
in the United States. The crisis that exists
in American K-12 public schools today is
a productivity crisis.
Schools are not getting worse and worse,
as some would have you believe. The more
significant problem is that we as a society
have been spending more and more on public
education without receiving better results.
Figure 1 illustrates the problem. This
figure shows per-pupil spending in the

20th century, measured in constant dollars
(the dollar amounts in the graph have been
adjusted for the effects of inflation). Perpupil spending has risen 15-fold since 1920.
Between 1970 and the present, spending has
gone from approximately $4,000 per student
to $8,000 per student in the U.S., again
measured in constant dollars.
Figure 2 puts the spending figures for 1970
to the present together with math and reading
test scores over that period. While per-pupil
spending doubled over that period, achievement as measured by math and reading test
scores has been basically flat. This combination of rising spending and flat test scores
is what Dr. Hoxby called a productivity crisis.
Why does declining productivity matter?
Dr. Hoxby suggests two reasons. First,
Americans care about education and they
care about opportunities for their children.
The fact that they have been spending more
and more each year and not getting much
for the extra spending is a source of great

FIGURE 2
SPENDING AND ACHIEVEMENT
1970-2000

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

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FIGURE 3
NUMBER OF SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN THE US

FIGURE 5
ENROLLMENT IN CHARTER SCHOOLS

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

FIGURE 4
INDICATORS OF PUBLIC SCHOOL CONTROL

frustration for parents and legislators. Second,
as our economy becomes more of a knowledge-based economy, our economic success
depends more and more on the quality of
our education system. A nation’s competitive
advantage in today’s global economy is likely
to depend more on its human capital—i.e.,
the knowledge and skills embodied in its
people—and less on traditional factors like
natural resources.
Another contribution of economists is to
identify possible sources of the problems in
education. Dr. Hoxby suggests two important
sources of the productivity crisis: increasing
market power and teacher unionization.
The 20th century has seen a steady decline
in the number of school districts, mostly due
to consolidation of districts (Figure 3).
From 1950 to the present the number of
districts has been cut by 80%. The practical
importance of this is that when a district has
fewer local “competitors” for students—i.e.,
when a district has more market power—
the district has less need to compete with
neighboring districts for students.
Unionization may also matter. In 1960 there
were zero teachers in unions. By the year
2000 the majority of teachers belonged to
unions (Figure 4). Union agreements place
restrictions on how schools operate and can
limit the ability of schools to compete with
schools in neighboring districts.
Dr. Hoxby went on to discuss various proPAGE SEVEN

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Page 8

posed education reforms, such as vouchers
and charter schools, and explained the
evidence that exists regarding how these
reforms might work. Some of the main
points were as follows:
a) The evidence suggests that reducing
class size does tend to increase student
achievement. But the effects are quite small
relative to the amount of spending required.
b) By examining metropolitan areas
with differing numbers of school districts,
one can get a view of how the number
of competing districts relates to student
achievement. Metropolitan areas with
many districts, such as Boston, tend to
have higher achievement than metropolitan
areas with few districts, such as Miami.
c) As of yet, there is little direct evidence
on the impact of vouchers. Dr. Hoxby
suggests that indirect evidence of the effect
of vouchers can be found by examining
cities in which there are low-cost private
school options (say due to generous
private school endowments from alumni
contributions). In these cities, not only do
students in the private schools have higher
achievement, but students in the public
schools also have higher test scores and
a greater percentage going on to college,
compared to cities without low-cost private
school options. It seems that low-cost private
school options put more pressure on public
schools to deliver a good education.
d) The long-term effects of programs
such as vouchers and charter schools are
uncertain. Dr. Hoxby pointed out that
long term effects are complex and difficult
to predict, since they involve the way in
which students and their parents sort
themselves into different schools, and also
on how the schools might respond to this
sorting. She explained that the economic
concept of a market equilibrium provides
a useful way to conceptualize this kind
of problem.
As Figure 5 indicates, Arizona is a leader
in the charter school movement, second
only to Washington, D.C., and a great deal
is being learned about what works and
what doesn’t. At this point, the evidence is
compelling, as Dr. Hoxby states, that market
forces can have a significant effect on the
quality of education in both private and
public school—to the benefit of all. ■
PAGE EIGHT

2000

U.S. CENSUS
Resident Population and
Apportionment of the U.S.
House of Representatives

According to preliminary census counts
released in December 2000, Arizona’s
population stands at 5.1 million. The resident
population excludes the overseas population
(Exhibit 1).
Congressional apportionment for each state
is based upon (1) the resident population
and (2) the overseas U.S. military and federal
civilian employees (and their dependents
living with them) allocated to their home
state, as reported by the employing federal
agencies (Exhibit 2). That gives Arizona two
additional seats in the U.S. House of Representatives (Exhibit 3). ■

EXHIBIT 1
Arizona 1789-2000
Year

Resident
Population

Number of
Representatives

2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
1860
1850
1840
1830
1820
1810
1800
1790
1789

5,130,632
3,665,228
2,716,546
1,775,399
1,302,161
749,587
499,261
435,573
334,162
204,354
122,931
88,243
40,440
9,658
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–

8
6
5
4
3
2
2
1
1
1
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–

EXHIBIT 2
Arizona’s Resident Population, 1870-2000

EXHIBIT 3
Arizona’s Congressional Representation, 1910-2000

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

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ARIZONA’S
NEW ECONOMY INITIATIVES
By Marshall J. Vest
APNE Member

I

n November 1999, Arizona’s Governor, Jane Dee Hull, created a steering
committee to assess the New Economy (NE) and what Arizona needs to do
to ensure that it benefits from NE opportunities. The July and October 2000
issues of Arizona’s Economy carried updates on the process.

Get the basics right and nurture Arizona’s
knowledge economy. That’s the thrust of a new
report detailing the findings of the yearlong
study of Governor Hull’s Arizona Partnership
for a New Economy (APNE) Task Force. The
“basics” include the state’s telecommunications
infrastructure and education (K-12 as well
as higher education)—issues of access and
ability. These ideas are basic if Arizona is to
benefit from the flood of information unleashed
in the New (i.e., Information) Economy.
Nurturing the knowledge economy goes
beyond the basics. Here the focus shifts to
research and development (R&D), and what
is involved to bring ideas to the marketplace—
issues such as entrepreneurship, availability
of capital, incubation, and technology transfer.
The Information Revolution is fundamentally changing how business is conducted.
It also affects each of us in our daily lives. We
live in a knowledge and idea-based economy
where the keys to wealth are the extent to
which ideas, innovation and technology
are embedded throughout society. By getting
the basics right, Arizona can ensure that no
one is left behind. And by applying visionary
thinking and putting into action a number of
“breakthrough” ideas, Arizona can truly be
a New Economy hot spot.
Specific recommendations include the
following:
★ Develop Arizona Learning Online (AZLO)
portal, which would aggregate E-learning
(distance learning) course offerings from
around the world, provide a resource for
teachers to access best practices of how to

incorporate technology into the classroom,
and provide companies a vehicle for
ongoing employee education and training.
★ Develop a strategic plan for telecom
infrastructure.
★ Assist communities in assessing their
telecom needs.
★ Develop technology-training centers
for small businesses and individuals.
★ Improve the tech-transfer process.
★ Provide pre-seed capital for new startups
and commercial incubation space.
★ Provide public-source venture capital
money.
★ Create Arizona@Your Service, a portal
that provides access to services of all
levels of state and local government.
★ Establish an E-Government Council
and E-Government Institute, which
would provide technical assistance to
local governments related to utilization
of technology.
★ Establish a Creative Communities
Consortium to share best practices focused
on environmental amenities and quality
of life issues.
★ Provide funds to market Arizona
as a New Economy state.
★ Establish the “Arizona Economic
Organization” to oversee implementation
of the recommendations, while supporting
cluster and foundation organizations. ■

The Steering Committee’s final report is available online at:
www.azcommerce.com/neweconomy/APNEreportmediakit.htm

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

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U N I V E R S I T Y

O F

Page 10

A R I Z O N A

EXECUTIVE OF
THE YEAR

2001
ROBERT A. ECKERT

Please join the Eller College
of Business and Public
Administration in honoring
Robert A. Eckert,
the University of Arizona 2001
Executive of the Year. Eckert is the
Chairman of the Board and Chief
Executive Officer of Mattel, Inc.,
and the first Eller College alumnus
to receive this prestigious award.
A 1976 graduate of the University
of Arizona, Eckert has been credited
with getting Mattel’s finances back
on track in the short time since he
came on board there in May of
2000. Prior to Mattel, Eckert was
president and CEO of Kraft Foods,
the largest U.S.-based packaged food
company in the world.
Monday, April 23, 2001, 12:30 p.m.
Doubletree Hotel
445 S. Alvernon Way
Tucson, Arizona 85711
Individual seats $50.00 per person;
Tables of ten, $500.00 per table
For reservations or information,
call Mary Hanson, (520) 621-9954
email: mhanson@bpa.arizona.edu

PAGE TEN

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

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A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining (Mohave County only)
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

SEP
2000

OCT
2000

NOV
2000

DEC
2000

JAN
2001

68,750
45,125
23,625
34.4

65,925
47,150
18,775
28.5

66,125
51,275
14,850
22.5

66,100
53,675
12,425
18.8

63,225
52,775
10,450
16.5

6.3
6.6
4.8
-1.4

-1.0
1.9
-8.0
-6.5

39,375
2,850
2,225
1,475
10,350
1,250
9,525
11,700

40,200
2,900
2,225
1,525
10,775
1,375
9,425
11,975

41,750
2,900
2,225
1,650
11,500
1,425
9,950
12,100

43,900
2,850
2,275
1,750
13,100
1,425
10,425
12,075

42,425
2,750
2,200
1,675
12,575
1,425
10,275
11,525

4.4
3.8
2.3
4.7
-0.4
3.6
6.2
9.0

4.9
-0.8
1.5
1.2
1.7
11.7
7.8
7.8

78,382
61,579
7,441
9,362
6,156
14,342

86,852
68,282
8,905
9,665
6,253
17,915

99,024
77,632
9,759
11,633
7,409
26,440

120,422
97,439
10,977
12,006
7,816
20,410

...
...
...
...
...
...

-9.2
-11.9
11.4
-1.2
-15.3
26.7

5.1
3.2
4.2
19.9
-4.5
8.6

9,583
5,636
180
3,767

20,226
17,627
2,105
494

7,947
6,083
1,864
0

7,207
5,146
1,279
782

8,505
5,773
1,340
1,392

-28.6
-33.2
-54.0
288.8

-24.2
0.1
-49.0
-42.6

64
64

96
96

74
74

61
61

68
68

-15.0
-15.0

-1.6
-0.9

71,200
68,275
2,925
4.1

71,525
68,700
2,825
3.9

72,475
69,600
2,875
4.0

72,650
69,525
3,125
4.3

72,650
69,075
3,575
4.9

4.8
5.0
2.1
-2.6

1.6
2.0
-5.9
-7.4

47,900
100
3,800
3,675
2,350
14,325
1,450
12,325
9,875

48,300
100
3,875
3,700
2,375
14,325
1,450
12,450
10,025

48,525
100
3,925
3,700
2,400
14,450
1,425
12,450
10,075

48,425
100
3,975
3,725
2,400
14,400
1,425
12,525
9,875

48,150
100
3,900
3,750
2,375
14,050
1,325
12,800
9,850

7.5
0
12.2
5.6
8.0
3.5
-8.6
12.3
9.1

7.7
-2.0
9.1
-1.0
7.2
6.2
-0.6
11.2
10.4

100,398
74,620
11,647
14,131
9,292
34,187

105,573
75,971
12,911
16,691
10,799
24,275

108,934
80,082
13,364
15,488
9,864
20,356

124,687
96,447
12,255
15,985
10,406
24,348

...
...
...
...
...
...

2.8
1.9
-1.2
12.4
-3.6
-23.8

11.3
8.8
2.9
34.8
7.3
14.4

19,233
14,433
2,776
2,024

39,825
14,811
4,440
20,574

75,732
15,277
15,203
45,252

18,848
14,533
1,280
3,035

14,445
11,995
1,231
1,219

-14.8
6.9
35.4
-74.7

-5.5
-3.5
-2.8
-10.5

141
141

145
143

140
138

149
145

121
119

0.8
0.8

-8.3
-6.6

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

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A R I Z O N A

COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

SEP
2000

OCT
2000

NOV
2000

DEC
2000

JAN
2001

39,775
38,100
1,675
4.2

39,850
38,200
1,650
4.1

40,225
38,550
1,675
4.2

40,350
38,600
1,750
4.3

40,250
38,250
2,000
5.0

3.0
3.5
-5.9
-8.6

-0.6
0.6
-20.6
-20.1

32,725
1,950
1,275
1,275
7,700
750
8,300
11,475

32,675
1,925
1,225
1,275
7,725
775
8,275
11,475

32,500
1,875
1,025
1,275
7,725
775
8,325
11,500

32,600
1,850
1,025
1,325
7,800
775
8,325
11,500

31,950
1,850
1,000
1,275
7,650
750
8,125
11,300

3.0
-1.3
0.0
4.1
2.3
3.4
0.0
6.6

4.1
-10.4
4.5
4.6
3.9
8.1
4.4
6.6

55,685
43,284
6,664
5,737
3,772
11,336

55,764
42,431
6,807
6,526
4,222
15,421

59,965
47,351
6,151
6,463
4,116
10,887

75,636
61,678
7,301
6,657
4,334
11,222

...
...
...
...
...
...

35.4
45.0
2.7
7.6
-7.7
-32.1

7.2
11.6
6.6
-15.3
-33.1
0.4

5,183
3,975
50
1,158

10,224
4,446
0
5,778

5,742
4,992
750
0

4,267
3,637
0
630

17,284
3,949
7,500
5,835

142.4
-5.6
234.8
727.7

-11.3
-1.1
20.6
-45.1

44
44

49
49

54
54

38
38

46
46

-8.0
-8.0

7.5
-5.8

14,375
11,175
3,200
22.3

14,250
11,425
2,825
19.8

13,750
12,100
1,650
12.0

13,875
12,400
1,475
10.6

13,675
12,500
1,175
8.6

4.4
6.4
-13.0
-16.6

-1.0
2.6
-19.2
-18.6

11,975
400
1,000
1,125
3,825
225
1,825
3,575

12,150
400
1,025
1,175
3,900
225
1,850
3,575

12,675
400
1,000
1,275
4,250
225
1,900
3,625

13,025
400
1,050
1,375
4,400
225
1,925
3,650

13,000
400
1,050
1,325
4,425
225
1,950
3,625

5.9
6.7
10.5
15.2
-6.8
0.0
9.9
18.9

6.2
6.2
9.8
1.2
-1.1
3.8
12.3
14.9

23,780
18,268
2,577
2,935
1,930
4,144

25,442
20,360
2,269
2,813
1,820
2,911

29,774
23,609
2,955
3,210
2,045
4,563

37,702
31,198
3,109
3,395
2,210
4,190

...
...
...
...
...
...

18.0
19.1
5.7
20.5
3.4
-1.4

11.4
12.5
5.2
9.8
-12.8
-17.5

3,603
2,518
575
510

7,194
7,021
100
73

2,307
1,907
400
0

4,808
1,938
150
2,720

4,397
2,447
1,950
0

6.3
-23.2
105.3
...

29.5
45.4
14.1
-22.3

28
28

125
17

20
20

20
20

20
20

-4.8
5.3

97.8
-2.5

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TWELVE

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A R I Z O N A

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining (Greenlee County only)
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

SEP
2000

OCT
2000

NOV
2000

DEC
2000

JAN
2001

17,125
16,175
950
5.5

17,075
16,150
925
5.4

17,300
16,325
975
5.6

17,275
16,250
1,025
5.9

17,000
15,925
1,075
6.3

-1.4
-1.4
-2.3
-0.8

-4.1
-2.9
-20.6
-17.2

14,200
700
1,075
1,075
500
3,300
300
2,550
4,700

14,225
675
1,075
1,100
475
3,325
300
2,550
4,725

14,275
675
1,125
1,100
475
3,350
300
2,550
4,700

14,325
700
1,150
1,125
475
3,300
300
2,525
4,750

13,825
675
1,050
1,100
450
3,125
275
2,475
4,675

-1.4
-3.6
10.5
2.3
-10.0
-5.3
0.0
-2.0
-0.5

0.7
-1.5
9.5
-1.7
-2.0
-1.1
19.3
-0.5
1.1

25,593
18,530
3,603
3,460
2,275
8,149

23,927
17,236
3,449
3,242
2,098
9,297

24,592
18,310
3,151
3,131
1,994
8,669

31,231
22,839
3,581
4,811
3,132
7,443

...
...
...
...
...
...

12.0
5.1
11.9
61.7
38.7
-11.3

3.5
3.0
3.1
6.8
-14.4
18.1

5,697
3,401
282
2,014

2,885
2,792
0
93

9,443
3,527
2,598
3,318

2,770
2,770
0
0

5,577
2,856
2,721
0

-23.0
-29.3
1,829.8
-100.0

9.4
-11.0
-33.4
80.8

25
25

19
19

29
29

17
17

22
22

-29.0
-29.0

-9.2
-7.4

14,200
13,325
875
6.2

14,400
13,550
850
5.9

14,600
13,850
750
5.1

14,725
13,975
750
5.1

14,675
13,750
925
6.3

0.3
1.7
-15.9
-16.2

-3.4
-1.1
-28.2
-25.7

11,325
2,425
950
300
200
2,375
175
1,750
3,150

11,375
2,400
900
300
200
2,375
175
1,775
3,250

11,275
2,425
850
300
200
2,375
175
1,725
3,225

11,325
2,400
850
300
200
2,425
175
1,725
3,250

11,050
2,400
875
275
200
2,325
175
1,725
3,075

0.0
-5.9
40.0
0.0
-11.1
4.5
16.7
-5.5
-3.1

2.1
-5.3
46.8
6.1
-12.7
2.2
9.1
-0.4
1.6

23,152
19,757
1,717
1,678
1,103
2,730

19,982
16,275
1,711
1,996
1,292
3,008

19,498
15,943
1,585
1,970
1,254
2,449

24,789
21,175
1,691
1,923
1,252
2,851

...
...
...
...
...
...

11.9
13.5
1.8
5.1
-9.9
-30.8

9.7
10.4
-0.2
13.9
-9.0
-17.0

2,158
658
1,500
5,512

908
681
227
272

791
791
0
11,538

994
994
0
0

1,267
571
696
500

122.7
0.4
...
...

-39.4
2.6
-60.4
109.3

8
8

8
8

9
9

7
7

8
8

33.3
33.3

-33.8
3.0

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PAGE THIRTEEN

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Page 14

A R I Z O N A

APACHE-NAVAJO REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

SEP
2000

OCT
2000

NOV
2000

DEC
2000

JAN
2001

50,350
45,200
5,150
10.2

50,150
45,100
5,050
10.1

50,500
45,150
5,350
10.6

50,900
45,075
5,825
11.4

51,200
44,200
7,000
13.7

0.3
0.0
2.2
1.9

-5.0
-3.6
-14.1
-9.5

46,750
900
2,175
1,200
2,525
8,575
1,400
7,900
22,075

46,625
900
2,225
1,175
2,550
8,475
1,400
7,825
22,075

46,325
875
2,175
1,175
2,525
8,450
1,400
7,600
22,125

46,325
850
2,150
1,150
2,525
8,375
1,425
7,450
22,400

45,100
850
2,075
1,125
2,525
7,975
1,375
7,275
21,900

0.1
-2.9
6.4
-4.3
1.0
5.3
-1.8
-2.7
-1.0

-0.4
-0.7
0.3
-9.8
1.3
5.9
8.6
-0.7
-2.7

72,248
54,463
6,569
11,216
7,375
24,255

65,339
48,451
5,969
10,919
7,065
15,589

61,895
47,295
4,832
9,768
6,221
13,498

73,819
58,962
5,476
9,381
6,107
14,054

...
...
...
...
...
...

-19.1
-22.5
15.1
-9.9
-22.7
1.1

3.2
0.4
6.8
17.8
-5.0
20.0

13,944
8,733
175
5,036

40,520
8,171
21,947
10,402

10,034
8,784
0
1,250

12,533
5,368
6,920
245

5,901
5,901
0
0

-54.9
-51.1
-100.0
-100.0

-25.3
-8.2
-65.6
41.4

62
62

71
71

74
74

44
33

45
45

-55.0
-55.0

-20.4
-14.8

131,100
126,475
4,625
3.5

132,375
127,825
4,550
3.4

131,925
126,850
5,075
3.8

131,575
126,200
5,375
4.1

130,100
123,900
6,200
4.8

5.3
5.8
-4.2
-9.0

1.9
2.7
-14.7
-16.3

111,175
1,175
8,375
6,000
2,950
27,550
3,075
31,975
30,075

112,500
1,200
8,550
5,975
3,000
27,725
3,075
32,450
30,525

111,575
1,200
8,525
5,950
2,900
27,525
3,025
32,225
30,225

111,200
1,200
8,525
5,950
2,925
27,350
3,075
32,575
29,600

108,075
1,125
8,275
5,825
2,725
26,250
3,025
31,600
29,250

6.1
15.4
15.3
0.4
2.8
3.4
2.5
11.2
2.7

6.7
16.3
14.6
0.6
1.2
3.0
10.7
8.7
7.3

218,067
151,978
39,269
26,820
17,636
59,103

214,803
148,079
38,241
28,483
18,428
54,630

197,861
142,459
28,960
26,442
16,840
50,787

231,534
178,260
31,173
22,101
14,388
50,712

...
...
...
...
...
...

1.4
0.2
4.3
7.0
-8.3
-24.9

7.6
6.1
2.3
28.0
2.6
1.7

39,178
28,997
6,053
4,128

43,175
33,366
4,509
5,300

43,187
26,319
16,400
468

31,576
23,579
4,122
3,875

35,357
24,870
4,003
6,484

-45.7
-20.9
-56.4
-73.5

-9.7
-5.5
-8.6
-22.7

205
187

227
223

194
174

181
153

169
169

-44.6
-11.1

-17.7
0.1

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PA GE F OU R TEE N

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

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11:17 AM

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A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

SEP
2000

OCT
2000

NOV
2000

DEC
2000

JAN
2001

1,580.4
1,535.8
44.6
2.6

1,590.0
1,547.7
42.3
2.6

1,598.3
1,558.8
39.5
2.5

1,605.7
1,567.2
38.5
2.5

1,592.7
1,550.2
42.5
2.7

3.5
3.7
-5.1
-6.9

-0.2
0.1
-12.5
-11.8

1,597.9
2.6
122.6
166.1
128.8
37.3
84.6
372.8
90.7
282.1
121.1
525.5
202.6

1,610.7
2.6
123.2
166.0
129.0
37.0
85.7
375.6
91.3
284.3
122.2
528.5
206.9

1,621.7
2.6
122.1
166.3
129.4
36.9
86.1
384.6
91.8
292.8
122.3
530.8
206.9

1,631.2
2.6
121.8
166.9
130.0
36.9
86.5
388.7
92.1
296.6
123.1
533.2
208.4

1,592.5
2.6
120.7
166.4
129.9
36.5
84.6
376.0
91.4
284.6
122.0
520.4
199.8

3.8
8.3
6.9
1.9
3.3
-2.7
3.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
3.3
5.1
3.9

3.8
-33.0
5.1
0.7
1.2
-1.1
4.8
3.0
2.2
3.2
2.5
5.5
3.7

3,067,124
2,184,045
366,787
342,225
174,067
688,178

3,038,793
2,113,244
380,628
359,945
184,976
642,859

3,146,263
2,210,092
387,111
356,043
193,017
620,270

3,807,122
2,839,963
389,900
387,465
189,794
703,151

...
...
...
...
...
...

5.1
4.0
3.6
8.6
18.6
1.2

8.6
8.3
4.7
8.4
23.1
3.4

747,925
493,594
191,110
63,221

834,819
497,927
229,523
107,369

637,137
431,645
169,769
35,723

651,616
353,756
278,574
19,286

844,927
462,964
375,796
6,167

28.9
13.6
93.0
-88.4

5.6
-0.9
29.6
-16.3

4,077
2,853
50
1,174

3,373
2,517
68
788

3,070
2,092
67
911

2,559
2,186
34
339

2,837
2,606
57
174

-9.4
6.5
42.5
-73.0

-5.4
-10.0
81.0
9.7

787,771
4,591
171,590

754,360
4,461
169,101

703,298
4,144
169,715

790,574
4,539
174,174

598,469
3,442
173,872

15.1
8.7
5.9

9.8
0.9
8.6

2,520,958
52,443

2,949,748
53,514

3,002,648
52,124

3,000,795
53,695

...
...

5.5
8.9

7.0
13.5

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

IV
1999

I
2000

II
2000

III
2000

IV
2000

3,080.4
7.6
13.4
5.9
14.8

3,102.7
7.7
13.5
5.9
14.6

3,124.9
7.8
13.6
5.9
14.4

3,147.1
7.9
13.7
5.9
14.3

3,147.1
8.0
13.8
5.9
-8.0

2.2
5.2
3.0
0.3
-153.8

2.7
5.4
3.2
0.5
-43.0

85,861
64,652
4,073
-113
15,751
9,644
27,873

87,576
66,002
4,154
-112
16,023
9,818
28,226

89,210
67,302
4,233
-112
16,259
9,993
28,548

90,843
68,603
4,312
-111
16,495
10,168
28,866

92,476
69,903
4,390
-111
16,731
10,343
29,385

7.7
8.1
7.8
1.8
6.2
7.2
5.4

7.8
8.3
8.0
2.0
6.1
7.5
4.9

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PA GE F IF T EEN

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A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

JAN
2001

SEP
2000

OCT
2000

NOV
2000

DEC
2000

383.4
372.6
10.8
2.6

386.0
375.5
10.5
2.6

388.2
378.2
10.0
2.6

390.6
380.5
10.1
2.6

387.6
376.1
11.5
3.0

0.6
1.1
-13.5
-11.8

-0.4
-0.0
-12.4
-10.8

349.2
1.9
22.0
33.5
28.2
5.3
12.0
71.5
10.8
60.7
13.7
118.6
76.0

352.3
1.9
21.9
33.6
28.3
5.3
11.9
72.4
10.9
61.5
13.8
118.9
77.9

355.6
1.9
21.7
33.7
28.4
5.3
12.1
74.2
11.0
63.2
13.9
119.2
78.9

357.9
1.9
21.8
33.6
28.3
5.3
12.3
75.1
11.1
64.0
14.0
120.1
79.1

349.3
1.9
21.4
33.1
28.0
5.1
11.8
73.1
10.9
62.2
13.2
118.8
76.0

1.2
0.0
-0.9
2.8
4.5
-5.6
-0.8
2.0
0.9
2.1
-7.0
1.8
1.6

3.6
-0.9
0.7
7.2
10.1
-5.7
-0.2
2.1
1.6
2.2
-0.2
4.8
4.2

682,927
464,415
91,091
79,184
48,236
123,128

691,861
465,485
94,529
80,095
51,752
130,690

732,709
510,011
96,139
74,685
51,875
120,150

873,594
635,003
96,831
88,509
53,251
125,913

...
...
...
...
...
...

3.9
2.7
5.3
6.8
11.4
-8.4

8.3
7.5
6.4
5.7
25.7
6.2

128,745
84,391
38,996
5,358

158,268
83,365
34,514
40,389

141,505
76,782
46,283
18,440

103,543
83,818
15,905
3,820

124,479
87,257
33,024
4,198

-14.0
2.3
-9.2
-81.9

-6.2
-3.8
-12.5
-5.1

637
596
41

529
480
48

416
393
23

479
444
35

567
555
12

14.1
19.4
-62.5

-3.7
-2.4
-8.7

135,891
872
155,838

123,680
820
150,829

137,608
848
162,274

120,288
741
162,333

...
...
...

0.4
-6.9
7.8

4.4
-1.5
6.1

257,921
22,393

319,895
21,762

331,232
21,297

310,013
17,608

308,188
21,920

13.4
-9.8

3.6
-11.1

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

IV
2000

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

IV
1999

I
2000

II
2000

III
2000

853.2
1.2
3.0
1.8
4.0

858.4
1.2
3.0
1.8
3.9

863.4
1.2
3.0
1.8
3.9

868.5
1.2
3.0
1.8
3.8

868.5
1.2
3.1
1.8
-1.2

1.8
4.2
3.8
3.5
-131.2

2.3
4.3
3.8
3.4
-35.4

20,035
12,607
746
196
4,946
3,031
23,481

20,470
12,911
763
203
5,041
3,078
23,848

20,900
13,208
781
209
5,136
3,127
24,205

21,329
13,505
799
216
5,231
3,175
24,558

21,758
13,802
816
222
5,326
3,224
25,052

8.6
9.5
9.5
13.3
7.7
6.4
6.7

8.9
9.8
9.8
14.2
7.9
6.6
6.4

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PA GE S IX TE EN

A RI ZO NA ’S EC ONO M Y

AZEC4/01.FFf

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11:17 AM

Page 17

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Transportation
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
Schools
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s)
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

SEP
2000

OCT
2000

NOV
2000

DEC
2000

JAN
2001

2,370.5
2,272.1
98.4
3.7

2,381.6
2,291.4
90.2
3.8

2,393.3
2,310.7
82.6
3.7

2,403.8
2,323.4
80.4
3.7

2,383.0
2,296.6
86.4
3.9

3.1
3.4
-4.5
-7.1

-0.3
0.3
-12.3
-12.0

2,266.3
9.9
166.3
216.7
168.5
48.2
109.4
71.8
523.7
111.4
412.3
143.6
723.6
373.1
46.4
326.7
177.8
40.4

2,283.7
9.8
167.0
216.4
168.6
47.8
110.4
73.0
527.9
112.1
415.8
145.1
726.9
380.2
46.3
333.9
184.3
40.7

2,298.7
9.7
165.8
216.7
169.1
47.6
111.0
73.8
539.4
112.9
426.5
145.4
729.6
381.1
46.1
335.0
186.1
40.6

2,312.7
9.7
165.7
217.2
169.6
47.6
112.0
74.8
545.9
114.9
431.0
146.2
733.4
382.6
47.3
335.3
185.9
40.7

2,258.4
9.6
163.6
216.1
169.2
46.9
109.3
71.8
528.4
113.6
414.8
144.2
718.2
369.0
46.2
322.8
173.3
40.2

3.4
0.0
6.4
2.2
3.6
-2.5
3.1
4.4
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.2
4.7
2.9
-0.2
3.4
3.6
-1.0

3.9
-12.0
4.8
1.6
2.6
-1.6
4.0
4.4
3.0
2.1
3.2
2.7
5.6
3.5
2.8
3.6
4.4
-0.0

15.36
12.76
19.99
11.37
14.25

15.47
12.69
19.83
11.23
14.60

15.50
12.72
20.13
11.07
14.47

15.81
12.89
20.09
11.05
14.90

16.04
12.85
20.56
11.19
14.50

12.6
0.3
13.8
-2.4
3.6

6.7
0.5
9.4
-1.5
5.3

4,552,242
3,090,939
563,766
599,896
297,641
195,714
563,260
236,055
42,330
292,092
969,552
50,762
135,935

4,438,218
3,015,814
585,039
520,302
317,063
205,139
524,652
230,460
46,843
303,831
916,595
40,314
171,111

4,592,269
3,172,784
595,004
501,485
322,996
205,704
397,837
253,277
64,743
282,633
878,069
14,662
144,307

5,513,097
4,042,964
599,291
551,537
319,305
207,868
425,723
265,128
62,006
308,833
964,294
35,219
126,462

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

4.7
3.2
7.0
7.8
14.4
-1.9
7.7
36.9
6.0
6.8
-3.1
-23.1
9.6

8.9
7.8
8.1
8.9
22.6
-2.5
8.5
19.1
2.2
7.9
4.1
-47.1
7.4

980,761
646,336
241,697
92,728

1,158,316
670,207
297,365
190,744

945,363
576,107
253,267
115,989

838,162
495,539
308,230
34,393

1,062,639
608,583
428,261
25,795

14.7
7.1
73.0
-76.7

1.7
-1.5
15.8
-12.5

5,259
4,005
75
1,179

4,488
3,593
88
807

3,949
2,948
77
924

3,442
3,031
67
344

3,758
3,504
75
179

-7.4
4.8
25.0
-72.7

-5.3
-7.7
27.1
3.3

1,683
1,368
23
292

1,746
1,467
25
253

1,635
1,263
18
354

1,592
1,262
36
294

...
...
...
...

-5.7
-6.3
89.5
-8.7

-7.0
-6.6
1.0
-9.5

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PAGE SE VEN T EEN

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A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income
Proprietor's Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

I N D I C A T O R S

IV
1999

I
2000

II
2000

III
2000

IV
2000

4,884.5
10.1
20.0
10.0
20.9

4,916.0
10.6
20.2
9.7
21.4

4,947.5
11.4
21.1
9.7
19.6

4,980.2
10.7
20.6
9.9
23.7

5,014.4
10.7
20.7
10.0
23.3

2.7
6.4
3.5
0.5
11.4

2.7
5.8
3.2
0.5
-2.2

125,540
89,466
5,532
423
24,910
16,273

127,104
90,894
5,642
428
24,989
16,436

129,917
93,026
5,750
435
25,409
16,797

131,945
94,667
5,833
441
25,673
16,997

133,921
96,092
5,905
446
25,951
17,336

6.7
7.4
6.7
5.6
4.2
6.5

7.9
8.8
8.1
6.6
6.2
5.6

71,052
7,317
9,431
505
8,926
25,702
31,903

74,202
7,513
9,528
395
9,132
25,855
32,968

74,275
7,567
9,904
484
9,420
26,259
32,628

75,582
7,680
9,983
499
9,484
26,494
32,838

...
...
...
...
...
26,707
...

8.0
5.9
9.2
22.0
8.6
3.9
3.9

8.6
5.9
9.0
-0.8
9.6
5.1
4.3

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA
SEP
2000
Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles

OCT
2000

NOV
2000

DEC
2000

JAN
2001

Sources and abbreviations:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department
of Commerce

PAGE EIGHTEEN

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

1,856,562
158,946
621,770
1,075,846
150,079
26,930
90,898
32,251

1,677,144
156,516
504,872
1,015,756
185,498
32,599
129,469
23,430

1,078,312
96,353
286,089
695,870
228,881
40,797
171,741
16,343

834,667
79,275
265,889
489,503
208,456
42,603
152,561
13,292

869,277
72,002
224,521
572,754
277,590
57,172
197,990
22,428

1.7
-7.1
-6.2
6.4
-9.8
6.2
-12.4
-19.6

-2.5
-6.1
-3.6
-1.3
2.6
-4.6
6.9
-6.0

792,851
2,199,928
880,523

791,869
2,098,382
914,920

763,033
2,274,418
...

839,157
2,449,476
...

720,638
1,995,068
...

-4.1
-1.1
4.0

1.2
5.6
2.5

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA

Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

SEP
2000

OCT
2000

NOV
2000

DEC
2000

173.7
170.4

174.0
170.6

174.1
170.9

174.0
170.7

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department
of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems
Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission)
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior
PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport

JAN
2001
175.1
171.7

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
3.7
3.7

3.5
3.5

SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service,
U.S. Department of Justice
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department
of the Treasury

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

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A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA

Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1992=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

IV
2000

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

IV
1999

I
2000

II
2000

III
2000

170.5
168.3
165.1

173.5
169.9
166.7

174.3
171.7
168.5

176.6
173.1
169.7

...
174.0
170.7

3.9
3.4
3.4

3.5
3.4
3.5

105.3
105.7

106.2
106.6

106.8
107.1

107.2
107.6

107.6
108.2

2.2
2.4

2.1
2.4

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

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