J U L Y

2 0 0 0

S U M M E R

By Marshall J. Vest
Director, Economic and Business Research
Member of the Governor’s Arizona Partnership for the New Economy Task Force

NEW ECONOMY

TAKES CENTER STAGE
The New Economy is alive and well.
But, what exactly, is the New Economy?
A new study commissioned by Governor
Hull’s Arizona Partnership for a New
Economy (APNE) Task Force addresses
that question as well as what Arizona
needs to do to be a player.

W

hat is the New Economy, anyway?
There are as many definitions as
flying ants after a summer rainstorm.
Some definitions are characteristics of the
New Economy—fast, agile, vanishing geographic boundaries. It is about technology,
globalism, knowledge, competition, alliances,
people and places. We are creating a new
language and a slew of acronyms. But what
does all this mean? What is “new”? And what
can we do to ensure that Arizona participates
in this New Economy?
In the simplest of terms, the New Economy
is all about how knowledge and information
are affecting our lives. For businesses, it means
using information technologies to better
manage relationships with customers and
suppliers. This has led to entirely new
business models—new ways of conducting
business. For many companies, it means
figuring out what you are good at—where
you have a competitive advantage—and
exploiting that advantage as long as it lasts.
In today’s high-paced information-charged
world, that may not be long, which explains
why many companies are continually tearing
down and rebuilding, or creating subsidiaries
that directly compete with the parent business.
For consumers, better information means
a wider selection of products at lower prices

—and changes in lifestyle. One only needs
to consider the cellular phone or the Internet
to appreciate how information has changed
the way we work and live our lives.
The New Economy is pervasive. It is clearly
about much more than just e-commerce (the
buying and selling of goods and services from
a web store). Every business is affected—not
just “dot coms” or high tech firms, but every
company, including “old economy businesses.”
According to Michael Porter of the Harvard
Business School, “Today there is no such
thing as a low-tech industry. There are only
low-tech companies—that is, companies
that fail to use world-class technology and
practices to enhance productivity and innovation.” The New Economy pertains not just
to high tech, but to every business. We still
manufacture widgets and provide services,
but the relationship between and among businesses is new. Some refer to this as e-business
or business-to-business (B2B), which is
a whole order of magnitude larger than
e-commerce or business-to-consumers (B2C).

ELLER COLLE GE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

I S S U E

There are, however, entirely new industries
that have emerged, such as Internet service
providers, web designers, “infomediaries”
such as eBay and FreeMarkets.com that provide online auctions, and a cadre of application service providers (ASPs) that provide
software solutions for managing a company’s
information technology (IT) requirements.
The Internet is the enabling technology that
has driven the cost of information toward zero,
thereby turning information into a commodity
and making it widely available. As the cost of
computers continues to fall— now only a few
hundred dollars—households of even modest
incomes can have access to technology, which
puts a plethora of information at everyone’s
disposal. The challenge in combating a growing “digital divide” is to ensure that everyone
knows how to use the technology/information.
The implications for public education, workforce development, job training and higher
education are obvious. For Arizona to be
a player, education/knowledge/ skills (i.e.
human capital) must become the top priority.
How should economic development efforts
be modified to embrace the New Economy?
What state policies are needed to ensure that
Arizona can compete? These are the questions
being addressed by Governor Hull’s Arizona
Partnership for a New Economy (APNE) task
force. Collaborative Economics, a Californiabasedconsultant, has been retained to conduct
a study that will conclude by year-end. Wide
participation is encouraged, and you can
get involved using the Internet by accessing
http://www.azcommerce.com/newecono
my/New_Economy_Partnership.htm. ■

I N S I D E
BEANIE BABY BILLIONS? .......2
FORECAST UPDATE ...............3
FORECAST TABLES ................4
ARIZONA
ECONOMIC INDICATORS ........7

BEANIE
BABY
BILLIONS?

$

$

INTERNET AUCTIONS
ENABLE INCOME
TAX EVASION
Until the explosion in Internet auctions,
probable income tax evasion on private transactions was limited to the relatively minor
market of garage sales and swap meets.
However, it seems as if everyone knows
someone making money on eBay and other
Internet auction sites. Currently, reporting a
net gain is the individual seller’s responsibility
—the auction sites are not responsible for
any income tax owed by the sellers. In fact,
an eBay disclaimer recommends that sellers
consult their tax advisors.
Assuming that these sellers do not report
any tax on the gains, Lillian Mills, Ph.D.,
assistant professor of accounting at the Eller
College of Business and Public Administration
at the University of Arizona, conservatively
estimates this unreported tax at more than
$100 million on an annualized basis. Professor
Mills became curious about Internet income
tax evasion because it has received little attention in the Internet tax debate. Most popular
press and research articles on Internet
taxation focus only on the sales and use tax.
“Beanie Baby Billions?: Unpaid Tax on
Internet Auctions,” by Susan Albring, Lillian
Mills and Marlene Plumlee, appears in the
May 22 issue of Tax Notes. Susan Albring is
a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Arizona
and Marlene Plumlee, Ph.D. is an assistant
professor at the University of Utah. All three
researchers have prior tax compliance
experience as certified public accountants.
The authors estimate the gain on auction
sales of collectibles and the related tax. eBay
PAGE TWO

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STUDY NOTES THAT

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provides a rolling 30-day auction history.
This allows anyone to observe private transactions that were previously hidden in the
underground economy. The authors sampled
completed auctions for a variety of categories, including plush toys (Beanies), coins,
stamps, trading cards and others. From these
completed auctions, they estimated the total
sales of collectibles at approximately $1 billion
per year.
Net gains on sales of collectibles are generally subject to a 28% capital gains tax rate

PROFESSOR MILLS
BECAME CURIOUS
ABOUT INTERNET
INCOME TAX EVASION
BECAUSE IT HAS RECEIVED
LITTLE ATTENTION IN
THE INTERNET TAX DEBATE.
MOST POPULAR PRESS
AND RESEARCH ARTICLES
ON INTERNET TAXATION
FOCUS ONLY ON
THE SALES AND USE TAX.

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(although low-income taxpayers would pay
the lower 15% ordinary rate). Net losses,
however, may not be deductible if the IRS
deems the trading activity to be a hobby.
Potential unpaid tax is computed at 28%
of taxable gain, which is calculated as the
difference between the auction price and
the estimated tax basis. Since none of the
information on eBay indicates what the seller
originally paid for the item, it is impossible
for an outsider to know the seller’s tax basis.
If sellers sold the collectibles for twice what
they paid for them, the annualized estimate
of the potential unreported tax on sales
of collectibles is $134 million from eBay
auctions alone.
The growth in participation in auctions
suggests that more taxpayers have the opportunity to evade taxes. “If the Internet increases
the number of people engaging in small-scale
income tax evasion, such behavior could
undermine voluntary tax compliance in the
United States,” says Mills. The authors suggest
that either education be coupled with enforcement to collect such taxes, or that laws be
changed to exempt small gains from taxation.
In the meantime, Mills recommends that
profitable sellers consult their tax advisors
about possible tax liabilities. ■
Lillian Mills Ph.D., assistant professor
of accounting, can be contacted at
lmills@u.arizona.edu
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

ECONOMY
CONTINUES ITS
HIGH-FLYING ACT

By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
June 1, 2000

O

nce again we’ve revised our
forecasts upward, mirroring new
estimates for job growth that are
significantly stronger than originally
reported, coupled with the continuation
of unprecedented spending by consumers.
The New Economy is alive and well, but
it faces threats according to analysts—
this time from voter initiatives that could
derail the economy and torpedo economic
development efforts.
Real GDP increased at a 7.3% annual rate in
the fourth quarter of 1999, the largest increase
since the first quarter of 1984! This strong

surge reflected spending related to Y2K—
remediation of computer problems, stockpiling in anticipation of disruptions that didn’t
materialize, and celebratory spending. Strong
growth continued in the first quarter with
RGDP up nearly 5.5%, propelled by record
auto sales and consumer spending that
soared at an astonishing 8.3% annual rate.
Forecasts for the nation’s economy prepared by the WEFA Group continue to show
a gradual slowing due to higher interest
rates as the year progresses. The Federal
Reserve boosted its target federal funds rate,
as well as the discount rate, by 1/2 percent
on May 16th in a continuing effort to reign in
the run-away economy. Additional increases
are sure to follow as long as the economy
continues to grow beyond its non-inflationary
path of 3.5% to 4.0%.

Measures for Arizona also show very strong
growth in the first quarter. The number of
nonag jobs was 4.8% higher than one year
earlier, an amazing result given tightness of
labor markets (Exhibit 1). Unemployment
in Arizona in April was only 3.6%, the lowest
since 1969. Prior to recent revisions, employment reports showed a significant slowdown
of job creation in the metro Phoenix area,
which suggested that growth was being
restrained by shortages of labor. Revised data
show that the labor force remains quite elastic
as employment continues to grow at a rapid
pace, and workers are imported (more
about recent employment revisions below).
The number of manufacturing jobs statewide is growing once again. In March,
manufacturing jobs were 1.6% higher than
one year earlier, following a decline of 2.1%
for all of 1999. All of that growth, interestingly, has occurred in the Tucson metro area,
which added jobs at a 15% annual rate (3,500
new jobs) during the past year. In contrast,
manufacturing jobs in Phoenix have stabilized
during the past twelve months, following
a loss of 5,000 jobs during the 1998 Asian
crisis. We expect manufacturing payrolls in
the Phoenix area to increase going forward
as exports continue to improve and capacity
is added in the semiconductor and electronic
components industries.
Consumers maintained their buying spree
in early 2000, especially for big-ticket items:
sales at motor vehicle dealers rose more than
20%, year-over-year. When combined with an

EXHIBIT 1
Job Creation is Truly Amazing...

EXHIBIT 2
...in Both Phoenix and Tucson

Wage and Salary Job Growth, Arizona

Wage and Salary Job Growth, Phoenix-Mesa and Tucson MAs

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PA GE TH RE E

F O R E C A S T

Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

T A B L E S

1999
116,224.7
7.2
23,998.5
4.1
49,894.3
10.2
4,843.0
3.0
98.9
2,159.7
4.1
376.7
1.1
153.8
7.0
211.6
-2.0
1,783.0
4.8
512.8
3.0
675.6
7.9

2000
125,211.8
7.7
25,147.4
4.8
53,448.3
7.1
4,979.1
2.8
91.4
2,245.4
4.0
382.6
1.5
154.2
0.3
218.1
3.0
1,862.9
4.5
534.3
4.2
713.1
5.6

2001
133,639.0
6.7
26,166.2
4.1
55,408.2
3.7
5,107.3
2.6
85.5
2,326.7
3.6
386.0
0.9
151.6
-1.7
223.9
2.7
1,940.7
4.2
555.1
3.9
744.7
4.4

2002
142,004.1
6.3
27,126.8
3.7
58,646.0
5.8
5,234.8
2.5
85.5
2,404.0
3.3
389.5
0.9
150.9
-0.5
228.1
1.9
2,014.4
3.8
580.5
4.6
775.2
4.1

2003
150,145.4
5.7
28,010.0
3.3
61,826.7
5.4
5,360.4
2.4
81.8
2,474.0
2.9
394.3
1.2
151.8
0.6
231.8
1.6
2,079.6
3.2
603.5
4.0
803.7
3.7

2004
158,172.6
5.3
28,848.2
3.0
64,531.0
4.4
5,482.9
2.3
78.2
2,535.2
2.5
400.8
1.6
153.3
1.0
236.7
2.1
2,134.4
2.6
619.4
2.6
829.1
3.2

2005
166,330.7
5.2
29,691.4
2.9
67,184.7
4.1
5,602.0
2.2
75.4
2,593.2
2.3
407.1
1.6
154.8
0.9
241.5
2.0
2,186.1
2.4
631.7
2.0
854.9
3.1

Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1999
80,259.0
7.3
26,336.9
4.0
34,173.3
8.7
3,047.4
3.2
65.8
1,527.0
4.7
283.0
0.9
110.8
5.1
167.8
-1.0
1,243.9
5.6
369.9
4.6
487.0
7.4

2000
86,254.2
7.5
27,461.8
4.3
36,793.0
7.7
3,140.9
3.1
62.8
1,593.4
4.3
289.3
2.2
111.0
0.2
174.9
4.2
1,304.1
4.8
387.1
4.7
511.9
5.1

2001
92,008.2
6.7
28,495.6
3.8
37,985.0
3.2
3,228.9
2.8
56.4
1,639.7
2.9
289.1
0.0
107.5
-3.1
178.2
1.9
1,350.5
3.6
400.8
3.5
531.7
3.9

2002
97,338.1
5.8
29,404.1
3.2
39,957.1
5.2
3,310.4
2.5
49.6
1,676.8
2.3
287.6
-0.5
103.6
-3.6
180.5
1.3
1,389.3
2.9
413.1
3.1
547.1
2.9

2003
103,028.9
5.8
30,403.2
3.4
42,472.0
6.3
3,388.8
2.4
46.6
1,710.1
2.0
287.0
-0.2
101.4
-2.2
182.1
0.9
1,423.1
2.4
423.3
2.5
560.2
2.4

2004
108,645.1
5.5
31,342.4
3.1
44,481.8
4.7
3,466.4
2.3
45.8
1,744.0
2.0
289.8
1.0
101.4
0.0
185.0
1.5
1,454.2
2.2
430.6
1.7
573.9
2.4

2005
114,294.2
5.2
32,247.6
2.9
46,463.7
4.5
3,544.3
2.2
46.0
1,778.3
2.0
293.8
1.4
102.9
1.5
187.4
1.3
1,484.5
2.1
436.3
1.3
588.2
2.5

Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1999
18,908.4
7.6
22,356.3
4.8
7,839.6
8.0
845.8
2.7
17.1
340.0
4.6
55.3
8.5
20.9
5.9
32.6
12.3
284.7
3.9
72.0
3.2
111.2
5.1

2000
20,402.8
7.9
23,477.8
5.0
8,470.9
8.1
869.0
2.7
18.6
356.2
4.8
57.9
4.7
22.0
5.2
34.3
5.1
298.3
4.8
75.5
4.9
117.6
5.8

2001
21,820.7
6.9
24,494.8
4.3
8,858.1
4.6
890.8
2.5
17.1
367.6
3.2
59.3
2.4
22.7
2.8
34.8
1.6
308.3
3.3
78.5
4.0
123.5
5.0

2002
23,142.0
6.1
25,431.5
3.8
9,295.3
4.9
910.0
2.1
14.3
377.2
2.6
59.8
0.9
22.7
0.3
35.2
1.1
317.3
2.9
81.0
3.2
128.4
4.0

2003
24,444.8
5.6
26,355.5
3.6
9,735.8
4.7
927.5
1.9
12.6
384.5
1.9
60.1
0.5
22.6
-0.6
35.6
1.1
324.4
2.2
82.8
2.2
132.2
3.0

2004
25,701.9
5.1
27,234.6
3.3
10,129.0
4.0
943.7
1.7
11.2
390.7
1.6
60.4
0.4
22.4
-0.6
35.9
1.0
330.3
1.8
83.8
1.2
135.7
2.6

2005
26,942.5
4.8
28,087.2
3.1
10,520.3
3.9
959.2
1.6
10.5
396.4
1.4
60.7
0.6
22.4
0.0
36.3
1.0
335.6
1.6
84.5
0.9
138.9
2.4

*Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Karl Eller Graduate School of Management, College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona

PAGE FOUR

A RI ZO NA 'S EC ONO M Y

increase of 14% for furniture and home furnishings and near double-digit gains in building
materials, overall retail sales increased by
nearly 12%. In contrast to national readings,
which have declined in recent months, consumer confidence among Arizonans remains
at record highs.
Homebuilding indicators are the only
measures that show some slowing. Residential
permits are down from their mid-1999 peak,
but remain at very high levels relative to
history. Resale housing in both Phoenix and
Tucson also remains near recent highs. Rises
in interest rates will continue to nibble away
at affordability and housing measures will
record their first down year since 1989 (a
decline of 250 units was recorded in 1996,
but that was a pause rather than a drop).
Homebuilding in Metro Tucson is expected
to register another increase, albeit small,
reflecting very strong job growth (see forecast table page 4).
Estimates released on May 17 show that
Arizona personal income increased by 7.0%
in 1999. We were expecting a 7.2% increase.
That ranks Arizona 7th among all states,
following a ranking of 3rd in 1998. Methodological improvements and new sources of
income from federal administrative records
led to a boost in the level of personal income
by nearly $5 billion. In terms of per capita
income gains, Arizona’s 4.5% increase was
below the national average of 4.8%, but that
is the result of very rapid population growth
and the fact that newcomers have lower
incomes, on average, than existing residents.i

EMPLOYMENT REVISED
SHARPLY UPWARD
In its annual rebenchmarking of employment estimates, the Arizona Department of
Economic Security (DES) revised its preliminary statewide estimate for 1999 upward
by 8,800. More importantly, job growth for
1999 was revised upward to show a 4.1%
gain, right in line with our forecasts. The
preliminary estimate showed a 3.5% gain.
Over the past 16 years, the average difference between preliminary and final estimates
is 15,600 jobs in an upward direction. In
percentage terms, the 16-year average is one
full percentage point. The largest upward
revision came in 1994, 53,500 jobs or 2.5
percentage points. In only three of the past
16 years have the revisions been downward,
in 1986 and 1990-91, all periods of slow
growth or recession.
AR IZ ON A ’S E CON O MY

EXHIBIT 3
A Gradual Slowing is Expected
Wage and Salary Job Growth, Arizona

THE CURRENT
BOOM IN METRO
TUCSON’S
ECONOMY WILL
CONTINUE THIS
YEAR, MAKING
IT THE FASTESTGROWING AREA
IN ARIZONA...
IT IS QUICKLY
BECOMING
THE CENTER
OF ARIZONA’S
R&D ACTIVITY.

Although the revisions are small relative
to history, the effects on year-over-year growth
rates are large. For example, the preliminary
estimates showed a significant slowing in
metro Phoenix during 1999, so that by the
end of the year, the number of jobs was only
2.7% higher than one year earlier. We had
questioned in these pages whether the reported decline was real. The revised numbers
show growth of 4.3%, and that is a very
different picture. The employment reports
now show, as do other economic measures,
solid (and strong) growth in metro Phoenix
(see Exhibit 2).
Growth in Tucson was lowered a bit for
1999. Year-over-year increases for December
showed a 5.3% gain in preliminary reports.
The revisions now show a 4.6% gain. A good
deal of that difference may be explained by
the disappearance of some 2,000 jobs in the
Communications and Public Utilities industries
between December of 1998 and January of
1999. This looks like a problem of counting
jobs in the proper county rather than an
actual loss.ii Reports for early 2000 show
very strong gains in the 6.5-7.0% range.

THE OUTLOOK FOR
2000 AND BEYOND
During the past few years, both the national
and Arizona economies have been absolutely
unbelievable. With nearly half of the year over
and the economy still smoking, the year 2000
will go into the record books as another
strong year. The modest slowing expected

through the rest of this year will affect the
2001 numbers. Job growth of 4.0% is expected this year, nearly matching last year’s
gain. That is another 85,000 new jobs (and
a 135,000 increase in population). Next year,
expect a 3.6% gain, and smaller gains in
following years (Exhibit 3).
Manufacturing will add to growth while
construction activity becomes a negative.
Several thousand temporary census workers
also will add to job counts this year (and
of course, subtract from next year).
For personal income, a gain of 7.5-8.0%
is expected this year, followed by 6.7% and
6.3% in 2001 and 2002, respectively. Retail
sales finally slow from recent unbelievable
levels as confidence retreats, the wealth
effect subsides and household debt service
payments squeeze discretionary income as
interest rates move higher. A gain of 6.5% this
year is a reasonable expectation for sales,
following the outsized 10.1% gain in 1999.
Residential building permits retreat modestly,
from nearly 63,000 units statewide last year
to 53,000.
The current boom in Metro Tucson’s
economy will continue this year, making it
the fastest-growing area in Arizona. During
the 12-months ending in April, Metro Tucson
accounted for more than 19,000 (20.3%)
of the 94,000 new jobs created statewide.
In recent years, Tucson has added several
thousand high-paying R&D jobs in aerospace,
optics and electrical machinery and is quickly
becoming the center of Arizona’s R&D activity.
PAG E FIVE

THREATS TO THE OUTLOOK—
GROWTH CONTROLS,
INCOME TAX CUTS
Two voter initiatives on this fall’s ballot
could significantly alter the outlook. The
Citizen’s Growth Management Initiative
(CGMI), according to some analysts, would
significantly reduce building activity—right
away, not ten years down the road. Proponents argue that there would be no effect
on prices or availability. But if analysts are
correct, and development is brought to a
screeching halt, the impact on the overall
economy could be severe.
A second initiative deals with the elimination of Arizona’s individual income tax. This
is a major source of revenue, accounting for
over 37% of funding for state government.
Proponents argue that the tax cut would
significantly stimulate economic growth so
that lost revenues would be quickly replaced
by other sources (in Arizona, that falls on the
sales tax). Analysts counter that this “supplyside” argument is deeply flawed and that
the lost revenue would severely cripple the
delivery of public goods, including education.
Given the challenges of the knowledge-based
new economy, this could be a catastrophe for
Arizona’s future economic development.
Our current forecasts do not include these
potential risks, but we will take a close look
at the issue in coming months and incorporate our findings into future forecasts. ■
i See “Recent Migration Flows Underscore Arizona’s Diversity”,
Arizona’s Economy, October 1998.
ii See “Too Good to be True?” Arizona’s Economy, July 1999, p 5,
and “1999/00 Outlook” Arizona’s Economy, January 1998, p5.

S P O N S O R S

Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee
Arizona Portland Cement
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One Arizona
CB Richard Ellis
City of Tucson
Coldwell Banker Success Realty
Compass Bank
Elliott D. Pollack and Company
Jim Click Automotive Team
Kaufman and Broad
Merrill Lynch
Northern Trust Bank of Arizona
Pima County
Salt River Project
Territorial Newspapers
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Healthcare Council
Tucson Newspapers
U S WEST Communications
U S WEST Dex
PAGE 6
SIX

g
Technologygy&Management
2000 AWARDS LUNCHEON
■

■

Eller College of Business and Public Administration
& College of Engineering and Mines
The University of Arizona
— honoring —

2000 Technology Executive of the Year
Michael Bonsignore, Chief Executive Officer, Honeywell

Lifetime Achievement Awards
Norman McClelland, Chairman, Shamrock Foods
John Leonis, Chairman of the Board, Litton Industries

Distinguished Service Awards
Ray Oglethorpe, President-Technology Division, America Online
Mark Hoffman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Commerce One
Program M.C. Betsey Bayless, Arizona Secretary of State
Awards Presenters Jane Dee Hull, Governor of Arizona and

Peter Likins, President, The University of Arizona
Tuesday . December 12, 2000 . Noon-1:30 PM
Arizona Biltmore Resort . Phoenix, Arizona
$75 per Person* . $750 per Table of 10*
Reservations & Information Dianne Smith at 520-621-8051
*Fee is not a charitable contribution.

Sponsors: Andersen Consulting, Honeywell, Raytheon

A R I Z O N A '’ S E C O N O M Y

A R I Z O N A

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION*
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining (Mohave County only)
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
1999

JAN
2000

FEB
2000

MAR
2000

APR
2000

64,500
52,350
12,150
18.8

58,375
48,250
10,125
17.3

56,650
47,875
8,775
15.5

57,250
47,575
9,675
16.9

59,425
46,300
13,125
22.1

-17.5
-13.4
-29.4
-14.4

3.3
3.3
3.3
-2.3

43,400
2,925.0
2,400
1,850
12,250
1,300
8,275
14,400

38,975
2,825.0
2,325
1,450
11,225
1,100
9,175
10,875

39,800
2,875.0
2,425
1,450
11,050
1,125
9,350
11,525

40,150
2,900.0
2,450
1,450
11,075
1,100
9,475
11,700

39,250
2,975
2,475
1,425
10,475
1,050
9,175
11,675

-9.2
10.2
5.3
-20.8
-11.2
-16.0
11.6
-22.7

4.0
11.0
10.9
-2.7
-2.2
-0.5
2.1
9.7

132,662
110,653
9,858
12,151
9,223
16,104

96,428
71,890
9,889
14,649
11,375
12,928

101,323
77,598
11,834
11,891
8,904
17,034

100,815
75,947
11,310
13,558
8,657
16,742

...
...
...
9,924
6,479
...

4.4
0.6
8.3
-6.2
-14.0
-0.1

10.6
8.4
9.4
24.2
0.2
1.6

9,363
5,358
1,566
2,439

9,677
4,659
4,660
358

19,083
9,620
8,828
635

8,778
7,023
1,340
415

7,023
6,696
327
0

-71.2
-26.4
-94.7
...

-23.7
-20.5
-29.6
-21.7

63
63

61
61

176
94

80
80

81
81

-21.4
-21.4

-3.0
-12.1

71,725
68,700
3,025
4.2

72,150
68,650
3,500
4.9

71,575
68,175
3,400
4.8

71,450
68,225
3,225
4.5

71,150
68,250
2,900
4.1

2.3
3.4
-17.7
-19.6

5.9
6.4
-4.2
-9.3

44,975
100
3,675
3,650.0
2,200
13,700
1,500
11,100
9,050

44,725
100
3,600
3,625.0
2,150
13,525
1,500
11,125
9,100

44,975
100
3,575
3,675.0
2,150
13,600
1,500
11,200
9,175

45,675
100
3,600
3,800.0
2,250
13,600
1,500
11,400
9,425

45,550
100
3,600
3,875
2,300
13,375
1,600
11,275
9,425

4.2
0
6.7
2.6
9.5
1.1
4.9
3.0
8.6

5.1
-2.0
6.9
2.8
6.2
3.1
1.3
7.8
5.5

121,254
94,623
12,408
14,223
10,795
31,951

96,901
71,573
12,141
13,187
10,240
20,573

107,491
82,108
13,549
11,834
8,862
22,592

135,633
88,874
14,942
31,817
20,315
23,854

...
...
...
17,305
11,299
...

31.1
13.8
13.1
17.7
7.9
-3.8

12.7
8.9
9.7
39.1
12.5
15.1

28,841
19,516
8,871
454

24,379
18,651
909
4,819

15,838
11,737
2,599
1,502

34,360
18,130
6,856
9,374

17,101
15,449
988
664

-41.6
-8.5
-79.6
-91.2

11.3
7.3
-30.0
70.2

194
182

391
123

122
122

183
181

157
153

-9.2
-9.5

11.4
0.4

*No mining data available
See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE SEVEN

A R I Z O N A

COCHISE COUNTY*
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY*
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
1999

JAN
2000

FEB
2000

MAR
2000

APR
2000

41,175
39,125
2,050
5.0

41,125
38,950
2,175
5.3

40,425
38,450
1,975
4.9

40,075
38,175
1,900
4.7

39,575
37,950
1,625
4.1

0.8
3.1
-34.3
-34.8

4.0
5.7
-19.5
-22.6

32,450
2,325
800
1,250
8,400
750
8,550
10,375

32,075
2,250
800
1,275
8,150
700
8,550
10,350

32,075
2,275
800
1,275
8,100
700
8,525
10,400

32,000
2,200
825
1,275
8,050
700
8,500
10,450

31,925
2,225
850
1,275
8,025
725
8,400
10,425

5.0
-2.2
-17.1
4.1
11.5
3.6
13.1
-1.2

5.7
16.6
-9.1
-3.2
9.5
-0.9
13.3
-1.3

55,842
42,546
7,109
6,187
4,696
16,520

49,439
38,734
5,923
4,782
3,713
11,833

57,798
43,135
7,771
6,892
5,161
13,534

58,833
42,559
7,589
8,685
5,545
14,051

...
...
...
6,785
4,430
...

1.8
-0.2
19.3
-15.0
-22.1
17.4

11.0
7.7
15.1
21.6
-0.4
34.4

5,714
4,084
693
937

5,948
3,003
2,240
705

4,218
2,841
493
884

7,422
4,736
2,686
0

17,037
9,409
4,676
2,952

53.0
39.9
55.9
109.4

9.3
-15.2
41.8
20.2

50
50

37
37

35
35

49
49

125
45

86.6
-32.8

-4.7
-16.6

12,900
11,375
1,525
11.8

12,825
11,450
1,375
10.7

12,600
11,450
1,150
9.1

12,625
11,450
1,175
9.3

12,450
11,475
975
7.8

-3.9
-0.2
-32.8
-30.1

-1.5
0.4
-10.4
-9.8

11,750
375
825
1,275
4,400
225
1,600
3,050

11,700
350
825
1,225
4,475
200
1,575
3,050

11,875
350
850
1,250
4,450
200
1,650
3,125

12,000
350
850
1,275
4,525
200
1,650
3,150

12,125
350
850
1,300
4,600
200
1,675
3,150

2.3
0.0
-5.6
2.0
-1.6
0.0
8.1
8.6

0.4
-1.1
-8.5
11.5
-4.9
-21.8
4.8
7.5

31,952
26,193
2,942
2,817
2,138
4,250

22,127
17,022
2,782
2,323
1,804
3,689

24,577
19,199
2,964
2,414
1,808
4,435

24,402
18,867
2,521
3,014
1,924
4,241

...
...
...
2,823
1,843
...

0.3
3.0
-12.9
-3.8
-11.8
-15.4

2.5
-0.1
-0.4
24.2
1.9
20.2

4,051
1,808
950
1,293

4,138
3,188
950
0

3,353
3,353
0
0

4,832
3,282
1,550
0

12,882
11,587
1,295
0

280.7
353.5
547.5
-100.0

-0.5
9.1
-31.9
17.1

18
16

21
19

40
29

32
32

196
28

460.0
-20.0

15.7
-8.5

*No mining data available
See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly

PAGE EIGHT

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining (Greenlee County only)
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
1999

JAN
2000

FEB
2000

MAR
2000

APR
2000

17,725
16,625
1,100
6.2

17,825
16,700
1,125
6.3

17,875
16,750
1,125
6.3

17,925
16,825
1,100
6.1

17,850
16,875
975
5.5

0.1
2.3
-26.4
-26.5

-2.5
-1.4
-16.5
-14.4

14,200
725
1,000
1,150
525
3,425
225
2,700
4,450

14,200
725
975
1,150
500
3,575
200
2,575
4,500

14,375
725
975
1,175
500
3,725
200
2,550
4,525

14,575
725
975
1,175
500
3,775
200
2,600
4,625

14,650
725
1,025
1,175
500
3,675
200
2,650
4,700

3.9
3.6
7.9
4.4
-4.8
10.5
0.0
1.0
1.1

-0.9
63.9
0.4
-29.0
-11.0
4.6
-14.8
3.6
-2.0

27,896
21,721
3,200
2,975
2,258
8,393

20,441
15,390
2,934
2,117
1,644
7,086

23,806
17,242
3,555
3,009
2,253
6,528

23,845
17,103
3,304
3,438
2,195
6,909

...
...
...
3,380
2,207
...

3.3
-0.5
1.2
7.5
-1.5
-3.9

6.8
4.6
5.2
20.1
-0.9
-18.4

4,569
4,420
149
0

7,241
4,039
141
3,061

5,418
4,186
800
432

5,548
5,428
0
120

8,710
5,113
3,597
0

1.2
17.5
-15.4
...

20.4
9.1
-28.2
200.1

36
36

31
31

36
36

40
36

42
42

35.5
35.5

12.1
7.9

32,525
30,275
2,250
6.9

32,550
30,300
2,250
6.9

32,400
30,225
2,175
6.7

32,475
30,425
2,050
6.3

32,425
30,600
1,825
5.6

-1.9
0.5
-29.8
-28.5

-1.4
-0.3
-13.6
-12.5

25,250
3,275
1,525
1,425
775
5,650
400
4,475
7,725

25,050
3,275
1,575
1,425
750
5,675
350
4,350
7,650

25,325
3,275
1,550
1,450
725
5,825
350
4,300
7,850

25,700
3,275
1,550
1,450
725
5,950
350
4,350
8,050

26,000
3,250
1,625
1,450
725
5,825
375
4,475
8,275

2.4
-2.3
4.8
3.6
-6.5
4.0
7.1
1.7
3.4

-0.5
6.5
-8.3
-24.0
-9.3
1.7
-16.7
6.0
0.4

50,043
40,378
4,861
4,804
3,646
12,510

38,295
30,082
4,548
3,665
2,846
10,626

43,087
32,989
5,231
4,867
3,645
10,589

45,189
33,866
5,115
6,208
3,964
9,630

...
...
...
5,412
3,534
...

9.9
6.0
3.1
5.7
-3.2
-8.2

7.2
5.1
4.9
22.9
1.0
-13.1

6,479
6,330
149
0

7,970
4,768
141
3,061

5,894
4,662
800
432

7,025
6,379
0
646

12,436
6,039
6,397
0

-28.6
16.2
-45.6
...

-0.4
8.4
-52.4
108.4

97
45

39
39

43
43

49
45

51
51

15.9
15.9

17.5
3.0

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

AR IZON A ’S ECON O MY

PAGE NINE

A R I Z O N A

APACHE-NAVAJO REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
1999

JAN
2000

FEB
2000

MAR
2000

APR
2000

52,000
45,850
6,150
11.8

52,025
45,050
6,975
13.4

51,525
44,875
6,650
12.9

51,775
45,750
6,025
11.6

50,900
45,675
5,225
10.3

-4.5
-1.3
-25.1
-21.6

-0.1
1.9
-12.0
-12.2

46,450
900
2,000
1,275
2,550
7,675
1,325
7,975
22,750

45,275
875
1,900
1,175
2,525
7,225
1,225
7,800
22,550

45,575
875
1,850
1,175
2,525
7,100
1,200
7,775
23,075

46,900
875
1,900
1,175
2,525
7,175
1,200
7,950
24,100

46,950
875
1,925
1,150
2,525
7,350
1,200
8,000
23,925

0.8
-2.8
-1.3
-6.1
5.2
-3.9
-4.0
3.6
1.8

2.5
-3.8
7.1
-11.0
3.4
1.3
9.4
6.6
1.8

91,196
76,032
4,758
10,406
7,899
13,902

55,718
43,498
4,162
8,058
6,257
11,651

57,522
44,186
5,079
8,257
6,183
4,548

77,479
61,671
4,883
10,925
6,975
10,919

...
...
...
12,560
8,201
...

39.3
42.4
21.3
34.8
23.5
6.2

25.0
23.2
5.8
52.0
26.1
17.2

62,378
6,964
52,160
3,254

13,058
12,040
188
830

14,678
5,323
138
9,217

29,965
7,374
12,980
9,611

8,730
7,476
855
399

-5.3
20.1
-41.0
-74.2

53.6
19.6
82.8
80.7

55
55

100
100

46
46

55
55

54
54

-11.5
-11.5

5.2
8.1

128,500
122,250
6,250
4.9

125,200
118,650
6,550
5.2

124,900
119,100
5,800
4.6

126,875
121,650
5,225
4.1

127,925
123,425
4,500
3.5

2.3
3.6
-23.4
-25.1

3.4
3.9
-6.6
-9.7

104,250
925
7,150
5,675
2,775
26,575
2,600
30,150
28,400

101,175
925
6,900
5,650
2,575
25,350
2,550
29,450
27,775

102,450
925
6,825
5,675
2,600
25,200
2,550
29,625
29,050

105,100
925
6,875
5,600
2,675
25,625
2,575
30,275
30,550

106,700
950
6,900
5,650
2,750
26,100
2,600
30,975
30,775

5.1
-2.6
3.0
-2.2
-2.7
1.6
2.0
7.6
8.9

4.3
-0.4
2.6
-5.3
-7.1
2.2
-12.2
9.2
7.3

228,361
177,824
29,877
20,660
15,681
67,561

160,931
120,295
26,544
14,092
10,942
47,456

180,733
131,685
30,114
18,934
14,179
45,531

195,545
138,177
32,950
24,418
15,590
44,973

...
...
...
28,143
18,375
...

10.2
6.0
10.2
41.0
29.3
8.6

15.1
11.8
12.5
51.0
24.5
16.5

37,085
24,782
3,055
9,248

68,608
30,826
13,337
24,445

31,918
24,243
7,675
0

52,514
35,776
4,100
12,638

52,840
32,730
6,959
13,151

-13.7
-3.6
-42.8
-12.8

-13.7
-14.3
-39.9
22.5

214
206

329
203

205
177

260
254

268
219

3.5
-7.6

-10.9
0.9

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

PAGE TEN

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj.
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

DEC
1999

JAN
2000

FEB
2000

MAR
2000

APR
2000

1,606.7
1,563.1
43.6
2.8

1,585.9
1,540.8
45.1
2.9

1,588.7
1,546.2
42.5
2.8

1,590.6
1,549.8
40.8
2.7

1,591.5
1,554.5
37.0
2.6

2.2
2.9
-19.6
-21.2

4.1
4.1
4.8
0.0

1,580.2
2.9
115.5
164.5
126.7
37.8
82.7
382.7
88.1
294.6
122.5
515.3
194.1

1,549.1
2.8
114.4
164.3
126.5
37.8
81.1
372.6
87.6
285.0
122.1
505.6
186.2

1,568.5
2.8
114.3
164.3
126.5
37.8
81.6
373.6
88.6
285.0
122.9
515.0
194.0

1,578.3
2.9
114.0
164.2
126.4
37.8
82.1
375.1
89.0
286.1
123.2
521.6
195.2

1,588.5
2.9
115.3
164.3
126.7
37.6
82.7
376.7
88.9
287.8
123.9
526.9
195.8

4.1
-47.3
2.9
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
5.9
3.4
0.5
4.3
5.7
7.6
1.0

4.4
-38.3
5.9
-2.1
-2.2
-1.5
7.1
3.7
1.1
4.5
4.8
8.4
0.6

3,604,337
2,730,298
357,025
356,920
160,095
695,051

2,796,128
1,949,771
359,770
343,512
143,074
555,339

2,943,003
2,059,424
361,934
380,481
141,164
628,252

3,139,507
2,190,195
363,035
402,763
183,514
661,658

...
...
...
...
188,354
...

5.3
2.9
6.0
10.7
15.8
0.5

9.5
10.8
-1.9
10.3
18.4
8.2

623,409
439,590
130,187
53,632

705,463
412,321
212,051
81,091

581,711
446,895
110,448
24,368

1,336,248
634,596
664,613
37,039

1,007,544
572,207
332,086
103,251

10.8
-5.2
75.9
-11.3

-6.1
-3.6
-4.4
-22.2

3,572
2,501
42
1,029

3,131
2,446
40
645

4,167
2,701
86
1,380

5,183
3,418
100
1,665

...
...
...
...

8.5
-20.6
40.8
316.2

-3.5
-4.5
0.2
-0.1

728,080
4,477
162,627

519,800
3,166
164,182

632,541
3,914
161,610

892,382
5,250
169,977

931,558
5,323
175,006

14.1
3.5
10.2

14.2
6.5
7.2

2,844,390
49,305

2,690,486
49,153

2,794,281
52,673

3,422,053
56,302

3,082,885
53,966

8.1
14.9

7.3
9.0

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

I
1999

II
1999

III
1999

IV
1999

I
2000

3,011.9
7.3
13.0
5.7
16.5

3,035.4
7.4
13.2
5.8
16.0

3,058.8
7.5
13.4
5.8
15.9

3,082.3
7.6
13.4
5.9
15.9

3,105.8
7.6
13.5
5.9
15.8

3.1
3.4
3.6
3.9
-3.8

3.2
5.4
5.4
5.4
-7.5

78,137
59,544
4,161
-167
12,154
10,767
25,943

79,502
60,705
4,233
-164
12,245
10,949
26,192

80,933
61,901
4,307
-163
12,361
11,141
26,459

82,465
63,157
4,385
-163
12,512
11,344
26,754

84,006
64,422
4,464
-164
12,667
11,545
27,048

7.5
8.2
7.3
1.8
4.2
7.2
4.3

7.3
8.3
7.3
1.5
3.4
6.5
4.0

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

AR IZ ON A’ S E CO N OMY

PAGE ELEVEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj.
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

APR
2000

DEC
1999

JAN
2000

FEB
2000

MAR
2000

396.1
383.0
13.1
3.4

395.6
382.0
13.6
3.4

395.9
383.6
12.3
3.2

395.9
385.2
10.7
2.9

395.7
385.7
10.0
2.9

4.4
4.4
4.2
0.0

5.1
4.6
24.5
17.4

349.5
1.8
22.6
32.5
27.0
5.5
12.4
74.6
10.9
63.7
13.7
116.8
75.1

346.8
1.8
22.1
32.6
27.1
5.5
12.2
72.9
10.7
62.2
13.5
117.0
74.7

351.0
1.8
22.3
32.7
27.2
5.5
12.2
73.4
10.7
62.7
13.5
117.5
77.6

353.8
1.8
22.0
33.1
27.5
5.6
12.4
74.0
10.8
63.2
13.7
118.4
78.4

355.2
1.8
22.1
33.1
27.5
5.6
12.3
74.7
10.9
63.8
13.8
119.2
78.2

5.7
-10.0
5.2
12.6
16.0
-1.8
3.4
6.0
2.8
6.5
7.8
5.5
3.6

4.6
-12.6
9.7
9.3
12.6
-3.8
-6.8
3.6
0.8
4.1
2.7
6.7
2.2

838,671
618,169
89,864
82,849
47,789
137,457

644,298
432,981
90,563
78,481
42,272
99,391

683,156
462,154
91,108
88,201
41,693
123,593

733,718
494,141
91,385
89,160
59,031
122,130

...
...
...
...
54,470
...

8.4
6.2
6.0
5.4
17.6
14.1

8.9
9.7
0.1
5.6
27.2
20.3

120,116
70,577
16,859
32,680

126,500
69,102
33,525
23,873

137,773
70,461
33,008
34,304

219,229
91,357
78,825
49,047

140,587
113,801
21,788
4,998

-14.3
9.1
-32.9
-81.6

8.4
-13.1
34.6
90.1

900
522
378

497
465
32

644
575
69

...
...
...

...
...
...

13.8
8.0
104.0

4.2
-1.1
33.1

119,866
796
150,585

92,970
646
143,917

112,365
773
145,362

161,409
1,062
151,986

153,212
979
156,499

2.2
-8.2
11.4

15.0
8.1
6.1

295,796
23,629

271,852
24,310

310,165
20,496

347,470
22,565

315,933
21,970

-2.0
-6.6

0.5
-2.5

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

I
2000

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

I
1999

II
1999

III
1999

IV
1999

837.5
1.2
2.9
1.7
4.2

842.8
1.2
2.9
1.7
4.2

848.5
1.2
2.9
1.7
4.5

854.4
1.2
2.9
1.8
4.7

860.3
1.2
3.0
1.8
4.7

2.7
-1.8
2.2
5.0
12.1

2.7
3.8
2.4
1.5
-3.0

18,365
11,542
815
215
3,921
3,502
21,928

18,719
11,803
832
219
3,975
3,554
22,210

19,085
12,065
849
225
4,036
3,609
22,492

19,465
12,324
867
231
4,108
3,668
22,781

19,842
12,581
884
238
4,181
3,726
23,065

8.0
9.0
8.5
10.9
6.6
6.4
5.2

7.7
9.0
8.4
11.1
5.7
5.8
4.9

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table

PAGE TWELVE

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj.
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Transportation
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
Schools
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Copper Mining*
Construction
Manufacturing
Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s)
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
1999

JAN
2000

FEB
2000

MAR
2000

APR
2000

2401.8
2312.3
89.5
4.0

2375.8
2284.2
91.6
4.1

2374.7
2290.0
84.7
3.9

2378.8
2298.1
80.7
3.9

2381.1
2303.9
77.2
3.6

1.9
2.9
-21.5
-21.7

4.0
4.1
2.4
-1.2

2239.4
10.1
158.5
212.8
164.5
48.3
107.4
70.1
535.5
107.8
427.7
144.0
707.7
363.4
47.0
316.4
170.5
40.5

2199.7
9.9
156.4
212.5
164.3
48.2
105.4
68.1
521.7
107.5
414.2
143.5
697.0
353.3
45.5
307.8
161.4
40.6

2227.8
9.9
156.6
212.9
164.8
48.1
106.0
68.4
522.7
107.5
415.2
144.4
707.6
367.7
46.2
321.5
174.5
40.3

2244.6
9.9
155.9
213.3
165.2
48.1
106.8
69.1
525.3
108.1
417.2
144.7
715.9
372.8
49.4
323.4
175.6
40.1

2256.3
10.0
156.9
213.6
165.7
47.9
107.3
69.5
527.1
108.1
419.0
145.7
722.4
373.3
49.6
323.7
175.9
40.4

4.3
-21.9
3.2
1.4
2.5
-2.2
5.0
3.9
3.2
-1.3
4.4
5.7
7.2
3.1
4.4
2.9
1.8
0.2

4.3
-17.5
6.2
-0.8
-0.3
-2.4
3.7
4.5
3.3
-1.1
4.6
4.1
8.3
2.0
3.4
1.8
0.2
0.8

19.54
14.28
12.82
17.7
11.42
14.1

n/a
14.25
12.79
18.04
11.46
13.99

n/a
14.51
12.76
18.17
11.62
13.71

n/a
14.58
12.68
18.4
11.47
14.12

n/a
14.86
12.82
18.64
11.69
14.03

14.7
3.6
1.4
6.2
-0.4
6.5

5.1
0.8
2.4
2.4
-0.8
2.8

5,265,293
3,916,716
557,862
511,582
279,133
211,866
395,288
193,735
58,470
289,198
995,306
45,816
115,377

4,076,755
2,775,846
566,824
487,982
246,102
191,103
417,011
219,379
65,713
272,718
773,486
46,783
157,258

4,315,880
2,952,478
570,233
545,224
247,945
185,671
362,773
216,523
81,900
286,951
870,108
28,049
213,095

4,628,666
3,144,297
571,968
571,233
341,168
217,832
375,693
213,752
72,928
325,742
908,198
38,901
228,058

...
...
...
...
325,776
212,703
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

7.1
4.3
6.8
9.8
16.5
6.8
2.2
17.4
-1.2
16.1
2.5
-47.6
5.1

10.8
10.6
6.7
9.6
24.5
1.5
3.2
16.0
9.8
3.5
10.4
-23.4
6.9

897,436
579,009
214,490
103,937

965,741
558,558
268,001
139,182

814,466
579,135
163,989
71,342

1,700,373
808,653
772,950
118,770

1,276,180
775,394
375,371
125,415

3.8
-1.7
43.9
-30.1

-3.7
-5.0
-2.0
-1.2

4,843
3,439
89
1,315

4,058
3,343
60
655

5,250
3,732
123
1,395

6,501
4,659
159
1,683

...
...
...
...

8.1
-15.6
78.7
315.6

-0.6
-2.1
9.7
4.7

1,688
1,347
19
322

1,340
1,022
19
299

1,555
1,220
28
306

1,981
1,609
34
338

1,736
1,415
29
291

-16.1
-15.9
31.8
-20.3

-7.7
-8.8
21.7
-4.8

* discontinued
See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

AR IZ ON A ’S E CON O MY

PAGE THIRTEEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income
Proprietor's Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

I N D I C A T O R S

I
1999

II
1999

III
1999

IV
1999

I
2000

4,789.8
10.0
20.1
10.1
25.5

4,825.3
10.4
19.9
9.6
25.1

4,860.4
10.6
20.1
9.5
24.3

4,894.9
10.0
20.0
10.0
24.0

4,928.8
10.1
20.1
10.0
23.7

2.9
0.9
0.3
-0.3
-7.0

3.0
3.3
1.9
0.4
-2.7

110,892
79,403
5,555
301
18,186
18,556

115,691
83,390
5,792
306
19,018
18,768

118,030
85,304
5,905
309
19,306
19,017

120,286
86,961
6,003
311
19,731
19,287

122,219
88,396
6,110
313
19,857
19,763

10.2
11.3
10.0
3.9
9.2
6.5

8.3
9.3
8.2
7.2
5.9
6.2

66,245
7,272
8,552
646
7,906
23,152
30,720

69,042
7,545
8,720
578
8,142
23,976
31,568

69,900
7,601
8,713
390
8,323
24,284
31,598

71,390
7,708
9,018
510
8,508
24,574
32,055

...
...
...
...
...
24,797
...

7.4
5.0
7.2
-24.1
9.9
7.1
3.1

8.1
5.2
9.3
9.3
9.3
5.2
3.8

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA
DEC
1999
Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles

MAR
2000

APR
2000

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JAN
2000

FEB
2000

890,306
69,620
250,992
569,694
200,249
44,083
146,034
10,132

854,969
77,532
239,334
538,103
307,670
53,839
225,929
27,902

975,123
104,274
239,035
631,814
410,233
70,350
299,003
40,880

1,335,541
142,261
439,928
753,352
415,417
79,784
286,023
49,610

1,868,433
188,262
553,791
1,126,380
335,071
57,108
223,406
54,557

15.6
18.2
13.1
16.4
13.1
-3.4
16.3
21.3

1.5
-1.4
-0.6
3.0
8.5
-4.8
14.6
1.6

820,408
2,306,446
871,451

751,616
2,016,822
850,123

740,871
2,024,266
824,903

799,918
2,154,878
...

757,219
1,947,179
...

3.0
0.3
10.5

3.2
1.1
6.3

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA

Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

DEC
1999

JAN
2000

FEB
2000

MAR
2000

168.3
165.1

168.7
165.5

169.7
166.4

171.1
167.8

APR
2000
171.2
167.9

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
3.0
3.2

2.6
2.7

Sources and abbreviations:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department
of Commerce
PA GE F OU RT EE N

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department
of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems
Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission)
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior
NSCCC: Nogales-Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce

PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service,
U.S. Department of Justice
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department
of the Treasury
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA

Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1992=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

I
2000

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

I
1999

II
1999

III
1999

IV
1999

167.3
164.6
161.2

168.3
166.2
162.8

170.0
167.2
163.9

170.5
168.3
165.1

173.4
169.8
166.6

3.6
3.2
3.4

3.0
2.6
2.7

104.0
103.7

104.4
104.3

104.7
104.8

105.2
105.4

105.5
105.8

1.5
2.0

1.5
1.9

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table

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PAGE FIFTEEN