J A N U A R Y

2 0 0 0

Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
December 1, 1999

2000|2001

W I N T E R

I S S U E

EXHIBIT 1
Consumer Spending Continues
Well Above Long-Term Trend
Real Retail Sales Growth, Arizona

OUTLOOK

SLOWER GROWTH AHEAD?

Both the U.S. and Arizona economies
remain remarkably strong. New data
for the U.S. economy shows faster
growth over the recent past and much
higher growth potential as we go
forward. In Arizona, there are signs
that the economy is slowing, but there
may be significantly less slowing than
meets the eye. Future revisions to the
Arizona data will likely boost current
growth estimates. Nevertheless, the
economy is expected to slow as labor
becomes increasingly scarce, prices
rise and the Fed succeeds in shifting
the growth machine into a lower gear.

T

he U.S. economy continues to grow
rapidly as 1999 comes to a close. Recent
revisions show that the economy has
been growing faster than originally thought,
averaging 4.2% annually from 1995 to 1998,
rather than 3.8%. Real GDP grew at a strong
5.5% annual rate during 1999’s third quarter
and will grow by almost four percent for the
whole year.
The most striking aspect of the new revisions is the upward boost to productivity.
Over the past three years, productivity has
increased at a 2.6% annual rate, much faster
than the originally reported 1.9%. This helps
explain how the economy has been able to
grow so fast without generating inflation,

and lends support for proponents of the
“New Economy.”
Since the early 1990’s, corporations have
been investing mightily in computers and high
technology and adopting new supply-chain
management models that use the Internet
to more efficiently link to their suppliers
and customers. According to a University of
Texas study, the Internet economy continues
to grow rapidly—up 68% in 1999’s first
quarter compared to a year earlier. In 1998,

ELLER COLLE GE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

the Internet economy accounted for $300
billion in U.S. revenue, which makes the
Internet economy roughly the same size as
the energy, automobile, and telecommunication industries. According to the U.S.
Department of Commerce, high-tech has
accounted for one-fourth of all economic
growth since 1993.
The Fed has revised its target growth rate
upward from the 2.25-2.5% range to nearer
3.0%! Even so, it remains concerned about

I N S I D E
TUCSON IN AMERICAN
COMMUNITY SURVEY ...........6
FORECAST TABLES ................7
ARIZONA
ECONOMIC INDICATORS ........8

EXHIBIT 2
Real Mortgage Rates
Signal Impending Pullback

EXHIBIT 3
Office Markets Still
Healthy as Vacancies Rise

AZ Residential Permits and Real Mortgage Rates

Office Vacancy Rates (%), Phoenix & Tucson

tight job markets and rising commodity prices
and the large jump in crude oil prices. Even
with a 3.0% target, growth remains well above
desired. On November 16th, the Fed boosted
short-term interest rates by a quarter point
for the third time since June. That returns
the Fed Funds rate to 5.5%, the same level
as before the world financial crisis during
the fall of 1998.
A cooldown in consumer buying and homebuilding is a prerequisite for a downshift in
economic growth. Both homebuilding and
the stock market have felt the effects of higher
rates, but neither has fallen enough to matter
much. Meanwhile, exports have picked up
markedly in recent months and that’s keeping
jobs and incomes growing. That in turn is
keeping consumer confidence at a high level
(even though confidence has slipped in
recent months). Accumulated wealth effects
over the past few years from the stock market
and higher housing prices could support
consumer spending for some time, even if
both take a turn for the worse.
The Fed’s efforts to slow growth could
therefore be frustrated, and further tightening
may be required. The economy is expected
to slow early next year due to Y2K effects, so
the Fed is likely to postpone any further action
until mid-year. Businesses are expected to
stock up during the 4Q1999 in preparation
for possible supply disruptions and then cut
back in early 2000. Also, by the end of the
PAGE TWO

A COOLDOWN
IN CONSUMER BUYING
AND HOMEBUILDING
IS A PREREQUISITE
FOR A DOWNSHIFT
IN ECONOMIC GROWTH,
BUT...
CONSUMER SPENDING
AND SURGING
HOUSING MARKETS
CONTINUE TO CARRY
THE ECONOMY.

first quarter, Y2K remediation efforts should
be complete, bringing to an end an activity
where businesses and governments have spent
billions of dollars over the past few years.
Expect the U.S. economy to slow to three
percent growth next year. Light vehicle sales,
homebuilding, and commercial construction
will decline modestly, corporate profits will
dip and unemployment will rise, as will
consumer inflation. But the economy will
continue to set new records each month for
the longest expansion in history, unless some
unforeseen shock knocks it off course.

THE ARIZONA ECONOMY:
RECENT EVIDENCE
Arizona’s economy continues to grow
rapidly as evidenced by most aggregate economic measures. The slowing that economists
have been predicting has been late to arrive,
but we still expect slowing to become evident
soon. A few indicators, such as employment
and personal income, are showing slower
growth, but we are increasingly wary that
these numbers may be giving false signals and
that they will be revised significantly upward.
As reported last quarter, consumer spending and surging housing markets continue
to carry the economy. Sales at Arizona retail
stores increased by nearly nine percent in
August (on a 12-month versus 12-month
basis). That is an acceleration from near
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

EXHIBIT 4
Is Income Garowth Slowing?

EXHIBIT 5
Reporting of Government Payrolls Erratic

Personal Income Growth, Arizona

Government Employment, Arizona

seven percent recorded during the first
quarter. Motor vehicle dealers, apparel &
accessories, and building materials/hardware
have enjoyed the largest gains with all posting
double-digit increases. Sales at furniture
stores shot up by 9.8%. Over the same period,
restaurant and bar sales gains moderated
slightly from a 7.8% rate to a still strong
6.8% increase.
After adjusting for inflation, retail sales
state-wide continue to grow at a rate in excess
of eight percent, the fastest since early 1995.
Over the past 2-1/2 years, consumers have
been spending at a rate above the 20-year
average of 3.2% (Exhibit 1).
Homebuilding, as measured by the number
of residential building permits, remains
near its record high level reached in March.
With data through September, we are expecting more than 64,000 units statewide this
year, an increase of five percent from the
prior year’s record. New single-family units
will approach 50,000, beating last year’s
48,000 total. So far, the more than one percentage point increase in mortgage rates
has had little noticeable effect on residential
building. Real mortgage rates are nearing
six percent, the highest since 1994. In 1994
and 1996, a rise in real mortgage rates above
five percent pushed permits downward
(Exhibit 2).
Nor have higher rates affected resale
housing. In Metro Tucson, the number of
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

units sold on the MLS recently approached
12,000 at an annual rate. Totals for the whole
year will be closer to 11,000, up 10% or
so from the 10,000 units sold in 1998. In
Phoenix, sales will top 55,000 in 1999, up
from a record 51,000 the year before.
The non-residential portion of the building industry is showing signs of significant
slowing. Since peaking in the second quarter
of 1998, non-residential awards have fallen
from a $3.55 billion annual rate to about
$2.25 billion, a fall of 28%. The falloff is evident in both the Phoenix and Tucson markets,
but more pronounced in Phoenix. During
last year’s financial crisis that was precipitated by Russia’s bond default and near
collapse of Long Term Capital Management,
the flow of capital into commercial projects
dried up, and although financing is once
again available, it remains significantly
below precrisis levels. Sentiment of industry
analysts nationwide is that the need for new
commercial development is past the peak
for this cycle. In Phoenix, for example, nearly
three million square feet of office space will
be built in 1999, while roughly 1.75 million
is absorbed. That will push office vacancies
up into double digits by year-end for the first
time since 1995. This does not represent
massive overbuilding, but does signal that
the amount of building is likely to slow so
as to more closely match absorption of new
space (Exhibit 3).

Estimates of personal income for Arizona
show year-over-year increases of less than six
percent for the first half (Exhibit 4). That
compares to an 8.5% increase in last year’s
fourth quarter and an increase of almost eight
percent for all of last year. We believe that
the first-half estimates are seriously understated, since they do not include estimates
for wages from the unemployment insurance
program. Wage and salary disbursements
showed an increase of 11.3% during last
year’s second half, but less than 7.5% in the
first half of 1999, according to the published
data. Layoffs in the copper mining industry
will have a noticeable impact, but not until
the second half.
Moreover, personal income nationwide
was recently revised significantly upward
for the entire decade of the 1990’s. The new
national estimate for 1998 is some three
percent higher than original estimates. If
applied to Arizona, that could mean an upward boost of $3 billion in BEA’s next round
of revisions, due to be released in April. We
are forecasting an increase for personal
income in excess of seven percent for all of
1999, significantly higher than the reported
numbers to date.
The questionable estimates for personal
income also affect estimates of wages per
worker. After sizable increases in the 6.0-7.0%
range during last year’s second half, gains of
less than 4.0% are indicated for 1999’s first
PA GE TH RE E

EXHIBIT 6
Current Estimates are Implausibly Low

EXHIBIT 7
Growth Moderates but No Recession

Business Services Job Growth, Arizona

Wage & Salary Job Growth, Arizona

half. We do not believe that the sub-4.0%
increases are indicative of current wage
inflation, which is probably a point or two
higher. For all of 1997, the most recent year
for which the Federal Bureau of Economic
Analysis provides data, wages per worker
increased by 4.8% statewide, 5.3% in Metro
Phoenix and 3.2% in Metro Tucson.
Yet another measure that is signaling a
slower pace is job growth. During the 12month period ending in September, the number of nonag jobs stood 3.7% above totals
for the prior 12-month period. One year ago,
that same measure was showing five percent
growth. In absolute terms, only 67,000 new
jobs were created during the past year, compared to 98,000 the year before. There are
at least two reasons to believe that current
estimates understate actual job creation.
First, estimates for government employment showed virtually no growth during the
first half of 1999 when compared to the prior
year. Given that population growth remains
at decade highs, no increase in government
payrolls is highly implausible. Within the
subcategories of Government, the number
of teachers shows virtually no growth from
mid-98 to mid-99. Then in the third quarter,
the numbers jump by eight to nine percent.
That boosts total government employment
growth into the 4.5-5.0% range (Exhibit 5).
Difficulty in counting teachers is no doubt
due to a number of challenges including
PA GE F OU R

DURING THE 1990’S,
THE METRO PHOENIX
ECONOMY HAS EXPERIENCED
AN UNBELIEVABLE SURGE
OF GROWTH AND
NEW ACTIVITY.
METRO TUCSON HAS GROWN
RAPIDLY AS WELL,
BUT ONLY HALF AS FAST.
AS 1999 COMES TO AN END,
METRO PHOENIX
IS LOSING MOMENTUM,
WHILE TUCSON’S
ECONOMY ACCELERATES.

growth in charter schools, adoption of year
around classes, changes in the start and end
of semesters and changes from semesters to
quarters. It appears that somewhere along
the way a number of teachers weren’t
counted, ergo, job growth is being seriously
understated.
A second sector that looks suspicious is
business services. Here, job growth has fallen
from 5.5% for all of 1998 to zero growth
in early 1999. That’s less than experienced
during the last recession earlier this decade.
This doesn’t seem plausible. Traditionally,
this is a sector that is subject to significant
upward revisions, due to a large number of
rapidly growing small companies that are not
counted by current survey methods. Given
that many of the New Economy’s jobs fall
in this sector, we can expect large upward
revisions here (Exhibit 6).
Following next February’s revisions, employment numbers should show considerably
more growth than is being currently reported.
As such, our estimated job growth for 1999
is a much stronger 4.2% compared to the
3.5% or so that is contained in the official
statistics. Our estimates show some 85,00090,000 new jobs, statewide, for all of 1999.
In short, signs of slowing are few, and
when the employment and personal income
data are revised, they will show that Arizona’s
economy continued to grow at a rapid rate
during 1999.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

EXHIBIT 8
Growth Gap has Vanished
Wage & Salary Job Growth, Phoenix-Mesa & Tucson MAs

THE OUTLOOK: SLOWER
GROWTH AHEAD
Our models suggest that the stronger
growth of this year will give way to a slower
pace in 2000. Here are the main reasons:
• Consolidation and accompanying cuts in
the copper mining industry will subtract
3,000-plus high-paying jobs.
• Construction activity will peak as commercial construction declines, housing
affordability declines due to higher home
prices and mortgage rates, and from
uncertainty regarding the threat of growth
boundaries. As a result, construction will
subtract from growth for the first time
since 1991.
• Inflation will rise, thus reducing
purchasing power of wage gains.
• Fed policy will restrict availability of
credit by boosting interest rates.
• Corporate profits will come under
increasing pressure, which will usher in
a new round of downsizing and layoffs.
• The stock market will sell off.
• As job growth weakens and increases to
wealth diminish, consumer confidence
will fall and spending will dwindle. Auto
sales will retreat from record levels.
This is not a disaster scenario but rather
a soft landing as the highflying economy
AR IZON A 'S E CON O MY

slows to a growth rate more in line with its
long-run potential. Unless there is some unforeseen shock, no recession should ensue
(Exhibit 7).
Arizona’s nonag employment is expected
to grow by 65-70,000, or 3.1% next year.
Population growth slows from over 140,000
new residents this year to fewer than 130,000.
The largest effect is on consumers whose
spending for retail goods moderates to a
3.5% gain, compared to over eight percent
in 1999. Homebuilding settles to less than
50,000 units compared to the record 64,000
this year (see forecast table on page 7).

METRO UPDATE AND OUTLOOK
Arizona’s two largest metro areas continue
to march to the beat of different drummers.
During the 1990’s, the Metro Phoenixeconomy
has experienced an unbelievable surge of
growth and new activity. Metro Tucson has
grown rapidly as well, but only half as fast.
As 1999 comes to an end, Metro Phoenix is
losing momentum, while Tucson’s economy
accelerates. The result is more than just a
narrowing between growth rates; job growth
comparisons have actually swung in favor
of Tucson in recent months (Exhibit 8).
A swell of export-oriented employment in
Tucson, primarily in aerospace, teleservices,
and optics has been accompanied by the
largest surge of population in recent memory.
The increase of new residents is estimated at

more than 50,000 during the past two years.
Over 15,000 new nonag jobs were created
in 1999. The homebuilding industry has
responded by building roughly 7,000 new
single-family homes and another 1,700
multifamily units this year. (Counts do not
include building in southern Pinal County,
which is technically part of the Phoenix-Mesa
metro area.) Combined, that’s the largest
number since 1986.
Job growth is expected to slow to roughly
10,000 in 2000, and population increases
will fall back below 20,000 per year. Retail
sales gains will moderate into the neighborhood of six percent, and homebuilding will
run about a thousand units less. The following year should bring further slowing of
similar magnitude.
Metro Phoenix’s semiconductors and electronic components sectors grew significantly
during the decade, but also suffered during
the Asian crisis that reduced Arizona’s exports
by over $2 billion. The economy’s rapid
growth absorbed underutilized commercial
real estate that was built in the 1980s so that
by 1996, additional construction was justified.
During the past three years, Phoenix has experienced a boom in commercial construction
even greater in magnitude than in the 1980s.
However, during the past year, construction
awards have fallen significantly as the result
of reduced flows of financing into commercial
projects. As those projects are completed,
commercial building will decline. In addition,
as job growth slows and population grows
more slowly, residential building will decline
as well.
Due to declining exports, manufacturing
jobs in Metro Phoenix have been flat for
nearly two years. Now that exports are increasing, we anticipate some modest growth in
this sector once again.
We expect population growth to slow from
97,000 in 1999 to 84,000 in the year 2000.
The Metro Phoenix area will generate 42,000
new jobs next year, compared to 59,000 in
1999. Around 8,000 apartment and 27,500
single-family permits are expected, both down
by a fourth. Retail sales will moderate to a
5.5-6.0% gain. All these measures reflect
a growing and healthy economy.
The 1990’s brought an unprecedented surge
of growth to Arizona and its metro areas.
PAG E FIVE

Arizona’s population swelled by 1.25 million
and will surpass five million next year. Metro
Phoenix (Maricopa County and recent addition Pinal County) added nearly 840,000
and surpassed the three million mark in
early 1999, while Metro Tucson added nearly
200,000 for a mid-1999 count of almost
850,000. Three additional counties were
anointed metropolitan status during the
decade: Yuma, Coconino (the Flagstaff metropolitan area) and Mohave (which joined
the Las Vegas metro area).
The new millennium promises to bring
more of the same. Questions for the next
decade revolve around how Arizona will grow.
Can Arizona be a significant player in the
high-tech economy of the future? Will Arizona’s
workforce have the skills to be employed in
information-age jobs? How will growth be
accommodated—both physically and fiscally?
Will educational initiatives for public education (K-12, community colleges, universities
and job training) receive needed funding?
Where will people live, and how will taxpayers pay for needed infrastructure? Will
all Arizonaans have the opportunity to
share in the state’s growing prosperity?
Given the recent prosperity and resources
of this state, there is no reason to believe
that these questions can’t be addressed and
resolved expediently. $

S P O N S O R S

Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee
Arizona Portland Cement
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One Arizona
CB Richard Ellis
City of Tucson
Coldwell Banker Success Realty
Elliott D. Pollack and Company
Estes/Kaufman and Broad
Merrill Lynch
Northern Trust Bank of Arizona
Pima County
Salt River Project
Territorial Newspapers
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Healthcare Council
Tucson Newspapers
U S WEST Communications
U S WEST Dex
PAGE SIX

TUCSON
ONE OF 31
“AMERICAN
COMMUNITY
SURVEY”
COMPARISON SITES

T

he American Community Survey
(ACS) is a new survey developed
by the Census Bureau as part of the
decennial Census. The Survey is 24 pages long and it is mailed to an “individual
address” not “a person.” An individual address has a chance of selection only once
in a five-year period. Information from the ACS will help federal agencies, state
governments, and local communities by providing comparable demographic and
economic profiles for small geographic areas and population groups every year
instead of once every ten years. The Bureau of the Census expects the ACS to replace
the long form in the 2010 Census so that the focus of the 2010 Census will be solely
on counting the population.
The ACS is being implemented in three phases:

1
■

A demonstration period 1996-1998. In 1996, ACS began in four sites. In
1997, the survey was conducted in eight sites to evaluate costs, procedures,
and new ways to use the information. In 1998, the ACS was expanded to
include two counties in South Carolina that overlapped with counties in
the Census 2000 Dress Rehearsal.

2
■

In 1999, the number of sites in the sample increased to 31 comparison sites.
In November 1998, Tucson became one of the 31 American Community
Survey Comparison Sites. The comparison with Census 2000 is designed to
collect several kinds of information necessary to understand the differences
between the 1999-2001 American Community Surveys and the Census
2000 long form.

3 In 2003 full implementation nationwide.
■
In the year 2000, an address should not receive both the American Community
Survey and the Census 2000 long form. Less than one percent of households will
receive both the American Community Survey and the Census 2000 short form (that
is, the form with six population questions and one housing question that every household is asked to complete). It is important that both the Census 2000 questionnaire
and the American Community Survey questionnaire be completed and returned.
It is required by law and the respondent’s confidentiality is strictly protected by law.
For more information on the American Community
Survey (ACS), go to the Census Web Site at: www.census.gov

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

F O R E C A S T

Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

T A B L E S

1999
116,479.9
7.1
24,051.2
3.9
49,564.3
8.9
4,843.0
3.0
96.8
2,165.3
4.2
375.0
1.1
150.9
7.1
213.1
-1.8
1,790.3
4.9
521.5
4.0
662.4
5.8

2000
124,252.1
6.7
24,989.0
3.9
51,417.3
3.7
4,972.3
2.7
82.5
2,231.4
3.1
374.6
-0.1
149.6
-0.8
215.1
0.9
1,856.8
3.7
538.4
3.2
693.8
4.7

2001
131,935.1
6.2
25,918.8
3.7
53,195.6
3.5
5,090.3
2.4
74.6
2,286.2
2.5
374.8
0.0
143.8
-3.9
220.9
2.7
1,911.4
2.9
555.1
3.1
720.4
3.8

2002
139,362.0
5.6
26,779.9
3.3
55,828.0
4.9
5,204.0
2.2
72.9
2,339.0
2.3
376.5
0.5
140.4
-2.4
226.0
2.3
1,962.5
2.7
572.3
3.1
744.2
3.3

2003
146,710.7
5.3
27,591.8
3.0
58,540.2
4.9
5,317.2
2.2
73.8
2,396.5
2.5
384.2
2.0
140.6
0.2
233.5
3.3
2,012.3
2.5
587.3
2.6
766.9
3.0

2004
154,401.4
5.2
28,420.8
3.0
61,144.9
4.4
5,432.7
2.2
75.9
2,457.7
2.6
395.4
2.9
143.6
2.2
241.6
3.5
2,062.2
2.5
601.4
2.4
790.0
3.0

2005
162,785.2
5.4
29,326.8
3.2
63,874.5
4.5
5,550.7
2.2
78.8
2,527.7
2.9
408.0
3.2
147.5
2.7
250.2
3.6
2,119.7
2.8
617.5
2.7
817.4
3.5

Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1999
81,530.6
7.9
26,749.2
4.5
34,190.6
8.7
3,048.0
3.3
67.7
1,514.7
4.1
274.4
-0.4
108.7
5.0
160.7
-3.1
1,240.3
5.1
374.8
4.9
480.5
5.4

2000
87,822.9
7.7
28,043.4
4.8
36,102.4
5.6
3,131.7
2.7
53.0
1,556.7
2.8
276.0
0.6
106.4
-2.0
165.7
3.1
1,280.7
3.3
387.1
3.3
495.1
3.0

2001
93,708.6
6.7
29,186.0
4.1
37,075.6
2.7
3,210.7
2.5
47.2
1,589.5
2.1
277.7
0.6
101.1
-5.0
172.7
4.3
1,311.8
2.4
397.0
2.5
508.0
2.6

2002
99,418.7
6.1
30,236.2
3.6
39,246.0
5.9
3,288.1
2.4
45.1
1,622.2
2.1
277.7
0.0
97.3
-3.8
176.6
2.2
1,344.5
2.5
409.3
3.1
519.0
2.2

2003
105,814.7
6.4
31,427.8
3.9
41,999.6
7.0
3,366.9
2.4
46.3
1,660.5
2.4
282.6
1.8
96.6
-0.7
182.2
3.2
1,377.8
2.5
422.2
3.1
528.6
1.9

2004
112,563.7
6.4
32,641.1
3.9
44,425.9
5.8
3,448.5
2.4
48.5
1,703.1
2.6
290.9
2.9
98.8
2.3
188.2
3.3
1,412.2
2.5
434.5
2.9
539.5
2.1

2005
119,742.5
6.4
33,893.2
3.8
46,793.3
5.3
3,532.9
2.4
50.6
1,750.6
2.8
300.6
3.3
102.3
3.5
194.4
3.3
1,450.0
2.7
447.4
3.0
552.3
2.4

Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1999
18,999.7
7.4
22,464.3
4.6
7,807.8
7.5
845.8
2.7
17.6
345.6
4.6
54.8
6.4
21.8
6.6
31.1
8.3
290.9
4.3
73.1
2.7
112.0
5.5

2000
20,316.9
6.9
23,472.3
4.5
8,260.5
5.8
865.6
2.3
15.5
355.4
2.8
56.1
2.4
22.6
3.5
31.9
2.5
299.3
2.9
75.7
3.5
115.8
3.4

2001
21,638.6
6.5
24,507.2
4.4
8,676.8
5.0
883.0
2.0
12.9
364.4
2.5
56.6
0.9
22.7
0.6
32.2
1.0
307.7
2.8
78.2
3.3
119.9
3.6

2002
22,860.1
5.6
25,422.1
3.7
9,116.9
5.1
899.2
1.8
11.7
371.3
1.9
56.8
0.4
22.6
-0.7
32.5
1.0
314.5
2.2
80.5
2.9
123.0
2.6

2003
24,091.9
5.4
26,341.4
3.6
9,540.4
4.6
914.6
1.7
10.8
377.8
1.8
57.1
0.4
22.4
-0.5
32.8
0.9
320.8
2.0
82.4
2.4
125.7
2.2

2004
25,323.4
5.1
27,240.0
3.4
9,942.9
4.2
929.6
1.6
10.3
383.7
1.5
57.5
0.7
22.5
0.3
33.1
0.8
326.2
1.7
84.0
2.0
127.9
1.8

2005
26,651.2
5.2
28,199.1
3.5
10,364.3
4.2
945.1
1.7
10.7
391.0
1.9
58.1
1.1
22.8
1.3
33.3
0.8
332.9
2.1
85.7
2.0
130.9
2.3

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurants & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Eller College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE SEVEN

A R I Z O N A

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Fin/ance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JUN
99

JUL
99

AUG
99

SEP
99

OCT
99

75,275
50,000
25,275
33.6

77,650
48,975
28,675
36.9

78,000
46,325
31,675
40.6

75,950
50,600
25,350
33.4

71,075
51,775
19,300
27.2

6.5
6.3
6.9
0.4

8.3
9.1
6.1
-2.5

40,375
n/a
2,800
2,350
1,800
11,000
1,175
7,875
13,375

39,475
n/a
2,900
2,275
1,725
10,625
1,150
7,775
13,025

39,775
n/a
2,850
2,300
1,700
10,625
1,150
7,725
13,425

41,225
n/a
2,850
2,325
1,725
11,025
1,175
7,725
14,400

42,525
n/a
2,825
2,325
1,800
11,450
1,200
8,025
14,900

6.8
n/a
14.1
5.7
1.4
5.0
0.0
0.9
12.0

9.2
n/a
11.9
11.5
1.8
2.4
0.2
-2.0
25.2

73,445
59,189
7,414
6,842
5,920
17,978

67,312
53,223
7,654
6,435
5,448
14,858

67,461
51,970
6,935
8,556
7,129
15,558

72,153
56,097
7,382
8,674
7,423
14,634

...
...
...
...
...
...

5.4
0.2
14.7
44.3
28.2
4.8

7.5
6.4
9.8
13.8
20.0
-1.1

24,213
9,805
3,325
11,083

12,423
4,731
3,272
4,420

10,268
7,324
2,067
877

13,472
5,328
5,961
2,183

22,102
8,673
11,149
2,280

35.1
1.0
45.0
2,680.5

-14.2
-3.4
-34.8
1.6

107
107

54
54

89
78

66
66

144
64

48.5
-34.0

16.6
7.4

73,450
69,875
3,575
4.9

73,575
70,300
3,275
4.5

74,600
71,225
3,375
4.5

74,350
71,200
3,150
4.2

73,625
70,700
2,925
4.0

6.1
6.3
0.9
-4.9

7.7
8.0
2.5
-5.0

42,275
n/a
3,325
3,675
2,025
13,275
1,525
10,550
7,725

42,250
n/a
3,450
3,625
2,000
13,200
1,525
10,650
7,625

42,575
n/a
3,550
3,575
2,050
13,100
1,525
10,600
8,000

42,825
n/a
3,650
3,575
2,050
13,075
1,475
10,575
8,250

42,900
n/a
3,550
3,600
2,050
13,175
1,525
10,675
8,175

2.9
n/a
8.4
-2.0
-1.2
1.0
1.7
3.9
7.2

2.6
n/a
8.1
4.2
-1.2
4.2
-0.1
2.5
-0.9

102,616
77,590
12,861
12,165
10,526
22,812

99,628
71,632
14,028
13,968
11,825
20,708

93,912
68,043
12,113
13,756
11,462
20,550

90,934
67,475
11,572
11,887
10,172
22,161

...
...
...
...
...
...

6.1
4.4
5.5
18.1
4.9
16.1

8.2
9.5
9.0
0.2
3.5
23.6

20,458
17,476
1,805
1,177

23,285
17,584
2,438
3,263

23,232
16,148
3,978
3,106

57,097
15,369
3,216
38,512

56,090
13,984
7,685
34,421

166.5
-7.6
295.5
766.6

-8.1
13.4
-59.6
12.1

189
189

178
168

177
169

160
160

143
141

-8.9
-10.2

10.3
11.3

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table

PAGE EIGHT

AR I ZO NA 'S EC ONO M Y

A R I Z O N A

COCHISE-SANTA CRUZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
GILA-GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JUN
99

JUL
99

AUG
99

SEP
99

OCT
99

54,450
50,150
4,300
7.9

56,175
50,775
5,400
9.6

56,375
50,475
5,900
10.5

57,700
51,775
5,925
10.3

56,625
51,600
5,025
8.9

5.6
8.0
-13.7
-18.3

2.8
4.5
-12.5
-15.1

42,125
n/a
2,250
2,300
2,425
11,475
1,025
9,775
12,875

42,425
n/a
2,500
2,375
2,400
11,375
1,000
9,950
12,825

42,825
n/a
2,550
2,300
2,375
11,425
975
9,725
13,475

43,775
n/a
2,600
2,425
2,350
11,425
1,025
9,875
14,075

44,250
n/a
2,625
2,450
2,350
11,850
1,025
10,075
13,875

7.6
n/a
25.0
5.4
1.1
4.4
-2.4
8.9
9.0

2.4
n/a
11.5
9.8
1.6
-0.6
0.2
4.6
1.3

77,471
59,514
8,720
9,237
7,993
18,052

76,826
57,361
8,668
10,797
9,140
19,069

76,308
56,088
9,084
11,136
9,279
17,918

77,350
58,838
8,301
10,211
8,738
17,634

...
...
...
...
...
...

14.4
11.4
5.9
46.4
30.0
30.3

9.0
5.5
3.5
45.4
50.8
35.7

11,202
8,945
1,598
659

19,732
6,430
1,824
11,478

21,256
5,868
746
14,642

12,429
7,025
1,045
4,359

34,889
7,372
22,023
5,494

172.9
14.8
279.2
895.3

28.8
-2.6
70.4
70.9

86
86

78
67

71
71

81
81

76
76

7.0
7.0

2.7
6.7

34,500
32,000
2,500
7.2

34,525
31,975
2,550
7.4

34,375
31,850
2,525
7.3

35,300
32,775
2,525
7.2

35,000
32,700
2,300
6.6

5.7
7.1
-10.7
-15.5

2.2
2.7
-4.0
-5.9

25,825
n/a
1,975
n/a
800
5,900
n/a
4,575
7,325

25,575
n/a
1,950
n/a
775
5,875
n/a
4,550
7,225

25,775
n/a
1,975
n/a
775
5,925
n/a
4,625
7,325

26,475
n/a
2,000
n/a
775
5,925
n/a
4,550
8,050

26,775
n/a
2,100
n/a
750
6,125
n/a
4,500
8,125

6.6
n/a
10.5
n/a
-9.1
7.5
n/a
4.7
13.2

0.7
n/a
11.5
n/a
-5.4
1.8
n/a
3.8
-1.9

45,140
34,288
5,896
4,956
4,288
13,691

46,236
34,136
6,288
5,812
4,920
5,765

45,797
34,184
6,051
5,562
4,634
9,514

42,791
32,283
5,352
5,156
4,412
3,203

...
...
...
...
...
...

4.2
1.6
11.3
14.7
1.9
-69.3

3.0
0.7
4.3
20.0
23.6
-20.9

9,496
7,039
51
2,406

9,977
3,821
1,775
4,381

16,680
4,830
320
11,530

11,490
5,268
1,815
4,407

12,698
6,164
2,326
4,208

5.2
32.4
-60.5
177.0

-2.1
-3.9
-34.5
75.8

51
49

35
35

43
39

42
38

43
43

13.2
13.2

-9.6
-3.3

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table

A R IZO N A' S ECO N OMY

PAGE NINE

A R I Z O N A

APACHE-NAVAJO REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JUN
99

JUL
99

AUG
99

SEP
99

OCT
99

52,975
44,450
8,525
16.1

53,725
44,850
8,875
16.5

52,200
44,350
7,850
15.0

51,350
45,500
5,850
11.4

49,750
44,475
5,275
10.6

-1.3
1.1
-17.6
-16.5

0.9
2.1
-5.7
-6.6

42,700
n/a
1,975
1,500
2,475
8,125
1,150
7,550
18,975

42,750
n/a
1,925
1,500
2,550
8,075
1,150
7,425
19,175

42,525
n/a
1,975
1,500
2,500
8,025
1,150
7,425
19,000

43,975
n/a
2,000
1,500
2,500
7,900
1,175
7,400
20,550

43,675
n/a
1,950
1,500
2,550
7,650
1,050
7,400
20,650

0.7
n/a
-1.3
-1.6
3.0
0.7
-4.5
8.0
-1.3

0.0
n/a
-2.1
0.0
2.5
3.8
-2.6
1.7
-1.9

74,164
58,377
6,857
8,930
7,727
12,920

72,796
54,293
7,617
10,886
9,216
14,025

71,726
54,889
6,379
10,458
8,714
13,244

70,536
54,477
6,237
9,822
8,405
13,896

...
...
...
...
...
...

11.6
6.6
1.1
64.4
46.0
0.1

7.5
6.6
1.8
18.2
20.5
30.4

11,565
6,019
1,500
4,046

22,372
9,077
7,500
5,795

22,914
7,016
11,594
4,304

57,713
13,639
22,119
21,955

16,264
5,720
5,774
4,770

69.7
-10.1
6,941.5
51.9

38.4
48.4
35.9
24.6

62
62

80
80

62
62

132
132

61
61

1.7
15.1

36.7
54.1

132,425
125,600
6,825
5.2

133,525
126,375
7,150
5.4

132,925
126,550
6,375
4.8

134,150
128,500
5,650
4.2

135,625
130,650
4,975
3.7

7.5
8.1
-6.6
-13.1

5.2
6.0
-9.6
-14.1

104,325
1,075
7,175
6,600
3,475
27,400
3,375
30,175
25,050

104,300
1,050
7,275
6,350
3,550
27,525
3,375
30,450
24,725

104,350
1,075
7,425
6,425
3,475
27,725
3,350
30,375
24,500

107,600
1,075
7,425
6,325
3,425
27,550
3,350
30,075
28,375

108,650
1,025
7,475
6,225
3,525
27,450
3,275
30,275
29,400

8.2
5.1
12.4
-3.5
6.0
3.5
3.1
9.0
15.2

5.4
7.6
6.0
-0.1
3.2
3.9
6.1
7.6
5.9

213,020
155,037
39,084
18,899
16,353
55,052

212,135
150,538
38,878
22,719
19,234
51,988

202,162
142,973
35,839
23,350
19,455
54,720

203,462
145,363
37,374
20,725
17,735
60,532

...
...
...
...
...
...

12.1
9.0
8.7
49.9
33.1
26.2

7.7
6.3
5.6
25.5
28.1
16.5

73,723
34,674
14,131
24,918

46,152
34,231
6,793
5,128

45,418
28,711
7,431
9,276

45,131
33,787
3,356
7,988

62,213
21,949
11,245
29,019

70.9
-7.0
68.5
372.7

-3.8
-7.8
-7.8
13.5

421
299

366
258

270
256

310
240

218
205

14.1
10.8

3.3
4.1

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table

PAGE TEN

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj.
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

JUN
99

JUL
99

AUG
99

SEP
99

OCT
99

1,597.3
1,546.9
50.4
3.1

1,601.1
1,549.5
51.6
3.0

1,605.0
1,553.0
52.0
3.0

1,605.9
1,556.1
49.8
2.7

1,600.8
1,554.8
46.0
2.8

3.6
3.6
3.3
12.0

6.3
6.1
13.0
11.4

1,495.2
5.5
114.7
170.7
131.1
39.6
79.6
362.3
92.1
270.2
123.2
464.3
174.9

1,484.3
3.3
116.1
170.2
130.8
39.4
79.3
360.5
91.8
268.7
124.1
462.8
168.0

1,491.0
3.0
116.6
170.3
130.9
39.4
79.4
362.0
92.1
269.9
124.4
464.7
170.6

1,513.8
2.9
115.4
170.2
130.7
39.5
80.0
364.9
92.5
272.4
124.3
466.5
189.6

1,532.0
2.9
115.9
170.1
130.6
39.5
80.4
369.1
92.0
277.1
125.6
471.3
196.7

3.2
-48.2
5.7
-0.3
-0.1
-1.0
4.8
3.9
2.9
4.3
4.1
3.1
4.1

3.7
-17.7
9.0
0.6
0.7
0.1
6.9
3.6
4.5
3.3
6.6
2.9
3.4

2,943,295
2,133,639
361,549
317,539
130,568
705,431

2,661,343
1,899,791
342,651
286,922
131,979
638,894

2,639,681
1,864,821
348,404
287,668
138,788
620,210

2,798,099
1,998,398
359,457
309,479
130,765
641,118

...
...
...
...
...
...

10.7
12.0
2.4
11.9
11.9
7.5

9.1
10.1
5.9
8.0
7.0
12.3

752,005
482,756
202,101
67,148

722,577
470,391
124,666
127,520

754,218
411,002
234,267
108,949

646,713
436,707
142,296
67,710

549,427
342,959
151,545
54,923

-34.5
-27.0
-40.2
-52.6

-12.6
0.2
-39.2
-3.7

5,138
4,061
16
1,061

3,761
3,285
34
442

3,686
3,195
35
456

3,930
3,050
58
822

...
...
...
...

-4.7
4.8
-19.4
-28.1

5.1
12.7
29.8
-17.9

849,205
5,258
161,507

921,472
5,881
156,686

761,689
4,761
159,985

654,891
4,212
155,482

759,417
4,939
153,759

15.6
7.7
7.3

18.8
12.3
5.7

2,836,906
46,372

2,846,197
45,709

2,751,666
46,032

...
...

...
...

4.9
6.0

3.8
4.3

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

III
98

IV
98

I
99

II
99

III
99

2,962.9
7.1
12.6
5.5
17.4

2,989.1
7.2
12.7
5.5
19.1

3,013.4
7.3
12.8
5.6
17.0

3,036.3
7.4
13.0
5.6
15.5

3,057.9
7.5
13.1
5.6
14.2

3.2
5.5
4.3
2.7
-18.5

3.4
5.0
3.9
2.3
-9.1

76,341
57,148
3,990
-147
12,724
10,607
25,766

77,785
58,282
4,055
-147
12,934
10,770
26,023

79,299
59,508
4,124
-147
13,179
10,883
26,315

80,739
60,618
4,188
-146
13,386
11,069
26,592

82,240
61,749
4,254
-146
13,618
11,272
26,894

7.7
8.1
6.6
1.2
7.0
6.3
4.4

8.3
8.6
7.1
0.5
8.0
6.0
4.9

PAGE ELEVEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj.
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

JUN
99

JUL
99

AUG
99

SEP
99

OCT
99

394.9
383.8
11.1
2.7

393.8
378.8
15.0
3.6

399.7
385.5
14.2
3.4

402.5
389.1
13.4
3.0

403.0
390.9
12.1
2.9

5.8
5.4
23.7
31.8

6.2
6.3
4.5
0.9

334.3
2.1
22.0
30.5
24.6
5.9
13.6
71.0
11.0
60.0
13.4
110.1
71.6

326.9
1.9
22.4
30.8
24.8
6.0
13.7
70.2
10.9
59.3
13.3
109.6
65.0

333.3
1.9
22.7
30.8
25.0
5.8
13.8
70.0
10.9
59.1
13.5
110.5
70.1

341.0
1.9
22.6
30.7
25.0
5.7
14.1
70.3
11.0
59.3
13.5
111.5
76.4

347.2
1.9
22.4
31.0
25.3
5.7
14.1
71.3
11.0
60.3
13.7
112.9
79.9

4.9
-9.5
9.3
5.1
7.7
-5.0
4.4
0.4
-0.9
0.7
0.7
5.0
9.0

3.6
-6.9
8.8
3.5
4.3
0.6
0.5
1.7
0.8
1.9
4.1
4.7
3.3

682,358
478,368
89,795
74,286
39,909
136,817

617,411
424,189
85,101
68,365
39,756
120,136

591,069
403,383
86,530
64,671
36,485
127,145

632,072
433,730
89,275
73,429
35,638
118,901

...
...
...
...
...
...

10.6
11.2
3.7
11.9
20.1
22.3

7.6
8.1
5.9
5.0
11.8
21.4

121,824
73,905
24,318
23,601

124,744
53,374
20,378
50,992

94,235
60,792
19,176
14,267

127,728
58,297
61,160
8,271

81,615
49,100
19,982
12,533

-28.5
-38.7
4.0
-15.3

-13.9
-21.3
-19.1
58.8

707
579
20
108

631
580
19
32

394
375
4
15

587
540
5
42

...
...
...
...

14.4
6.1
25.0
...

27.3
12.6
123.5
272.4

193,005
1,208
159,772

156,206
1,050
148,768

148,531
1,027
144,626

120,892
865
139,759

123,805
865
143,127

21.4
10.9
9.5

21.5
14.0
6.6

278,974
22,465

276,578
22,426

264,288
23,023

254,945
20,533

300,908
23,221

5.6
-13.7

0.8
10.3

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

III
98

IV
98

I
99

II
99

III
99

826.4
1.1
2.9
1.7
4.6

832.6
1.1
2.9
1.8
5.1

837.9
1.1
2.9
1.8
4.3

843.0
1.1
2.9
1.8
4.0

848.0
1.1
2.9
1.8
4.0

2.6
-5.3
1.6
6.0
-14.3

2.8
-4.3
1.2
4.7
-23.6

17,856
11,246
795
207
3,709
3,490
21,607

18,179
11,491
811
212
3,748
3,540
21,836

18,514
11,772
830
220
3,774
3,577
22,094

18,835
12,003
845
224
3,819
3,634
22,343

19,160
12,224
860
228
3,868
3,698
22,594

7.3
8.7
8.1
10.3
4.3
6.0
4.6

7.5
9.1
8.6
12.9
4.1
6.0
4.5

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table
PAGE TWELVE

AR I ZO NA 'S EC ONO M Y

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj.
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Transportation
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
Schools
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Copper Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s)
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JUN
99

JUL
99

AUG
99

SEP
99

OCT
99

2,415.2
2,302.7
112.5
4.3

2,424.0
2,301.5
122.5
4.4

2,437.3
2,313.4
123.9
4.5

2,437.2
2,325.5
111.7
4.0

2,425.5
2,327.6
97.9
4.0

4.3
4.4
2.6
14.3

6.1
6.1
5.4
3.5

2,130.9
12.6
157.4
219.3
168.1
51.2
106.3
68.7
512.4
114.7
397.7
145.4
648.7
328.8
44.6
284.2
138.4
40.3

2,110.9
10.4
159.4
218.8
167.8
51.0
105.9
68.2
509.1
114.4
394.7
146.3
646.1
314.9
44.6
270.3
124.4
40.4

2,126.4
10.0
160.8
218.8
168.1
50.7
106.2
68.4
510.0
113.8
396.2
146.9
649.0
324.7
44.6
280.1
136.6
40.3

2,164.6
9.8
159.5
218.8
168.1
50.7
107.1
69.1
513.5
114.5
399.0
147.0
651.7
357.2
44.1
313.1
170.3
40.6

2,191.4
9.9
159.6
218.8
168.1
50.7
107.2
69.2
519.0
114.4
404.6
148.6
658.2
370.1
44.4
325.7
179.3
40.8

3.7
-21.4
6.4
0.2
0.9
-2.1
3.8
4.2
3.3
2.8
3.5
4.5
3.3
6.5
0.9
7.3
7.7
2.0

3.6
-10.1
9.4
0.9
1.1
0.3
5.3
6.2
3.4
4.1
3.2
5.5
3.7
2.4
0.6
2.7
2.5
-1.0

17.40
14.29
12.63
17.46
11.65
13.44

17.56
14.38
12.69
17.76
11.67
13.49

17.50
14.45
12.69
18.10
11.67
13.86

20.34
14.48
12.64
18.07
11.72
13.64

20.26
14.52
12.65
17.77
11.69
13.35

17.3
2.5
1.9
2.8
-0.1
2.1

3.2
-0.2
4.5
1.1
0.8
0.9

4,306,921
3,056,002
546,757
472,657
231,506
200,316
459,915
195,105
72,369
288,073
982,753
73,325
115,575

3,944,112
2,745,163
518,177
438,420
242,351
205,174
548,144
191,152
60,957
257,465
885,443
75,462
108,239

3,880,061
2,676,351
526,878
428,740
248,092
206,709
520,151
191,730
42,041
257,218
878,859
88,347
82,728

4,082,258
2,846,661
543,592
459,126
232,878
199,280
539,935
195,413
42,764
279,170
892,079
75,544
119,384

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

11.0
11.0
6.9
11.2
20.1
6.7
5.3
16.3
24.6
7.1
9.8
-12.8
8.4

8.9
9.2
8.3
7.2
10.7
14.9
2.8
14.4
11.1
3.3
13.7
-17.1
4.6

1,024,486
640,619
248,829
135,038

981,262
599,639
168,646
212,977

988,221
541,691
279,579
166,951

971,773
575,420
240,968
155,385

835,298
455,921
231,729
147,648

-21.3
-25.9
-22.9
1.2

-9.7
-2.3
-34.7
19.1

6,819
5,309
61
1,449

5,067
4,478
83
506

4,788
4,153
55
580

5,162
4,188
86
888

...
...
...
...

-1.3
5.2
-11.3
-23.0

7.8
12.3
18.4
-9.4

2,173
1,772
25
376

1,792
1,419
23
349

1,921
1,566
15
340

1,792
1,434
14
344

1,776
1,412
18
346

-20.3
-23.5
-52.6
0.9

-6.5
-5.6
-29.8
-8.6

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table

AR IZ ON A 'S E CON OMY

PAGE THIRTEEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual ($) EBR

I N D I C A T O R S

III
98

IV
98

I
99

II
99

III
99

4,718.8
10.0
19.4
9.4
25.5

4,754.3
10.6
20.1
9.5
24.9

4,789.8
10.0
20.1
10.1
25.5

4,825.3
10.1
20.2
10.0
24.8

4,859.9
10.1
20.2
10.0
23.7

3.0
1.6
4.0
6.5
-7.1

3.0
4.3
5.0
5.7
3.8

110,039
78,461
5,485
280
18,654
18,130

112,849
80,796
5,624
298
19,058
18,320

113,574
81,218
5,663
298
19,018
18,702

115,502
82,724
5,752
300
19,322
18,908

117,384
83,986
5,827
302
19,633
19,290

6.7
7.0
6.2
8.0
5.2
6.4

8.1
8.9
7.7
8.4
6.8
5.8

64,743
5,997
7,683
296
7,387
23,320
30,401

66,629
6,135
7,987
416
7,571
23,736
31,114

65,812
5,962
8,145
318
7,827
23,712
30,527

67,346
6,080
8,277
236
8,041
23,937
30,955

...
...
...
...
...
24,153
...

7.1
3.2
7.7
-44.3
10.7
3.6
3.6

9.3
5.1
8.3
-14.5
9.5
5.0
5.1

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA
JUN
99
Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles

JUL
99

AUG
99

SEP
99

OCT
99

Sources and abbreviations:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
ASU: Arizona State University, College of Business,
Research Centers
PA GE F OU RT EEN

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

2,524,983
219,457
790,288
1,515,238
166,206
26,348
96,414
43,444

2,574,926
190,234
895,958
1,488,734
157,721
25,269
92,242
40,210

2,508,480
182,235
803,110
1,523,135
149,928
24,968
84,779
40,181

1,976,923
171,514
649,705
1,155,704
148,152
26,157
90,573
31,422

1,724,053
161,514
571,487
991,052
206,403
39,449
131,829
35,125

-2.9
-7.7
1.8
-4.7
1.9
-1.2
2.5
3.4

1.2
-2.2
-0.6
2.7
-3.9
-1.8
-6.9
6.7

739,909
1,901,570
865,871

813,233
2,049,906
880,912

740,751
1,861,796
808,392

755,654
1,922,220
...

726,449
2,004,215
...

-6.9
-3.4
-0.6

8.3
1.6
5.9

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA

Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

JUN
99

JUL
99

AUG
99

SEP
99

OCT
99

166.2
162.8

166.7
163.3

167.1
163.8

167.9
164.7

168.2
165.0

BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.
Department of Commerce
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S.
Department of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems
Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission)
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
2.6
2.7

2.0
2.0

NSCCC: Nogales-Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce
PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service,
U.S. Department of Justice
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department
of the Treasury
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - QUARTERLY DATA

Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) ASU & BLS
Metropolitan Phoenix
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1992=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

% change versus year ago for:
most recent most recent
quarter
quarter

III
98

IV
98

I
99

II
99

III
99

179.7
165.1
163.4
160.0

181.5
165.8
164.0
160.7

n/a
167.3
164.6
161.2

n/a
168.3
166.2
162.8

n/a
170.0
167.2
163.9

2.3
3.0
2.3
2.5

3.0
2.4
1.9
1.9

112.9
112.8

113.1
113.1

113.5
113.5

113.9
114.1

114.2
114.8

1.2
1.7

1.1
1.2

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table

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