A U G U S T

1 9 9 6

THREE MILLION MORE
PEOPLE EXPECTED IN
ARIZONA BY 2019
Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
June 25, 1996

T

his quarter’s forecast pushes the
horizon out twenty-five years.
Our annual visit of the long-term
is little changed from last year’s forecast. Employment will nearly double
and population will swell by 70%.
Nearly half of Arizona’s population
will be working in the year 2019. Per
capita personal income relative to the
U.S. will improve, but remain below
90%. Recently, the pace has accelerated
a bit from last year’s “soft landing,”
but should slow once again as the
year progresses. Next year, and the
following, will bring further slowing,
after which growth should return to
a long-term average pace.
RECENT EVIDENCE AND
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
Arizona’s economy appears to have caught
its second wind. After losing momentum
during the first half of 1995, many measures
show a resurgence in recent months. Electric
customer and telephone customer growth,
which are indicators of population, have
moved higher. Manufacturing and construction jobs, building permits, used home
sales, and restaurant & bar sales have also
increased. Although the recent reacceleration is not likely to challenge the heady
growth rates experienced in 1994, it is clear
that this business expansion is not about to
end anytime soon.
Arizona home-builders have been busy in

S U M M E R

recent months. During the first quarter,
permits for some 20,100 units were issued,
up 23.5% from the comparable period in
1995. Nearly three-fourths were for single
family homes. From early 1994 through last
summer, permits were stuck on a plateau of
roughly 50,000. In recent months, permits
were issued at a 60,000-plus annual rate
(Exhibit 1).
The home-building pace is not likely to
last for long. The jump in interest rates in
the first quarter has pushed mortgage rates
into the mid-eight percent range, and the
prices of both used and new homes have
been rising at a rate two to three times faster
than the rate of inflation. This has led to
a squeeze on affordability. In addition to
deteriorating affordability, population gains
will soon recede, following lower numbers
for nonag employment growth. Historically,
turns in population have lagged behind job
swings by roughly one year.
In Tucson, the recent home-building boom
is already looking a little frayed around
the edges. In a Drachman Institute study
sponsored by the Pima County Real Estate
Research Council, housing absorption is
reported to have fallen from nearly 7,000
units to only 4,000 per year. Negative
absorption, along with a mountain of new
apartment units arriving on the market, have
driven apartment vacancies to a seasonallyadjusted 11.6% in the first quarter of 1996,
up nearly six full percentage points in only

I S S U E

one year. That’s the highest vacancy rate in
5-1/2 years. Tucson’s employment boom of
1994 vanished in 1995, as nonag jobs grew
by a modest 2.5%.
State-wide, construction employment
moved to new record highs during the first
quarter, after a minor downturn in mid-1995.
Later this year, jobs in this sector should
peak, followed by modest declines during
1997-99. The pull back would be much
steeper were it not for the commercial
sector, which is primed for a flurry of new
projects during the remainder of this decade.
Manufacturing jobs are growing again
at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of five
percent, following a non-growth period that
stretched over the better part of a year, from
mid-1994 to mid-1995. A number of new
“fab” plants in the Metro Phoenix area
should keep manufacturing payrolls expanding for the remainder of this decade, although
the timing of these projects may be delayed
due to the current glut of semiconductors.
We look for a job increase of about three
percent for all of 1996.
Residential telephone customer growth,
after receding during last year’s second half,
has surged into the 5.5-6.0% range, a level
last experienced during 1994’s boom. These
counts, which include second lines to
accommodate home-based technology
(computers, fax machines, etc.), overstate
new household formation. Nevertheless,
these are strong readings.

I N S I D E

FORECAST TABLES ................5
HIGH TECH:
ARIZONA vs U.S. ................6
ARIZONA ECONOMIC
INDICATORS ......................12

ELLE R GRADUAT E SCH OOL OF MANAGE MENT • COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND P UBLIC ADMINISTRATION
THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA

TUCSON, ARIZONA

EXHIBIT 1
Arizona’s Residential Building Permits are
Climbing Again (six-period centered moving average)

Individual income tax withholding also
has been strong this year, running ahead of
year-ago levels by 15%. In 1995, gains were
more like ten percent. No legislative changes
have been enacted that would boost withholding or estimated payments, leaving the
economy to explain recent strength. With
employment growth of four to five percent
and wages increasing between three and
four percent, it’s hard to understand how
withholding could be this strong. We expect
personal income to slow down this year,
after the nation-leading 10.4% increase of
1995. We are projecting a gain more like
7.5% for 1996.
Nonagricultural job growth, measured
year-over-year, has stabilized at roughly
four percent during the past eight months
(Exhibit 2). Month-over-month gains of
seasonally adjusted data show that after
dipping into the two to three percent range
last summer, recent gains have rebounded
into the five to six percent range. We expect
that after all the data are in and revised, jobs
will grow by 3.5-4.0% for all of 1996. That’s
an increase of about 65,000 jobs, compared
to the 95,000 job increase of 1995.
Trade and services account for most of the
slowdown in job growth. The retail industry
is currently over-built and a coming shakeout is expected. In the services sector, slowdowns are expected in both business services
and the “other” category, which includes
legal, educational, social, membership
organizations, etc.
PAGE TWO

EXHIBIT 2
Arizona’s Job Growth has Settled
Near Four Percent (seasonally adjusted)

Population growth is expected to slow to
3.0%, following last year’s 3.4% increase.
In terms of the numbers of people, that’s an
increase of 125,000 compared to 140,000
the year before. Further slowing is expected
so that by 1998-99, population will be
increasing by 100,000 or less per year.
Nineteen-ninety-four was the year of peak
growth rates for this business cycle. Last year
saw Arizona’s high-flying economy come
in for a successful soft landing as growth
receded to more normal levels, paralleling
the national economy. We expect the reacceleration in recent months to be only
temporary, and by the end of this year, growth
should once again moderate. The following
two years promise to bring slower growth,
below long-run averages. There are several
reasons for this. First, pent-up demand on
the part of consumers has been satisfied, and
their capacity to spend on credit is clearly
limited. Second, the run in construction
activity is near its peak and will not be
adding to the cycle. Third, as job growth
slows, so will the number of in-migrants.
Fourth, expanding economic opportunities
in other parts of the country, particularly
California, will lessen the number of people
and businesses migrating to Arizona.
By the turn of the century, our projections
attain an equilibrium long-term state. Barring
any shocks, which no one can forecast,
the economy should expand at a long-term
average pace for the rest of the forecast
period.

During the next five years:
• Arizona’s population will increase by
545,000, or 109,000 per year. For the
entire decade of the 1990’s some 1.084
million new residents will be added.
That’s a larger gain than in the 1980s
(960,000) or during the 1970s (943,000).
By the year 2000, some 4.763 million
persons will reside in Arizona (See forecast table on page 5).
• Some 261,000 new jobs will be created.
Job growth will average 2.8% per year
(compared to 3.9% during in the 1980s).
• Personal income will grow by an average
6.1% annually, and will exceed $115
billion in the year 2000.
• Average wages will rise at a 3.1% annual
rate and reach nearly $31,000 by 2000.
• Inflation will average 2.6% per year.
• Per capita income will rise to $24,300,
an annual increase of 3.6%.

NATIONAL FACTORS AFFECTING
THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
Over the long term, expansion of the
nation’s economy is limited by growth of
labor, capital stock and the adaptation of
new technologies. The supply of labor is
regulated by growth of population and its
age structure, labor force participation rates
and length of the work week. Capital accumulation is governed by the savings rate and tax
policies. Growth in productivity, as measured
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

EXHIBIT 3
Projections to the year 2018
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2018

1,483
3,687
59,833
26,694

1,782
4,201
85,783
36,989

2,003
4,712
115,860
47,109

2,370
5,316
165,407
65,575

2,772
5,951
237,397
89,683

3,267
6,645
337,730
121,776

3,555
7,069
416,090
145,629

1,013
2,253
40,237
17,352

1,204
2,569
56,753
24,315

1,333
2,883
71,201
28,598

1,586
3,278
101,567
39,077

1,836
3,690
144,198
51,986

2,137
4,132
198,627
68,265

2,308
4,400
240,906
80,313

252
669
10,213
4,669

309
759
14,609
6,450

338
829
18,269
7,544

405
942
26,155
10,324

470
1,058
37,357
14,076

555
1,188
52,306
19,011

597
1,259
63,576
22,802

Arizona
W&S Employment (000s)
Population (000s)
Personal Income ($ millions)
Retail Sales ($ millions)
Phoenix Mesa Metro Area
W&S Employment (000s)
Population (000s)
Personal Income ($ millions)
Retail Sales ($ millions)
Tucson Metro Area
W&S Employment (000s)
Population (000s)
Personal Income ($ millions)
Retail Sales ($ millions)

by the amount of output per hour worked, is
related to development of new technologies,
demographics (older workers are generally
more productive) and capital formation
(since workers with newer, more efficient
machines are able to produce more). These
basic supply-side factors determine potential
output, or the maximum amount of product
that the economy can produce at any given
time if resources are fully employed.
The U. S. economy, as of mid-1996, is very
near capacity. Therefore, future increases are
limited to growth of factors of production.
Assumptions for these important factors are:
• The U. S. population is expected to expand
at a 0.9% annual rate between 1995 and
2005. From 2005 to 2019, growth will
taper off to 0.8% per year. Older cohorts
will grow more rapidly as the baby boom
generation ages. The proportion of the
population aged 70 and over will continue
rising – from 8.5% in 1990 to over 10.0%
by 2019.
• Female labor force participation rates
are beginning to plateau as they approach
those of males, and will rise from 59.9%
today to 65.5% by 2019. During the same
period, male participation rates will continue trending slightly downward – from
75.0% to 73.8%. The overall rate will
increase by roughly three percentage
points from today’s 66.6%.
• Labor force growth will decelerate appreciably over the forecast period. Small
increases in participation rates, coupled
with slowly-growing numbers of persons in
working-age groups, will result in growth
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

of only 1.5% annually between 1995 and
2005. By the end of the forecast period,
the labor force will be expanding at only
a 0.7% rate. Thus, labor force growth
and population growth will converge.
• Productivity, as measured by output per
hour, is expected to grow an average of
1.3% per year during the next 25 years.
Productivity increased an average 2.9%
per year during the 1960s, but averaged
only 1.4% during the 1970s and 1980s.
In this long-term outlook, an environment
that is free of shocks is assumed. We ignore
the inevitability of recessions on the grounds
that we can not predict with any precision
the timing of future peaks and troughs. As
such, these projections converge after a few
years to a steady-state rate of growth equal
to growth in potential output.
Given growth in these supply factors, the
U.S. economy is expected to expand at an
average rate of 2.2% per year over the next
25 years, as measured by real GDP. Inflation
of 3.0% is projected, as the world’s central
banks remain committed to controlling
inflation. Real long-term interest rates are
expected to decline from today’s 4.0% plus
level to 3.0% 25 years from now. That will
allow the yield on 30-year U.S. treasury bonds
to fall from its 1994 peak of 7.4% to roughly
6.0% by the end of the forecast period.

ARIZONA’S LONGTERM OUTLOOK
After languishing during the later part of
the 1980s, Arizona’s economy has regained

its former stature as one of the three fastestgrowing states in the nation. Job growth rankings for 1995 put Arizona’s 5.4% increase
in third place, behind Nevada (6.9%) and
Utah (5.7%). The U.S. Bureau of Economic
Analysis reports that total personal income
in Arizona grew by 10.4% in 1995, giving
Arizona the number one ranking. Arizona’s
3.5% increase in population in 1995 was
second only to Nevada’s 5.0% increase.
According to Site Selection Magazine, Arizona
ranked numero uno for the number of new
jobs created per one million population
(12,187) for the three year period 1993-95.
“Normal” for Arizona means rapid growth.
And that’s what we project as Arizona heads
into the next century. A slower pace than past
decades, but still nation-leading rates of
growth, are a good bet (Exhibit 3).
By the year 2019, Arizona will add another
three million residents and population will
approach 7.2 million. That’s about as large as
North Carolina and Georgia (the nation’s 10th
and 11th largest states) are today. As of 1994,
Arizona’s population ranked 24th, and with
the magnitude of change predicted, Arizona
will move up the rankings significantly.
Per capita income (PCI) in 2019 will
exceed $55,000. Arizona PCI as a percentage
of national PCI is expected to rest just below
90% twenty-five years hence, about where it
is today. In real terms, per capita income is
expected to grow by 1.2% per year during the
projection period. Total personal income will
surpass $400 billion in 2019.
With population growing by 2.2% per
year and employment increasing at a 3.0%
annual rate, the State’s employment to
PAGE THREE

EXHIBIT 4
Arizona’s Manufacturing Jobs are
a Shrinking Share of Total Jobs

EXHIBIT 5
Housing Unit Permits in Arizona are
Primed for Modest Decline in Near Term

population ratio will continue to increase.
While less than one-fourth of the population
in 1960 was employed, by 1995 that ratio
reached 0.424. By the year 2019, nearly
one-half of the population will be working.
The composition of employment across
industries is expected to change in ways
suggested by historical trends. The narrowlydefined services sector (primarily health,
legal, business services, personal services,
hotels, advertising agencies and other professional services) will continue to account
for an ever-increasing share of the employment base, increasing to more than 37% of
all jobs by 2018, compared to 28% today.
Trade also will increase its share by two
full percentage points. Increasing shares in
services and trade come at the expense of
government and manufacturing. Government
slides to 13% in 2018, from 16% today, and
manufacturing jobs will account for only
8.0%, down from today’s 11.0% (Exhibit 4).
Construction will fall in importance from six
percent today to five percent. The remaining
sectors will represent approximately the same
portion of the economy as they do today.
To house Arizona’s new residents, about
48,000 new housing units each year (on
average) will need to be constructed. Roughly
30,000 of those will be single family units
(Exhibit 5).

1995. As the mega-city of the southwest,
Phoenix continues to astound with its rapid
growth. During the remainder of this decade,
some 365,000 additional people will be
added. That’s about 73,000 per year. A year
2000 population of 2.93 million is projected.
Roughly 28,500 new housing units each year
will be needed to house the new residents.
By the year 2019, nearly 4.7 million persons
will live in Metro Phoenix. That’s about as
large as Dallas/Ft. Worth (the nation’s eighth
largest metro area) is today. Currently, the
Phoenix-Mesa metro area ranks 17th.
As the nation’s 57th largest metro area,
Tucson will continue to grow about half as
fast as Metro Phoenix. Its population count
rises from 760,000 in 1995 to 845,000 by
the turn of the century. That is an average
increase of 17,000 per year. Nearly 7,000
new housing units per year will be needed.
By the year 2019, Tucson’s population is
projected to reach 1.25 million.
Metro Phoenix will account for 71% of
Arizona’s new residents and 72% of the new
jobs created through 2019. The Phoenix area
will represent 65% of Arizona’s population
twenty-five years from now, up from less
than 61% today.

METRO AREA OUTLOOK

These projections are much higher than
those published by the U.S. Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA). For example, BEA projects Arizona’s

The number of people living in the PhoenixMesa Metro Area totaled 2.563 million in
PAGE FOUR

COMPARISONS TO OTHER
LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS

year 2000 population to be 4.525 million
compared to our 4.763 million, a difference
of 238,000, or 47,600 per year over five
years. In projecting an annual increase of
less than 76,000 per year, BEA’s projections
are clearly too low. BEA’s regional projections
program is being discontinued as well as a
number of other programs, due to federal
budget cuts.
Projections by the Arizona Department of
Economic Security are much closer. DES and
our projections of state-wide population vary
by only 53,000 in the year 2000, with DES’s
the lower of the two. By the year 2015, however, the two diverge to a difference of more
than 400,000 (or about 20,000 per year).
DES’s year 2015 population is 6.248 million
compared to our 6.655 million. $

S P O N S O R S

Arizona Bank
Arizona Joint Legislative Budget
Committee
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One of Arizona
City of Tucson Government
Estes Homebuilding Company
First Interstate Bank of Arizona
Pima County Government
Salt River Project
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Newspapers
U S West Communications
AR I ZO NA 'S EC O NO M Y

F O R E C A S T

Forecasts for Arizona
1990
Personal Income ($ mill)
59,833.3
percent change
5.6
Per Capita Personal Income
16,264.5
percent change
3.5
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
26,694.0
percent change
4.7
Population (000s, mid-year)
3,678.8
percent change
2.1
Net Migration (000s)
31.4
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
1,482.9
percent change
2.0
Goods-Producing
280.5
percent change
-2.0
Construction
82.6
percent change
-3.7
Manufacturing
185.3
percent change
-1.5
Service-Providing
1,202.5
percent change
2.9
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
367.3
percent change
0.8
Services
400.3
percent change
3.1
Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
40,236.8
percent change
5.6
Per Capita Personal Income
17,918.3
percent change
3.3
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
17,352.2
percent change
3.8
Population (000s, mid-year)
2,245.6
percent change
2.2
Net Migration (000s)
23.7
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
1,013.1
percent change
2.2
Goods-Producing
203.1
percent change
-1.8
Construction
56.2
percent change
-4.2
Manufacturing
142.1
percent change
-1.0
Service-Providing
810.0
percent change
3.2
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
252.7
percent change
0.4
Services
277.5
percent change
3.7
Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
10,212.9
percent change
3.6
Per Capita Personal Income
15,277.4
percent change
2.3
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
4,669.3
percent change
4.3
Population (000s, mid-year)
668.5
percent change
1.3
Net Migration (000s)
2.6
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
251.6
percent change
0.6
Goods-Producing
42.8
percent change
-5.8
Construction
14.5
percent change
-6.3
Manufacturing
26.2
percent change
-6.3
Service-Providing
208.8
percent change
2.0
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
59.0
percent change
0.2
Services
73.1
percent change
2.4

T A B L E S

1995
86,060.9
10.3
20,403.5
6.6
37,748.7
8.2
4,217.9
3.4
98.9
1,787.1
5.6
325.2
4.7
120.0
10.6
192.5
1.3
1,462.0
5.8
444.8
6.8
523.4
7.9

1996
92,534.1
7.5
21,306.5
4.4
40,239.8
6.6
4,343.0
3.0
78.2
1,851.5
3.6
339.0
4.3
127.4
6.1
198.1
2.9
1,512.5
3.5
454.9
2.3
548.2
4.7

1997
98,037.6
5.9
22,007.8
3.3
41,588.4
3.4
4,454.7
2.6
67.8
1,892.0
2.2
339.8
0.2
123.6
-3.0
202.6
2.3
1,552.2
2.6
462.3
1.6
570.6
4.1

1998
103,012.7
5.1
22,615.5
2.8
43,024.4
3.5
4,555.0
2.3
60.0
1,929.5
2.0
337.9
-0.6
119.6
-3.2
204.6
1.0
1,591.5
2.5
469.8
1.6
594.9
4.3

1999
108,674.5
5.5
23,346.3
3.2
44,903.6
4.4
4,654.9
2.2
64.4
1,980.2
2.6
339.4
0.4
118.4
-1.0
207.4
1.3
1,640.8
3.1
481.3
2.4
622.9
4.7

2000
115,794.3
6.6
24,311.7
4.1
47,329.5
5.4
4,762.9
2.3
74.1
2,048.1
3.4
347.2
2.3
122.4
3.4
211.3
1.9
1,701.0
3.7
497.7
3.4
653.5
4.9

57,128.6
9.6
22,284.7
5.8
24,961.2
9.0
2,563.6
3.6
64.1
1,215.7
6.4
239.3
5.8
81.8
9.6
152.6
4.0
976.4
6.6
297.4
6.0
359.7
7.1

61,512.0
7.7
23,195.5
4.1
26,618.4
6.6
2,651.9
3.4
62.4
1,273.8
4.8
252.0
5.3
87.6
7.0
159.6
4.6
1,021.8
4.6
310.2
4.3
381.4
6.0

64,683.2
5.2
23,706.6
2.2
27,665.3
3.9
2,728.5
2.9
49.5
1,310.4
2.9
258.4
2.5
88.2
0.7
165.4
3.6
1,051.9
3.0
317.5
2.4
399.1
4.6

67,645.6
4.6
24,205.5
2.1
28,766.4
4.0
2,794.6
2.4
38.4
1,336.3
2.0
258.3
-0.0
85.7
-2.9
167.8
1.5
1,077.9
2.5
322.9
1.7
415.7
4.2

71,326.0
5.4
24,942.3
3.0
30,166.3
4.9
2,859.6
2.3
36.8
1,367.9
2.4
258.6
0.1
84.0
-1.9
169.6
1.1
1,109.3
2.9
328.9
1.9
434.0
4.4

75,860.8
6.4
25,899.4
3.8
31,707.4
5.1
2,929.1
2.4
41.1
1,405.9
2.8
262.3
1.4
85.2
1.4
172.1
1.5
1,143.6
3.1
336.0
2.1
453.0
4.4

14,243.4
6.9
18,741.3
3.9
6,300.6
3.8
760.0
2.9
16.8
301.8
2.5
49.2
3.8
20.1
6.0
27.0
2.1
252.6
2.2
68.7
1.3
92.7
4.9

14,978.4
5.2
19,309.8
3.0
6,552.4
4.0
775.7
2.1
10.9
307.8
2.0
48.9
-0.7
20.2
0.7
26.6
-1.5
259.0
2.5
69.6
1.3
96.6
4.2

15,745.1
5.1
19,902.8
3.1
6,831.7
4.3
791.1
2.0
10.4
314.9
2.3
49.2
0.6
20.4
1.0
26.8
0.7
265.7
2.6
70.6
1.5
100.3
3.8

16,538.9
5.0
20,480.1
2.9
7,163.3
4.9
807.6
2.1
11.1
322.7
2.5
50.2
2.1
21.0
2.8
27.3
2.0
272.4
2.5
72.1
2.1
104.4
4.1

17,510.1
5.9
21,206.2
3.5
7,582.6
5.9
825.7
2.2
12.4
333.2
3.3
51.5
2.5
21.9
4.2
27.7
1.4
281.7
3.4
74.1
2.8
109.8
5.2

18,579.6
6.1
21,988.9
3.7
7,967.9
5.1
844.9
2.3
13.4
343.7
3.2
52.8
2.5
22.8
4.5
28.0
1.1
290.9
3.3
76.3
3.0
114.9
4.6

Compound Annual
Growth Rates
90-95 95-00 90-00
7.5
6.1
6.8
4.6

3.6

4.1

7.2

4.6

5.9

2.8

2.5

2.6

25.8
3.8

-5.6
2.8

9.0
3.3

3.0

1.3

2.2

7.8

0.4

4.0

0.8

1.9

1.3

4.0

3.1

3.5

3.9

2.3

3.1

5.5

4.5

5.0

7.3

5.8

6.5

4.5

3.1

3.8

7.5

4.9

6.2

2.7

2.7

2.7

22.0
3.7

-8.5
2.9

5.7
3.3

3.3

1.9

2.6

7.8

0.8

4.3

1.4

2.4

1.9

3.8

3.2

3.5

3.3

2.5

2.9

5.3

4.7

5.0

6.9

5.5

6.2

4.2

3.2

3.7

6.2

4.8

2.6

2.1

2.4

45.7
3.7

-4.5
2.6

18.0
3.2

2.8

1.4

2.1

6.8

2.6

4.7

0.6

0.7

0.7

3.9

2.9

3.4

3.1

2.1

2.6

4.9

4.4

4.6

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Eller Graduate School of Management, College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona

AR IZ ON A 'S ECON O MY

PA G E F IV E

FIGURE 1
Number of High Technology Industry
Establishments in Arizona

HIGH TECHNOLOGY:
ARIZONA VS. THE U.S.
Alberta Charney, Ph.D.,
Economic and Business Research, College
of Business and Public Administration
Julie Leones, Ph.D.,
Department of Resource and Agricultural
Economics, College of Agriculture

ARIZONA’S HIGH TECHNOLOGY
EMPLOYMENT FROM 1972 TO 1994

In a previous article in this publication, the size and
economic impact of the high technology industry in
Arizona were assessed. This article examines the
growth and set backs of the industry for the two
decades from 1972-1992.
Growth in high technology business was
substantial from 1972 through 1987. Employment more than doubled during these years,
increasing from 49,426 to 95,304 jobs (an
annual compound growth rate of almost
4.5%.) Real payroll (in 1994 dollars) also
showed substantial growth, increasing from
$1.66 billion to $3.76 billion (an annual
compound growth rate of 5.6 per year). The
number of establishments more than tripled
over this period.
However, business activity in high technology showed a decline between 1987 and
1992. Employment declined by over 11%
(from 95,304 jobs to 84,402 jobs) and real
payroll (in 1994 dollars) fell by over 13%.
This fall was despite the continued strong
growth in the number of establishments
during the five-year period.
Figures 1, 2, and 3 show the change
from 1972 through 1994 in Arizona’s high
technology employment, payroll (in 1994
dollars), and the number of establishments,
respectively.
The decline from 1987 to 1992 appeared
to be concentrated in the following three
sectors: computer and office equipment
(SIC 357); communications equipment
(SIC 366); and aircraft and parts (SIC 372).
[For SIC code deginitions see Table 1
on pages 9-11.] The decline in these
PA GE S IX

sectors caused an overall loss of more than
11,000 jobs despite continued growth in
several of the other sectors, e.g., electronic
components and accessories (SIC 369),
scientific instruments (SIC 38), and high
technology services.
Part of the reason for the decline in
employment in SICs 357, 366 and 372 was
due to the U.S. Department of Commerce
redefining its Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Codes. For example, part of SIC
366 was shifted to SIC 38, and to 369, both of
which are high technology SICs. This change
would show a decline in communications
equipment (SIC 366) and a corresponding
increase in scientific instruments (SIC 38)
and in miscellaneous electrical equipment
(SIC 369), but would not explain the
11,000 jobs lost in the overall high technology group.
Other changes in SIC codes between 1987
and 1992 could contribute to the measured
decline in high technology. For example,
parts of aircraft and parts (SIC 372) that
dealt with fluid power valves, fluid powerhouse fittings, fluid power pumps and motors,
and fluid power cylinders and actuators were
shifted to non-high technology sectors (SICs
349 and 359). In addition, part of electrical
industrial apparatus (SIC 362) and part
of electronic components and accessories

(SIC 367) were shifted to SIC 3548 (welding
apparatus) and SIC 3264 (porcelain electric
supplies), respectively, also non-high technology sectors. It is not known for certain
how much of the 11,000 decline in jobs is
due to these SIC code changes. However, we
do not believe that these SIC codes changes
contribute significantly to explaining the
decline in reported high technology jobs.
A more likely explanation is that several
downsizings of large high technology firms
took place between 1987 and 1992. The
following firms announced downsizing
plans during this period: IBM, McDonnell
Douglas Helicopter, Intel, Hughes Missiles,
Bull HN Information Systems, Honeywell
(Commercial Flight Systems Group and
Aviation Systems Division), Motorola’s
Government Electronics Group, Digital
Equipment Corp, Loral Defense Systems,
Intertec Aviation (closure, move to Dallas),
AG Communications Systems Corporation,
AlliedSignal Aerospace Company (Garrett
Auxiliary Power Division, Garrett Engine
Division, Garrett Fluid Systems). These
layoffs amounted to over 15,000 employees.
However, some of these same firms as well
as other high technology firms announced
expansions or consolidations that would
have provided additional jobs over this
same five-year period: Hughes Missiles,
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

FIGURE 2
High Technology Industry
Employment in Arizona

Garrett General Aviation, TRW, Honeywell,
Motorola, McDonnell Douglas, AlliedSignal,
and Loral Corporation. These announced
expansions total approximately 8,500 jobs.
Thus, based on publicly available information, downsizing of large firms can explain
a significant portion of the decline in high
technology jobs in Arizona, but not all of it.
Underlying causes of job loss included a
decrease in defense spending, the recession
of the early 1990’s and the increased
competition in the computer industry.
In a survey, high technology firms were
asked to provide their employment figures
for March 1994 and for five years previous
(March 1989). Comparing 1994 employment to 1989 employment for the survey,
reveals that employment in 1994 was nine
percent lower than in 1989. While firms with
fewer than 100 employees grew by 33% over
this period, employment at medium-sized
firms declined by nine percent and at large
firms (over 1,000 employees) by 11%.
The 1987-1992 period can be characterized as a very volatile period for high
technology business in Arizona. Small firms
continued to be created; some large firms
downsized or consolidated; and some large
firms grew or experienced large swings
in employment.
Although precise employment and payroll
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

FIGURE 3
High Technology Industry
Payroll in Arizona (in millions of $)

figures are not available for 1994, employment and payroll estimates for 1994 reveal
that high technology business has shown
strong growth between 1992 and 1994.
Employment is estimated to have grown
almost 13% during this period, which is
approximately a 6.2% annual compound
growth rate. Similarly, real payroll (measured
in 1994 dollars) is estimated to have grown
6.9% annually since 1994.
The contraction in high technology
business during the 1987 to 1992 period,
followed by strong growth from 1992 through
1994 mirrors the overall performance of
the Arizona economy.

ARIZONA VS. THE
U.S. ECONOMY
Julie Leones, Ph.D.,
Department of Resource and Agricultural
Economics, College of Agriculture
Alberta Charney, Ph.D.,
Economic and Business Research, College
of Business and Public Administration

The high technology industry in
Arizona is distinctly different from
the rest of the United Sates. In

Arizona, high technology is
concentrated in a relatively few
sectors – this article compares
those, as well as under represented
sectors, to the U.S. overall.
Table 1 illustrates which of Arizona’s
economic sectors are better represented in
Arizona than in the U.S. as a whole. Table 1
utilizes a concept known as the location
quotient to measure whether each economic
sector is comparatively stronger in Arizona
than it is in the U.S. or whether it is weaker.
A location quotient for each sector in Arizona
is computed by dividing each sector’s share
of the total Arizona economy by the corresponding sectoral share in the U.S. Thus if
a location quotient is greater than one for
a particular sector, then that sector has a
stronger representation in Arizona than it
does for the U.S. as a whole. If a location
quotient is equal to one, then that sector is
equally important in Arizona as it is in the
U.S. and if a location quotient in Arizona is
less than one, the sector is less important
in Arizona than it is in the U.S.
Table 1 provides a list of industries in
Arizona. Some are reported at the one-digit
SIC level (e.g., agricultural services, forestry
& fishing), some at the 2-digit SIC level
(food and kindred products, SIC 20), some
PAGE SEVEN

at the three-digit SIC level (copper ores,
SIC 102), and some at the four-digit level
(electron tubes, SIC 3671). Various levels
of detail were retained in this table because
some sectors are of more or less interest
for this particular study and for Arizona, in
general, and because all high technology
sectors are reported at the same detail as
their definition, i.e., at the three-digit or
four-digit levels.
In Table 1, all high technology sectors
are designated with an asterisk (*) in front
of the industry descriptions given in the
first column and SIC codes are given in the
second column. Arizona 1992 employment
from County Business Patterns is in the third
column. Several of the employment figures
have a double asterisk (**) beside them,
indicating that County Business Patterns
could not disclose exact employment figures.
Thus the employment figures denoted by
(**) in Table 1 are the midpoint of the
employment range reported by County
Business Patterns.
The last column in Table 1 is the location
quotient for each sector. Interpretation of
location quotients is quite straightforward.
The agricultural services sector has a location of 2.63, which means that agricultural
services is 2.63 times more important in
Arizona than it is in the U.S. as a whole.
Specifically, the location quotient says that
the agricultural services sector in Arizona
(as a share of total Arizona employment)
is 2.63 times larger than it is in the U.S.
(as a share of total U.S. employment). The
location quotient for copper ores is 32,
which means that this sector is 32 times
more important in Arizona than it is in the
U.S. as a whole. Other non-high technology
sectors with location quotients of interest
are tourism-related sectors, e.g., hotels
and other lodging places (SIC 70, location
quotient of 3.12), eating and drinking
places (SIC 58, location quotient of 3.75)
and a variety of other retail sectors (SIC 52
through 59, retail trade in total had a location quotient of 2.15), and amusement and
recreation services (SIC 79, location quotient
of 1.96). Sectors dependent on high population growth rates also have high location
quotients in Arizona. Construction-related
sectors demonstrate location quotients
over one, (i.e., construction, SIC 15 has a
location quotient of 1.33), real estate (SIC
65, location quotient of 1.52). In addition,
several business services have high location
quotients. Services to buildings (SIC 734,
PAGE EIGHT

location quotient of 2.21) and personnel
supply services (location quotient of 2.15).
Unlike location quotients for agricultural
services, construction, retail trade, and
services, the location quotient for manufacturing is less than one (i.e., .55). However,
several sectors within manufacturing have
much higher location quotients. Among
the high technology sectors, Arizona is
substantially under represented in high
technology chemicals (SICs 281, 282, 283,
386, and 289) and ordnance (SIC 348). Two
high technology components of industrial
machinery and equipment (SICs 351 and
357) represent a smaller share of Arizona’s
employment than they do in the U.S. While
this is not surprising for engines and turbines (SIC 351), it is somewhat surprising
for SIC 357, which is the computer and
office equipment sector.
Arizona is also under represented in
high technology services. Virtually all of the
computer-related high technology services
(SICs 7371, 7372, 7273, and 7379) have
location quotients substantially less than one.
In addition, Arizona has substantially fewer
workers, as a share of its economy than the
U.S., in commercial and noncommercial
research facilities and testing laboratories
(SICs 8731, 8733, and 8743).
Although scientific instruments (instruments and related products, SIC 38) represents substantial employment in Arizona
(over 13,000 jobs), the overall category is
only 70% as important as it is in the United
States as a whole. Within SIC 38, only two
subsectors are more important in Arizona
than in the U.S., namely search and navigation equipment (SIC 381) and process
control instruments (SIC 3823).
Arizona is substantially represented in
several of the high technology sectors within
the transportation equipment sector (SIC 37).
Aircraft and parts (SIC 372) is 24% larger
than it is for the U.S. as a whole. Within
aircraft and parts, both aircraft engines and
engine parts (SIC 3724) and aircraft parts
and equipment, n.e.c. (SIC 3728) are strong
sectors for Arizona, with location quotients
of 2.50 and 1.12, respectively.
Guided missiles, space vehicles and parts
(SIC 376) is 43% larger than other states
in the U.S., on average. Two of the three
subsectors of guided missiles have stronger
representation in Arizona than other states,
i.e., guided missiles and space vehicles
(SIC 3761) and space vehicle equipment,
n.e.c. (SIC 3769).

Arizona’s electronic and other electronic
equipment (SIC 36) sector is 31$ larger as
a share of Arizona’s economy than it is for
the United States. Although not all of this
two-digit sector is defined to be high technology for purposes of this study, several
of its subsectors are. In particular, the
electronic components and accessories
sector (SIC 367) is extremely strong in
Arizona, when compared to the U.S., as
well as several of its subsectors. Overall,
the electronic components and accessories
sector is 2.69 times more important in
Arizona than it is in the U.S.
The most important subsector, both in
terms of its location quotient (4.11) and its
employment level (16,000+ jobs), is semiconductors and related devices (SIC 3674).
Several other subsectors are more strongly
represented in Arizona than the U.S.: electron
tubes (SIC 3671) with a location quotient of
1.39; printed circuit boards (SIC 3672) with
a location quotient of 2.63; electronic coils
and transformers (SIC 3677) with a location
quotient of 1.61; electronic connectors (SIC
3678) with a location quotient of 1.56; and
electronic components, n.e.c. (SIC 3679)
with a location quotient 1.50.

CONCLUSION
In conclusion, Arizona is not well
represented in all sectors identified as high
technology. Arizona is substantially under
represented in high technology chemicals,
industrial machinery and equipment, and
high technology services. Arizona is also
under represented in scientific instruments
when compared to the U.S., but two of its
subsectors, search and navigation equipment and process control instruments, are
more important in Arizona than in the U.S.
Arizona is extremely well represented in
aircraft ad parts and guided missiles, space
vehicles and parts, which are 24% and 43%,
respectively, larger than they are in the U.S.
The electronic and other electronic equipment sector in by far the largest high technology center in Arizona and it is 31% larger
as a share of Arizona’s economy than it is
for the U.S.
1 Source: Standard Industrial Classification Manual, 1987. Executive
Office of the President, Office of Management and Budget, for sale
by National Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield,
Virginia 22161 Order PB87-100012.
2 Announced business cuts and layoffs taken from the business
press. The Arizona Republic, Phoenix Business Journal and What’s
New in Arizona publications were monitored. The compilation of
business cuts and layoffs are courtesy of The Forecasting Project,
Economic and Business Research Program, College of Business
and Public Administration, The University of Arizona.

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

TABLE 1
Arizona Industry Location Quotient Analysis

TOTAL
AG. SERVICES, FORESTRY & FISHING
MINING
Copper ores
Other mining
CONSTRUCTION
MANUFACTURING
Food and kindred products
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
* Industrial inorganic chemicals
* Plastics materials and synthetics
* Drugs
Soap, cleaners, and toilet goods
Paints and allied products
* Industrial organic chemicals
Agricultural chemicals
* Miscellaneous chemical products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans and shipping containers
Cutlery, handtools, and hardware
Plumbing and heating, except electric
Fabricated structural metal products
Screw machine products, bolts, etc.
Metal forgings and stampings
Metal services, n.e.c.
* Ordnance and accessories, n.e.c.
Misc. fabricated metal products
Industrial machinery and equipment
* Engines and turbines
Farm and garden machinery
Construction and related machinery
Metalworking machinery
Special industry machinery
General industrial machinery
* Computer and office equipment
Refrigeration and service machinery
Industrial machinery, n.e.c.
Electronic and other electronic equipment
Electric distribution equipment
* Electrical industrial apparatus
Household appliances
Electric lighting and wiring equipment
Household audio and video equipment
* Communications equipment
* Electronic components and accessories
* Electron tubes
* Printed circuit boards
* Semiconductors and related devices
* Electronic capacitors

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

SIC
Code
—
0
1
102
––
15
––
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
289
29
30
31
32
33
34
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
35
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
36
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
3671
3672
3674
3675

1992 Arizona
Employment
1270126
12843
13581
9654
3927
82710
176866
8294
10 **
643
3992
6212
3649
1999
16400
4610
375 **
60 **
1170
2224
184
60 **
400
263
375 **
6377
175 **
5819
6535
9998
175 **
643
10 **
5100
898
826
1131
149
1112
12491
10 **
750 **
263
2890
1174
452
1471
1474
4011
33533
481
690
175 **
979
375 **
4539
24815
750 **
2665
16357
175 **

Location
Quotient
1.00
2.63
0.91
32.09
0.27
1.33
0.55
0.41
0.01
0.09
0.47
0.84
0.66
0.17
0.69
0.24
0.15
0.02
0.26
1.00
0.19
0.02
0.44
0.17
0.12
0.51
0.17
0.81
0.51
0.45
0.17
0.32
0.02
0.90
0.63
0.19
0.77
0.11
0.27
0.38
0.01
0.54
0.08
0.58
0.38
0.10
0.24
0.50
0.81
1.31
0.41
0.27
0.12
0.42
0.56
0.89
2.69
1.39
2.63
4.11
0.68

PAGE NINE

* Electronic resistors
* Electronic coils and transformers
* Electronic connectors
* Electronic components, n.e.c.
* Misc. electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
* Aircraft and parts
* Aircraft
* Aircraft engines and engine parts
* Aircraft parts and equipment, n.e.c.
Ship and boat building and repairing
Railroad equipment
Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts
* Guided missiles, space vehicles, parts
* Guided missiles and space vehicles
* Space propulsion units and parts
* Space vehicle equipment, n.e.c.
Miscellaneous transportation equipment
* Instruments and related products
* Search and navigation equipment
* Measuring and controlling devices
* Laboratory apparatus and furniture
* Environmental controls
* Process control instruments
* Fluid meters and counting devices
* Instruments to measure electricity
* Analytical instruments
* Optical instruments and lenses
* Measuring and controlling devices, n.e.c.
* Medical instruments and supplies
* Surgical and medical instruments
* Surgical appliances and supplies
* Dental equipment and supplies
* X-ray apparatus and tubes
* Electromedical equipment
* Ophthalmic goods
* Photographic equipment and supplies
* Watches, clocks, watchcases and parts
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Jewelry, silverware, and plated ware
Musical instruments
Toys and sporting goods
Pens, pencils, office, and art supplies
Costume jewelry and notions
Miscellaneous manufactures
TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES
Local and interurban passenger transit
Trucking and warehousing
Water transportation
Transportation by air
Pipelines, except natural gas
Transportation services
Communication
Electric, gas, and sanitary services
WHOLESALE TRADE
Wholesale trade - durable goods
Wholesale trade - nondurable goods
RETAIL TRADE
Building materials and garden supplies
General merchandise stores
Food stores
Automotive dealers and service stations
Apparel and accessory stores
Furniture and homefurnishings stores

PAGE TEN

SIC
Code
3676
3677
3678
3679
369
37
371
372
3721
3724
3728
373
374
375
376
3761
3764
3769
379
38
381
382
3821
3822
3823
3824
3825
3826
3827
3829
384
3841
3842
3843
3844
3845
385
386
387
39
391
393
394
395
396
399
4
41
42
44
45
46
47
48
49
—
50
51
—
52
53
54
55
56
57

1992 Arizona
Employment
10 **
356
785
3765
1452
28657
2698
18989
3750 **
7500 **
4345
446
0
10 **
6064
3750 **
10 **
1750 **
285
13292
8059
2900
10 **
60 **
1986
60 **
220
238
175 **
157
2172
750 **
1449
10 **
0
175 **
60 **
60 **
0
3889
225
322
2003
92
48
1183
81603
3523
18916
149
18081
129
8527
17782
12796
72286
44224
24763
309561
9049
30176
47773
33838
15126
11735

Location
Quotient
0.07
1.61
1.56
1.50
0.48
0.78
0.19
1.34
0.51
2.50
1.12
0.17
0.00
0.06
1.43
1.16
0.01
5.98
0.48
0.70
1.23
0.54
0.03
0.15
1.95
0.35
0.15
0.31
0.38
0.21
0.46
0.42
0.93
0.04
0.00
0.20
0.14
0.03
0.00
0.81
0.39
2.13
1.76
0.22
0.16
0.55
0.80
1.26
0.89
0.05
1.37
0.25
1.72
0.60
0.55
0.67
0.73
0.66
2.15
1.39
2.21
2.18
1.53
2.13
1.50

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

3676
3677
3678
3679
3690
3700
3710
3720
3721
3724
3728
3730
3740
3750
3760
3761
3764
3769
3790
3800
3810
3820
3821
3822
3823
3824
3825
3826
3827
3829
3840
3841
3842
3843
3844
3845
3850
3860
3870
3900
3910
3930
3940
3950
3960
3990
4000
4100
4200
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
4999.9
5000
5100
5199.9
5200
5300
5400
5500
5600
5700

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

Eating and drinking places
Miscellaneous retail
FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE
Depository institutions
Nondepository institutions
Security and commodity brokers
Insurance carriers
Insurance agents, brokers, and service
Real estate
Holding and other investment offices
SERVICES
Hotels and other lodging places
Personal services
Business services
Advertising
Credit reporting and collection
Mailing, reproduction, stenographic
Services to buildings
Misc. equipment rental and leasing
Personnel supply services
Computer and data processing services
* Computer programming services
* Prepackaged software
* Computer integrated systems design
Data processing and preparation
Information retrieval services
Computer facilities management
Computer rental and leasing
Computer maintenance and repair
* Computer related services, n.e.c.
Miscellaneous business services
Auto repair, services, and parking
Miscellaneous repair services
Motion pictures
Amusement and recreation services
Health services
Legal services
Educational services
Social services
Museums, botanical, zoological gardens
Membership organizations
Engineering and management services
Engineering and architectural services
Accounting, auditing, and bookkeeping
Research and testing services
* Commercial physical research
Commercial nonphysical research
* Noncommercial research organizations
* Testing laboratories
Management and public relations
Services, n.e.c.
Administrative and auxiliary
Unclassified Establishments
*

Signifies a High Technology Business

**

Employment estimate, based on midpoint of range reported by County Business Patterns

n.e.c.

not elsewhere classified

SIC
Code
58
59
6
60
61
62
63
64
65
67
7
70
72
73
731
732
733
734
735
736
737
7371
7372
7373
7374
7375
7376
7377
7378
7379
738
75
76
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
86
87
871
872
873
8731
8732
8733
8734
874
89
899
99

1992 Arizona
Employment
112448
37480
90950
26082
8794
3105
15756
9540
23817
3025
428904
34856
20206
79706
1551
3228
3263
11551
3394
28215
7834
2232
719
1557
1377
113
18
108
701
892
18981
16883
5925
3947
18377
124056
13124
14726
28120
894
20810
39756
9800
11343
5200
1481
1876
1049
776
13324
1051
6467
822

Location
Quotient
3.75
1.86
0.69
0.74
0.95
0.14
0.52
0.85
1.52
0.46
1.12
3.12
2.40
1.31
0.37
2.51
1.07
2.21
1.26
2.15
0.41
0.39
0.26
0.65
0.34
0.23
0.04
0.40
0.60
0.62
1.74
1.93
1.18
0.74
1.96
0.86
0.65
0.73
1.95
1.31
1.40
0.79
0.52
1.29
0.65
0.35
1.32
0.82
0.70
0.91
0.73
0.74
2.46

PAGE ELEVEN

A R I Z O N A

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JAN
96

FEB
96

MAR
96

APR
96

MAY
96

59,825
48,000
11,825
19.8

59,950
49,800
10,150
16.9

58,725
48,200
10,525
17.9

62,150
47,700
14,450
23.3

66,275
45,075
21,200
32.0

-5.4
-3.5
-9.2
-4.0

0.6
7.6
-14.3
-15.4

37,100
0
1,700
1,400
1,800
12,300
1,200
9,200
9,500

37,000
0
1,600
1,400
1,800
12,200
1,200
9,300
9,500

37,000
0
1,600
1,400
1,800
12,100
1,200
9,400
9,500

36,200
0
1,500
1,300
1,800
11,800
1,200
9,200
9,400

35,600
0
1,500
1,300
1,800
11,400
1,100
9,100
9,400

-0.3
...
-11.8
-13.3
0.0
-4.2
-8.3
9.6
1.1

5.2
...
-8.0
-11.1
7.5
4.0
-2.0
11.8
6.9

73,724
57,585
8,460
7,679
6,737
9,719

75,789
58,426
9,637
7,726
6,765
9,498

76,581
58,975
8,745
8,861
7,234
15,142

65,068
50,236
7,482
7,350
5,291
12,954

62,193
47,980
6,866
7,347
5,072
11,077

8.4
6.2
10.2
22.9
2.6
28.3

6.1
6.1
4.2
8.4
5.0
8.6

14,625
3,622
3,569
7,434

10,323
4,525
1,874
3,924

7,672
6,034
798
840

10,471
6,829
1,825
1,817

9,841
7,225
1,048
1,568

-4.6
56.3
-73.2
-12.1

-1.9
10.0
-19.8
6.0

46
46

65
65

87
72

89
89

89
86

43.5
38.7

12.9
10.9

66,900
62,025
4,875
7.3

67,025
62,050
4,975
7.4

66,975
62,475
4,500
6.7

66,625
62,725
3,900
5.9

66,675
63,100
3,575
5.4

4.5
5.8
-14.9
-18.5

8.5
10.7
-15.0
-21.8

37,900
200
2,700
3,700
2,000
11,300
1,400
9,100
7,500

37,800
200
2,600
3,700
2,000
11,000
1,500
9,300
7,500

37,500
200
2,600
3,500
2,000
11,100
1,500
9,300
7,300

37,800
200
2,600
3,500
2,000
11,200
1,500
9,300
7,500

37,900
200
2,600
3,500
2,000
11,200
...
9,400
7,500

0.8
0.0
-16.1
-5.4
11.1
-0.0
-6.3
3.3
8.7

4.6
50.0
-5.5
2.1
13.5
3.1
-11.4
4.9
13.2

78,626
54,220
10,533
13,873
12,170
11,764

81,033
58,334
11,697
11,002
9,633
15,613

88,575
63,838
12,117
12,620
10,303
12,931

90,203
62,453
11,581
16,169
11,640
15,610

90,705
62,603
11,393
16,709
11,535
13,275

11.4
5.3
11.9
41.7
18.4
-18.6

9.5
7.1
7.0
25.5
20.4
-6.0

16,953
9,076
2,372
5,505

25,804
9,201
547
16,056

14,886
11,455
1,194
2,237

15,870
13,452
1,689
729

29,121
15,242
5,487
8,392

12.6
39.1
-29.1
17.0

-12.1
-10.8
-46.8
31.0

102
102

111
111

133
133

155
153

171
171

33.6
33.6

-9.2
-8.7

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TWELVE

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

COCHISE-SANTA CRUZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
GILA-GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JAN
96

FEB
96

MAR
96

APR
96

MAY
96

57,350
50,325
7,025
12.2

57,400
50,775
6,625
11.5

56,650
50,525
6,125
10.8

56,175
50,775
5,400
9.6

56,800
50,900
5,900
10.4

2.1
2.3
0.0
-2.0

4.4
6.2
-7.7
-11.6

41,600
0
2,000
2,100
2,300
11,300
900
8,800
14,200

41,700
0
2,000
2,100
2,300
11,100
900
8,900
14,400

41,800
0
2,000
2,100
2,300
11,000
900
9,000
14,500

42,000
0
2,100
2,000
2,300
11,100
800
9,200
14,500

42,100
0
2,000
2,000
2,300
11,200
800
9,300
14,500

4.2
-100.0
5.3
0.0
4.5
-2.6
-20.0
12.0
8.2

4.3
-41.7
7.6
2.5
3.8
-2.9
-9.8
8.5
9.3

57,296
41,759
8,032
7,505
6,584
9,206

58,234
44,486
7,850
5,898
5,165
10,024

66,303
49,834
8,795
7,674
6,265
11,763

66,646
50,468
7,686
8,492
6,114
13,020

57,454
42,977
7,551
6,926
4,781
11,880

-7.0
-8.5
-3.7
-0.9
-17.2
-23.4

-2.7
-4.3
-1.2
7.8
4.0
3.9

7,841
5,683
908
1,250

20,238
19,669
220
349

19,388
13,341
1,498
4,549

9,816
7,164
766
1,886

11,933
6,668
2,616
2,649

132.1
44.4
399.2
...

-23.2
51.1
-68.1
-62.9

72
72

63
63

112
112

85
85

80
80

33.3
33.3

31.1
12.2

35,750
32,725
3,025
8.5

35,750
32,875
2,875
8.0

35,525
32,800
2,725
7.7

35,025
32,650
2,375
6.8

35,225
32,800
2,425
6.9

3.2
3.6
-1.0
-4.1

8.2
9.4
-4.7
-12.1

25,700
2,800
1,800
2,000
800
5,400
500
5,100
7,300

25,600
2,800
1,800
2,000
800
5,300
500
5,100
7,300

25,700
2,800
1,700
2,000
800
5,300
500
5,000
7,600

25,900
2,900
1,600
2,000
800
5,400
600
5,000
7,600

26,000
2,900
1,600
2,000
800
5,400
600
5,100
7,600

6.1
7.4
-11.1
11.1
14.3
-5.3
0.0
13.3
13.4

8.4
-5.9
1.5
7.3
9.1
2.9
9.7
22.8
12.2

34,497
26,588
4,487
3,422
3,002
9,107

32,916
24,685
4,604
3,627
3,176
8,707

39,669
30,562
5,044
4,063
3,317
7,334

39,931
30,199
4,969
4,763
3,429
9,055

41,050
30,854
5,607
4,589
3,168
10,225

2.5
0.9
9.3
5.5
-11.9
5.8

6.9
6.7
7.1
7.9
4.1
-5.7

9,107
2,753
882
5,472

5,447
3,099
143
2,205

6,476
4,248
962
1,266

12,037
5,124
1,535
5,378

5,393
4,823
205
365

4.3
179.6
-79.5
-85.1

24.6
28.4
15.5
25.2

35
35

34
34

46
46

57
53

53
53

140.9
165.0

21.7
21.6

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
AR IZ ON A 'S ECON O MY

PAGE THIRTEEN

A R I Z O N A

APACHE-NAVAJO REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JAN
96

FEB
96

MAR
96

APR
96

MAY
96

50,750
42,750
8,000
15.8

50,675
42,850
7,825
15.4

50,400
42,825
7,575
15.0

50,050
43,425
6,625
13.2

50,650
43,775
6,875
13.6

0.5
0.7
-0.7
-1.3

3.5
4.8
-3.1
-6.5

39,800
900
1,700
1,700
2,800
6,600
1,400
10,700
14,000

40,300
900
1,700
1,700
2,900
6,700
1,400
10,800
14,200

40,500
900
1,700
1,700
2,800
6,700
1,500
10,900
14,300

40,900
900
1,700
1,700
2,800
7,000
1,500
11,000
8,300

41,300
900
1,700
1,700
2,800
7,100
1,600
11,000
14,500

2.7
-10.0
6.3
-5.6
-3.4
2.9
14.3
2.8
4.3

2.6
-4.2
4.2
-11.3
-0.0
1.2
13.9
1.9
1.9

48,906
38,023
3,740
7,143
6,266
7,348

46,396
35,807
3,970
6,619
5,796
6,130

51,046
38,055
4,607
8,384
6,844
5,650

59,055
45,020
4,545
9,490
6,832
8,616

64,236
48,524
5,537
10,175
7,024
9,797

11.6
11.8
12.6
10.2
-7.9
55.8

-27.4
-33.8
6.4
6.3
2.5
24.2

3,593
1,510
210
1,873

14,436
1,832
9,175
3,429

5,820
2,485
2,000
1,335

6,235
3,091
227
2,917

11,856
8,949
221
2,686

-27.4
105.7
-87.5
-73.7

-18.8
11.4
-28.9
-31.1

20
20

23
23

28
28

38
38

116
116

132.0
132.0

43.1
54.9

118,075
110,200
7,875
6.7

115,600
107,925
7,675
6.6

118,100
110,975
7,125
6.0

116,800
110,750
6,050
5.2

118,025
111,725
6,300
5.3

-0.5
-0.4
-1.9
-1.5

5.3
6.4
-9.4
-14.1

86,900
900
5,900
5,600
2,800
23,600
2,400
22,600
23,100

88,900
900
5,900
5,400
2,800
23,700
2,400
22,600
25,200

90,500
900
6,200
5,500
2,900
24,000
2,400
23,100
25,500

90,200
900
6,200
5,500
2,900
24,100
2,400
23,100
25,100

90,100
900
6,300
5,400
3,000
24,300
2,400
23,300
24,500

1.5
0.0
8.6
-8.5
0.0
0.4
-7.7
1.7
4.3

3.3
2.9
2.7
-6.0
-1.4
2.2
-6.2
3.0
9.3

125,899
93,488
21,379
11,032
9,678
31,167

128,194
92,404
22,951
12,839
11,242
34,255

149,629
106,600
28,685
14,344
11,710
31,729

156,435
110,244
28,515
17,676
12,725
97,921

169,364
119,573
29,460
20,331
14,035
35,960

6.3
7.2
-4.9
20.7
0.8
17.1

7.9
7.4
9.4
8.2
4.1
26.3

22,697
17,079
3,732
1,886

65,826
19,920
5,982
39,924

42,760
24,452
12,480
5,828

48,518
33,595
4,093
10,830

47,026
24,502
4,887
17,637

-17.3
-38.2
-58.5
224.8

8.7
-19.7
66.9
98.1

163
147

188
168

224
214

424
248

249
208

4.2
-5.9

-14.5
-13.9

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE FOURTEEN

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

JAN
96

FEB
96

MAR
96

APR
96

MAY
96

1,361.3
1,315.5
45.8
3.3

1,372.7
1,328.6
44.1
3.3

1,373.0
1,329.8
43.2
3.3

1,369.3
1,330.1
39.2
3.2

1,381.5
1,337.6
43.9
3.5

2.5
2.6
-0.7
-2.8

6.0
7.0
-16.5
-21.0

1,240.4
5.2
84.5
151.3
114.6
36.7
63.3
313.1
75.8
237.3
87.7
374.8
160.5

1,261.0
5.2
86.8
152.6
115.7
36.9
63.6
314.5
76.8
237.7
88.2
381.6
168.5

1,271.0
5.2
86.5
152.9
115.9
37.0
64.0
317.8
78.2
239.6
88.4
386.5
169.7

1,273.3
5.2
86.8
153.7
116.7
37.0
64.3
320.2
78.5
241.7
88.6
387.6
166.9

1,274.5
5.1
86.9
154.3
117.3
37.0
64.2
320.4
78.6
241.8
89.1
385.4
169.1

4.8
-1.9
8.0
4.5
5.8
0.8
0.5
4.5
7.5
3.6
2.6
6.5
3.6

5.1
3.3
7.2
2.6
3.6
-0.4
0.1
6.4
7.9
6.0
-0.7
6.5
6.1

2,125,360
1,462,110
286,109
270,309
106,832
386,325

2,150,047
1,469,582
287,699
278,747
114,019
415,439

2,396,299
1,665,370
288,714
308,630
133,585
421,556

2,285,981
1,585,503
293,568
263,917
142,993
438,968

2,326,664
1,631,094
289,323
266,868
139,379
436,511

13.4
15.0
4.4
10.4
22.2
87.6

11.0
11.1
8.8
10.4
17.4
25.5

407,270
294,849
72,071
40,350

511,573
276,175
110,758
124,640

599,631
434,192
103,893
61,546

563,762
422,652
98,320
42,790

519,552
392,973
100,772
25,807

-27.7
-2.1
-43.9
-81.3

6.3
7.3
1.3
13.5

3,367
2,235
45
1,087

4,341
2,374
32
1,935

3,954
3,071
16
867

4,041
3,032
14
995

3,350
2,834
10
506

-12.7
4.0
-89.1
-50.3

17.1
19.9
-13.4
10.3

331,251
2,576
128,591

310,847
2,514
123,646

465,604
3,795
122,689

552,788
4,514
122,461

560,125
4,458
125,645

45.2
32.0
10.0

28.8
22.1
5.5

2,325,621
35,148

2,480,939
33,044

2,920,143
36,070

2,562,436
34,856

...
...

6.6
-16.7

9.8
-15.0

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

II
95

III
95

IV
95

I
96

II
96

2,552.5
6.1
11.1
5.0
16.0

2,574.6
6.2
11.2
5.0
15.9

2,596.7
6.3
11.4
5.1
15.8

2,618.8
6.4
11.5
5.1
15.7

2,640.9
6.4
11.6
5.1
15.6

3.5
4.9
3.8
2.4
-2.0

3.5
5.7
3.8
1.6
-1.8

56,590
40,897
2,490
-32
9,491
8,723
22,170

57,720
41,664
2,532
-32
9,720
8,899
22,419

58,792
42,413
2,573
-32
9,924
9,059
22,641

59,868
43,169
2,615
-32
10,128
9,217
22,861

60,964
43,928
2,657
-32
10,342
9,383
23,085

7.7
7.4
6.7
-0.6
9.0
7.6
4.1

8.5
8.0
7.2
-1.6
10.4
8.3
4.8

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PA GE F IF TE EN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

MAY
96

JAN
96

FEB
96

MAR
96

APR
96

370.7
358.2
12.5
3.3

372.2
360.1
12.1
3.4

372.5
360.3
12.2
3.5

370.3
359.5
10.8
3.2

373.4
361.6
11.8
3.6

0.6
0.6
2.6
2.9

2.7
3.2
-10.7
-12.7

304.7
2.3
19.9
27.4
22.3
5.1
13.8
70.0
10.3
59.7
12.0
93.0
66.3

309.0
2.3
19.8
27.5
22.3
5.2
13.7
70.2
10.3
59.9
12.0
93.7
69.8

311.0
2.3
19.7
27.5
22.4
5.1
13.6
70.4
10.5
59.9
12.1
94.6
70.8

310.9
2.3
20.1
27.6
22.5
5.1
13.5
70.3
10.5
59.8
11.9
94.2
71.0

310.6
2.4
20.0
27.7
22.6
5.1
13.5
70.3
10.5
59.8
11.9
93.6
71.2

2.7
9.1
2.0
0.4
1.3
-3.8
1.5
2.0
8.2
1.0
1.7
1.5
6.3

1.4
9.6
2.6
1.5
2.7
-3.1
2.5
0.9
1.9
0.7
-2.9
1.8
1.3

509,912
345,108
76,188
61,709
26,907
84,443

525,909
347,058
76,611
69,367
32,873
81,331

583,211
390,149
76,881
77,972
38,209
97,380

551,242
367,693
78,174
64,704
40,671
93,396

559,564
378,957
77,044
65,193
38,371
96,684

3.5
3.2
1.4
4.8
9.3
4.9

5.2
4.7
5.0
4.9
11.6
10.5

68,420
42,957
14,988
10,475

97,219
54,554
27,739
14,926

112,393
72,359
31,947
8,087

94,930
47,535
18,664
28,731

128,375
93,184
28,798
6,393

-6.5
28.5
14.4
-83.9

-4.1
-13.4
18.1
8.0

577
403
6
168

397
395
2
0

488
473
4
11

485
479
6
0

587
495
20
72

30.7
13.3
66.7
...

-22.8
-13.3
-46.6
-42.0

72,125
612
117,851

70,909
545
130,109

97,632
788
123,899

...
...
...

...
...
...

34.8
23.3
9.3

2.0
-2.2
4.4

283,183
22,389

312,477
20,117

349,205
22,421

325,819
20,743

320,038
22,166

5.6
9.5

3.3
2.8

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

I
95

II
95

III
95

IV
95

I
96

752.7
1.2
2.9
1.6
4.2

757.7
1.3
2.9
1.6
3.7

762.1
1.3
2.9
1.7
3.1

766.1
1.3
3.0
1.7
2.8

770.2
1.3
3.0
1.7
2.8

2.3
6.6
4.2
2.5
-34.8

2.6
7.0
4.2
2.1
-26.7

13,965
8,764
544
139
2,796
2,811
18,553

14,157
8,846
550
140
2,854
2,866
18,684

14,332
8,932
557
142
2,897
2,919
18,807

14,492
9,028
565
144
2,919
2,966
18,916

14,657
9,129
573
147
2,941
3,012
19,030

5.0
4.2
5.3
5.8
5.2
7.2
2.6

6.2
4.8
5.9
6.8
9.0
7.9
3.5

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table
PA GE S IX TE EN

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Transportation
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
Schools
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Copper Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Real Property
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JAN
96

FEB
96

MAR
96

APR
96

MAY
96

2,120.7
2,019.8
100.9
4.8

2,131.4
2,035.0
96.4
4.9

2,131.8
2,037.9
93.9
4.9

2,126.4
2,037.6
88.8
4.7

2,148.5
2,046.6
101.9
5.1

1.7
2.0
-3.0
-5.6

5.2
6.4
-13.2
-17.8

1,811.9
12.4
119.9
195.3
148.2
47.1
90.9
54.1
454.0
96.0
358.0
107.2
532.0
300.2
44.3
255.9
150.0
43.1

1,839.5
12.4
121.7
196.4
149.2
47.2
91.3
54.4
455.5
96.9
358.6
107.6
541.2
313.4
44.3
269.1
163.3
42.8

1,853.2
12.4
121.1
196.5
149.2
47.3
91.9
54.7
459.7
97.4
362.3
107.9
547.0
316.7
44.3
272.4
166.9
43.2

1,856.6
12.6
121.8
197.0
149.8
47.2
91.7
54.8
461.3
97.8
363.5
108.0
549.0
315.2
44.5
270.7
165.5
42.7

1,856.4
12.4
122.0
197.6
150.3
47.3
91.6
54.8
461.5
97.7
363.8
108.4
545.9
317.0
44.6
272.4
166.2
42.5

4.1
0.0
5.6
3.0
3.8
0.4
0.7
2.4
3.2
3.4
3.1
1.5
5.5
5.6
2.1
6.2
7.2
2.7

4.3
1.6
5.3
2.0
2.7
-0.3
1.1
2.0
4.9
6.3
4.6
-1.3
5.6
5.2
3.2
5.6
6.5
-0.0

16.63
12.75
11.21
17.89
10.09
12.86

16.54
12.30
11.31
17.36
10.36
14.03

16.65
12.28
11.43
16.90
10.75
13.20

16.68
12.51
11.38
17.34
10.74
13.05

16.48
12.62
11.53
17.35
10.62
13.04

1.7
6.6
2.6
5.3
3.8
13.4

2.2
2.7
1.7
-0.8
4.8
7.5

3,154,420
2,118,881
462,496
388,649
184,394
161,764
358,302
108,654
43,933
275,383
187,526
549,079
158,115
134,278

3,199,298
2,130,782
465,067
408,823
194,626
170,411
323,992
127,701
46,159
251,946
161,102
580,997
120,215
167,252

3,552,425
2,403,383
466,707
454,595
227,740
185,925
316,085
135,298
60,261
279,225
218,872
603,485
139,846
183,877

3,417,375
2,301,816
474,554
393,399
247,605
178,249
307,221
126,972
40,236
282,768
213,145
623,540
133,529
138,106

3,472,556
2,362,562
467,692
398,475
243,827
168,319
428,391
124,412
43,718
259,746
207,405
625,409
151,389
118,166

10.9
11.3
7.3
7.9
19.3
-0.3
34.7
8.7
-3.7
0.8
1.3
51.8
-0.0
5.3

8.3
7.8
7.9
8.8
14.8
10.8
4.8
14.2
-17.3
18.4
5.8
19.5
3.0
9.4

550,506
377,529
98,732
74,245

750,866
388,975
156,438
205,453

809,026
568,566
154,772
85,688

761,639
539,442
127,119
95,078

763,097
553,566
144,034
65,497

-21.8
2.5
-37.8
-68.0

3.3
2.5
1.4
11.6

4,422
3,053
69
1,300

5,302
3,167
57
2,078

5,153
4,101
50
1,002

5,216
4,149
62
1,005

4,622
3,930
70
622

-8.8
2.7
-47.8
-43.7

9.9
12.5
-23.7
5.5

1,333
970
27
336

1,827
1,207
52
568

1,529
1,155
25
349

1,768
1,410
26
332

1,721
1,332
28
361

18.0
28.0
-6.7
-6.7

24.2
27.0
-25.5
22.0

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
AR IZ ON A 'S ECON O MY

PAGE SEVENTEEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) E
Measures of Financial Institutions
Banks and S&Ls Combined ($mil) ASBD
Assets
Loans
Liabilities
Deposits
Equity Capital
Capital:Asset Ratio (%)

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

II
95

III
95

IV
95

I
96

II
96

4,200.5
8.5
17.3
8.8
26.4

4,234.9
9.5
18.4
8.9
24.3

4,267.8
9.2
18.2
8.9
22.9

4,298.9
9.2
18.0
8.9
20.8

4,328.4
9.4
18.2
8.8
19.7

3.0
10.8
5.2
-0.1
-25.2

3.2
2.4
3.3
4.3
-14.8

85,197
58,549
3,685
280
14,888
15,165

86,845
59,732
3,725
288
15,105
15,447

88,381
60,734
3,757
294
15,409
15,701

89,977
61,735
3,838
298
15,661
16,120

92,015
63,253
3,912
304
16,017
16,353

8.0
8.0
6.2
8.3
7.6
7.8

8.6
8.0
5.9
8.9
9.8
8.8

47,646
5,308
5,751
589
5,162
20,282
26,332

49,343
5,486
5,902
681
5,221
20,507
26,980

50,144
5,584
6,008
739
5,269
20,709
27,227

...
...
...
...
...
20,930
...

...
...
...
...
...
21,258
...

9.8
10.9
12.5
121.3
5.2
4.8
6.0

10.2
10.9
11.9
77.7
6.8
5.2
4.7

36,478
22,372
33,600
31,482
2,878
8.8

36,463
22,340
33,490
30,752
2,974
9.1

38,527
23,303
35,558
32,546
2,969
8.6

39,505
23,735
36,640
32,593
2,865
8.1

...
...
...
...
...
...

11.9
8.2
12.7
5.3
1.8
NA

5.5
6.6
5.7
3.0
2.9
NA

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100) ASU & BLS
Metropolitan Phoenix
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1992=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

II
95

III
95

IV
95

I
96

II
96

157.9
153.6
152.2
149.6

160.0
154.1
152.9
150.2

161.3
154.3
153.6
150.9

162.9
156.4
155.0
152.3

...
...
...
...

4.5
2.4
2.7
2.7

4.8
2.5
2.8
2.8

107.3
107.5

107.9
107.9

108.5
108.4

109.2
109.0

109.8
109.8

2.3
2.1

2.4
2.2

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA

Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners
Sources and abbreviations:
ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
ASU: Arizona State University, College of Business,
Research Centers
PAGE EIGHTEEN

JAN
96

FEB
96

MAR
96

APR
96

154.4
151.7

154.9
152.2

155.7
152.9

156.3
153.6

BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department
of Commerce
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department
of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems
Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission)
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

MAY
96
156.6
154.0

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
2.9
2.9

2.7
2.7

NSCCC: Nogales-Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce
PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service,
U.S. Department of Justice
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department
of the Treasury
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

TRAVEL AND TOURISM
JAN
96
Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation

1,087,177
76,814
208,660
801,703
258,038
56,911
179,251
21,876

FEB
96
1,024,680
130,862
246,649
647,169
400,015
92,873
272,078
35,064

MAR
96
1,473,388
211,271
447,286
814,831
482,388
97,407
334,341
50,640

APR
96

MAY
96

1,910,668
239,208
554,570
1,116,890
366,298
63,224
249,511
53,563

2,015,206
202,727
686,401
1,126,078
238,392
40,641
149,070
48,681

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
-0.9
-5.8
-3.2
1.6
-14.1
-16.6
-15.7
-6.4

0.1
2.2
3.0
-1.6
-7.1
-6.4
-9.8
6.0

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

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ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

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621-2155
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& FISCAL ANALYSIS....................ALBERTA CHARNEY
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PAGE NINETEEN