DCDC 2005-2006
Annual Progress Report
Decision Center for a Desert City
SES-0345945

Compiled by
Patricia Gober
Charles Redman
Bill Edwards
Nancy Jones
Michelle Schwartz

Submitted to the
National Science Foundation
Via Fastlane
May 26, 2006

Decision Center for a Desert City

DCDC 2006
Table of Contents

I. Introduction to DCDC

3

II. Highlights of Research Activities

6

III. Highlights of Research Findings

7

IV. Education and Outreach

11

V. Contributions

26

Participants 2005-2006

28

Principal Investigators/Directors:
Patricia Gober
Charles Redman
Executive Committee:
Patricia Gober
Charles Redman
James Buizer
Bob Bolin
William Edwards
Grady Gammage
Margaret Nelson
Peter McCartney
Tom Taylor
Staff:
Bill Edwards
Nancy Jones
Michelle Schwartz
Teams:
Decision Science Team
Climate Science
GIS & Decision Support Tools
Education & Human Resource Development
Science & Technology Policy Analysis
Vulnerability & Resilience Analysis

DCDC 2006
I. Introduction to DCDC
The Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC) is one of five research projects funded by the
National Science Foundation's Decision Making Under Uncertainty Initiative. Now in its second
year of operation, DCDC research, outreach, and educational activities are focused on water
management decisions in central Arizona in the face of uncertainties associated with rapid
population growth and urbanization, complex political and economic systems, inherent
variability in the desert climate, and the specter of global climate change. Although DCDC is, to
a certain extent, a regional case study based on the particular historical and political
circumstances of metropolitan Phoenix, its research products and decision support tools can be
generalized to rapidly growing desert regions worldwide. Testament to this is the example of
Christopher J. Graham, a 2005 DCDC REU student, who was recently awarded a Fulbright
Fellowship to adapt his work on drought indices in the American Southwest to arid regions in
Africa.
Central to DCDC's efforts to link knowledge production and real-world decision making is the
development of the DCDC water model (See below).

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The model serves to synthesize basic research and knowledge production, engagement with
stakeholders in the regional water management community, and the decision support tools that
link them together. In Year 2, we devoted considerable effort to producing a preliminary water
model that can be visualized and manipulated in Arizona State University's new Decision
Theater, an interactive and immersive space where environmental outcomes and model results
are visualized in 3-D.
The DCDC Water Model integrates three submodels: (1) a science model that predicts regional
water supply and demand, (2) decision-support levers that allow us to observe how model
outcomes change in response to exogenous conditions such as technological change and climatic
conditions and regional policy decisions, and (3) a stakeholder model that translates model
outcomes into real-world decisions. At the end of DCDC's funding cycle in 2009, we envision a
fully operational model that translates research findings about climate, decision making, and
human vulnerability into scientifically credible scenarios of the future, in which stakeholders use
the model for decision making, and decision support tools and research findings can be applied
in other high-growth, water-scarce regions.
Uncertainty factors into the model in a number of ways. First, there is uncertainty associated
with using historical conditions about physical and human processes to represent the future.
These conditions include the variability of runoff in the watersheds, the laws, agreements, and
regulations that govern the management of the water storage and delivery system, and patterns of
and trends in agricultural and municipal water use. Second, there is uncertainty associated with
the assumptions that are inherent in predictive scientific models. And third, the scenariobuilding effort involves generating a random series of outcomes and then examining outcome
spaces for the most robust scenarios–those that perform well across a wide range of future
conditions using many different values to assess performance.
Three sets of research questions form the core of DCDC's research program: (1) what are the
sources of regional climate variation and change and how do they influence water supply and
demand? 2) how do humans, operating as individuals, households, and communities, make
decisions using this scarce resource? and (3) what factors put individuals and communities at risk
from water shortage?
Climate Science
DCDC climate research examines the limits of variability in regional climate conditions and thus
determines the upper and lower bounds of the regional water supply. The study area includes the
entire Colorado River Basin as well as the watersheds of the Salt and Verde Rivers immediately
upstream from Phoenix. The urbanized area depends upon these systems for its annual supply of
surface water. Local climatic conditions are relevant to groundwater supplies and to possible
feedbacks between the urban heat island and water demand. Year 2 projects included studies of:




Drought Determinants for the Colorado River Basin
(Balling and Goodrich)
Hydroclimatic Indexing for Monitoring Drought
(Ellis, Garfin, and Balling)
Spatial Expansion of Phoenix's Urban Heat Island
(Brazel, Hedquist, Zehnder, Grossman-Clark, Gober, and Lee)
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

Impact of Urban Heat Islands on Water Use: The Case of Phoenix Metropolitan Area
(Guhathakurta)

Decision Science
DCDC decision science research explores human decisions about water use, including the
institutional arrangements that govern water allocations in the highly human-managed system of
central Arizona, factors that influence household water demand, and stakeholder priorities of and
expert perspectives on water resource management. This line of research acknowledges that the
results of climatic investigation do not flow directly into decisions about water use and
management, but are governed by human perceptions, modes of behavior, and societal
arrangements. Year 2 projects included studies of:





Factors Influencing Residential Water Consumption for the City of Phoenix, Arizona
(Wentz and Gober)
Systems Modeling Approach to Water Supply and Demand
(Lant and Gober)
Expert Perspectives on Science, Politics, and Water Management in Phoenix
(Peterson, Howe, White, White, and Corley)
Decision Research in Water Resources Management: A Multiple-objective, Multiplestakeholder Analysis
(Kirkwood and Keller)

Vulnerability Analysis
DCDC Vulnerability analyses address the historical, political, and economic factors that place
people and communities at risk from water shortage. Not everyone in the region is equally
susceptible to growth- and climate-induced constraints on water, and people will adapt
differently to these constraints. Research in this domain ranges from in-depth qualitative studies
of peri-urban communities with rampant growth and extremely limited water supplies to highly
quantitative agent-based modeling of household and regional responses to increasing price,
voluntary conservation campaigns, and mandated public policies that limit pool use and alter
landscaping practices. Year 2 studies included:



Peri-urban Growth, Water Conflicts, and Vulnerability in the Verde Watershed
(Collins, Bolin, Youngs, and Tluczek)
DesertWater: An ABM of Household Water Use in the Southwestern United States
(Griffin and Schmidt)

To further these research aims, DCDC collaborates with the Central Arizona-Phoenix Long
Term Ecological Research (CAP LTER) on two projects. The first is the development of the
second round of the Phoenix Area Social Survey (PASS). PASS is a one-hour Internet- or
telephone-based survey of 800 randomly selected Phoenix-area households. Respondents are
asked about their knowledge of and attitudes about a range of locally-relevant environmental
issues related to land use, air quality, and water resource management. Results from PASS
enable DCDC researchers to link public attitudes about drought, water shortage, and growth to
larger-scale environmental values; to anticipate public response to policies designed to adapt to
long-term water shortage; and to ascertain public values about pool use and landscaping. In
addition, DCDC will participate in a joint DCDC/CAP LTER summit on climate change in
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summer 2006. The goal is to integrate DCDC's social science expertise with CAP LTER's focus
on ecological and biophysical systems to investigate interrelationships between ecological and
human systems in response to climate change.
II. Highlights of Research Activities
Year 2 activities include studies that contribute to our model-building efforts. They further our
basic understanding of the physical and social determinants of water supply and demand; of the
social, economic, and political processes that govern water resource management at the
community and regional scale; and of human adaptation and response to vulnerability from water
shortage.
Year 2 projects included the following:
DCDC Water Model: The DCDC Water Model is an integrated collection of quantitative models
that represent water consumption and availability in central Arizona under scenarios of
population growth, climatic uncertainty, individual behavior, and policy choices. The model was
constructed using a systems dynamics framework in the software application PowerSIM. The
main components of the model consist of supply- and demand-side modeling. Preliminary results
have been displayed in the Decision Theater, where the model serves as a 'boundary object' that
can be used jointly by the scientific community and water managers for meaningful discourse
about future water policy.
Hydroclimatic Studies: The Colorado River is the source for approximately 40% of the regional
water supply. Climate studies have analyzed the determinants of drought in the Colorado River
Basin (Balling and Goodrich, published in Climate Change, 2006) using the
Palmer Hydrological Drought Index and have experimented with indicators of drought that are
more sensitive to and appropriate for arid conditions (Ellis, Garfin, Balling, and Graham,
submitted to Annals of the Association of American Geographers). The Salt and Verde River
Basins account for 30% of the region's water supply. Detailed models of the hydroclimatology
of this system provide input to the DCDC water model and reveal the sensitivity of water supply
to variations in temperature and precipitation provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios.
Urban Heat Island Studies: Rapid urbanization and rampant urban sprawl have created an
expanding and intensifying urban heat island effect in Phoenix. DCDC projects estimated the
spatial expression of the urban heat island (Hartz, Brazel, and Heisler, International Journal of
Biometeorology, 2005); predicted the magnitude and extent of the heat island under different
land-use policies, landscaping practices, and water conservation scenarios; and estimated the
effects of rising temperatures (magnitudes are greater than 11° F during clear and dry
atmospheric conditions) on residential water demand. The latter study was presented at the 2005
North American meetings of the Regional Science Association International in Las Vegas.
Decision Research Studies: Kirkwood, Keller, and Jones used a multiple-objective decision
modeling approach to create a comprehensive catalog of concerns identified by key stakeholders
for guiding water resource policy in central Arizona. Results were presented at the 2005 meeting
of the Institute for Operations Research of the Management Sciences in San Francisco. In
another study, expert perspectives were elicited on the successes of and challenges for Phoenix
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water management; the integration of science, politics, and social values in their decision
making; and strategies for representing, communicating, and managing uncertainty (White,
Corley, and White, submitted to Society and Natural Resources).
Residential Water Consumption Studies: Two types of water-use studies support our modelbuilding efforts. Wentz and Gober used least-squares and geographically-weighted regression to
identify the determinants of residential water demand in the City of Phoenix. Model coefficients
were used to estimate the effects of landscaping practices, pool use, and lot size on regional
water demand. Also under development is an agent-based model of household water use based
on socio-demographic characteristics such as race, age, income, and education using decision
rules about receptivity, sensitivity, and hierarchy (Griffin and Schmidt, in Agent 2005:
Generative Social Processes, Models and Mechanisms, 2005).
Phoenix Area Social Survey (PASS): DCDC investigators collaborated with CAP LTER
scientists on the development of the second round of PASS. Data collection is now underway
for 800 Phoenix-area households. The survey queries respondents on their knowledge of,
attitudes about, and behaviors toward a set of locally-relevant environmental issues, including
urban sprawl, air quality, the urban heat island, and water scarcity. Results will provide insight
into the interrelationships between concerns and conceptions of water scarcity, attitudes of water
conservation policies, and environmental behavior in terms of water use and landscaping
practices.
Visualization Studies: DCDC's water model is being adapted for presentation and manipulation
in ASU's Decision Theater, and thus it is important to determine whether exposure to 3-D
visualization affects problem formulation and decision making. Edsall and Larson conducted a
series of tests with students, educators, and policy makers to evaluate the influence of the
Decision Theater on the understanding of local water issues and common misconceptions.
Preliminary results show that exposure to 3-D visualization in the Decision Theater (as compared
to a two dimensional, flat screen in a classroom) had, in some cases, a significant effect on
problem formulation and hypothetical decision making. Results will be presented at the 2006
meeting of AutoCarto, the Cartography and Geographical Information Society, in Vancouver,
Washington.
Vulnerability Studies: This research examines near- and long-term, local and regional water
resource issues through analyses of seven rapidly growing Verde Watershed communities and
adjacent rural areas. The focus is on groundwater management in the context of rapid peri-urban
growth, including resource demands and climatic uncertainty. Unequal risk of water scarcity is
seen to arise from social, political, and economic processes that structure and constrain people's
daily lives in the context of particular environmental conditions.

III. Highlights of Research Findings
Drought Determinants: Balling and Goodrich (Climate Change, 2006) used principal
components analysis to independently assess the influence of various teleconnections on the
basin-wide and subregional winter season Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) and on
precipitation variations in the Basin. They found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
explains more variance in the PHDI than El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic
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Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the planetary temperature combined for the basin as a
whole. Altogether, the teleconnection indices accounted for only 19% of the variance in PHDI,
leaving large uncertainties in drought forecasting.
Drought Indexing: DCDC scientists developed a new drought index based on the hydroclimates
of the Colorado River Basin. The new index developed by Ellis et al. focuses on the difference
between the natural input of water, or precipitation, and the natural climatic demand for water, or
evapotranspiration. Comparisons between the new index and the popular Palmer Drought
Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) showed that the newly
developed index responds more quickly to short-term hydroclimatic changes than the PDSI. The
new index better represents drought severity than does the SPI by accounting for the effect of
temperature in the form of climatic demand for water. Measurement and monitoring of drought
in the Colorado River Basin is crucial to the Phoenix-area water supply because the Colorado
River contributes approximately 40% of the average annual supply and because legal agreements
regarding the use of the river dictate that Arizona's share will be the first to be curtailed in the
event of basin-wide shortfalls.
Urban Heat Island and Residential Water Demand: The urban heat island effect, the rise in
nighttime temperatures associated with large-scale urbanization, has raised temperatures by up to
11° F in Phoenix during clear and dry atmospheric conditions. DCDC scientists investigated
whether the spatial variation in summer nighttime temperatures resulting from the urban heat
island affect residential water use. Results indicate that an increase of one degree in nighttime
temperature (average daily lows in June) leads to an increase of 677 gallons in average annual
demand for water in single-family units in Phoenix, after accounting for other factors that also
lead to increased water use. Given that there were almost 780,000 single-family units in the
Phoenix area in 2000, each one-degree increase in temperature (induced by the heat island effect)
increases region-wide water consumption by 1,600 acre feet, or about .3% of total residential
consumption.
Determinants of Residential Water Consumption: Municipal water records at the census tract
level were obtained from the City of Phoenix and related to information from other sources about
lot size, the presence of pools, household size, and landscaping style. We used ordinary leastsquares regression to identify the determinants of single-family residential water use in Phoenix
in 2000 and geographically-weighted regression to determine whether the behavior of nearby
areas affects local water demand. Results substantiate the significance of household
characteristics (size), urban design features (lot size and pools), and landscaping practices (mesic
vegetation) on residential water demand and point to a strong spatial bias in water consumption.
Households tend to use water at a level comparable to their neighbors, irrespective of their
demographic and urban design features. Thus, planning decisions may have different effects in
different parts of the city. Model parameters will be used to estimate demand under different
urban-growth and planning scenarios.
Decision Research in Water Resources Management: We used a multiple-objective decision
modeling approach to create a comprehensive catalog of concerns identified by key stakeholders
for guiding water resource policy. Preliminary review of the data shows significant variation in
the concerns of stakeholders, with municipalities placing higher priority on water security while
environmental groups place higher value on factors that impact the natural/physical environment.
Most respondents had a fairly specific focus for their policy and decision interests, and these foci
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varied greatly across the range of stakeholders. Results suggest that water stakeholders will
interpret DCDC model results differently, depending upon the relative priority they place on
sufficiency of supply, environmental impacts, social-economic impacts, political impacts and
governance, health and safety, socio-economic impacts, and broader impacts that extend beyond
the capacity of any one relevant agency.
Expert Perspectives on Science, Politics, and Water Management: With the ultimate goal of
improving the interface between scientists, managers, policy makers, and citizens, we conducted
semi-structured, in-depth interviews with water managers from the Greater Phoenix area. Using
qualitative analysis, we constructed conceptual maps illustrating water managers' understandings
of key themes, including water supply, drought, growth, the role of government, science and
policy, and uncertainty and decision making. Most of those interviewed cited growth as a
challenge to Arizona's water future, but believed that the Phoenix area is well-equipped to
sustain further growth and tolerate potential droughts. Uncertainty factored highly in experts'
opinions, with most mentioning incomplete or inaccurate data on environmental variability to be
a key concern.
Vulnerability to Water Scarcity: Large-scale population growth in and urbanization of central
Arizona has increased the stress on water resources in peri-urban communities in the upstream
watershed of the Verde River. A team of DCDC scientists conducted interviews with water
managers and residents of six communities to identify their response to increasing water scarcity.
Their research is informed by the theories of political ecology, in which environmental change
and ecological processes shape, and are shaped by political and economic processes; and by
vulnerability analysis, which focuses on the differential ability of individuals and groups to
anticipate, cope with, adapt to, and recover from chronic or acute environmental hazards.
Preliminary results reveal that communities respond to water scarcity by seeking to expand their
water frontiers, purchasing water rights and pumping groundwater in more remote locations. In
making their own municipal water systems more secure, the larger, more urban communities
increase the vulnerability of outlying areas, raise the risk of scarcity for more remote
populations, and increase social inequalities.
Findings from Educational Activities
Water Education Provider Survey: Understanding how water education organizations interact
with each other provides insight into the information sharing structure of water educators. The
network of connections between organizations can be represented as a social system.
Results reveal that the dominant objective for water education across all types of organizations
(water providers, non-profits, governments, and private industry) is teaching about outdoor water
conservation and groundwater. Respondents eschewed advocacy objectives, participation in
public debates about growth and the region's water future, and meaningful discussion regarding
the use of reclaimed water. One respondent from a municipal water provider commented that the
public 'is very nervous about using [reclaimed water] and they want to know if anyone has ever
gotten sick or if anyone has ever died related to the use of reclaimed water and it's very hard to
find that information when you're just trying to Google for it.'
Pedagogical concerns related to the needs of or affecting the behavior of Spanish-speaking, lowincome, high-income, and geographically distant populations were common. Major challenges
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are the lack of content on drought, climate change, urban water systems, and low-water irrigation
use. These topics are at the core of DCDC's research program, and they suggest a pressing need
to translate research results into educational materials that are applicable across a wide range of
audiences.
Community of Undergraduate Research Scholars: The Community of Undergraduate Research
Scholars (COURS) Program included four REUs funded by DCDC. One of the goals of COURS
is to build student ability to think across disciplines and to consider the broader impacts of
research. Success is gauged in two ways: (1) comparison of a pre-test to two mid-year
assignments, and (2) comparison of the pre-test to a post-test. Results of these comparisons
reveal that COURS students improved their understanding of how their research is relevant to
other disciplines and to broader public and theoretical issues. Students also improved their
understanding of the broader impact of research outside their field of expertise.
Training and Development
DCDC funded four undergraduate students to participate in the Community of Undergraduate
Research Scholars (COURS) Program, an interdisciplinary program co-sponsored by the Barrett
Honors College and the Global Institute of Sustainability (GIoS) and supervised by Barrett
Honors College Associate Dean Margaret C. Nelson. COURS integrates undergraduate students
into ongoing research projects, provides an interdisciplinary environment that enhances crossdisciplinary communication and appreciation for the broader impacts of scientific work, and
results in concrete research products. All COURS students, including the four from DCDC,
prepared research posters for presentation at a capstone event on May 3, 2006, featuring an
outside speaker and widespread participation from DCDC, CAP LTER, and IGERT faculty. The
titles of the DCDC-related poster presentations are listed below:




The Effects of 3D Visualization on Lay Perspectives of Environmental Issues
by Matt Kruger*, Kelli Larson, Rob Edsall, and Jessica Block
Expert Perspectives of Science, Politics, and Water Management in Phoenix
by Arianne Peterson*, Peter Howe*, Margaret White, Dave White, and Elizabeth Corley
Towards an Understanding of Rural Water Perceptions and Micro-Politics in Cottonwood,
Arizona by Melanie Tluczek*, Bob Bolin, Tim Collins and Yolonda Youngs
* DCDC REU students

To date, 20 graduate students from the School of Life Sciences, the Center for Science, Policy
and Outcomes, and the Departments of Geography, History, Political Science, Psychology, and
Communications have participated in DCDC projects. To facilitate greater collaboration among
graduate students working on DCDC projects, we will require all research assistants to
participate in a one-credit graduate seminar, Community of Graduate Scholars, in Fall 2006 and
Spring 2007.
DCDC has two post-doctoral fellows associated with research projects. Timothy Collins, a recent
Ph.D. recipient from the ASU Department of Geography, works with the Vulnerability Team on
in-depth case studies of how peri-urban communities adapt to water scarcity. Seung-Jae Lee,
a Ph.D. from the Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering from the University of
North Carolina, specializes in environmental modeling, geostatistics, and data uncertainty. Lee
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recently joined the DCDC modeling team utilizing his expertise on studies of the urban heat
island and land use prediction.

IV. Education and Outreach
Education
Graduate Education: To date, 20 graduate students from the School of Life Sciences, the Center
for Science, Policy and Outcomes, and the Departments of Geography, History, Political
Science, Psychology, and Communications have participated in DCDC projects. To facilitate
greater collaboration among graduate students working on DCDC projects, we will require all
research assistants to participate in a one-credit graduate seminar, 'Community of Graduate
Scholars,' in Fall 2006 and Spring 2007. The purpose of the seminar is to bring together
graduate students working on sustainability and water issues and to build cross-disciplinary
dialogues and interdisciplinary perspectives. One goal of the seminar is to organize a poster
symposium for the 2007 AAAS meetings and include students from across the DMUU centers.
Undergraduate Education: In 2005-2006, DCDC funded four REU students who participated in
the University's Community of Undergraduate Research Scholars (COURS) program sponsored
by the ASU Barrett Honors College. Facilitated by DCDC investigator and Barrett Honors
College Associate Dean Margaret Nelson, COURS included students from DCDC, the
Southwest Consortium for Environmental Research and Policy (SCERP), the Urban Ecology
Integrative Graduate Education and Research Training (IGERT) program, the Biocomplexity
project and other NSF sponsored projects. The COURS students met weekly for
multidisciplinary discussions of research, participated in a range of research activities related to
their respective projects, and prepared research posters for presentation at a culminating event on
May 3, 2006, hosted by DCDC. More than half of these students will present their posters at a
national meeting. The COURS program epitomizes DCDC's goal of linking undergraduate
education to research and decision making in a collaborative andinterdisciplinary environment.
K-12 Education: The DCDC Education Team conducted a Water Education Provider Survey to
identify water education providers (WEPs) and to determine the audiences, content, goals, and
communications tools used by these local organizations. DCDC's K-12 education program aims
to enhance the activities of these groups and ideally will use their networks to disseminate and
test new learning tools and strategies. The response rate was 28.6% for individuals and 41.7%
for organizations, with 22 surveys being completed and returned from 20 different organizations.
Results of the survey indicate that existing providers use conventional methods of information
dissemination such as booths at community events, print media, television, newsletters, and
teacher workshops. Emphasis is on factual messages that promote water conservation. Existing
WEPs are disinclined to participate (or be seen to participate) in debate about water and lobbying
for water policy.
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On December 7, 2005, we hosted a Water Educators Forum where 19 participants discussed their
needs in relation to DCDC's research products. Particular interest was expressed in scientific
materials that connect land use change with the urban heat island and its effects on water
consumption, that create scenarios of the future based on drought on conservation practices, and
that employ GIS and satellite maps and images.
In conjunction with the University of Arizona's Water Resources Research Center and the Salt
River Project, the region's major water supplier, DCDC will host the Advanced Water Education
Workshop for approximately 30 formal and non-formal educators on July 17 to 19, 2006. The
goal is to create materials that enhance learning about climate change, drought, reclaimed water
and the effects of urban growth on water scarcity.

Outreach
Community Partners-Collaborative Research
Salt River Project: (Ongoing) SRP delivers nearly 1 million acre-feet of water to a service area
in central Arizona and operates an extensive water-delivery system that includes reservoirs,
wells, canals, and irrigation laterals. SRP has provided a wide range of information to DCDC
scientists, including hydrological data, public attitude surveys that reveal household perception
of drought and responsiveness to conservation messages, reports of water duties (usage rates)
associated with different land uses, water delivery data, and irrigation coverages. SRP
climatologists and water managers are among the most regular participants at the DCDC
Climate/Water Briefings and SRP representatives gave presentations and sparked discussion at
two monthly Water/Climate Briefings. SRP is also a partner with DCDC and UA's Water
Research Research Center on a summer 2006 workshop for teachers to be held at DCDC.
City of Phoenix: (Ongoing) DCDC collaborates closely with the City of Phoenix's Water
Services Department, sharing the results of different but complementary water modeling efforts.
In addition, the City has provided an immensely useful data set that includes municipal water use
by different types of users across census tracts between 1990 and 2005. City representatives
presented two DCDC monthly Water/Climate Briefings.
University of Arizona: (Ongoing) DCDC collaborates with three University of Arizona (UA)
research centers dedicated partly or wholly to water and climate research. Researchers from the
Arizona Water Resources Research Center (WRRC) participate in the Science and Technology
Policy/Boundary Organization team investigating public perception of drought and water
management. DCDC also partners with Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), part
of UA's Institute for the Study of Planet Earth on climate research. DCDC and UA's
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) are developing an online
digital water-information system. SAHRA's experience with a broad spectrum of stakeholders
(both public agencies and private organizations) enhances the relevancy of the project to decision
makers.
Arizona Water Institute: (Ongoing) The Arizona Water Institute is state-wide initiative to
facilitate cross-university research about water resource management. Focus thus far is on
developing the Arizona Hydrologic Information System.
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Northern Arizona University: (2005-06) DCDC co-sponsored the Arizona Water Summit, held at
NAU in August 2005, with the Center for Sustainable Environments. This event brought together
the state, local, and tribal water management community to discuss relevant science and policy
issues related to water resource management.
East Valley Water Forum: (2004-05) The East Valley Water Forum consists of tribal, public,
and private water agencies in the East Salt River Valley. They shared their groundwatermodeling output with DCDC so it could be integrated with agent-based models to produce
visualizations for the Decision Theater.
Arizona Department of Water Resources: (2004-05) A DCDC-sponsored intern worked 20 hours
per week at ADWR to retrieve data on the Phoenix area's water budget. The intern also
developed metadata about how ADWR created the water budget.
INTEL: (2004-2005) The DCDC/Intel partnership pursued three areas of mutual interest: 1)
sharing expertise and technology through education, training, seminars, and the Decision
Theater; 2) working with industrial-sector water users to promote conservation measures and
voluntary goals before mandatory water requirements take shape; and 3) researching the policy
and technology driving water management.
Lincoln Institute for Land Policy: (2004-05) DCDC partnered with the Lincoln Institute for Land
Policy on a land-use workshop that developed three K-12 education modules: (1) long-term
climate change in Phoenix, (2) GIS interfaces to explore the urban heat island, and (3) a thermalmapping activity.
Other Collaborators
The Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC) collaborates with ASU's Center for Science,
Policy and Outcomes (CSPO), an internationally known organization involved in studying the
linkages between science and technology and society. In fall 2006, CSPO will convene a
workshop of scientists actively studying water resource management in the Southwest with a
goal of identifying the major stressors on the Phoenix metropolitan area water supply. Workshop
results will be used to help DCDC develop research priorities and to provide regional water
managers with information regarding potential vulnerabilities.
DCDC is administered by and closely collaborates with ASU's Global Institute of Sustainability
(GIoS). GIoS serves as the bridge to other relevant NSF-sponsored projects, especially the
Central Arizona Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research (CAP LTER) project, the Urban
Ecology Integrative Graduate Education and Research Training (IGERT) program, the cross-site
Biocomplexity in the Environment project on Agrarian Landscapes in Transition, and the
Sustainability Partnership Enterprise. As GIoS expands, international researchers are being
asked to participate in its programs, including DCDC. In Summer 2006, a senior undergraduate
research student from York University (Ontario, Canada) will spend a month working on the
Southwest Water Information Project to assist with online interactive atlas development.
Founded simultaneously with DCDC, the Decision Theater at Arizona State University is a
learning and decision space in which the latest understanding of complex social, economic, and
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natural processes and their interactions are visualized. DCDC works closely with DT to translate
DCDC science and modeling into visualizations applicable for the general public and decision
makers. Underway currently in the DT is the development of a prototype for the DCDC Water
Model, including different climate-change and technological conditions as well as policies and
decisions about the nature of urban growth and the built environment.
DCDC and the CAP LTER partnered in the design and implementation of the second round of
the Phoenix Area Social Survey (PASS), a survey of 800 randomly selected Phoenix-area
households. The survey, which is currently in the field, asks respondents about their knowledge
of, attitudes toward, and behaviors about a set of locally-relevant environmental issues, including
urban sprawl, air quality, the urban heat island, and water scarcity. Results will allow DCDC
researchers to test hypotheses about the interrelationships among environmental knowledge,
attitudes and value systems, and ultimate behavior regarding water use and conservation
practices. Closer collaboration between DCDC and CAP LTER, ASU's two large urban
environmental research programs, offers the opportunity for integration of DCDC's inherently
social science approach to urban modeling with CAP LTER's more ecological approach. A
summer 2006 summit is planned to develop a research agenda to investigate human and
ecological adaptations to future climate change.
DCDC regularly co-sponsors lectures and symposia with other ASU research and academic
units. These events bring together individuals from industry and multiple academic disciplines to
explore and discuss topics such as robust decision making, historic perspectives of water in
societies, visualization in environmental policy, and climate change in human-dominated
systems.
Decision research at DCDC includes a partnership between L. Robin Keller (University of
California at Irvine Graduate School of Management) and ASU faculty. The multi-objective
decision analysis work performed in Year 1 is the foundation for developing decision-focused
evaluation metrics for use with the models that are being developed within DCDC.
The Community of Undergraduate Research Scholars (COURS) provides opportunities for
undergraduate students enrolled in the Barrett Honors College to contribute to DCDC research.
DCDC hosted a poster session highlighting the interdisciplinary work of more than a dozen
students. Faculty associated with DCDC, IGERT, the Southwest Consortium for Environmental
Research and Policy (SCERP), CAP LTER and other NSF-funded projects oversaw the research
presented.
DCDC is partnering with UA's Project Wet and the Salt River Project to host a summer teacher
training workshop, where 30 teachers from K-12 schools in the Phoenix Metropolitan area will
develop new learning materials based on local environmental issues such as water scarcity, water
recycling, and the urban heat island. The new learning materials will be based upon DCDC
research, data sets, and outreach activities.

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Community Partners-Personnel Exchanges
City of Tempe: (Ongoing) City of Tempe supplies household-water-use data for DCDC analysis.
Under DCDC's auspices and supervision, the Tempe Water Utilities Department will sponsor an
internship in 2006-07. The student will create a planning tool, such as a groundwater model or
GIS database.
City of Mesa: (2006-07) Under DCDC auspices and supervision, the City of Mesa Utilities
Department will sponsor an internship for an undergraduate student. The intern will be assigned
to work under a Water Resources Specialist in the Resources Division of the Utilities
Department to assist in the development of the Division's Reclaimed Water Master Plan.
AZ Groundwater Replenishment District: (2006-07) Under DCDC's auspices and supervision,
the Central Arizona Groundwater Replenishment District will sponsor an internship for
undergraduate students. The intern will serve on a team responsible for annual reporting
processes and provide assistance in establishing
and implementing a conservation grant program for the District.

Outreach Activities
DCDC's water/climate briefings continue to draw participants from the academic and practitioner
communities. Speakers in Year 2 included community partners and academic colleagues whose
topics served to increase the understanding of decision making processes in water resources
management. Five briefings were held in Year 2 with total attendance of nearly 300 individuals.


Tucson Turnaround & Beyond, was presented May 3, 2006 by David Modeer, Director of
Tucson Water. Modeer discussed water use in Tucson and comparative factors with the
Phoenix region.



A New Plan for Operations of the Colorado River Reservoirs: How the Basin States
Proposal Was Developed, was presented April 5, 2006 by Herb Dishlip of Herb Dishlip
Consulting. Dishlip discussed the 2006 agreement between the seven basin states on a
drought management plan.



Factors Influencing Water Resources Management, was presented March 1, 2006 by
Elizabeth Wentz, Ph.D. of ASU's Department of Geography and L. Robin Keller, Ph.D.
of the Paul Merage School of Business at the University of California, Irvine. Results of
DCDC research were presented. Wentz presented results of her work with Gober that
identified the determinants of residential water demand in the City of Phoenix. Keller
presented findings from a survey conducted with Kirkwood that identified stakeholder
values in decisions related to water management.



Salinity Issues in Arizona, was presented December 7, 2006, by Carol Erwin of the U.S.
Bureau of Reclamation. Erwin presented results of the Central Arizona Salinity Study,
and discussed implications for the future of the Phoenix region's water supply.

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

Colorado River Law: Key Points of Tension, was presented September 7, 2005, by
William Swan, attorney. Swan provided an overview of the Law of the River and the
ongoing litigation and pending legislation affecting Arizona's rights to the water supply.

DCDC also co-sponsored several lectures with one or more of the academic units at ASU. These
collaborations brought together individuals from industry and multiple academic disciplines to
explore and discuss topics such as robust decision making, historic perspectives of water in
societies, visualization in environmental policy, and climate change in human-dominated
systems. Titles of the lectures are listed below:


Implications of Climate Change for Human-Dominated Systems was presented April 13,
2006, by William Easterling, Professor of Geography and Earth System Science and
Director, Penn State Institute of the Environment, Pennsylvania State University. Cosponsors of the lecture were the Department of Geography and the Consortium for
Science, Policy and Outcomes.



3-D Tel Aviv Dynamics was presented February 9, 2006, by Daniel Czamanski of the
Department of City and Regional Planning, Technion Institute of Technology, Israel.
Czamanski is also the Director of the City Complexity Research Lab and Chairman of
Czamanski-Ben Shahar and Company. This lecture was co-sponsored by the School of
Planning and the Department of Geography.



The Virtual London Project was presented November 8, 2005, by Michael Batty, Director
of the Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London. This lecture
was co-sponsored by the Department of Geography.



Representation and Visualization in Environmental Policy was presented October 28,
2005, by Roopali Phadke and Steven Jackson. Phadke is an Assistant Professor of Policy
and Politics in the Department of Environmental Studies at Macalester College, and
Jackson is an Assistant Professor of Information in the School of Information at the
University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. Co-sponsors of the lecture were GIoS, the
Decision Theater, and the Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes.



Water and Empire in the U.S. and China: A Comparative View of Hydraulic Societies,
and The View from the Grand Canyon: Enlarging our Sense of History were presented
October 12 -13, 2005, by Donald Worster, Hall Distinguished Professor Chair in
American History, University of Kansas. These lectures were co-sponsored by the
Institute for Humanities Research and the Departments of Geography and History.



RAND's Approach to Robust Decision Making: Some Diverse Examples was presented
October 11, 2005, by Mark Bernstein, Ph.D., Senior Policy Researcher at the RAND
Corporation. This lecture was co-sponsored by the Decision Theater.



Robust Decision Making: Identifying Long-Term Water Resources Management
Strategies was presented October 5, 2005, by David Groves, consultant working for the
RAND Corporation and Evolving Logic. This lecture was co-sponsored by the Decision
Theater.
- 16 -



Shaping the Future was presented July 21, 2005, by Steven C. Bankes, computer scientist
at the RAND Corporation. This lecture was co-sponsored by the Decision Theater.

DCDC will launch the Southwest Water Information Project (SWIP), an online, interactive atlas
in mid-summer 2006. SWIP began as a collaborative effort with the University of Arizona's
SAHRA program as a regional water information system for cross-city analyses of water issues
in Phoenix and Tucson. The online atlas will identify the spatial characteristics of water
consumption along with climatic conditions, demographics, and temporal land use changes.

Dissemination of Research Projects and Results
Research findings are regularly presented to the local community, as well as to the international
academic community. Co-Director Gober regularly presents DCDC research goals and results to
community groups, students and other academic institutions. The Web site (http://dcdc.asu.edu)
is consistently updated to detail specifics of the project and provide materials from presentations,
meetings, and briefings. It also serves as a central repository for other DMUU project details as
presented at the December 15, 2005, Investigator's Meeting. Since August 2005, the DCDC web
site has seen a substantial increase in both the number of hits (increased 240%) and files returned
to users (increased by 260%). The amount of data transferred to remote users increased by
625%. Data transfer figures are actually much higher as data from the DCDC data repository are
not reflected in these figures. The average number of visits (from unique IP addresses) the site
receives on a monthly basis ranges from 1100 to 1800.

Community Outreach Presentations and Miscellaneous Activities
2005
Bolin, B., Youngs, Y., Tluczek, M., Collins, T., 2005. Drought, Rural Growth and Vulnerability
in the Salt Verde Watershed. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Arizona Planners
Association, Prescott, Arizona. September 27-29, 2005.
Brazel, A., 2005. Latest Urban Climate Research at ASU. Presented at the Greater Phoenix
Water Educators Forum, Tempe, Arizona. December 6, 2005.
Gammage, G., 2005. Arizona Technical Advisory Panel. Presented at the Urban Land Institute,
Tempe, Arizona. October 5, 2005.
Gammage, G., 2005. Competitiveness Forum, Arizona Association for Economic Development,
Phoenix, Arizona. December 8, 2005.
Gammage, G., 2005. Growth and Water. Presented at the Colorado River Water User's
Conference, Las Vegas, Nevada. December 15, 2005.
Gammage, G., 2005. Growth, Resources, and Water. Presented at the Association of Pacific
Coast Geographers, Phoenix, Arizona. October 19, 2005.
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Gammage, G., 2005. Panel Discussion: Groundwater Banking and Recharge. Presented at
SAHRA - Sustainability of Semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas, University of
Arizona, Tucson, Arizona. October 26, 2005.
Gammage, G., 2005. Phoenix and New Orleans. Presented to Tulane Architecture Student
Visitors, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona. November 7, 2005.
Gammage, G., 2005. Responsible Growth. Presented at the Responsible Growth Dinner
sponsored by Peggy Neely, Phoenix, Arizona. December 12, 2005.
Gammage, G., 2005. State Trust Land Reform. Presented at the Greater Phoenix Leadership,
Phoenix, Arizona. November 17, 2005.
Gammage, G., 2005. Water and Growth. Presented at the Nevada Water Resources Association,
Las Vegas, Nevada. October 14, 2005.
Gammage, G., 2005. Where is the Valley Going? Presented to Valley Leadership, Mesa,
Arizona. November 4, 2005.
Gammage, G., 2005. Young Leaders. Presented at the Urban Land Institute, Phoenix, Arizona.
October, 12, 2005.
Gober, P., 2005. Decision Center for a Desert City. Presented at the Graduate Student Brown
Bag, ASU Department of Geography, Tempe, Arizona. November 2, 2005.
Gober, P., 2005. Decision Center for a Desert City. Presented at the Graduate Student Brown
Bag, ASU Department of Anthropology, Tempe, Arizona. November 17, 2005.
Gober, P., 2005. Decision Center for a Desert City. Welcoming Address presented at the Water
Educators Forum, Tempe, Arizona. December 6, 2005.
Gober, P., 2005. Metropolitan Phoenix: Place Making and Community Building in the Desert.
Keynote address, presented at the Annual Meeting of the Association of Pacific Coast
Geographers, Phoenix, Arizona. October 17, 2005.
Grossman-Clarke, S., Zehnder, J. A., 2005. Remote Sensing Derived Land Use/Cover Data for
Urban Modeling in MM5 and WRF. Presented at the Fifth WRF Land Surface Modeling
Workshop, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado. September
13-15, 2005.
Guhathakurta, S., 2005. Simulating and Visualizing Phoenix Urban Futures with URBANISM
Modeling Environment. Presented at the Jornada Basin Long Term Ecological Research
site, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico. December 2, 2005.
Guhathakurta, S., Gaver, S., Gober, P., Grossman-Clarke, S., Zehnder, J., 2005. The Impact of
Urban Heat Islands on Water Use: The Case of Phoenix Metropolitan Area. Presented at
the North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, Las
Vegas, Nevada. November 11, 2005.
- 18 -

Keller, L. R., Kirkwood, C., Jones, N., 2005. Decision Research in Water Resources
Management: A Multi-Objective, Multi-Stakeholder Analysis. Presented at the The
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), San
Francisco, California. November 13, 2005.
Zehnder, J. A., 2005. Modeling the Urban Heat Island. Presented at the Arizona Planning
Association Conference, Prescott, Arizona. September 29, 2005.
2006
Collins, T., Youngs, Y., Tluczek, M., Bolin, B., 2006. Growth and Groundwater in Highland
Arizona: The Political Ecology of a Contested Resource. Presented at the Hawaii
International Conference on Social Sciences, Honolulu, Hawaii. May 31-June 3, 2006.
Gober, P., 2006. Decision Center for a Desert City. Presented to the Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Tempe, Arizona. April 24, 2006.
Gober, P., 2006. Demographic Trends and the Future of Phoenix. Presented at the National
Association of Real Estate Investment Managers, Phoenix, Arizona. March 7, 2006.
Gober, P., 2006. Facilitating Undergraduate Research in an Interdisciplinary Environment.
Keynote address presented at the Annual Meeting of the Council for Undergraduate
Education, DePaw University, Greencastle, Indiana. June 24, 2006.
Gober, P., 2006. Joining Physical and Human Geography to Re-imagine Urban Systems.
Presented at the University of Minnesota, Department of Geography, Minneapolis,
Minnesota. February 2, 2006.
Guhathakurta, S., 2006. The Impact of Urban Heat Island on Water Use: The Case of Phoenix
Metropolitan Area. Presented at the City of Phoenix Urban Heat Island Task Force,
Phoenix, Arizona. March 6, 2006.
Hedquist, B. C., 2006. Spatial Expansion of the Greater Phoenix Urban Heat Island: 1990-2004.
Presented at the 102nd Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers.
Chicago, Illinois. March, 2006.
Holway, J., 2006. Ensuring Sustainable Water Supplies for New Growth. Presented at the
American Planning Association National Conference, San Antonio, Texas. April 22-262006.
Kirkwood, C. W., Keller, L. R., Jones, N. S., 2006. Water Resource Management Priorities for
Central Arizona Water Experts. Presented at the ASU Decision Center for a Desert City
Water Briefing, Tempe, Arizona. March 1, 2006.
Larson, K. L., 2006. Attitudes Toward Water Resource Protection: Differences Between
Participants and Non-Participants of Place-Based Urban Ecosystem Research. Presented
at the Consortium Symposium, Portland, Oregon. January, 2006.

- 19 -

Larson, K. L., 2006. Human-Environment Research on Urban Ecology and Water Resources: A
Developing Agenda and Evolving Conceptual Frameworks. Invited colloquium
presentation at Portland State University, Department of Geography, Portland, Oregon.
January, 2006.
Larson, K. L., 2006. Human-Environment Research: Implications for Policy & Public Outreach
Panel: Environmental Research, Education, and Action: Make a Difference. Presented at
the Fulbright Scholar Enrichment Seminar. February, 2006.
Quay, R., 2006. Use of Scenario Planning to Address Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning,
Presented at the American Planning Association National Conference, San Antonio,
Texas. April 22-26, 2006.
Wentz, E., Gober, P., 2006. Factors influencing water consumption for the City of Phoenix,
Arizona. Presented at the Association of American Geographers, Chicago, Illinois.
March, 2006.
Zehnder, J., 2006. Phoenix in the Future: Sustainability in a Rapidly Urbanizing Region.
Presented at the Phoenix College Library Forum Discussion. February 9, 2006.

Publications and Products
Books
Gober, P., Metropolitan Phoenix: Place Making and Community Building in the Desert, bibl.
University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia, PA., (2006).
Articles Published
Allen, P., Torrens, P. M., "Knowledge and complexity", Futures, vol. 37, (2005), p. 581.
Anderies, J., Walker, B., and Kinzig, A.P., "Fifteen weddings and a funeral: Case studies and
resilience-based management", Ecology and Society, vol. 11, (2006), p. 21.
Batty, M., Torrens, P. M., "Modeling and prediction in a complex world", Futures, vol. 37,
(2005), p. 745.
Collins, T., "Households, forests, and fire hazard vulnerability in the American West: A case
study of a California community", Global Environmental Change B: Environmental
Hazards, vol. 6, (2005), p. 23.
Cumming, G. S., Cumming, D. M., Redman, C. L., "Scale mismatches in social-ecological
systems: Causes, consequences, and solutions", Ecology and Society, vol. 11, (2006), p.
14.
Grossman-Clarke, S., Zehnder, J.A., Stefanov, W.L., Liu Y. and M.A. Zoldak, "Urban
modifications in a mesoscale meteorological model and the effects on near surface
variables in an arid metropolitan region", Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol. 44,
(2005), p. 1281.
- 20 -

Hedquist, B. C., Brazel, A. J., "Urban, residential, and rural climate comparisons from mobile
transects and fixed stations: Phoenix, Arizona", Journal of the Arizona-Nevada Academy
of Science, vol. 37, (2006), p. 77.
Jacobs, K. L., Garfin, G. M., Lenart, M., "More than just talk: Connecting science and
decisionmaking", Environment, vol. 47, (2005), p. 6.
Killeen, P. R., "An alternative to null-hypothesis significance tests", Psychological Science, vol.
16, (2005), p. 345.
Killeen, P. R., "Replicability, confidence, and priors", Psychological Science, vol. 16, (2005), p.
1009.
Kinzig, A.P., Ryan, P., Etienne, M., Elmqvist, T., Allison, H., & Walker, B.H., "Resilience and
regime shifts: Assessing cascading effects", Ecology and Society, vol. 11, (2006), p. 20.
Redman, C.L., and Jones, N.S., "The environmental, social, and health dimensions of urban
expansion", Population and Environment, vol. October, (2005), p. 1.
Sanabria, F., Killeen, P. R., "Freud meets Skinner: Hyperbolic curves, elliptical theories, and
Ainslie Interests", Behavioral and Brain Sciences, vol. 28, (2005), p. 660.
Torrens, P. M., "Simulating sprawl", Annals of the Association of American Geographers, vol.
29, (2006), p. 248.
Torrens, P. M., Benenson, I., "Geographic automata systems", International Journal of
Geographic Information Science, vol. 19, (2005), p. 385.
Walker, B.H., Anderies, J.M., Kinzig, A.P., and Ryan, P., "Exploring resilience in socialecological systems: Comparative studies and theory development", Ecology and Society,
vol. 11, (2006), p. 12.
Walker, B.H., Gunderson, L., Kinzig, A.P., Folke, C., Carpenter, S., & Schulze, L., "A handful
of heuristics: Propositions for understanding resilience in social-ecological systems",
Ecology and Society, vol. 11, (2006), p. 13.
Walker, B.H., Kinzig, A.P., Anderies, J.M., and Ryan, P., "Introduction", Ecology and Society,
vol. 11, (2006), p. 1.
Articles in Press
Bush, J., Guhathakurta, S., Keane, J., Dworkin, J., "Examination of Phoenix regional water
supply for sustainability and economic carrying capacity", Natural Resources Journal,
(2006).
Garrick, D., Jacobs, K. L., "Water management on the Colorado River: From surplus to shortage
in five years", Southwest Hydrology, (2006).

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Hartz, D. A., Brazel, A. J., Heisler, G. M., "A case study in resort climatology of Phoenix,
Arizona, USA", International Journal of Biometeorology, (2006).
Killeen, P. R., "Beyond statistical inference: A decision theory for science", Psychonomic
Bulletin & Review, (2006).
Killeen, P. R., "The problem with Bayes", Psychological Science, vol. 17, (2006).
Kinzig, A.P., Ryan, P.,Etienne, M., Elmqvist, T., Allison, H., & Walker, B.H., "Resilience and
regime shifts: Assessing cascading effects", Special Issue in Ecology and Society, (2006).
Larson, E. K., Grimm, N. B., Gober, P., Redman, C. L., "The paradoxical ecology and
management of water in the Phoenix, USA metropolitan area", Ecohydrology &
Hydrobiology, vol. 5, (2006).
Torrens, P. M., "A geographic automata model of residential mobility", Environment &
Planning B, vol. 37, (2006).
Articles Accepted
Balling, R.C., Jr., and G.B. Goodrich, "Analysis of drought determinants for the Colorado River
Basin", Climatic Change, (2006).
Hartz, D., Prashad, L., Hedquist, B. C., Golden, J., Brazel, A. J., "Linking satellite images and
handheld infrared thermography to observed neighborhood climate conditions", Remote
Sensing of Environment (Urban Thermal Special Issue), (2006).
Torrens, P. M., "A geographic automata model of residential mobility", Environment & Planning
B, (2006).
Torrens, P. M., Nara, A., "Modeling gentrification dynamics: A hybrid approach", Computers,
Environment and Urban Systems, (2006).
Articles Submitted
Ellis, A.W., G Goodrich, and J.A. Skindlov, "An ensemble method for forecasting seasonal
precipitation: Winter variability on Arizona watersheds", Weather and Forecasting,
(2006).
Ellis, A.W., Garfin, G., Balling, R.C., and Graham, C.J., "A hydroclimatic concept for
monitoring drought derived from the climate of the Southwestern United States", Annals
of the Association of American Geographers, (2006).
Garrick, D., Jacobs, K.L., Garfin, G.M., "Decision making under uncertainty: Shortage,
stakeholders and modeling in the Colorado River Basin", Journal of the American Water
Resources Association, (2006).
Wentz, E., and Gober, P., "Factors influencing water consumption for the City of Phoenix,
Arizona", Water Resources Management, (2006).
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White, D.D., Corley, E.A., and White, M.S., "Water managers' perceptions of the science-policy
interface in Phoenix, Arizona USA", Society and Natural Resources, (2006).
Chapters
Holway, J.M., and Jacobs, K.L., "Managing for sustainability in Arizona, USA: Linking climate,
water management and growth,” bibl. McGraw-Hill, (2006). Chapter Submitted of
Collection: Mays, L., "Water Resources Sustainability"
Redman, C. L., "The urban ecology of metropolitan Phoenix: A laboratory for interdisciplinary
study,” bibl. Washington, D.C., National Research Council, 163-192, (2005). Chapter
Published of Collection: Entwisle, B., Stern, P. C., "Population, Land Use, and
Environment: Research Directions"
Torrens, P.M., "Agent-based models,” bibl. New York, CRC Press, (2006). Chapter In Press of
Collection: Warf, B., "Dictionary of Human Geography"
Torrens, P.M., "Geosimulation and its application to urban growth modeling,” bibl. London,
Springer-Verlag, 119-134, (2006). Chapter Published of Collection: Portugali, J.,
"Complex Artificial Environments"
Torrens, P.M., "Remote sensing as dataware for human settlement simulation,” bibl. New York,
John Wiley and Sons, 693-699, (2006). Chapter Published of Collection: Merrill, R. J.,
Hipple, J. D., "Remote Sensing of Human Settlements"

Theses and Dissertations
Collins, T., "The production of hazard vulnerability: The case of people, forests, and fire in
Arizona's White Mountains,” bibl. Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Geography,
Arizona State University, K. McHugh, advisor. Winner of the Gilbert F. White Award of
the Hazards Specialty Group of the AAG, (2005).
Graham, C. J., "Hydroclimatic indexing method for drought monitoring,” bibl. (2006) Fulbright
Award-winning Honors Thesis, Department of Geography, Arizona State University,
Tempe, AZ
Conference Proceedings
Edsall, R., Larson, K., "Decision making in a virtual environment: Effectiveness of a semiimmersive ‘Decision Theater’ in understanding and assessing human-environment
issues,” bibl. Cartography and Geographical Information Society, (2006). Submitted to:
"Proceedings of AutoCarto 2006, Vancouver, WA, June 25-28, 2006"
Griffin, W.A., and Schmidt, S.K., "Simulating decisions of water usage in uncertain times in the
Southwestern US: An ABM of strategies and population level actions,” bibl. Argonne
National Laboratory, The University of Chicago, (2005). Published of Collection: Macal,
C. M., North, M. J., Sallach, D. C., "Agent 2005: Generative Social Processes, Models,
and Mechanisms. October 13-15, 2005"
- 23 -

Jacobs, K. L., Colby, B., Meko, D., Nijjsen, B., "Enhanced water supply reliability through
improved predictive capacity and response,” bibl. American Geophysical Union, (2005).
Published of Collection: "American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA,
December 7, 2005"
Posters
Hartz, D. A., Hedquist, B. C., Prashad, L., Golden, J., Brazel, A. J., 2005; Linking satellite
(ASTER) images and thermography to observed neighborhood climate conditions for use
in urban heat island research. Association of Pacific Coast Geographers, Annual
Meeting. Phoenix, Arizona. October, 2005.
Balling Jr, R. C., Goodrich, G. B., 2006; Drought determinations for the Colorado River Basin.
Poster presented at the 8th Annual CAP LTER Poster Symposium, Global Institute of
Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, January 19, 2006. (Please visit
http://dcdc.asu.edu/research/DroughtDeterminants.pdf to view this poster).
Collins, T., Bolin, B., Youngs, Y., Tluczek, M., 2006; Peri-urban growth, water conflicts, and
vulnerability in the Verde watershed. Poster presented at the 8th Annual CAP LTER
Poster Symposium, Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe,
Arizona, January 19, 2006. (Please visit http://dcdc.asu.edu/research/vulnerability.pdf to
view this poster).
Ellis, A., Garfin, G., Balling, Jr., R., Graham, C., 2006; A hydroclimactic indexing concept for
monitoring drought. Poster presented at the 8th Annual CAP LTER Poster Symposium,
Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, January 19,
2006. (Please visit http://dcdc.asu.edu/research/DroughtMonitoring.pdf to view this
poster).
Guhathakurta, S., 2006; Impact of urban heat island on residential water use. Poster presented at
the 8th Annual CAP LTER Poster Symposium, Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona
State University, Tempe, Arizona, January 19, 2006. (Please visit
http://dcdc.asu.edu/research/impactofUHI.pdf to view this poster).
Hartz, D., Golden, J., Brazel, A., Hedquist, B., Kaloush, K., 2006; Case study of thermographic
observations of surface materials' cooling rates and neighborhood design in suburban
Phoenix, Arizona. Poster presented at the Sixth Symposium on the Urban Environment,
American Meteorological Society. Atlanta, Georgia. January, 2006.
Hedquist, B. C., Comparri, E., 2006; Spatial expansion of the greater Phoenix urban heat island
(1990-2004). Poster presented at the 8th Annual CAP LTER Poster Symposium, Global
Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, January 19, 2006.
(Please visit http://dcdc.asu.edu/research/UrbanHeatIsland.pdf to view this poster).
Kirkwood, C., Keller, L. R., Jones, N., 2006; Decision research in water resources management:
A multiple-objective, multple-stakeholder analysis. Poster presented at the 8th Annual
CAP LTER Poster Symposium, Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State
University, Tempe, Arizona, January 19, 2006. (Please visit
http://dcdc.asu.edu/research/waterresourcemanagement.pdf to view this poster).
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Kruger, M., Larson, K., Edsall, R., Block, J., 2006; The effects of 3D visualization on lay
perspectives of environmental issues. Community of Undergraduate Research Scholars
Poster Symposium, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, May 3, 2006. (Please visit
http://dcdc.asu.edu/COURS/kruger.pdf to view this poster).
Lant, T., 2006; A system dynamics model for water supply and demand in greater Phoenix.
Poster presented at the 8th Annual CAP LTER Poster Symposium, Global Institute of
Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, January 19, 2006. (Please visit
http://dcdc.asu.edu/research/watermodel.pdf to view this poster).
Lant, T., Wentz, E., 2006; A spatial decision support tool for regional water managers: scenarios
for predicting residential water consumption. Poster presented at the Decision Support
Systems Symposium, Tucson, AZ, May 4, 2006.
Larson, K. L., 2006; Geographic, social science & interdisciplinary perspectives on urban
ecology: A developing research agenda. Poster presented at the 8th Annual CAP LTER
Poster Symposium, Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe,
Arizona, January 19, 2006.
Larson, K. L., Edsall, R., Block, J., Kruger, M., 2006; Environmental awareness and perceptions
among lay and expert groups: Cognitive responses to three-dimensional visual
information displays. Poster presented at the International Conference on Society and
Natural Resources, Vancouver, BC, June, 2006.
Murphy, J. T., Kinzig, A. P., 2006; The Hohokam water management simulation: Collaborative
modeling of a complex coupled human/environmental system. Poster presented at the 8th
Annual CAP LTER Poster Symposium, Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State
University, Tempe, Arizona, January 19, 2006.
Peterson, A., Howe, P., White, M., White, D., Corley, E., 2006; Expert perspectives on science,
politics, and water management in Phoenix. Poster presented at the 8th Annual CAP
LTER Poster Symposium, Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University,
Tempe, Arizona, January 19, 2006. (Please visit
http://dcdc.asu.edu/research/expertperspectives.pdf to view this poster).
Peterson, A., Howe, P., White, M., White, D., Corley, E., 2006; Expert perspectives of science,
politics, and water management in Phoenix. Poster presented at the Community of
Undergraduate Research Scholars Poster Symposium, Arizona State University, Tempe,
AZ, May 3, 2006. (Please visit http://dcdc.asu.edu/COURS/peterson.pdf to view this
poster).
Saltz, C., Elser, M., Michel, K., Cutts, B., 2006; Water education provider survey results. Poster
presented at the 8th Annual CAP LTER Poster Symposium, Global Institute of
Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, January 19, 2006. (Please visit
http://dcdc.asu.edu/research/Water%20Education.pdf to view this poster).
Tluczek, M., Bolin, B., Collins, T., Youngs, Y., 2006; Towards an understanding of rural water:
Perceptions and micro-politics in Cottonwood, Arizona. Poster presented at the
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Community of Undergraduate Research Scholars Poster Symposium, Arizona State
University, Tempe, AZ, May 3, 2006. (Please visit
http://dcdc.asu.edu/COURS/tluczek.pdf to view this poster).
Wentz, E., Gober, P., 2006; Factors influencing residential water consumption for the city of
Phoenix, Arizona. Poster presented at the 8th Annual CAP LTER Poster Symposium,
Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, January 19,
2006. (Please visit http://dcdc.asu.edu/research/Residentialwateruse.pdf to view this
poster).
Zoldak, M., Lemar, S., Jensen, R., Hutchins, J., 2006; Workflows: GIS data to a visualization
environment. Poster presented at the 8th Annual CAP LTER Poster Symposium, Global
Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, January 19, 2006.
Technical Reports
Taylor, T., A statistical-temporal analysis of Phoenix Water Data from 2000.
http://math.asu.edu/~tom/statsreport/Report.html.

V. Contributions
Contributions within Discipline:
DCDC provides a framework for nourishing interdisciplinary research and training for graduate
students. Although original contributions will result from disciplinary research, DCDC's real
value added is in providing an intellectual environment and social network that makes it possible
to transcend disciplinary boundaries and ask larger questions about the sustainability of urban
environmental systems, about decision making in the face of risk and uncertainty, and about
human vulnerabilities in the face of resource scarcity.
At the core of these contributions are integrative modeling efforts and decision support tools.
Our agent-based model simulates water use in the face of media conservation campaigns and
emerging water markets. The model uses the products of our disciplinary research about
residential water use, and its results feed into our larger systems dynamics model of water supply
and demand. The latter integrates what we have learned about the sensitivity of our water supply
to climate change, the sensitivity of demand to the urban heat island, and public attitudes about
policy decisions regarding recycled water, pool use, and landscaping choices.
Contributions to Education and Human Resources:
DCDC provides a framework for training graduate students, nourishing interdisciplinary projects
and contributing to the fields of geography, decision research, vulnerability analysis, and agentbased modeling. Our project is also committed to engaging undergraduate students and K-12
teachers, community organizations, government agencies, and the general public in our
interdisciplinary investigation of climate change and human decision making. Graduate students
are drawn from a wide range of disciplines, including geography, psychology, political science,
family science, communications, plant biology, and microbiology.
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Contributions to Resources for Research and Education:
DCDC's setting within a large public institution enhances its ability to leverage research and
outreach programs for educational benefit. To date, 20 graduate students have been engaged in
DCDC research programs. DCDC is a founding partner and collaborator in the university's new
Community of Undergraduate Research Scholars (COURS) Program. Preparation of the DCDC
proposal provided the initial impetus for this innovative program, which integrates undergraduate
students into research.
DCDC's close collaboration with the Decision Theater (DT) offers myriad opportunities to link
research and education. The DT is not only a setting to view visualizations but also a laboratory
for studying and engaging decision makers. We anticipate examining the way research and
educational infrastructure melds together in the DT.
Contributions Beyond Science and Engineering:
DCDC's core mission is to produce the scientific understanding and support tools that will lead
to better water decision making and a more sustainable future for Phoenix, the fastest-growing
large metropolitan area in the United States. Results and modeling products can be adapted to
other regions experiencing rapid growth, water scarcity, and climatic uncertainty.

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DCDC 2005 Annual Report – Appendix A
Participants 2005-2006
Principal Investigators/Project Directors
Patricia Gober, Geography
Charles L. Redman, Global Institute of Sustainability
Co-Principal Investigators
Bob Bolin, Anthrolpology
Grady Gammage, Jr., Morrison Institute for Public Policy
Thomas Taylor, Mathematics and Statistics
Senior Personnel: Core Scientists
John Anderies, School of Life Sciences
Brad Armendt, Philosophy
Richard Aspinall, Geography
Robert Balling, Geography
Anthony Brazel, Geography
Elizabeth Corley, School of Public Affairs
Robert Edsall, Geography
Andrew Ellis, Geography
Monica Elser, Global Institute of Sustainability
Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS, University of Arizona
Corinna Gries, Global Institute of Sustainability
William Griffin, Family & Human Development
Suzanne Grossman-Clarke, Global Institute of Sustainability
Subhrajit Guhathakurta, School of Planning
Ed Hackett, Anthropology
Sharon Harlan, Anthropology
James Holway, Global Institute of Sustainability
Kathy Jacobs, SAHRA, University of Arizona
Donald Keefer, Supply Chain Management
L. Robin Keller, UC-Irvine Graduate School of Management
Peter Killeen, Psychology
Ann Kinzig, School of Life Sciences
Craig Kirkwood, Supply Chain Management
Michael Kuby, Geography
Tim Lant, Mathematics and Decision Theater
Kelli Larson, Geography and Global Institute of Sustainability
Peter McCartney, Global Institute of Sustainability
Joan McGregor, Philosophy
Rob Melnick, Morrison Institute for Public Policy
Margaret Nelson, Barrett Honors College
Anshuman Razdan, Partnership for Research in Spatial Modeling
Jeremy Rowe, Information Technology
Charlene Saltz, Global Institute of Sustainability
Paul Torrens, Geography
William Verdini, College of Extended Education
Elizabeth Wentz, Geography
Dave White, School of Community Resources and Development
Joseph Zehnder, Geography
Senior Personnel: Managers
Bill Edwards, Executive Administrator
Postdoctoral Research Associates
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David Casagrande, Global Institute of Sustainability
Timothy Collins, Decision Center for a Desert City
Seung-Jae Lee, Decision Center for a Desert City
Other Collaborators
James Buizer, Office of Sustainability Initiatives
John Crittenden, Civil & Environmental Engineering
Michael Crow, President
Chris Lukinbeal, Geography
Daniel Sarewitz, School of Life Sciences
Research Technical Personnel
Jessica Block, Decision Theater
Aashish Chaudhary, Decision Theater
Netra Chhetri, Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes
Charlie Collins, Decision Theater
Deirdre Hahn, Decision Theater
Jiuxiang Hu, Decision Theater
Jana Hutchins, Global Institute of Sustainability
Kade Hutchinson, Decision Theater
Shea Lemar, Information Technology
Wayne Porter, Global Institute of Sustainability
Nancy Selover, Geography
Barbara Trapido-Lurie, Geography
Michael Zoldack, Global Institute of Sustainability
Public Outreach Personnel
Nancy Jones, Communications Manager
Research Support Personnel
Nikol Grant, Global Institute of Sustainability
Karen Gronberg, Global Institute of Sustainability
Lauren Kuby, Global Institute of Sustainability
Michelle Schwartz, Administrative Assistant
Graduate Research Associates
Suresh Ayyalsamy, Family and Human Development
Neil Barton, Geography
Erin Comparri, Global Institute of Sustainability
Jagadeesh Chirumamilla, Global Institute of Sustainability
Bethany Cutts, School of Life Sciences
Stephanie Deitrick, Geography
Chris Graham, Geography
Annie Gustafson, History
Shannon Gysberg, Geography
Brent Hedquist, Geography
Kim Michel, School of Life Sciences
Mark Neff, School of Life Sciences
Jamie Patterson, Geography
Shana Schmidt, Family and Human Development
Cheryl Sexton, Family and Human Development
Subramanian Swaminathan, Geography
Michael Tschudi, Geography
Margaret White, School of Life Sciences
Yolanda Youngs, Geography
Other Grads
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Community of Undergraduate Research Scholars (COURS)
Malaya Fletcher, Global Institute of Sustainability
Peter Howe, Geography
Matt Kruger, Political Science
Arianne Peterson, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Melanie Tluczek, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Other Undergrads
Adam McDaniel, Global Institute of Sustainability
Michelle Rupp, Political Science
Rosanne Servis, English
Community Partners
Michael Ellegood, Maricopa Flood Control District
Mitchell Haws, Bureau of Reclamation
John Hetrick, Salt River Project
Ray Quay, City of Phoenix
Dallas Reigle, Salt River Project
Salt River Project
City of Phoenix
East Valley Water Forum
Arizona Department of Water Resources
Intel
University of Arizona
Lincoln Institute for Land Policy

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